Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to pause interest rate cuts during its July monetary policy meeting, marking the first pause since the beginning of the current rate-cutting cycle in June 2024 [1] Monetary Policy Decisions - The ECB maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision to keep rates unchanged is attributed to significant uncertainties in the international environment, influenced by geopolitical conflicts [1] Economic Outlook - The ECB emphasized the importance of waiting for more information and the resolution of uncertainties before making further adjustments to policy rates [1] - The ECB aims to ensure that inflation stabilizes at a medium-term target of 2% [1] - The ECB forecasts that the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone will fluctuate around current levels for the remainder of 2025, with a projected decline to approximately 1.5% by the first quarter of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain its current interest rate level, with discussions on potential rate cuts possibly resuming in the fall if signs of economic slowdown in Europe emerge [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the bank is in an "ideal state" after keeping the benchmark interest rate at 2.00%, marking the end of a year-long rate-cutting cycle [1] - The ECB's latest economic forecasts suggest that inflation will dip below the 2.00% target next year before gradually recovering, which includes considerations for potential future rate cuts [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the eurozone economy has proven more resilient than expected, with the inflation rate having fallen to the ECB's target of 2.00% [1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index indicates an acceleration in summer business activity, with new orders in August rising for the first time since May 2024, leading to increased investor optimism regarding the eurozone economic outlook [1] Group 3: External Factors - The 15% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on European goods aligns with ECB predictions, suggesting that external trade policies are influencing economic conditions [1] - Officials have warned that the recent uptick in orders may be a result of U.S. importers placing bulk orders to avoid tariffs, indicating a potential demand drop in the coming months [1]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's inflation rate in July exceeded expectations, rising to 2.8%, which is the highest annual increase since July 2024, prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to maintain its current interest rate policy in September [1]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia increased by 2.8% year-on-year in July, significantly higher than June's 1.9% and above economists' expectations of 2.3% [1]. - The trimmed mean inflation measure favored by the RBA rose to 2.7%, up from 2.1% in the previous month [1]. - Housing prices surged by 3.6%, driven by soaring electricity prices, making it one of the largest contributors to annual price changes [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The RBA recently lowered the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6%, marking the third rate cut this year, with expectations for further cuts in the future [2]. - Market expectations indicate that the RBA will likely keep rates unchanged in September, with the next anticipated rate cut in November [1]. - The RBA's chair, Michele Bullock, emphasized the need for cautious policy adjustments, suggesting that monthly CPI data may not fully reflect the actual inflation situation [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Moody's Australia economic head, Sunny Kim Nguyen, expressed a dovish stance, predicting that government energy subsidies starting this month may alleviate some price pressures [2]. - Nguyen noted that seasonal price increases related to travel typically diminish after the July school holidays [2][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with the December 2025 gold futures price dropping by $6.5 to $3410.7 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.19% [1] - Following a significant increase last Friday, the gold market has returned to a summer-like trading pattern, as the market has largely absorbed comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming [1] - Powell hinted at a potential interest rate cut as early as the September policy meeting, while also acknowledging the challenges posed by inflation rates remaining above the 2% target and signs of weakness in the labor market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, exerting additional pressure on gold prices, with the index rising by 0.73% to close at 98.430 [1] - Market analysts suggest that a sustained weakness in the dollar could continue to support gold prices, while concerns over potential government intervention and policy missteps may have a more significant impact on interest rates, the dollar, and gold [1] - Despite a reduction in global uncertainties and changes in trading flows, analysts believe that gold prices remain well-supported with limited downside risks [1] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are currently struggling to break out of a consolidation phase, with the $3400 level acting as a significant resistance point [2] - Silver futures for September delivery also saw a decline, dropping by $0.34 to close at $39.050 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.86% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Cyprus has the lowest annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the EU at 0.1% for July, indicating a unique economic situation compared to other EU countries [1] Inflation Data - The annual CPI for Cyprus in July is 0.1%, the lowest in the EU, while the highest is in Romania at 6.6% [1] - The inflation rates for other countries include France at 0.9% and Ireland at 1.6% [1] - The Eurozone's annual inflation rate for July 2025 is reported at 2%, and the EU's at 2.4% [1] Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest price increases in Cyprus are restaurants and hotels (5.9%) and entertainment and culture (4.2%) [1] - The sectors with the largest price decreases include clothing and footwear (-7.1%) and housing, water, electricity, and gas (-4.4%) [1] - The most significant change in economic categories is a 9.7% decrease in energy prices compared to July 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The average American household is projected to face an increase in spending of $2,400 due to tariffs, which are at their highest effective rate since 1933 at 18.6% [1][2] - The U.S. food industry is seeking exemptions from tariffs, particularly for fresh produce, as the industry warns that menu prices will rise if tariffs are imposed on seasonal ingredients [2][4] - The seafood industry is heavily reliant on imports, with 85% of seafood consumption in the U.S. coming from foreign sources, and 90% of shrimp supply being imported, primarily from India [4][6][7] Group 2 - The U.S. seafood trade deficit reached $24 billion in 2022, highlighting the significant reliance on imported seafood [5] - The American Food Industry Association has indicated that without tariff exemptions, prices for various food products will rise significantly, affecting major retailers like Walmart [9] - Walmart's CEO noted that costs are increasing weekly due to tariffs, with a same-store inflation rate of 1.1% reported, which is more than double the previous quarter [10] Group 3 - Target has experienced a sales slowdown and acknowledges the challenges posed by tariffs, indicating a reluctance to raise prices but recognizing the difficulties in managing costs [10] - Economic analysts predict that overall inflation in the U.S. will rise from 2.5% in the second quarter to around 3.5% by the end of the year, driven by increasing prices of imported goods [11]

Group 1 - A key indicator measuring wage growth in the Eurozone has significantly increased, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain a cautious stance on further rate cuts [1][4] - In the second quarter, negotiated wages rose by 4% year-on-year, up from 2.5% in the first quarter, but still below the peak of 5.4% expected in 2024 [1][4] - The ECB is confident in stabilizing inflation at 2%, based on expectations that wage growth will slow and inflation in labor-intensive service sectors, currently around 3%, will also decline [1] Group 2 - Data tracking wages across 20 Eurozone member countries indicates a significant decline in wage levels is expected by early next year [4] - Despite a substantial increase in wages reported by the German central bank, a decline is anticipated due to falling inflation rates and a poor economic environment [4] - Bloomberg economist Martin Ademmer suggests that the rise in negotiated wage growth may be temporary, driven by one-time payments, and expects wage pressures to ease in the coming quarters, which could help lower high service sector inflation [4]

Group 1 - Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September is around 40% [1] - The current labor market is characterized by instability, with initial jobless claims showing small layoffs but an increase in continuing claims indicating longer job search periods [1] - Concerns are raised about persistent high service sector inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for services remaining in the 3%-4% range [1] - Despite challenges, the delay in rate cuts is seen as a positive signal reflecting economic resilience and the fact that inflation has not yet reached the 2% target [1] - Corporate earnings exceeded expectations, with second-quarter profits reaching a historical high and a year-on-year growth rate close to 11%, significantly above the previous market expectation of 3% [1] Group 2 - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts are becoming apparent, with Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester opposing rate cuts due to high inflation [2] - Mester emphasizes the importance of maintaining a moderate tightening policy to bring inflation back to target levels [2] - Kansas City Fed President Esther George believes inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, stating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [2] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic views the current monetary policy as slightly restrictive and anticipates a return to neutral interest rates by 2026, suggesting only one rate cut this year [2] Group 3 - Bostic maintains a single-direction trajectory for interest rates amid economic uncertainty, expecting clearer economic outlooks later this year [3] - He notes that inflation has been stable in the 2.5%-2.8% range, above the Fed's 2% target, while signs of weakening in the labor market are emerging [3] - Recent downward revisions in non-farm payrolls for May and June indicate a significant reduction in job creation, although single data points do not establish a trend [3] - The statements from Fed officials come ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will be closely monitored for hints regarding the September monetary policy meeting [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes since March 2023 [1] - The FOMC members unanimously acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting data [1] - The decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening of the labor market [1] Group 2 - Recent labor market data showed that July's non-farm payroll additions were significantly below expectations, with an increase in the unemployment rate and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical revisions to employment data for May and June erased over 250,000 job additions, undermining the perception of a strong labor market [1] - The mixed inflation data in July has caused discomfort within the Federal Reserve, with ongoing tariff effects expected to continue pushing inflation higher in the coming months [2]

据欧盟统计局数据，2025年7月，欧盟通胀率为2.4%，涨幅低于上年同期0.4个百分点。从成员国看，年 通胀率最低的国家是塞浦路斯0.1%，法国为0.9%，爱尔兰为1.6%；年通胀率最高的国家是罗马尼亚 6.6%，爱沙尼亚为5.6%，斯洛伐克为4.6%。 ...