宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 5 月 18 日 周度金融市场跟踪 本周全球股市普遍上涨，债市收益率震荡上行 （ 5 月 12 日 -5 月 16 日） chenxi.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525010002 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：郭军 (8610)66229081 jun.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519070001 证券分析师：李晨希 ◼ 股票方面， 本周受中美谈判顺利影响，A 股整体呈现上涨，但大小盘股日内走势有 所分化。全周累计看，沪深 300 上涨 1.1%、中证 1000 下跌 0.2%、中证 2000 上涨 1.0%，这是连续第 5 周上涨。港股恒生指数上涨 2.1%，恒生科技指数上涨 2.0%。行 业方面，本周 31 个一级行业指数 20 个收涨，9 个收跌。美容护理、非银金融和汽车 领涨；计算机和国防军工领跌。周内看，周一（5 月 12 日）凌晨新华社发布新闻中美 经贸高层会谈取得了实质性进展，达成了重要共识。当天市场超 4 ...

Group 1 - Huawei is set to launch the HarmonyOS foldable laptop during the nova 14 series and HarmonyOS computer product launch event on May 19 [1] - The China Real Estate Association will hold the "Establishment Conference of the Business Travel Branch of the China Real Estate Association and the 2025 Commercial Real Estate Development Conference" in Beijing on June 12 [2] - Following the mutual tariff reductions between the US and China, container shipping bookings from China to the US have surged nearly 300% [3] Group 2 - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.35%. The Hang Seng Index declined by 0.25%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.62% [4]

Group 1 - European stock markets have retreated after four consecutive days of gains, with the German DAX index showing a short-seller sentiment close to 80% [1] - Gold prices have dropped significantly, approaching the $3150 mark, while bullish sentiment remains high for several consecutive days [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 42% and bearish sentiment of 58% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 27% and bearish sentiment of 73% [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment of 82% and a bearish sentiment of 18% [3] - The Dow Jones Index shows a bullish sentiment of 62% and bearish sentiment of 38% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index has a bullish sentiment of 70% and bearish sentiment of 30% [3] - The German DAX 40 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 24% and bearish sentiment of 76% [3] Group 3 - The Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 33% and bearish sentiment of 67% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 80% and bearish sentiment of 20% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 36% and bearish sentiment of 64% [3] - The GBP/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 22% and bearish sentiment of 78% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair shows a bullish sentiment of 30% and bearish sentiment of 70% [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 62% and bearish sentiment of 38% [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a bullish sentiment of 85% and bearish sentiment of 15% [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [4] - The AUD/JPY pair shows a balanced sentiment with 53% bullish and 47% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [4] - The NZD/USD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 59% and bearish sentiment of 41% [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 35% and bullish sentiment of 65% [4] - The USD/offshore RMB pair shows a strong bearish sentiment of 20% and bullish sentiment of 80% [4]

Group 1 - The joint statement from the US-China Geneva trade talks indicates that the US will modify tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending a 24% tariff for the first 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff [1] - China will reciprocate by suspending a 24% tariff on US goods for the first 90 days and will cancel additional tariffs as per its announcements [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 6%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by nearly 3% following the announcement, while gold prices fell by 3% to below $3230 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3369.24 points, up 0.82%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.72% to 10301.16 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.63% to 2064.71 points [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.3084 trillion yuan, an increase of 116.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - Most industry sectors saw gains, with aerospace and shipbuilding sectors experiencing significant increases, while precious metals sector faced declines [5]

Group 1 - The Saudi stock market index closed down 0.64% at 11,671.58 points, with a cumulative decline of 2.94% in April [1] - Saudi Aramco shares fell 1.17% to 25.35 SAR, with a total drop of 5.23% in April, reaching a low of 24.60 SAR on April 7 [1] - The Albilad Southern Eastern MSCI Hong Kong China Stock ETF listed in Saudi Arabia rose 0.39% to 10.23 SAR, but experienced a cumulative decline of 3.40% in April, hitting a low of 8.83 SAR on April 8 [1] Group 2 - The Qatar stock exchange index increased by 2.22% after a significant drop at the beginning of the month, showing a trend of upward movement [1] - The Kuwait stock exchange's price return index decreased by 0.84% [1] - The EGX 30 index of the Egyptian stock exchange rose by 0.99% [1] Group 3 - The Dubai Financial Market Composite Index increased by 3.81% [2] - The Abu Dhabi Securities Market Composite Index rose by 2.14% [2]

智通财经4月29日电，日本股市今日休市。韩国Kospi指数开盘涨0.06%。 ...

Group 1 - The core challenges facing the economy include the restructuring of global trade, deep adjustments in the real estate market, and long-term pressure from insufficient domestic demand [1] - 68% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate in Q1 2025 will be between 5.0% and 5.2%, while 24% expect it to be between 4.7% and 4.9% [3][4] - The stability of wage and property income is crucial for residents' spending willingness, with income being the primary influencing factor for consumption at 81% [1][6] Group 2 - Economists emphasize the need for macroeconomic policies to balance "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks," with a stronger focus on growth while also addressing risk prevention [1][14] - The impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to create significant challenges for labor-intensive industries and consumer electronics, necessitating policy adjustments [12][13] - The survey indicates that 72% of economists believe China may initiate cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates in April to counteract the effects of U.S. tariffs [13] Group 3 - The current economic environment necessitates a focus on stabilizing employment, with 48% of economists identifying stimulating market vitality as a key strategy [10] - The need for increased fiscal support in areas such as consumption, livelihood, and broad infrastructure is highlighted as essential for achieving the 5% growth target [14] - The anticipated expansionary fiscal policy for 2025 is projected to reach 8 trillion yuan, reflecting the need to address external influences and employment pressures [13]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market saw all major indices rise as of April 9, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.68% to close at 20264.49 points. Large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks rose by 0.59%, 2.07%, and 1.68% respectively [2] - The China Enterprises Index and Technology Index experienced increases of 1.78% and 2.64% respectively, while the energy sector showed weaker performance with declines of -1.17% and -1.45% for the Composite Industry Index [2] - In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3186.81 points, up 1.31%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 1823.61 points, up 1.77% [2] U.S. Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher as of April 9, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 7.87% to 40608.45 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 9.52% to 5456.9 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 12.16% to 17124.97 points [3] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index saw a significant increase of 18.73%, closing at 4230.45 points [3] Recent Bond Issuance - On April 9, three offshore bonds were issued in the Chinese market. Hefei Investment Group plans to issue a 3-year senior bond in USD with an initial guidance price of around 5.3% [5] - Chongqing Nan'an Urban Construction Group intends to issue a 3-year senior unsecured bond in USD with an initial guidance price of around 5.5% [5] - Chengdu Xingjin Construction Investment Group is set to issue a 3-year senior unsecured bond in RMB with an initial guidance price of around 4% [5] Strong Performing Stocks - Notable strong performers include China Feihe (2-day increase of 20.83% to a closing price of 6.44), Youran Dairy (2-day increase of 19.34% to a closing price of 2.53), and Jinxin Fertility (2-day increase of 16.13% to a closing price of 3.24) [6] - Other significant gainers include Xiaomi Group (2-day increase of 14.95% to a closing price of 41.90) and SMIC (2-day increase of 14.72% to a closing price of 43.25) [6] Economic Data Summary - As of April 9, the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 17124.97 points, up 12.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3186.81 points, up 1.31% [7] - The Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 40608.45 points, up 7.87%, and the Hang Seng Index closed at 20264.49 points, up 0.68% [7] - The Brent crude oil price increased by 4.62% to $65.72 per barrel, while the London gold price rose by 3.34% to $3082 per ounce [3][7]

Group 1 - The Saudi stock market index rose by 0.97% on April 8, closing at 11,302.76 points [1] - Saudi Aramco's stock increased by 0.59%, reaching 25.40 Saudi Riyals [1] - The Albilad Southern East MSCI Hong Kong China Stocks ETF listed in Saudi Arabia fell by 2.81%, closing at 8.98 Saudi Riyals, nearing its January 16 closing price of 8.95 Riyals [1] Group 2 - On April 8, the ETF price dropped to a new low of 8.83 Saudi Riyals, marking the lowest since its listing on October 30, 2024 [1]

短短一个星期，股民就从极度亢奋的状态，又变回了以前万念俱灰的样子。国庆开盘前很多人摩拳擦 掌，嫌10%涨的太慢，现在已经开始诚惶诚恐担心会不会跌回3000点以下。 大v也有拒绝奋斗，主动躺平的，我就是。曾经那个老想把事情扛起来，经常自我感动往前冲的猫兄 弟，在前几年已经寄了。 晚上不知怎的絮絮叨叨写了那么多闲的淡的，如果你们想听行情的话，我觉得10月7日是过度乐观，现 在则是过度悲观，都是不可取的极端情绪。我今天收盘前加了1手if，1手ic，我已经很久很久没有主动 加仓a股头寸了。 想听听看周六那个会议有哪些内容，就算落空了，我寻思在这个位置滚期指大不了浪费时间，不至于大 亏。哎， 赌瘾又犯了，剁手了剁手了。 像10月8日之前的那种涨法，摆明了就是不想好好投资，既要逼死空头，也要逼疯多头，最后行情就像 打上天的一朵烟花，的一下就散落了。那几天微信群、抖音、微博全都在聊股票，同行们都在讨论 流量涨了没，哪里开户效率高，谁谁谁的课卖疯了，谁谁谁拉大户群搞串联。 我不跟你们开玩笑，我那几天根本没想这些，我满脑子的都是警铃大作，一定要注意文章措辞，我不能 再同一个坑里摔两次。其实我当时并不知道最后大盘能疯到哪，但我能 ...