查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 本周A股市场收涨 本周A股市场收涨。本周A股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中小100等指数涨幅居前，上证50、上证指 数涨幅靠后。从估值来看，当前科创50、万得全A等指数估值分位数相对偏高，截至2025年11月28日，其 2010年以来PE(TTM)分位数均高于80%。 本周小盘成长风格占优，申万一级行业大多收涨，通信、电子等行业涨幅靠前，而石油石化、银行等行业 跌幅居前。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数大多收涨，仅大盘价值收跌，小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居 前。分行业来看，申万一级行业大多收涨，通信、电子、综合等行业涨幅靠前，而石油石化、银行、煤炭 等行业跌幅居前。 报告摘要 市场大方向或仍处在牛市中，不过短期或进入宽幅震荡阶段。与往年牛 ...

Group 1 - Southbound capital has significantly increased, with a cumulative net purchase of HK stocks reaching HKD 1.38 trillion this year, marking a record high [1] - The Hang Seng Index has seen an annual increase of nearly 30%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has risen over 25% this year, driven by southbound capital [1] - ETF fund flows indicate a positive buying attitude towards HK stocks, with increased net purchases as the market fluctuates in the second half of the year [1] Group 2 - The newly launched Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (159118) provides a convenient tool for investors to access HK stocks with dividends and low volatility [1] - The ETF tracks the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index, which includes top stocks from various sectors such as metals, coal, real estate, and finance, with the top ten stocks accounting for about 30% of the index [1] - The S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index has shown strong historical performance, with a cumulative return of 102.71% since 2021, outperforming the Hang Seng Index and other dividend indices [2] Group 3 - The index has maintained an upward trend in dividend yield since 2017, currently offering a yield of 5.76%, appealing to investors focused on dividend income [2] - The ETF has a low annual management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, making it one of the lowest fee options in the market for similar products [2]

| ● 国内金融市场 ● | | | | ● 股指期货 · | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 品种 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | 3864.18 | -0.15% | 上证当月连续 | 2964.60 | 0.14% | | 深证成指 | 12907.83 | 1.02% | 沪深当月连续 | 4493.00 | 0.42% | | 创业板指 | 3044.69 | 2.14% | 恒生期货指数 | 33496.27 | 0.20% | 宏观消息汇总 1。工业和信息化部发布关于组织开展卫星物联网业务商用试 验的通知 我们不是资讯的搬运工 而是有态度的发现者 万和财富早班车 2025年11月27日 2. AI需求强劲成长半导体产业有望步入"需求复苏+技术创新"周 期,相关个股:南大光电(300346)、江丰电子(300666)等 3. 鼓励政府部门扩大商业航天服务采购 商业航天板块近期迎密 集催化,相关个股:航天智装(300455)、北化股份(002246)等 1。甘李药业(603087):博凡格鲁肽注射液正式启 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market rebounded due to multiple factors including rising interest rate expectations, improved external relations, and stabilization of the US stock market, with the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) rising by 0.44% and attracting a net inflow of 274 million yuan over the last five trading days [1] - Market risk appetite has entered a "small platform period," with high dividend asset allocation becoming more attractive as the TMT sector reaches a historical high in fund positions while recent market inflows remain limited, indicating a potential shift towards high dividend sectors [3] - The latest ten-year government bond yield is at 1.83%, while the CSI Dividend Index shows a dividend yield of 4.85%, highlighting the relative attractiveness of high dividend values [4] Group 2 - The high dividend signal system, based on the trends of high dividend sectors, interbank market transaction volumes, and term spreads, continues to issue bullish signals [3] - There is an expectation for a rebound in the fourth quarter regarding the previously overestimated impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, suggesting a potential strengthening of value styles over growth styles [3] - Long-term funds are expected to focus on dividend-paying sectors and traditional sectors related to the "anti-involution" theme, as well as the consumer sector [4]

| 序号 代码 | | 名称 | O | 最新 | 总市值 | 涨幅％ 1 | 年初 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601009 | 南京银行 | 1 | 11.64 | 1439亿 | 2.65 | | | 2 | 601998 | 中信银行 | 1 | 7.91 | 4402亿 | 246 | | | 3 | 601328 | 交通银行 | 1 | 7.72 | 6822亿 | 2.12 | | 农业银行此前走出"14连阳"行情，截至11月25日收盘，收盘价为8.07元/股。据东方财富choice数据，农行年初至今涨幅近58%，居板块首位。对于农业银行 本轮行情，资深金融监管政策专家周毅钦曾向记者分析谈到，其核心逻辑仍以估值修复为主，尚未切换为成长属性定价。一方面当前仍以低估值与高股息的 吸引力为主。农行股息率显著高于国债收益率，叠加市场避险情绪升温，险资、公募等长期资金持续加仓，推动估值向合理区间回归。 "另外一方面是基本面韧性提供支撑。农行上半年财报数据稳健，存款成本低、不良率可控的护城河优势强化了安全垫，但成长属性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market continues to show strength, particularly in the technology sector, with significant movements in the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF, indicating positive investor sentiment and potential growth opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 2%, while the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF (520560) saw an intraday increase of more than 1.2%, recovering above the 5-day moving average [1]. - The Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF has attracted a total of 30.68 million yuan in the past five days, reflecting strong capital inflow and positive outlook for the sector [1]. - Notable stock performances include Xiaomi Group up over 4%, Kuaishou up over 3%, and Alibaba and SMIC both rising over 2% [1]. Group 2: Dividend and Earnings Outlook - Major state-owned banks in China are initiating mid-term dividends, with a total payout of 204.657 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 80% of the total mid-term dividends from all listed banks [2]. - The upcoming earnings report from Alibaba is anticipated, with its Qianwen APP achieving over 10 million downloads in just one week, surpassing other AI applications [1][2]. - Analysts are optimistic about Alibaba's AI application strategy, predicting significant growth potential for the Qianwen APP within Alibaba's business ecosystem [1]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests that a "barbell strategy" is optimal for investors, balancing between growth and dividend stocks, aligning with the "policy support + technological breakthrough" narrative [2]. - The valuation of the Hong Kong Large Cap 30 ETF is favorable, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 1.09, indicating a higher safety margin and potential for valuation recovery [2]. - The ETF provides a diversified exposure to core assets in the Hong Kong market, minimizing individual stock selection risks [4].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Global Market Trends**: Recent adjustments in global risk assets, particularly in US stocks and Bitcoin, with significant declines noted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below its upward trend line, but the Federal Reserve's signals of easing have reduced the risk of further declines in the short term [3][1]. Key Points by Industry Transportation Sector - **Impact of Japan-China Relations**: The transportation sector faced challenges due to reduced flights on Japan-China routes. However, the three major airlines were minimally affected as this route only accounts for a small percentage of their total flights. Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines experienced larger adjustments, while Huaxia Airlines remained unaffected [5][1]. Express Delivery Industry - **October Data and Financial Performance**: The express delivery sector showed positive trends with October data and ZTO's Q3 financial report. YTO Express had the fastest growth rate at 13%, while Shentong Express grew by over 4%, and Yunda Express saw a decline of 5%. The overall outlook for the sector remains optimistic, with expectations of continued growth into Q1 2026 [6][1]. Shipping Industry - **Freight Rates and Future Outlook**: The shipping sector saw freight rates reach multi-year highs before a slight correction. The peak season may last longer than expected, with further potential for rate increases. Key companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Hainan Airlines [7][8]. Chemical Industry - **Current Market Conditions**: The CCPI index remained stable, while crude oil prices fell, leading to a decline in the chemical output index. The fourth quarter is typically a demand lull, with price sustainability needing validation in Q1 2026. Key sub-sectors include polyester filament and viscose staple fiber, with specific companies recommended for investment [11][12][17]. Lithium and Battery Materials - **Price Increases and Demand**: Lithium hexafluorophosphate prices surged to 167,000 CNY/ton, with significant increases in electrolyte and additive prices. The demand for energy storage is expected to drive profitability, with a recovery anticipated in 2026. Recommended companies include Sinoma Technology and Lianhua Technology [14][12]. Coal Industry - **Market Performance and Future Expectations**: The coal sector experienced a significant drop of 5.67%, with some companies like China Shenhua showing resilience. Despite short-term declines, the long-term fundamentals remain unchanged, and there are opportunities in quality stocks [21][22]. Organic Silicon and Soda Ash - **Market Dynamics**: The organic silicon industry reached a consensus on production cuts, with prices rising. The soda ash market saw price increases following production halts. Both sectors are expected to improve significantly by 2026, with key companies highlighted for investment [16][12]. Additional Insights - **Investor Confidence**: Jitu International's management has been actively repurchasing shares to bolster investor confidence, particularly in Southeast Asia and emerging markets [9][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call emphasized focusing on high dividend-paying coal companies and other resilient sectors, suggesting a strategic approach to navigating potential market fluctuations [25][10]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape across various industries.

Market Overview - The recent global market downturn, driven by heightened risk aversion, has led to a significant adjustment in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points [2][3] - Key sectors such as new energy, photovoltaic, and power equipment have experienced notable pullbacks, while banking, shipbuilding, and consumer sectors have shown relative resilience [2] External Influences - The adjustment in the A-share market is primarily attributed to external factors, including concerns over the "AI bubble," a retreat in expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a cautious shift in market sentiment [3][4] - The volatility in global risk assets has been exacerbated by year-end fund settlement periods, prompting some investors to lock in profits and rankings through selling [3] Fundamental Support - Despite recent market fluctuations, the fundamental factors supporting the current rally in the Chinese stock market remain intact, including steady macroeconomic recovery, improved competitiveness of key industries, and enhanced capital market positioning [4][5] - The adjustment is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a fundamental shift in market dynamics, with expectations for a potential recovery as market sentiment stabilizes [4] Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustment presents a strategic opportunity for investors to reposition their portfolios ahead of the anticipated spring market rally in 2026 [6] - There is a consensus among institutions that the internal certainties of the Chinese market, such as new growth momentum and clear policy direction, will not be adversely affected by external disturbances [5][6] - Following the adjustment, sectors such as banking and insurance, along with consumer stocks with stable fundamentals, may present rotation opportunities before the technology sector regains momentum [6]

Market Performance - The ChiNext 50 Index fell by 5.54% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 6.15% over the last five trading days, while the large-cap indices showed a decline of 1.73% for the large-cap value and 4.25% for the large-cap growth [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.90%, and the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 fell by 6.24%, with banks and media sectors performing relatively well, while power equipment and conglomerates lagged behind [1] Valuation Levels - As of November 21, 2025, the static PE ratio of the CSI All Share Index is at the 76th percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 76% and 71% respectively, indicating that the ChiNext Index is close to the 46th percentile, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 58% and 51% respectively [1] ETF Fund Flows - In the last five trading days, ETF inflows amounted to 40.2 billion yuan, while margin trading decreased by approximately 13.6 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.8473 trillion yuan across the two markets [2] Thematic Indexes - The latest thematic allocations include energy and high dividend strategies, specifically focusing on the CSI Energy Index, CSI Select High Dividend Strategy Index, and CSI Tourism Theme Index [2][3] Market Sentiment - The report includes observations on the proportion of stocks above the 200-day moving average, indicating market sentiment trends [11] Risk Preference Tracking - The report tracks the risk preferences between equity and bond assets, providing insights into investor behavior [12] Financing Balance - The report discusses the changes in financing balances, which reflect market liquidity and investor sentiment [14]

证券时报记者 毛军 受外围市场大幅震荡，以及上证指数月线连续6个月上涨积累大量获利盘的影响，本周A股出现年内第二大周线级 别调整。上证指数跌破3900点，深证成指跌破13000点，创业板指、上证50双双失守3000点大关。 本周，日成交均萎缩至2万亿元以下，全周成交9.33万亿元，较上周减少近9000亿元。从分类指数来看，微盘股缩 量最为明显，环比减少约15%。 展望后市，渤海证券指出，A股短期由外部风险释放带来指数层面的调整。就现阶段而言，行情总体风险适中，监 管强调"坚决防止市场大起大落、急涨急跌"的背景下，市场不具有持续下跌的基础，市场调整为资金重新布局提 供了窗口期。若未来有增量利好政策出台，将有望推动政策主线或科技主线的展开。 太平洋证券表示，目前海外股市表现更弱，多个主要经济体如德国、英国、美国股市皆已转弱，建议投资者谨慎 为上。即使A股进入中期调整，但长期的上涨趋势预计不变，建议投资者采取高筑墙（红利），广积粮（降低仓 位），缓称王（等待时机）的策略。从近几日的行情来看，热点板块的持续性普遍不佳，仍建议投资者以避险的 高股息红利为主，留出仓位等待未来的加仓时机。 虽然银行股近年来连续上涨，但整体 ...