碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 5.31%至 120160 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 500 元/吨至 99500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 500 元/吨至 96850 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 1000 元/吨至 88480 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 240 吨至 16651 吨。 2. 供给端，周度产量环比增加 47 吨至 22045 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 60 吨至 13804 吨，锂云母 产量环比减少 50 吨至 2826 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 20 吨至 3095 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 17 吨至 2320 吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 468 吨至 17845 吨，库存环比减少 433 吨至 18091 吨； 周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 2083 吨至 92061 吨，库存环比减少 1387 吨至 102271 吨。据乘联会，12 月 1-14 日，全国乘用车市场零售 ...

Battery Production - In January, battery production is projected at 75-76 GWh, remaining stable month-on-month [1] - Another battery production line is expected to produce 23 GWh in January, reflecting a 15% decrease compared to the previous month [1] - A third battery production line anticipates a slight increase, with production at 13 GWh in January [1] Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Production - LFP production is expected to reach 110,000 tons in January, remaining flat month-on-month [1] - Another LFP production line is set to produce 40,000 tons, also stable compared to the previous month [1] - A third LFP production line will produce 23,000 tons, maintaining the same level as last month [1] Separator Production - Separator production is projected at 450 million square meters in January, remaining unchanged month-on-month [1] Anode Production - Anode production is expected to be between 32,000 to 34,000 tons in January, remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] Electrolyte Production - Electrolyte production is projected at 73,000 to 74,000 tons in January, which is consistent with the revised figures from December, but shows a 5% decrease after the revision [1]

Group 1 - The core material for electrolytes, lithium hexafluorophosphate, has seen a price increase that exceeds market expectations, reaching an average price of 177,250 yuan per ton, which is over a 200% increase since early November [1] - The demand from energy storage and new energy vehicles has triggered a boom in the lithium battery industry chain, marking a turning point in industry prosperity since December 2025, with price increases expected to continue until the second quarter of 2026 due to supply-demand mismatches [1] - As of December 24, 2025, the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) rose by 0.36%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Weichai Power (8.32%) and Zhongmin Resources (4.77%) [1] Group 2 - The CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index closely tracks the performance of 50 listed companies involved in the new energy vehicle sector, including manufacturers of electric vehicles, electric motors, battery equipment, and materials [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index accounted for 51.96% of the index, with leading companies including CATL, BYD, and Ganfeng Lithium [2]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 12月24日，A股三大指数高开。创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）早盘震荡下行，跌幅0.13%。盘面 上，永贵电器上涨8.35%，中伟股份上涨7.96%，鹏辉能源上涨3.45%，盛弘股份、飞荣达等涨超2%； 截至发文，创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）成交额达2766万元，居同类基金首位。 创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）是全市场跟踪创业板新能源指数的规模最大ETF基金。创业板新能源 指数主要涵盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、光伏等多个细分领域。创业板新能源ETF华夏 （159368）高弹性，涨幅可达20cm；费率最低，管理费和托管费合计仅为0.2%；规模最大，截至2025 年11月30日，规模达7.32亿元；成交额最大，近一月日均成交7275万元。其储能+固态电池占比近 90%，契合当下市场热点。 消息面上，12月24日，碳酸锂主力合约当日上涨4.08%，延续了近期强劲的上涨趋势。碳酸锂期货价格 已突破12万元/吨关口，市场情绪持续高涨。瑞达期货研报显示，国内碳酸锂社会库存环比减少1044吨 至11.04万吨，去库幅度虽有所放缓但仍保持下降趋势。其中冶炼厂库存降 ...

从行业基本面看，11月动力电池装车量稳步增长。 多氟多、天赐材料大涨，带动锂电池ETF、电池ETF、电池50ETF、电池ETF基金、电池龙头有ETF、电池ETF景顺、电池ETF嘉实 涨超2%，年内涨幅超60%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | 估算规模 管理公司 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 561160 | 锂电池ETF | 2.62% | 67.62% | 22.63 亿 | 富国基金 | | 159755 | 电池ETF | 2.52% | 62.12% | 145.39亿 | 广发基金 | | 159796 | 电池50ETF | 2.56% | 66.15% | 90.10亿 | 汇添富其金 | | 562880 | 电池ETF嘉实 | 2.44% | 65.29% | 14.64 Z | 嘉实基金 | | 561910 | 电池ETF | 2.37% | 68.03% | 56.28 Z | 招商基金 | | 159757 | 电池ETF景顺 | 2.34% | 62.64% | 4.03亿 | 景顺长城基金 | | ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约涨 3.98%至 114380 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 1350 元/吨至 99000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 1300 元/吨至 96350 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 1200 元/吨至 87480 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 900 吨至 16411 吨。 2. 供给端，周度产量环比增加 47 吨至 22045 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 60 吨至 13804 吨，锂云母 产量环比减少 50 吨至 2826 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 20 吨至 3095 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 17 吨至 2320 吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 468 吨至 17845 吨，库存环比减少 433 吨至 18091 吨； 周度磷酸铁锂产量环比减少 2083 吨至 92061 吨，库存环比减少 1387 吨至 102271 吨。据乘联会，12 月 1-14 日，全国乘用车市场零售 76.4 万辆，同比去年 12 月同期下降 24%，较上月同期增长 2% ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a morning rally, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 1% and the CSI A500 Index increasing by 0.54% [1] - The lithium battery industry chain showed strong performance, while the commercial aerospace concept faced a pullback [1] ETF Performance - Several ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index saw slight increases, with 14 ETFs having transaction volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, and 4 surpassing 6.4 billion yuan [1] - The transaction amounts for major A500 ETFs were as follows: Huatai-PB A500 ETF at 9.055 billion yuan, A500 ETF Fund at 7.783 billion yuan, E Fund A500 ETF at 6.481 billion yuan, and Southern A500 ETF at 6.419 billion yuan [1][2] Market Liquidity - Analysts predict that the market liquidity environment will remain loose until the first quarter of next year, driven by low interest rates and a scarcity of quality assets [1] - The trend of "deposit migration" among residents is expected to continue, providing a favorable window for investors to position themselves ahead of the upcoming spring market [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a morning rally with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 1%. As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 3930.87 points, up 0.34%, with a trading volume of 518 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13419.60 points, up 0.65%, with a trading volume of 720.1 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index was at 3217.02 points, up 0.78%, with a trading volume of 328.9 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - The battery, photolithography, and precious metals sectors saw significant gains, while tourism, education, and film industry sectors experienced notable declines [2]. Market Hotspots - The lithium battery industry chain showed rapid strength, with stocks like Tianji Co. and Tianci Materials hitting the daily limit. The non-ferrous tungsten concept also performed actively, with Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten both hitting the daily limit. The semiconductor equipment concept continued its strong performance, with Shenghui Integration achieving a historical high with two consecutive limit-ups. Conversely, the commercial aerospace concept retreated after a peak, with Aerospace Machinery hitting the daily limit down. The film industry concept saw multiple stocks decline, with Bona Film Group experiencing two consecutive limit-downs [3]. Institutional Insights - According to Furuang Fund, following the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points (as expected), while the European Central Bank remained unchanged. This policy divergence has caused short-term fluctuations in global capital markets. Looking ahead, with the Fed's December rate cut and the implementation of domestic policies, the medium-term trend for A-shares remains positive. Notably, at last week's market low, there was a significant net subscription for broad-based ETFs like CSI 300 and A500, indicating strong market resilience. In a volatile market, structural rotation is accelerating, and there is a need to be cautious of a potential style shift from growth to value. The current recommendation is to focus on high-growth sectors for next year, particularly in AI computing and applications, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, as well as sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as new energy, steel, and non-ferrous metals, which are expected to see valuation recovery due to improved policy environments [4]. - According to Yinhua Fund, the current position in the profit cycle is low, with ROE declining for 18 consecutive quarters, although the downward trend is showing signs of slowing. The inventory cycle has also reached an inflection point. The number of sectors showing signs of recovery is increasing. Short-term trading activity has decreased significantly, with trading volumes around 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating a phase of low market sentiment. The outlook remains optimistic under the assumption of weak recovery by 2026. In terms of style/sector, the preference remains for growth over value, with small caps slightly outperforming large caps throughout the year. If recovery expectations strengthen, large-cap stocks may see a temporary return to favor. Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), military industry, resource products, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [5]. News Highlights - In Fujian Pingtan, a new round of customs operations is entering a critical phase, with three major sectors being accelerated. The new customs operations will clarify the main island of Pingtan as a customs supervision area, facilitating more convenient customs measures. The approach has shifted from "loosening" to "opening," allowing for easier movement of people and goods, thereby enhancing the level of openness. The industrial orientation is also clearer, aligning with the construction of an international tourism island and the demand for opening up [6]. Trading Volume Milestone - The A-share market has set a new record, with total trading volume exceeding 405 trillion yuan as of December 22, 2025, marking the first time annual trading volume has surpassed 400 trillion yuan. The overall turnover rate has also improved, with an average turnover rate close to 1.74%, potentially reaching a new high since 2016. Notably, 19 individual stocks have seen annual trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Dongfang Fortune, and Xinyisheng exceeding 20 trillion yuan; while stocks like Hanwujishi-U, Ningde Times, and Shenghong Technology have exceeded 18 trillion yuan [7].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile rise in the morning session, with the ChiNext index increasing by nearly 1%. The market showed significant differentiation between sectors, with a total trading volume of 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 52.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Despite this, over 3,300 stocks in the market declined [1][3]. Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain saw rapid strength, with stocks such as Tianji Co. and Tianci Materials hitting the daily limit. The non-ferrous tungsten concept also performed actively, with Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten both reaching the daily limit. The semiconductor equipment sector continued its strong performance, with Shenghui Integration achieving a historical high with two consecutive limit-up days. Conversely, the commercial aerospace concept experienced a pullback, with Aerospace Machinery hitting the daily limit down. The film and theater sector saw multiple stocks decline, with Bona Film Group experiencing two consecutive limit-down days [3]. Closing Summary - By the end of the session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index was up by 0.78%. The leading sectors in terms of gains included batteries, photolithography machines, and precious metals, while tourism, education, and the film and theater sectors faced the largest declines [3].

Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile upward trend on December 23, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 1% and a significant divergence between the yellow and white lines. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 52.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.78% [1] Sector Performance - The battery, photolithography, and precious metals sectors showed the highest gains, while tourism, education, and film industry sectors experienced the largest declines [1] - The lithium battery industry chain saw rapid growth, with companies like Tianji Co. and Tianci Materials hitting the daily limit [1] - The non-ferrous and tungsten sectors were active, with Xianglu Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten both reaching the daily limit [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector continued its strong performance, with Shenghui Integration achieving a historical high after two consecutive limit-up days [1] - Conversely, the commercial aerospace sector faced a pullback, with Aerospace Machinery falling to the daily limit, and the film industry sector saw multiple stocks, including Bona Film Group, hit consecutive limit-downs [1] Trading Statistics - The limit-up performance rate was recorded at 67%, with 39 stocks hitting the limit and 19 stocks touching the limit [3] - The opening rate was 70%, with a profit rate of 1.86% [3]