Core Viewpoint - The UK inflation rate has risen for the first time in five months, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 3.4% in December 2025, up from 3.2% in November, driven primarily by higher tobacco taxes and rising airfare prices. This increase is expected to be temporary as the government plans measures to alleviate price pressures in the spring [1][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The CPI increase in December 2025 marks the first rise since July 2025, with the increase attributed mainly to a 3% rise in tobacco prices due to delayed tax adjustments and a significant 28.6% rebound in airfare prices, which exceeded the previous month's decline and the year-on-year increase of 16.2% [8]. - Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation also saw a slight increase, rising to 4.5% year-on-year from 4.2%, driven by higher prices for bread and cereals [8]. - Rent and various entertainment and cultural expenses have exerted downward pressure on overall inflation, with prices for items like games and camping gear showing declines [8]. Economic Outlook - The Bank of England anticipates that inflation will approach its 2% target by spring, aided by measures in the upcoming budget that are expected to reduce price growth by about 0.5 percentage points [4]. - Despite the December inflation uptick, it is not expected to cause concern for the Bank of England, as the increase is seen as temporary and not driven by domestic price pressures [10]. - The central bank is closely monitoring labor market dynamics, with indications of a slowdown in wage growth and a stable unemployment rate of 5.1% [11]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the British pound experienced a slight decline but stabilized around 1.3440 USD, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this year remaining largely unchanged [4]. - Analysts predict that the next rate cut by the Bank of England will likely be the last in the current cycle, potentially occurring in the spring [10].

Core Viewpoint - The UK's inflation rate rose to 3.4% in December, exceeding the expected 3.3%, prompting the Bank of England to consider interest rate decisions in the upcoming month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Growth - Despite sluggish economic growth, the UK's inflation rate remains the highest among the G7 countries [1] - The rise in utility costs and other government-regulated fees from the previous year will no longer factor into annual comparisons, leading to a significant slowdown in price increases expected in the coming months [1] Group 2: Bank of England's Outlook - Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that the inflation rate could approach the central bank's target of 2% by April or May [1] - Financial markets anticipate that the Bank of England may lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, with each reduction expected to be 25 basis points [1]

央行报告称，公用事业收费的上调以及美国关税的价格压力带来的溢出效应可能会构成一些上行风险。 尽管如此，通过维持适当的货币政策立场、有力的冲销措施、持续的财政整顿以及充足的储备缓冲，仍 有望推动进一步的通缩。 总体通胀率延续下降趋势，从2025年9月的9.4%降至2025年10月的8.0%，11月和12月的通胀率将进一步 下降。根据对银行、企业和消费者的调查，通胀预期也保持稳定，潜在通胀压力持续缓解。 （原标题：加纳央行预测通胀率将维持较低范围） 据"乐在线"1月18日报道，加纳央行预测，总体通胀率将处于中期目标8±2%的下限范围内。 ...

从类别来看，服务价格仍是主要推手，同比上涨 6.3%；能源价格上涨3.9%，食品、饮料及烟草上 涨3.1%。然而，受能源和食品价格月度下跌0.7%的影响，12月消费者价格环比下降了0.4%。 据克通社1月16日报道，克国家统计局数据显示，2025年12月克罗地亚年化通胀率降至 3.3%，较11 月的3.8%显著放缓，处于全年波动区间（3.2%至4.2%）的低位。 （原标题：克罗地亚12月通胀率降至3.3%） 据克统计局初步估计，2025年全年平均通胀率为 3.7%。若按欧盟调和消费者物价指数（HICP）计 算，12月通胀同比为3.8%，环比下降0.3%。分析指出，尽管服务价格仍具韧性，但整体通胀压力在年 底已明显缓解。 ...

（原标题：希腊通胀率升至2.9%） 希腊《每日报》1月7日报道，根据欧盟统计局数据显示，希腊12月通胀率升至2.9%，高于11月的 2.8%，在连续两个月下降后出现回升。欧元区消费者价格指数（CPI）为2%，较此前的2.1%略有回 落。欧元区核心通胀率（剔除能源、食品、酒精和烟草等波动性较大的项目）降至 2.3%，希腊则为 3.2%。 ...

Group 1 - The Russian government, represented by spokesperson Peskov, is planning to engage in discussions with U.S. representatives at the Davos meeting, although there is no confirmation of a potential meeting with Trump [1] - Peskov emphasized the importance of understanding the negotiations between the U.S., EU, and Kyiv regarding solutions to the Ukraine issue [1] - Russia is monitoring the rising prices domestically and is taking measures to maintain macroeconomic stability, with no current concerns about inflation exceeding the predicted range of 4% to 5% [3] Group 2 - Peskov stated that Russia advocates for the restoration of trade and economic cooperation with the United States [2] - Russia has not yet received an invitation to participate in the G7 summit in Paris [3] - Regarding Moldova's announcement to withdraw from the CIS, Peskov indicated that this development was not surprising [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Citigroup Japan market head suggests that if the yen continues to weaken, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times this year, potentially doubling the current rate [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - If the USD/JPY exchange rate exceeds 160, the Bank of Japan may increase rates by 25 basis points to 1% in April, with a similar hike possible in July, and potentially a third increase by year-end if the yen remains weak [1][2]. - Market observers expect the next rate hike from the Bank of Japan may still be months away, but some believe that if the yen declines significantly again, the Bank may act sooner [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Hoshino forecasts that the yen will trade in a range slightly below 150 to 165 this year, with the yen recently trading around 158.2 and having touched an 18-month low of 159.45 [2][3]. - If the 10-year Japanese government bond yield and other key rates rise above inflation, domestic institutional investors may consider repatriating overseas investments to allocate to domestic fixed-income assets [2][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The weakness of the yen is driven by negative real interest rates, where yields are below inflation, indicating that the Bank of Japan has no choice but to address this issue to reverse the currency trend [1][2]. - There is a lack of investment products available for investors wishing to repatriate funds to Japan, which is a key reason for the yen's long-term weakness [4].

上述数据对利率预期影响不大。"我认为今天的报告中没有任何内容会改变我对加拿大央行的看 法，"Servus Credit Union首席经济学家Charles St-Arnaud表示，央行"对目前的利率水平感到满意"。 加元对通胀数据反应平淡，但债券走强，加拿大2年期基准国债收益率在渥太华时间上午9点前不久降至 2.536%。 整体通胀率高于预期主要源于基数效应。2024年12月，联邦政府曾暂时性对多种商品免征消费品税，包 括餐饮、玩具以及部分酒类。 加拿大通胀加速，快于市场预期，受2024年底联邦税临时性免税措施压低同比基数影响，抵消了汽油价 格的下跌。 加拿大统计局周一公布的数据显示， 12月整体通胀率升至2.4%。这一数字高于彭博调查中经济学家的 预估中值，他们此前预计通胀率将维持在2.2%。 12月消费者价格指数（CPI）环比下降0.2%，不及经济学家预计的0.3%的降幅。 不过，剔除波动较大项目后的核心通胀指标整体趋缓。加拿大央行关注的截尾和中位指标同比涨幅由此 前的2.9%放缓至2.6%。按三个月移动年化口径计算，这两项指标从11月的2.3%放缓至1.7%。 责任编辑：丁文武 不过，剔除波动较大项目 ...

格隆汇1月19日｜公布的数据显示，加拿大12月的CPI涨幅高于预期，达到2.4%。这一涨幅主要归因于 去年销售税减免政策带来的基数效应，但备受关注的核心通胀指标已连续第三个月出现降温。核心价格 的下降趋势应该会让加拿大央行感到安心。此前该行在12月将关键政策利率维持在2.25%不变，并表示 这一利率水平恰到好处，能够使通胀率接近其2%的目标。货币市场预计2026年利率将保持不变。 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月19日，周五——2026日央行首次利率决议： 一众发达国家中，日本率先在2026年进行利率决议。 ▲ATFX图 1月22日~23日，日本央行进行2026年首次利率决议，结果将于本周五亚盘时段公布，大概率在11： 00~13：00之间。不同于美联储"定时定点"的公布利率决议，日本央行决议结果的公布只区分"上午"或 者"下午"，比较灵活和自由。 机构认为，日本央行将按兵不动，不会采取加息政策。我们持有相同的观点：不会加息。如果日本央行 加息的话，日本的媒体总能提前获得消息并大肆宣扬。距离日本央行决议结构公布仅剩一周时间，日本 媒体仍然"默不作声"，意味着本次决议看点不多，加息概率较低。 决议结果公布当日，日本关键数据——12月核心CPI年率，将提前发布。机构预期值2.4%，远远低于前 值3%。通胀是货币政策的"锚点"。一旦日本通胀失控下降，日本央行将没有勇气继续降息。如果机构 预期兑现，日本央行当日加息的概率将无限趋近于零。 周四——美国11月PCE物价指数： 美国的PCE数据，重要性远高于日本央行的利率决议。为什么PCE的排序在决议之后？因为本次PCE数 据是11月份的补充数据， ...