Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the July CPI data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which is lower than expected, leading to speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The July CPI data revealed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, both slightly above expectations [2][5] - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, while food prices remained stable and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [5] Group 2 - The political context includes President Trump's criticism of the Labor Statistics Bureau, which has led to the dismissal of its director and the nomination of a critic as the new director [6] - Market expectations indicate a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, up from 74% before the report [9] - The overall market reaction to the CPI data was positive, with stock index futures rising and bond yields falling, suggesting that traders had anticipated worse inflation figures [10]

凯投宏观：澳储行或将维持每季度一次降息节奏 富国银行：7月CPI数据是检验关税冲击美国消费者钱包的关键 瑞银：预计美国7月核心CPI高于预期，通胀压力将逐步上升 瑞讯银行指出，美国11日宣布不会对进口黄金征收关税，这一消息促使瑞郎上涨。由于瑞士是全球主要 的黄金精炼中心，且已面临美国39%的关税，因此避免对黄金加征关税有助于防止对该国经济造成进一 步的负面影响。如果对黄金加征关税，将严重影响流向美国的黄金供应，这些供应主要来源于加拿大、 墨西哥和瑞士。保持这些供应渠道畅通符合美国的利益。 荷兰国际集团策略师表示，美国7月通胀数据符合预期，市场反应可能有限。投资者在未来数月内将继 续密切关注任何潜在的通胀风险信号。 英国商会公共政策副主任简·格拉顿（Jane Gratton）表示，尽管6月份含奖金的平均工资涨幅降至4.6%受 到企业欢迎，但持续较高的工资增长仍给企业运营带来重大挑战。劳动力成本依然是当前企业面临的最 大压力来源，尤其是全国保险费的上调，已导致部分企业不得不缩减招聘计划或进行裁员，以应对不断 上升的人力支出。格拉顿呼吁政府在即将发布的预算案中避免增加新的企业税负，强调保持企业发展的 活力对于保障就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, 東瀛游 (6882.HK), anticipates a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year, projecting approximately HKD 6 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 82% [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 34.12 million, translating to earnings per share of 6.79 cents [1] - The substantial drop in expected profits is attributed to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and escalating international trade disputes impacting the global economy [1] Market Conditions - The evolving tariff situation has increased uncertainty, severely disrupting global trade and investment [1] - Rumors of a major earthquake in Japan in July led to a sharp decline in tourism demand, significantly affecting the company's revenue and gross profit from tourism-related businesses [1] Business Segments - Despite the challenges in tourism, the company's hotel business performed satisfactorily, although overall net profit for the first half of the year still saw a significant reduction [1] - The company reassured that the rumored earthquake on July 5 did not occur and was confirmed to be unfounded [1] Future Outlook - The company expects a gradual recovery in the number of tourists traveling from Hong Kong to Japan in the coming months [1] - There is optimism regarding the improvement of tourism-related business in the second half of the year, alongside continued strong performance in the hotel segment [1]

太平洋投资管理公司（PIMCO）经济学家Tiffany Wilding表示，与关税相关的压力包含在CPI报告的某 些领域，这主要集中在商品领域，传导过程较慢，除此之外，通胀压力看起来非常可控。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest inflation report from the United States indicates that tariffs have not had a negative impact on the economy [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury advisor highlights that the recent inflation data continues to support the notion that tariffs are not detrimental [1]

Core Insights - PIMCO economist Tiffany Wilding indicates that tariff-related pressures are reflected in certain areas of the CPI report, primarily in the goods sector, with a slow transmission process [1] - Aside from this, inflationary pressures appear to be very manageable, which Wilding views as a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [1] Summary by Category - **Economic Indicators** - Tariff-related pressures are included in the CPI report, mainly affecting the goods sector [1] - The transmission of these pressures is noted to be slow [1] - **Inflation Outlook** - Overall inflationary pressures are considered to be very controllable [1] - This situation is interpreted as a favorable sign for the Federal Reserve [1]

Summary of RATIONAL (0FRJ) Update / Briefing August 12, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: RATIONAL AG - **Industry**: Commercial kitchen equipment manufacturing Key Financial Highlights - **Sales Revenue**: Grew by 4% in the first half of the year to €606 million, with Q2 growth at 5.5% [3] - **FX Impact**: Negative FX effects in Q2 adjusted growth rates to 5.5% for H1 and 8% for Q2 [3] - **EBIT Margin**: Expected to be negatively impacted in H2, with a forecasted margin range adjusted to 25-26% from an initial 25-27% [5][6] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - **Import Tariffs**: Estimated additional costs of €10 million for fiscal year 2025 due to US import tariffs, with €1 million incurred in H1 [5] - **Pricing Strategy**: No immediate pricing decisions made; potential price increases in response to competitor actions and tariff impacts are under consideration [6][10] - **Competitor Pricing**: Competitors, including Eunox, have reportedly increased prices by 5-15% [10] Market and Demand Insights - **US Market Dynamics**: The out-of-home business remains crucial, with rising costs (energy, labor, food) affecting customer operations [26] - **Customer Sentiment**: Customers are facing significant cost pressures, but the demand for energy-efficient equipment remains strong [27] - **Market Penetration**: The US market penetration for RATIONAL is around 10-15%, indicating room for growth against traditional cooking equipment [27] Future Outlook - **Guidance for Next Year**: No guidance provided for the next year until current year figures are announced; future guidance will depend on tariff decisions and pricing strategies [7] - **China Market**: Anticipated slow ramp-up for new products in China post-Chinese New Year, with no significant growth contribution expected initially [40][42] - **Manufacturing Considerations**: Ongoing assessments regarding establishing production facilities in the US due to tariff impacts and cost considerations [51][54] Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: RATIONAL holds a significant market share in the boiler unit segment, with competitors like Althussam potentially exiting this market [44] - **Product Differentiation**: Emphasis on the quality and efficiency of RATIONAL's products compared to lower-end alternatives [48] Additional Considerations - **Tariff Uncertainty**: Ongoing tariff changes create uncertainty in pricing and cost structures, impacting investment decisions among key accounts [63][66] - **Steel Tariffs**: Steel components account for less than 10% of sales, but tariffs on these components are a concern, albeit with a limited overall impact [70][71] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the RATIONAL briefing, highlighting financial performance, market dynamics, competitive positioning, and future outlook.

Group 1 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the July CPI inflation report, with expectations of a 0.2% month-over-month increase and a 2.8% year-over-year increase in CPI [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year [1] - Concerns have been raised regarding the credibility of BLS data following the dismissal of its director by Trump, which may undermine market confidence in U.S. government statistics [5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have warned that the upcoming data may be "hotter" than expected, with Goldman predicting a 0.27% month-over-month increase in overall CPI and a 0.33% increase in core CPI [6] - Specific contributions to core CPI are expected from new and used car prices, as well as from household and entertainment goods affected by tariffs [6] - The overall tariff rate on U.S. goods is approximately 15%, but the effective tariff rate on recent imports is only between 9% and 10%, indicating that the full impact of tariffs has yet to be felt by consumers [6] Group 3 - Predictions for December CPI suggest a potential rise to 3.0%-3.5% year-over-year, with core CPI possibly reaching 3.5%-4.0% [7] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point cut, influenced by recent weak employment data [8] - Market analysts suggest that higher tariffs and their economic impacts remain a significant concern, potentially leading to market adjustments, especially in the third quarter [9]

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为14.1%，降息25个基点的概率为85.9%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概 率为5.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为39.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为55.1%。 特朗普与普京将于8月15日在美国阿拉斯加州会晤。特朗普称与普京的会晤是一次试探性会晤。下一次 将与泽连斯基或与普京和泽连斯基举行会面;俄乌领土将发生变化。 【机构观点】 【基本面消息】 数据显示，8月12日上海黄金现货价格报价774.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（776.04元/克）贴水2.04 元/克。 特朗普声明:黄金不会被加征关税。②12日讯，中美再次暂停实施24%的关税90天。 特朗普团队将鲍曼、杰裴逊和洛根纳入美联储主席候选人之列，今秋有望公布主席人选。 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 8月12日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 776.04 | -1.12% | 194063 | 204736 | 银河期货：近期美国对瑞士黄金征收关税的事件被证明是 ...

与此同时，这场冲击波正向消费终端加速蔓延。美国研究机构安德森经济集团警告，汽车市场涨价潮已 进入倒计时，部分进口豪车及电动车涨幅或超1.2万美元，本土车也将上涨2000至3000美元。这一冲击 在次级市场或表现得更为明显，二手车价格和汽车维修成本将水涨船高。 有分析指出，关税绝非提升制造业的"万能解药"，在全球零部件供应链深度交织的当下，这种简单粗暴 的手段不仅难以强化本土制造，反而让那些扎根美国的企业沦为最大受害者。(经济日报记者孙昌岳) 美国挥舞的关税大棒正以戏剧性方式回击本土制造业。福特汽车最新公布的财报显示，公司因关税成本 在第二季度损失8亿美元，这是其自2023年以来首次出现季度亏损。通用汽车的财报也显示，第二季度 因关税损失11亿美元。旗下拥有克莱斯勒等多个美国汽车品牌的跨国车企斯泰兰蒂斯报告称因关税损失 3.5亿美元。三家巨头预测，2025年关税将给美国汽车业造成总计70亿美元的利润损失。 ...