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宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250827
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:46
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report is a daily arbitrage data report for futures varieties from Baocheng Futures on August 27, 2025, presenting detailed data on basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for various futures products. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On August 26, 2025, the basis was - 105.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 97.4 yuan/ton on August 25 and previous trading days [2]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month were all 0.0 yuan/ton from August 20 to 26, 2025 [2]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, the basis data from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being 11.95 yuan/ton on August 26 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: From August 20 to 26, 2025, the basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP are provided. For example, the basis of rubber was - 935 yuan/ton on August 26 [8]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rubber is 105 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2401 yuan/ton on August 26 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month (10) to 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) to 5 - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - month to 1 - month spread of rebar is 36.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore, rebar to coke, coke to coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 20 to 26, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.01 on August 26 [19]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of rebar was 177.0 yuan/ton on August 26 [20]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 20 to 26, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of copper was 310 yuan/ton on August 26 [27]. 3.4.2 London Market - **LME Premium/Discount**: On August 26, 2025, the LME premium/discount of copper was (84.82), aluminum was 3.25, etc. [35]. - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 8.07, 7.92, 7.94, 8.45, 7.99, and 7.96 respectively on August 26, 2025 [35]. - **CIF and Domestic Spot Prices**: The CIF and domestic spot prices of these non - ferrous metals are given, along with the import profit and loss data on August 26, 2025 [35]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 86 on August 26 [39]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The 5 - month to 1 - month, 9 - month to 1 - month, and 9 - month to 5 - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are provided [39]. - **Inter - commodity spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1 to corn, soybeans No.2 to corn, soybean oil to soybean meal, and spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, etc. from August 20 to 26, 2025, are given [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on August 20 to 26, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 3.59 on August 26 [51]. - **Inter - period spreads**: The spreads of next - month to current - month and next - quarter to current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [53].
有色套利早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 00:19
Report Overview - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals on August 27, 2025 [1] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 79,550, LME 9,720, ratio 8.21; March price: domestic 79,180, LME 9,805, ratio 8.11; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.14; spot export profit - 660.06 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22,280, LME 2,794, ratio 7.97; March price: domestic 22,265, LME 2,799, ratio 6.04; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.63; spot import profit - 1,820.78 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 20,780, LME 2,617, ratio 7.94; March price: domestic 20,705, LME 2,614, ratio 7.93; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.43; spot import profit - 1,287.62 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 119,350, LME 14,885, ratio 8.02; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.22; spot import profit - 1,806.58 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16,750, LME 1,965, ratio 8.55; March price: domestic 16,920, LME 2,004, ratio 11.15; equilibrium ratio for spot import 8.82; spot import profit - 531.05 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 500, - 510, - 530, - 550 respectively; theoretical spreads are 500, 899, 1306, 1714 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 105, - 110, - 105, - 110 respectively; theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 457, 578 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 70, - 80, - 115, - 150 respectively; theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 447, 563 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 85, 75, 85, 90 respectively; theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 420, 525 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 300, 410, 630, 870 respectively [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread 640; theoretical spread 5591 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 140, - 360 respectively; theoretical spreads are 366, 734 [4] Zinc - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 95, - 10 respectively; theoretical spreads are 146, 276 [4] Lead - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 95, 180 respectively; theoretical spreads are 157, 269 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.56, 3.82, 4.68, 0.93, 1.22, 0.76 respectively; in London (three - continuous) are 3.50, 3.73, 4.95, 0.94, 1.33, 0.71 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 00:24
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on August 26, 2025 [1][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 79440, three - month price is 79680, LME three - month price is 9809, and the ratio is 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22300, three - month price is 22390, LME three - month price is 2806, and the ratio is 6.01 [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20780, three - month price is 20740, LME three - month price is 2622, and the ratio is 7.91 [1] - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 119100, and the profit of spot import is - 1806.58 [1] - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16700, three - month price is 16870, LME three - month price is 1992, and the ratio is 11.23 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are 1000 (next month), 990 (three - month), 970 (four - month), 950 (five - month), with theoretical spreads of 495, 889, 1291, 1694 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are 120 (next month), 115 (three - month), 110 (four - month), 105 (five - month), with theoretical spreads of 214, 335, 455, 576 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 120 (next month), 90 (three - month), 55 (four - month), 30 (five - month), with theoretical spreads of 214, 330, 445, 560 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads are 85 (next month), 90 (three - month), 115 (four - month), 135 (five - month), with theoretical spreads of 209, 314, 419, 524 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads are 850 (next month), 990 (three - month), 1320 (four - month), 1590 (five - month) [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1610, with a theoretical spread of 5594 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 665 and 335 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 251 and 836 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads are - 25 and 95 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 166 and 296 [4] - **Zinc (repeated data)**: The spreads are - 25 and 95 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 134 and 277 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads are 80 and 165 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 158 and 270 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.56, 3.84, 4.72, 0.93, 1.23, 0.75 respectively [5]
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250825
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 25, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][4][20][26][37][49] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis and inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are presented. The basis values are - 100.4, - 99.4, - 97.4, - 97.4, - 97.4 respectively, and the inter - period spreads are all 0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis, ratio, and other data of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt, and INE crude oil from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 22 is 138.38 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of rubber on August 22 is - 975 [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rubber is 90 [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on August 22 is 2381 [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of rebar is 37.0 [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 22 is 4.05 [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on August 22 is 151.0 [20] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are presented. For example, the domestic basis of copper on August 22 is 120 [29] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is (78.38) [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 22 is 55 [38] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month inter - period spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 is 49 [38] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are provided. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on August 22 is 1.85 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 18 to August 22, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 22 is - 16.00 [50] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next - month vs. current - month and next - quarter vs. current - quarter, are presented. For example, the next - month vs. current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 19.0 [52]
有色套利早报-20250825
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 01:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on August 25, 2025 [1][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78,825 domestically and 9,636 on LME with a ratio of 8.17; March price is 78,630 domestically and 9,715 on LME with a ratio of 8.10. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.16 with a profit of 171.81, and spot export profit is - 396.63 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,190 domestically and 2,770 on LME with a ratio of 8.01; March price is 22,260 domestically and 2,773 on LME with a ratio of 6.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.65 with a profit of - 1,764.99 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,710 domestically and 2,588 on LME with a ratio of 8.00; March price is 20,595 domestically and 2,586 on LME with a ratio of 7.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.45 with a profit of - 1,162.37 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118,400 domestically and 14,749 on LME with a ratio of 8.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.24 with a profit of - 1,806.58 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,575 domestically and 1,942 on LME with a ratio of 8.57; March price is 16,790 domestically and 1,976 on LME with a ratio of 11.25. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.84 with a profit of - 524.17 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 110, 90, 70, 50 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 495, 887, 1289, 1691 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 15, 0, - 15, - 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 575 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 10, - 25, - 60, - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 444, 559 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 35, 45, 55, 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 313, 418, 523 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 90, 100, 350, 600 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 800, and the theoretical spread is 5526 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 240 and - 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 360 and 812 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 70 and 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 177 and 306 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 170 and 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 182 and 293 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.53, 3.82, 4.68, 0.93, 1.23, 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) are 3.48, 3.73, 4.91, 0.93, 1.32, 0.71 respectively [5].
有色套利早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:24
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals on August 22, 2025, including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78,780 (domestic) and 9,618 (LME) with a ratio of 8.19; March price ratio is 8.11. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17 with a profit of 5.76, and spot export profit is - 338.37 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,230 (domestic) and 2,768 (LME) with a ratio of 8.03; March price ratio is 6.04. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.66 with a profit of - 1,755.13 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,680 (domestic) and 2,575 (LME) with a ratio of 8.03; March price ratio is 8.01. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.47 with a profit of - 1,135.10 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118,850 (domestic) and 14,798 (LME) with a ratio of 8.03. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25 with a profit of - 1,991.00 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,625 (domestic) and 1,933 (LME) with a ratio of 8.63; March price ratio is 11.30. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.86 with a profit of - 458.35 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are - 130, - 150, - 160, - 190, while the theoretical spreads are 495, 888, 1,291, 1,693 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are - 45, - 60, - 60, - 65, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 335, 455, 576 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 20, - 20, - 55, - 85, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 444, 558 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 20, 35, 55, 80, and the theoretical spreads are 209, 313, 418, 523 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are - 100, 100, 360, 630 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1,690, and the theoretical spread is 5,536 [4]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.53, 3.82, 4.68, 0.92, 1.23, 0.75 respectively; for London (three - continuous) are 3.52, 3.76, 4.94, 0.93, 1.31, 0.71 respectively [5]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 120 and - 250, and the theoretical spreads are 395 and 812 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 55 and 10, and the theoretical spreads are 153 and 281 respectively [5]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 100 and 120, and the theoretical spreads are 176 and 287 respectively [5].
宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250819
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on August 19, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][40][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Power Coal - The basis data from August 12 to August 18, 2025, shows that the basis on August 18 was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 113.4 yuan/ton on August 12. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads were all 0.0 during this period [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 18 was 163.63 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided from August 12 to August 18, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 18 was - 920 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, such as the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber being 85 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are also presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on August 18 was 2269 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - Inter - period data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was 46.0 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 18 was 4.09 [20]. - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 18 was 145.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 18 was 220 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (96.75) [35]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 18 was - 4 yuan/ton [41]. - Inter - period data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are also presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on August 18 was 1.86 [41]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 18 was 1.61 [52]. - Inter - period data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts and the next - quarter and current - quarter contracts, are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 39.8 [54].
有色套利早报-20250819
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:24
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 19, 2025. Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 79,280, LME price is 9,660, and the ratio is 8.22; for three - month contracts, the domestic price is 78,910, LME price is 9,757, and the ratio is 8.11. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.18, with a profit of 96.04, and the spot export profit is - 446.22 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22,300, LME price is 2,781, and the ratio is 8.02; for three - month contracts, the domestic price is 22,360, LME price is 2,790, and the ratio is 6.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.67, with a profit of - 1806.11 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 20,550, LME price is 2,596, and the ratio is 7.91; for three - month contracts, the domestic price is 20,570, LME price is 2,596, and the ratio is 7.92. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.47, with a profit of - 1443.86 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 119,300, LME price is 14,860, and the ratio is 8.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.26, with a profit of - 1996.18 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16,625, LME price is 1,930, and the ratio is 8.64; for three - month contracts, the domestic price is 16,815, LME price is 1,974, and the ratio is 11.32. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.87, with a profit of - 443.17 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are - 260, - 260, - 270, and - 260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 498, 894, 1299, and 1703 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are - 120, - 120, - 120, and - 115 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 337, 458, and 580 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are - 160, - 185, - 225, and - 235 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, and 562 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are 30, 55, 130, and 95 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 418, and 523 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month are 60, 320, 550, and 800 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - 1 contracts is 1270, and the theoretical spread is 5544 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are - 80 and - 340 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 446 and 847 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 180 and 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 191 and 321 (or 211 and 311 in another record) [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot are 135 and 165 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 192 and 303 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.53, 3.84, 4.69, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts), they are 3.50, 3.76, 4.94, 0.93, 1.31, and 0.71 [5].
期货周报 | 多头关注中证500期货、铜、原油;空头关注国债期货、焦煤、玻璃
对冲研投· 2025-08-18 12:13
PART. 1: Long and Short Product Classification - Long products include stock index futures such as the SSE 50 futures (IH.CFE), CSI 300 futures (IF.CFE), and CSI 500 futures (IC.CFE), driven by bullish market sentiment with a 750D Px_M Percentile high and positive annualized rolling returns [5][6] - Metal products like SHFE copper (CU.SHF) and SHFE aluminum (AL.SHF) are also classified as long due to tight supply and stable annualized rolling returns [5] - Short products include government bond futures, particularly the 30-year bond (TL.CFE), which has a negative annualized rolling return due to rising interest rate expectations [6] - Black commodities such as DCE coking coal (JM.DCE) are under pressure from high inventory levels, while agricultural products like DCE soybean meal (M.DCE) are short due to ample supply [6] PART. 2: Volume Change and Trading Opportunities - Significant volume increase observed in DCE iron ore (I.DCE) with a volume ratio of 2.01 and an annualized rolling return of 0.1102, indicating a long opportunity [10] - SHFE rebar (RB.SHF) has seen recent position increases, but may experience short-term consolidation [10] - Arbitrage opportunities include inter-month arbitrage in coking coal (J.DCE) with widening price spreads and cross-product arbitrage in copper-aluminum ratios at historical highs [11][12] PART. 3: Core Logic - Stock index futures are supported by economic recovery expectations, but there are risks from policy adjustments [13] - The black commodities sector, particularly iron ore, is driven by steel mill restocking, though environmental production limits may suppress demand [13] - Government bond futures are in a bearish trend due to diminishing expectations for monetary policy easing [13] PART. 4: Summary - Long positions to focus on include CSI 500 futures, copper, and crude oil [15] - Short positions to consider are government bond futures, coking coal, and glass [15]
有色套利早报-20250818
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 18, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79130, LME spot price was 9671, and the spot ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of 79.57. The domestic March price was 79050, LME March price was 9765, and the March ratio was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22450, LME spot price was 2830, and the spot ratio was 7.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.66, with a profit of - 2054.98. The domestic March price was 22530, LME March price was 2836, and the March ratio was 5.92 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20710, LME spot price was 2621, and the spot ratio was 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.47, with a profit of - 1487.44. The domestic March price was 20750, LME March price was 2620, and the March ratio was 7.91 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119400, LME spot price was 14847, and the spot ratio was 8.04. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.26, with a profit of - 1524.77 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16625, LME spot price was 1942, and the spot ratio was 8.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.87, with a profit of - 519.03. The domestic March price was 16855, LME March price was 1986, and the March ratio was 11.33 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 18, 2025, the spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were 80, 70, 60, and 60 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1296, and 1700 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were 25, 50, 65, and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 337, 458, and 580 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were 55, 35, - 10, and - 50 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were 120, 125, 145, and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 313, 418, and 523 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, and 五月 - 现货月 were - 400, - 230, - 30, and 210 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1190, and the theoretical spread was 5541 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were - 170 and - 90 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 483 and 933 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 30 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 204 and 335 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads for the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 105 and 225 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 199 and 310 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.51, 3.81, 4.69, 0.92, 1.23, and 0.75 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.50, 3.75, 4.93, 0.93, 1.32, and 0.71 respectively [5]