有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/01 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 87440 11040 7.88 三月 87400 10995 7.94 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.03 -1071.50 现货出口 869.25 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22370 3261 6.86 三月 22450 3037 5.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.44 -5161.67 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21450 2819 7.61 三月 21650 2845 7.56 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.31 -1969.45 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119500 14663 8.15 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.13 -1633.66 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/12/01 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 28, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][20][26][36][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for different contract spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of May - January was 16 yuan/ton, and the basis of September - January was 6 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of energy commodities such as fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, on November 27, the basis of fuel oil was - 10.13 yuan/ton, and the ratio of INE crude oil to asphalt was 0.1475 [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of LLDPE was 56 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2214 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September(10) - January, September(10) - May) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of rebar was 16 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.88 [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of rebar was 127.0 yuan/ton [20] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of copper was 30 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - On November 27, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 16.56, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.95 [32] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are given. For example, on November 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 86 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of various agricultural products are presented. For example, the May - January inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 51 yuan/ton [36] - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on November 27, 2025, are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.83 [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 21 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, on November 27, the basis of CSI 300 was 22.80 [47] - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 152 [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 28, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price in China is 87060, LME price is 10952, and the ratio is 7.95; for three - month, the price in China is 87030, LME price is 10936, and the ratio is 7.96. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.04 with a profit of - 1077.91, and spot export profit is 539.42 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price in China is 22450, LME price is 3214, and the ratio is 6.99; for three - month, the price in China is 22445, LME price is 3049, and the ratio is 5.56. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.45 with a profit of - 4718.86 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price in China is 21460, LME price is 2826, and the ratio is 7.60; for three - month, the price in China is 21545, LME price is 2854, and the ratio is 7.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.31 with a profit of - 2019.25 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price in China is 119150, LME price is 14633, and the ratio is 8.14. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.14 with a profit of - 1696.98 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price in China is 16850, LME price is 1938, and the ratio is 8.72; for three - month, the price in China is 16955, LME price is 1977, and the ratio is 11.34. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.70 with a profit of 51.81 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 60, 100, 90, and 40 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 537, 971, 1415, and 1859 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 35, 65, 95, and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 457, and 578 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 30, 75, 95, and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 218, 338, 457, and 576 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 10, 10, 35, and 95 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 315, 421, and 527 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month are 190, 400, 610, and 890 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of 5 - 1 is - 180, and the theoretical spread is 6234 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are - and - 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 338 and 828 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are - 70 and - 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 139 and 269 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month contract and the next - month contract relative to the spot are 95 and 105 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 154 and 266 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - consecutive) are 3.88, 4.04, 5.13, 0.96, 1.27, and 0.76 respectively, and for LME (triple - consecutive) are 3.63, 3.87, 5.51, 0.94, 1.42, and 0.66 respectively [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 27, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price: domestic 86690, LME 10873, ratio 7.97; March price: domestic 86600, LME 10865, ratio 7.97; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.03, profit - 712.75; Spot export profit 293.03 [1] Zinc - Spot price: domestic 22390, LME 3171, ratio 7.06; March price: domestic 22365, LME 3008, ratio 5.67; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.45, profit - 4415.71 [1] Aluminum - Spot price: domestic 21400, LME 2784, ratio 7.68; March price: domestic 21505, LME 2811, ratio 7.63; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.31, profit - 1733.11 [1] Nickel - Spot price: domestic 120450, LME 14652, ratio 8.22; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.13, profit - 1756.72 [1] Lead - Spot price: domestic 16950, LME 1945, ratio 8.74; March price: domestic 17065, LME 1986, ratio 11.26; Spot import equilibrium ratio 8.69, profit 96.55 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 50, 60, 20, - 20 respectively; Theoretical spreads are 535, 967, 1409, 1851 [4] Zinc - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 5, 30, 35; Theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 456, 577 [4] Aluminum - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 30, 80, 110, 125; Theoretical spreads are 218, 337, 456, 576 [4] Lead - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 60, 60, 55, 70; Theoretical spreads are 210, 316, 422, 528 [4] Nickel - Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 1320, 1490, 1670, 1920 [4] Tin - 5 - 1 spread is 320; Theoretical spread is 6108 [4] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.87, 4.03, 5.07, 0.96, 1.26, 0.76; in London (three - continuous) are 3.59, 3.84, 5.54, 0.94, 1.45, 0.65 [5] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are - 70, - 20; Theoretical spreads are 350, 836 [4] Zinc - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are - 30; Theoretical spreads are 155, 288 [4][5] Lead - Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 55, 115; Theoretical spreads are 152, 265 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium futures are set to be listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27, 2025. The theoretical values of platinum and palladium on the listing day are lower than the benchmark prices, so the prices may initially decline to approach the forward parity structure. However, considering the high trading activity at the beginning of the domestic futures listing, the prices may first rise. In the long - term, the fundamentals of platinum and palladium are differentiated. Platinum has a stable and good fundamental situation and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, with a price range of 400 - 480 yuan/gram in the first half of next year. Palladium's demand is expected to remain weak, but its price center may rise slightly, with a price range of 350 - 420 yuan/gram in the first half of next year [2][41]. - Various investment strategies are proposed, including single - side strategies, spot - futures strategies, inter - period strategies, cross - variety strategies, and cross - market strategies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum Futures Contract Key Element Analysis - **Contract Details**: Platinum futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are PT2606, PT2608, and PT2610, with PT2606 expected to be the most active and the main contract. The listing price of each contract on the first day is 405 yuan/gram. The trading margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 14% of the benchmark price. If the contract has trading volume, from the next trading day, the trading margin level is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. Otherwise, the margin and limit range of the listing day will continue to apply [8]. - **Delivery Product Standards**: The benchmark delivery product of platinum futures requires a purity of not less than 99.95%. The impurity element content is specified according to different forms and sources, with different requirements for domestic and imported platinum ingots, spongy platinum, and powdered platinum [10]. - **Delivery Warehouse Settings and Regions**: Platinum futures have three types of delivery locations: warehouses, production - type factory warehouses, and trading - type factory warehouses. The first batch of factory warehouses and warehouses are all benchmark warehouses without any premium or discount. The maximum capacity of platinum in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 50.25 tons, with warehouses accounting for 79.6% and factory warehouses accounting for 20.4%. Factory warehouses are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Shanghai, and warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai [14][15]. - **Delivery Brand Settings**: Platinum futures implement a brand - based delivery system. There are 14 domestic registered brands and 26 overseas registered brands. Different brands can deliver different forms of platinum products [18]. 3.2 Palladium Futures Contract Key Element Analysis - **Contract Details**: Palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. The first batch of listed contracts are PD2606, PD2608, and PD2610, with PD2606 expected to be the most active and the main contract. The listing price of each contract on the first day is 365 yuan/gram. The trading margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 14% of the benchmark price. If the contract has trading volume, from the next trading day, the trading margin level is 9% of the contract value, and the daily price limit range is 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. Otherwise, the margin and limit range of the listing day will continue to apply [21]. - **Delivery Product Standards**: The benchmark delivery product of palladium futures requires a purity of not less than 99.95%. The impurity element content is specified according to different forms and sources, with different requirements for domestic and imported palladium ingots, spongy palladium, and powdered palladium [24]. - **Delivery Warehouse Settings and Regions**: Palladium futures have three types of delivery locations: warehouses, production - type factory warehouses, and trading - type factory warehouses. The first batch of factory warehouses and warehouses are all benchmark warehouses without any premium or discount. The maximum capacity of palladium in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 42.705 tons, with warehouses accounting for 93.67% and factory warehouses accounting for 6.33%. Factory warehouses are mainly concentrated in Yunnan and Gansu, and warehouses are concentrated in Shanghai [27][28]. - **Delivery Brand Settings**: Palladium futures implement a brand - based delivery system. There are 13 domestic registered brands and 24 overseas registered brands. Different brands can deliver different forms of palladium products [29]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Futures Investment Outlook - **Single - side Strategy on the Listing Day**: The theoretical values of platinum and palladium on the listing day are lower than the benchmark prices. In the short - term, the prices may decline to approach the forward parity structure. However, considering the high trading activity at the beginning of the domestic futures listing, the prices may first rise. From a fundamental perspective, the prices may show a pattern of rising first and then falling. In the next 12 months, the prices of platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate narrowly downward. In the medium - to - long term, platinum is expected to rise, with a price range of 400 - 480 yuan/gram in the first half of next year, while palladium's price center may rise slightly, with a price range of 350 - 420 yuan/gram in the first half of next year [2][39][41]. - **Spot - Futures Strategy Cost Calculation**: Taking the strategy of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract as an example, the cost of the platinum spot - futures strategy is about 7.5 yuan/gram, and the cost of the palladium spot - futures strategy is about 6.7 yuan/gram. If relevant opportunities arise, risk - free arbitrage strategies can be considered [43][44]. - **Inter - period Strategy**: Due to the regulation that the platinum and palladium delivery factories in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be uniformly cancelled in August each year, the price of the 2608 contract may be under pressure. Therefore, the inter - period strategy can consider buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract. When the price of PT2610 is about 5.1 yuan/gram higher than PT2606, and the price of PD2610 is about 4.6 yuan/gram higher than PD2606, there are risk - free positive arbitrage opportunities [48]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Based on the differentiated fundamentals of platinum and palladium, the cross - variety arbitrage strategy considers going long on platinum and short on palladium. If the platinum - to - palladium ratio approaches 1 after the contract listing, an arbitrage position can be considered, with a target ratio of 1.2 - 1.3 [53]. - **Cross - market Strategy**: There may be positive risk - free arbitrage opportunities in the cross - market part, which can be achieved by selling domestic futures and buying overseas spot forwards. The break - even points of this type of strategy are about 46.2 yuan/gram for platinum and about 42.9 yuan/gram for palladium [62].

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16950 1950 8.72 三月 17045 1986 11.28 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.70 34.58 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86620 10867 7.93 三月 86600 10857 7.99 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.04 -787.48 现货出口 269.01 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22400 3130 7.16 三月 22380 3009 5.67 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.47 -4106.26 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21440 2789 7.69 三月 21505 2820 7.63 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.32 -1760.57 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119500 14494 8.24 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.14 -1774 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on November 26, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, mainly showing the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of each variety. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from November 19 to November 25, 2025, is presented, with the basis on November 25 being 21.6 yuan/ton, and it was 32.6 yuan/ton from November 19 to 24 [1][2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: The basis, ratio, and other data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on November 25 was 1.72 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on November 25 was - 275 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rubber was 80 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety data of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on November 25 was 2288 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on November 25 was 164 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of rebar was 23 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore value on November 25 was 3.90 [20]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of copper on November 25 was 70 yuan/ton [29]. - **London Market**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on November 25, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was 9.52 [32]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on November 25 was - 88 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are provided. For example, the 5 - month minus 1 - month inter - period of soybeans No.1 was 52 yuan/ton [38]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn value on November 25 was 1.85 [37]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 19 to November 25, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on November 25 was 17.40 [49]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period data of the next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next - month minus current - month inter - period of CSI 300 was - 152 [49].

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/25 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 86240 10802 7.97 三月 86100 10777 8.00 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.07 -1067.61 现货出口 507.43 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22370 3148 7.11 三月 22410 3008 5.71 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -4351.18 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 21360 2773 7.70 三月 21410 2806 7.62 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.34 -1774.32 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/25 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 119900 14370 8.34 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.17 -1692.67 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - product arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on November 24, 2025 [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On November 24, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85800, the LME price was 10677, and the ratio was 8.07; the three - month domestic price was 85680, the LME price was 10676, and the ratio was 8.03. The profit from spot import was - 632.80, and the profit from spot export was 75.49 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22420, the LME price was 3122, and the ratio was 7.18; the three - month domestic price was 22400, the LME price was 2987, and the ratio was 5.75. The profit from spot import was - 4097.68 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21380, the LME price was 2757, and the ratio was 7.75; the three - month domestic price was 21370, the LME price was 2788, and the ratio was 7.66. The profit from spot import was - 1628.41 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118650, the LME price was 14220, and the ratio was 8.34. The profit from spot import was - 1396.42 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17025, the LME price was 1973, and the ratio was 8.66; the three - month domestic price was 17170, the LME price was 1995, and the ratio was 11.22. The profit from spot import was - 123.44 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 420, - 400, - 430, and - 440 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 532, 963, 1402, and 1842 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 10, 20, 25, and 40 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 215, 336, 457, and 578 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 155, - 125, - 110, and - 90 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 218, 338, 457, and 577 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 35, - 30, - 40, and 0 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 211, 318, 425, and 532 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1200, - 1020, - 730, and - 450 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 480, with a theoretical spread of 6017 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 310 and - 110 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 40 and - 30 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 140 respectively [5] Cross - Product Arbitrage Tracking - On November 24, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - consecutive contracts) were 3.83, 4.01, 4.99, 0.95, 1.24, and 0.77 respectively; and in London (three - consecutive contracts) were 3.61, 3.87, 5.43, 0.93, 1.40, and 0.66 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating trend. Considering the weak fundamental situation, a slightly bullish stance is recommended for unilateral trading, with the suggestion to lightly position long on T contracts on dips. In terms of arbitrage, it is advised to stay on the sidelines for the short - term after closing the short position on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) mid - week. Attention should be paid to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter bond futures contracts [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: This week, the bond futures market showed some divergence. Some market participants pre - speculated on the central bank's treasury bond trading information for this month, leading to relatively stronger performance in the short - to - medium - term. Meanwhile, foreign media reports on real - estate incremental policies suppressed long - term sentiment, with the TL contract declining more in the second half of the week. The actual progress, specific intensity of real - estate policies, and the source of fiscal subsidy funds are unknown, making it difficult to drive a trend - upward in yields. Market expectations for interest - rate cuts are weak, and capital prices continue to constrain the downward movement of yields [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation** - **Unilateral Trading**: Adopt a slightly bullish approach and lightly position long on T contracts on dips [6]. - **Arbitrage**: After closing the short position on the 30Y - 7Y term spread (TL - 3T) mid - week, stay on the sidelines in the short - term. For inter - delivery - month arbitrage, also enter a wait - and - see mode as the liquidity of the current - quarter contracts will gradually decline next week. Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities in the next - quarter bond futures contracts, as their valuations are relatively high, mostly above 1.7% [5]. Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - **Economic Data** - **EPMI**: In November, China's Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) was 52.7, down 7.0 percentage points from the previous month. Although the decline was significant, it remained in the expansion range. EPMI and the official manufacturing PMI usually have high synchronicity in trends, but they diverged last month, indicating significant differences in the prosperity of different domestic industries. With the slowdown in the expansion of emerging industries in November, the recovery momentum of this month's PMI may still be weak [10]. - **Capital Market** - **Funding Conditions**: This week, affected by tax payments and a still - high net financing scale of government bonds, the market funding situation tightened first and then eased. As of Friday's close, DR001 and DR007 were 1.3209% and 1.4408% respectively. The overnight and 7 - day non - bank funding spreads were 6.68bp and 5.44bp respectively. The one - year certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks slightly rose to around 1.65%. Next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will continue to decline, but approaching the end of the month, the funding situation will face some temporary disturbances. With the central bank's consistent supportive attitude, the upward range of market funding prices is expected to be relatively limited [12][16][17]. - **Term Spread**: Since Wednesday this week, the 30Y - 7Y term spread has widened again. On one hand, after the spread approached 40bp, there was a lack of substantial positive drivers, and the momentum for further compression was insufficient. Some funds pre - speculated on the central bank's treasury bond trading information for November and preferred to go long on medium - term treasury bonds. On the other hand, foreign media reported on Thursday that the policy level was considering providing mortgage subsidies to new home buyers nationwide in the future, which was more bearish for the long - term. If the mortgage subsidy policy is finally implemented, it will help balance the cost of home purchases and the rent - to - sale ratio for residents, and the probability of the central bank cutting interest rates will decrease accordingly, which is negative for the bond market. However, the details of relevant policies are unknown, so the bond market is not expected to over - price in advance [18][19][25]. - **Arbitrage Indicators** - **Inter - delivery - month Arbitrage**: In the past two weeks, the indicators for potential inter - delivery - month arbitrage opportunities during the roll - over period of the T contract triggered two short - term long - trading signals, but the indicator became neutral starting on Thursday, presumably related to the significant increase in long positions in the next - quarter T contract on that day. As next week is the last week before the delivery month, it is recommended to enter a wait - and - see mode for inter - delivery - month arbitrage [5][26][29]. - **Cash - and - carry Arbitrage**: Calculated based on the ChinaBond valuation and futures settlement prices, the implied repo rates (IRR) of the current - quarter contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are 1.3226%, 1.0132%, 1.4099%, and 1.2732% respectively. The IRR of the next - quarter contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are 1.6583%, 1.7361%, 1.7706%, and 1.7469% respectively, with relatively high valuations [34]. - **Roll - over Progress**: This week, the roll - over of the main contracts accelerated significantly. As of Friday's close, the roll - over progress of the TS, TF, T, and TL contracts was 69.2%, 63.2%, 63.7%, and 64.8% respectively [35].