从今年一季度情况看，Wind数据显示，截至1月8日，各地披露一季度计划发行的地方债券总规模约 20862亿元，超过2万亿元关口。从地区看，四川、山东、云南、湖南等7个地方一季度计划发行规模超 过1000亿元，其中四川计划发行1887亿元、山东计划发行1724.81亿元、云南计划发行1451.36亿元，位 列前三位。 "今年是'十五五'开局之年，各地均持续加力政府投资，有效发挥更加积极的财政政策作用，加快地方 政府债券发行进度，有力推进'两重''两新'和新兴产业布局。"吉林省财政科学研究所研究员张依群在接 受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 "一季度各地拟发行地方债券超2万亿元，是今年更加积极的财政政策靠前发力的具体体现。"陕西巨丰 投资资讯有限责任公司投资顾问总监郭一鸣也对记者分析，当前计划发行规模处于历年同期较高水平， 且实际发行规模有望进一步增加，能为年初经济稳定运行提供有力支撑。从地区分布看，四川、山东等 经济大省计划发行规模居前，有望发挥经济大省挑大梁的作用。 据中国债券信息网信息，1月8日，宁波发行一批地方债券，包括10亿元一般债券以及243.72亿元专项债 券。 郭一鸣分析，从债券类型看，新增专项债券 ...

2026年地方政府债券发行也已经启动。 2025年地方政府债券发行已收官，发债规模创下历史新高。 根据中诚信国际研究院数据，2025年全年全国发行地方政府债券约10.3万亿元，同比增长5.2%。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞告诉第一财经，这是年度地方政府债券发行规模首次突破10万亿元。2025年地方政府债券发行呈 现多个亮点，比如，去年4.6万亿元新增专项债券使用范围进一步拓宽，对房地产相关项目的支持力度明显加大，以稳定楼市 等。去年，超10万亿地方政府债券拉动投资，惠民生、补短板，推动隐性债务风险化解，从而稳住经济大盘。 "为推动今年经济社会平稳运行，预计2026年地方政府债券发行规模会继续超过10万亿元，并且适度加快发债进度，推动项目尽 早开工建设，发挥债券稳投资、补短板等效应。"中央财经大学教授温来成告诉第一财经。 10万亿资金用在哪 为了稳投资、稳楼市和支持地方政府化解隐性债务，2025年初国家将地方政府新增债券限额提高至5.2万亿元，并在四季度又额 外增加0.5万亿元地方政府债券发行额度。中央此前安排的10万亿元隐性债务置换计划持续落地，也使得再融资债券发行规模维 持高位。 中诚信国际研究院数据显示， ...

地方明年尽早发债可以推动一些重大项目尽早开工建设，这将为明年经济增长奠定良好基础，确保"十 五五"开好局。 为了稳经济，地方政府正着手明年初发行政府债券筹资支持重大项目建设等，目前预计一季度筹资规模 已超过1万亿元。 第一财经梳理各地财政部门公开信息发现，截至12月22日，至少有四川、江苏、江西、贵州等14个省市 （自治区、直辖市、计划单列市）已经公开了明年一季度或1月当地政府债券发行计划，累计发行规模 近1.2万亿元。 中央财经大学教授温来成告诉第一财经，从往年来看，提前下达地方政府下一年债务限额从而尽早发债 是常规动作。但是今年前11个月全国固定资产投资增速出现下降（-2.6%），其中基建投资增速也有所 下滑，这比较少见。中央此时提出推动投资止跌回稳，且2026年又是"十五五"开局之年，地方明年尽早 发债可以推动一些重大项目尽早开工建设，这将为明年经济增长奠定良好基础，确保"十五五"开好局。 当前地方财政收支矛盾较大，重大项目建设资金比较依赖地方政府发债。为了防控地方政府债务风险， 当年地方政府新增发债总额需要全国人大在每年3月份全国两会期间批准，而这又会使得地方发债集中 在下半年。 为了加快地方政府债券 ...

Core Insights - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks, with a total issuance of approximately 91,062 billion yuan in local government bonds in the first ten months of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of about 23% [3][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - The issuance of local government bonds has accelerated, particularly in the first half of the year, with a notable decline in issuance from July onwards, culminating in approximately 5,600 billion yuan in October, slightly above January's issuance [3][5]. - Of the 91,062 billion yuan borrowed, around 60% was allocated to repay old debts, while approximately 40% was directed towards major project construction [5][7]. - The new local government bonds issued included about 47,000 billion yuan in new bonds (up 2% year-on-year) and 44,000 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (up 58% year-on-year), primarily aimed at repaying existing debts [5][7]. Group 2: Special Bonds and Project Funding - A total of approximately 12,500 billion yuan in special new bonds was issued, specifically for resolving local government hidden debt and settling overdue payments to enterprises, indicating a focus on debt repayment [7][8]. - The majority of new special bonds were utilized for significant public projects, with about 27% allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, 18% to transportation infrastructure, and 16% to land reserves [8]. Group 3: Debt Management and Risk Control - As of September 2025, the total local government debt stood at 536,995 billion yuan, remaining within the approved debt limit of 579,874.3 billion yuan, indicating that local government debt risks are generally manageable [9]. - In the first three quarters of the year, local governments repaid 23,863 billion yuan in principal and paid 11,191 billion yuan in interest on bonds, demonstrating the ability to meet debt obligations [9].

Core Points - The Ministry of Finance reported that in July 2025, a total of 703.2 billion yuan in new local government bonds were issued, including 86.3 billion yuan in general bonds and 616.9 billion yuan in special bonds [1] - The total issuance of local government bonds in July reached 1,213.5 billion yuan, with 344.9 billion yuan in general bonds and 868.6 billion yuan in special bonds [1] - From January to July 2025, the total issuance of new local government bonds amounted to 3,315.9 billion yuan, with 538.3 billion yuan in general bonds and 2,777.6 billion yuan in special bonds [2] Debt Repayment and Interest Payments - In the first seven months of 2025, local government bonds had a principal repayment of 1,478 billion yuan, with 1,282.5 billion yuan from refinancing bonds and 195.5 billion yuan from fiscal funds [3] - The interest payments for local government bonds in the first seven months totaled 831.4 billion yuan, with 118.3 billion yuan paid in July alone [3] Debt Limits and Balances - The national local government debt limit for 2025 is set at 57,987.43 billion yuan, with general debt limited to 18,068.92 billion yuan and special debt to 39,918.50 billion yuan [3] - As of the end of July 2025, the total local government debt balance was 52,762.7 billion yuan, including 17,248.3 billion yuan in general debt and 35,514.4 billion yuan in special debt [3] - The average remaining maturity of local government bonds is 10.3 years, with an average interest rate of 2.90% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Local governments in China have significantly increased their borrowing this year to stabilize the economy and mitigate risks, with a record issuance of local government bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - In the first seven months of this year, approximately 67,037 billion yuan of local government bonds were issued, marking a year-on-year increase of about 60% [1]. - More than half of the bond proceeds are allocated to repay old debts, while nearly half is invested in major project construction [1]. - Of the 67,037 billion yuan issued, about 34,000 billion yuan were refinancing bonds, up 65% year-on-year, and approximately 33,000 billion yuan were new bonds, increasing by about 55% [1][2]. Group 2: Refinancing and Debt Management - Refinancing bonds are primarily used for "borrowing new to repay old" debts, addressing the significant fiscal imbalance faced by local governments [2]. - The central government initiated a plan to replace hidden debts with local government bonds, with a total of 10 trillion yuan allocated for this purpose, of which 6 trillion yuan is through refinancing bonds [2]. Group 3: Project Funding and Special Bonds - New bonds are mainly directed towards major public welfare projects to stabilize investment and address shortfalls [3]. - In the first seven months, approximately 28,000 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, accounting for over 60% of the total annual issuance target of 44,000 billion yuan [3]. - A significant portion of the new special bonds, around 8,000 billion yuan, is earmarked for resolving hidden debt issues and settling overdue payments to enterprises [3][4]. Group 4: Infrastructure Investment - About 26.37% of the new special bond funds are allocated to municipal and industrial park infrastructure, while 17.63% is directed towards transportation infrastructure [10]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has surged, with over 2,600 billion yuan issued in the first seven months, aimed at recovering idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [10]. Group 5: Future Expectations and Debt Management - The central government has emphasized accelerating the issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency [11]. - Experts predict that local governments will complete the issuance of 44,000 billion yuan in new special bonds by the end of October, with a focus on increasing project initiation rates [11]. - As of June 2025, the total local government debt is projected to be 51.95 trillion yuan, remaining below the debt ceiling of approximately 57.99 trillion yuan [12].

Group 1 - Bonds are debt securities issued by governments, financial institutions, and corporations to raise funds, promising to pay interest at a certain rate and repay the principal under agreed conditions [1] - The most common types of bonds include fixed-rate bonds, floating-rate bonds, and zero-coupon bonds, which can be traded in the market, forming a bond market [1] - Government bonds are issued to cover government expenditures, invest in public works, and manage fiscal deficits, with investors receiving interest during the holding period and principal at maturity [1] Group 2 - Different types of government bonds include national bonds, special national bonds, ultra-long special national bonds, special bonds, general bonds, and refinancing bonds, each with unique characteristics regarding issuance, purpose, and management [2] - National bonds are issued by the central government to raise fiscal funds, typically to cover deficits or invest in public infrastructure and key projects [3] - Special national bonds are issued for specific policies and purposes, not suitable for ordinary investors, and do not require budget arrangements for repayment [4] Group 3 - Ultra-long special national bonds have a maturity of over 10 years and are used for long-term strategic projects, with a planned issuance scale of 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025 for major strategic implementations and key area security capability construction [5] - Local government bonds are issued by local governments to raise funds for local construction, categorized into general and special bonds, with the latter being used for specific projects with expected returns [6][9] - General bonds are issued to cover public fiscal deficits, while special bonds are for projects with certain returns, repaid through corresponding government fund revenues [9] Group 4 - Refinancing bonds are issued to raise funds for repaying existing debts and adjusting debt structures, with a focus on repaying old debts rather than funding new projects [9][10] - Special refinancing bonds have evolved to allow funds to be used for repaying existing local debts, including hidden debts, thus becoming an important tool for local debt management [10]