2025年05月12日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 12 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需双弱，偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注逢高布空机会 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日开会情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 123,450 | -180 | -270 | -2,790 | 4,810 | -700 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,720 | 15 | 50 | -70 | -190 | -610 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 11 ...

主题与内容 进入2025年，全球可持续发展面临严峻挑战。计划2030年实现的发展目标，推进情况不及预期。 正值国际社会需要紧密合作、加速行动之时，美国新一届政府宣布退出"巴黎协定"，冻结美国国际开发署援助资金，并 了一波针对"多元、平等、包容"倡议的打压。在大西洋的另一边，欧洲正在考虑简化信息披露要求，引发了人们对欧洲 续立法倒退的担忧。政策风向的变化，也正在私营部门逐渐发酵。 ESG投资、影响力投资、绿色金融，何去何从？在这风口浪尖，我们邀请国内外嘉宾共话可持续发展的困境、出路与未来 2025中国社会责任投资高峰论坛 将于5月15日在上海举行，分论坛主题包括 影响力投资、产业链主导企业的社会价值、 市场与金融"五篇大文章"、乡村可持续发展 等。 为回馈广大第一财经会员，为大家争取到了 限量免费线下席位 ，现场聆听嘉宾对话，更有机会提问大咖！报名从速， 无！ 点击此处，立即报名 组织架构 联合主办： 中国普惠金融研究院 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院 第一财经研究院 承办单位： 仁达普惠（北京）咨询有限公司 语 言 论坛的工作语言为普通话和英语，会场将安排同声传译。 第一财经会员金选活动， 粉丝专属， 席位有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of saline-alkali land into productive agricultural areas in Weinan City is significantly supported by financial institutions, contributing to both ecological restoration and economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - The total area of saline-alkali land in Weinan City has decreased from 801,000 acres in 2011 to 462,000 acres in 2024 due to various drainage projects [1]. - Financial institutions have played a crucial role in supporting the restoration of saline-alkali land, turning previously unproductive areas into "new granaries" [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Innovation - The Agricultural Development Bank of Weinan has established a "three-level linkage" mechanism to enhance service efficiency and customer experience, focusing on the financing needs of saline-alkali land restoration projects [2]. - Innovative financing solutions have been developed to address the unique challenges of saline-alkali land projects, including cash flow models that leverage various funding sources [2]. Group 3: Financial Products and Services - Postal Savings Bank of Weinan has introduced various loan products tailored to local agricultural needs, including "online user loans" and "fruit loans," which have collectively reached a scale of 1.395 billion yuan [3]. - The Shaanxi Agricultural Credit Cooperative has optimized financial services for the winter jujube industry, significantly improving the loan application process and meeting the liquidity needs of farmers [4]. Group 4: Environmental Impact - The drainage and restoration projects in Weinan have successfully improved 627,000 acres of farmland, enhancing soil quality and restoring local ecosystems [4]. - The transformation of saline-alkali land has led to the development of diverse agricultural outputs, including grains, fruits, and aquaculture, reflecting a modern agricultural landscape [4].

（作者系北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院副教授） （文章来源：经济日报） 碳普惠是通过市场化机制激励个人、家庭、社区及中小微企业绿色减碳的创新模式，旨在将微观主体分 散的减碳行为转化为可用于碳足迹抵消、碳市场交易或多元激励兑换的"绿色权益"。近年来，我国在碳 普惠制度设计、平台建设、方法学开发和公众参与等方面取得了积极进展，各地相继出台综合性、领域 特色性碳普惠方法学，为减排量核算提供科学依据。数十个富有地方特色的数字碳普惠平台陆续上线， 如北京上线首个绿色生活碳普惠平台"绿色生活季"，上海推出了绿色出行一体化平台"随申行"，武汉打 造个人数字碳账户平台"武碳江湖"。平台实现个人碳减排量的计量与可视化，可用于兑换礼品礼券，还 支持将减排量捐赠至公益项目、参与"碳中和众筹"等活动。 拓展基于数字化碳普惠平台的应用场景，构建多元化激励机制和减排成果消纳渠道。鼓励政府部门、科 研机构、数字平台企业等加强协同合作，持续完善碳普惠平台的系统架构、底层方法学、核算标准和技 术支撑体系。充分运用物联网、区块链、人工智能等技术，提升对居民衣、食、住、行、用、游等全场 景低碳行为的数据采集、识别与处理能力，实现低碳行为可识别、可 ...

2025年05月11日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 11 日 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 观点与策略 | 镍：消息面扰动情绪，基本面变化有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：社会库存边际累增，盘面成本预期支撑 | 2 | | 工业硅：西南复产，基本面弱势 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单故事 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：终端需求回落，上游成本快速塌陷，偏弱震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：基本面逻辑或将镍价震荡区间收敛，市场消息扰动盘面情绪。首先，印尼高品位镍矿偏 紧，溢价边际上行 1-2 美金至 26-27 美金/湿吨，同比增加 15-16 美金。同时考虑到补库需求的影响，精 炼镍过剩预期下的短期累库不及预期，库存边际小幅去化，再叠加矿端推升一体化火法成本，镍价下方或 仍有托底。其次，5 月 9 日市场有消 ...

Core Insights - Tianjin Rural Commercial Bank reported total assets of 455.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.20% as of the end of 2024 [1] - The bank's net profit reached 2.946 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.98% [1] - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.5%, indicating enhanced asset quality [4] Financial Performance - Total liabilities amounted to 417.5 billion yuan, growing at 5.89% [1] - Operating income was 9.361 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.34% [1] - The bank's net interest income accounted for 73.73% of total income, while non-interest income made up 26.27%, showing an improvement in income structure [5] Business Strategy - The bank adheres to a "six-pronged" operational philosophy focusing on differentiated operations, specialized services, and digital empowerment [1] - It aims to optimize its business structure by concentrating on inclusive finance, elderly finance, and green finance [2] Sector-Specific Initiatives - In technology finance, the bank established specialized branches and increased loans to tech enterprises by 24%, reaching 19.887 billion yuan [2] - Green loans surged by 57% to 19.212 billion yuan, significantly outpacing overall loan growth [2] - Inclusive finance initiatives led to a 9.11% increase in loans to small and micro enterprises, totaling 37.857 billion yuan [2] Risk Management and Compliance - The bank's non-performing asset ratio decreased to 1.79%, and the provision coverage ratio improved to 200.31% [4] - Core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 11.74%, exceeding regulatory requirements by 4.24 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The bank plans to focus on optimizing asset structure, enhancing retail capacity, and improving digital financial capabilities in 2025 [5]

Group 1 - As of March 2025, Sichuan's banking sector assets reached 17.61 trillion yuan, liabilities at 17.02 trillion yuan, deposits at 13.76 trillion yuan, and loans at 12.49 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.29%, 8.37%, 9.34%, and 11.45% respectively [1] - The insurance sector in Sichuan achieved original insurance premium income of 109.93 billion yuan in the first quarter, ranking seventh nationwide [1] Group 2 - Sichuan's financial regulatory authority is guiding banking and insurance institutions to support local economic recovery by increasing financial resource allocation to key sectors and major projects [2] - The focus includes enhancing financing mechanisms for urban real estate, small and micro enterprises, and various financial product innovations [2] Group 3 - Personal consumer loan balances in Sichuan grew by 12.65% year-on-year as of March [3] - Manufacturing loans and high-tech industry loans increased by 8.67% and 19.5% respectively [3] - Agricultural loans in key areas saw significant growth, with rural financial services achieving 100% coverage in township banks and insurance [3] Group 4 - The city real estate financing coordination mechanism has been expanded, with 869 projects receiving credit of 282.18 billion yuan and loans of 259.51 billion yuan as of March [4] - Small and micro enterprise loans reached 4.56 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.76%, surpassing the overall loan growth rate [4] Group 5 - Sichuan has been included in national pilot programs for intellectual property financial ecosystems and technology enterprise mergers and acquisitions [5] - As of March, intellectual property pledge loans increased by 4.48% year-on-year, with a cumulative amount growth of 30.97% [5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The Shanghai Municipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Shanghai Stock Exchange held a performance briefing to enhance the quality of state-owned listed companies and strengthen investor relations [1][2] - The total market value of 94 state-owned listed companies in Shanghai reached 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 617.77 billion yuan or 28.52% from the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Company Highlights - Shanghai Port Group achieved a container throughput of 51.51 million TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, maintaining its position as the world's largest port for 15 consecutive years [3] - Shanghai Port Group's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14.95 billion yuan, a 13.3% increase year-on-year [3] - Huayi Group reported a revenue of 44.6 billion yuan, a 9.3% increase, and a net profit of 910 million yuan, up 5.8% [5][6] - Shanghai Pharmaceutical achieved a revenue of 275.25 billion yuan, a 5.75% increase, and a net profit of 4.55 billion yuan, a 20.82% increase [8][9] - Pudong Development Bank's net profit reached 45.3 billion yuan, a 23.31% increase, marking the highest growth in nearly 12 years [10][11] - China Pacific Insurance Group reported a revenue of 404.09 billion yuan, a 24.7% increase, and a net profit of 44.96 billion yuan, a 64.9% increase [13][14] - DataPort achieved a revenue of approximately 1.72 billion yuan, an 11.57% increase, and a net profit of approximately 132 million yuan, a 7.49% increase [15][16] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Shanghai Port Group is focusing on digital, intelligent, and green transformation to enhance its core business and sustainable development capabilities [3][4] - Huayi Group is advancing major technological projects and has filed 151 patents, with 134 granted [6][7] - Shanghai Pharmaceutical is optimizing its R&D system and has established a new innovation center to accelerate the development of a collaborative ecosystem [8][9] - Pudong Development Bank is implementing a digital finance strategy and enhancing its service efficiency through various digital platforms [10][11] - China Pacific Insurance is expanding its green insurance offerings and enhancing its technology-driven services [13][14] - DataPort is deepening its IDC service capabilities and has been recognized as a top service provider in the industry [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The successful issuance of the first green financial bond by Guoyin Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in promoting green finance and supporting China's "dual carbon" strategy [1]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance scale is 3 billion yuan, with a term of 3 years and a coupon rate of 1.84%, representing the lowest coupon rate for the issuer's financial bonds [1]. - This issuance is the issuer's first green financial bond, highlighting its commitment to sustainable finance [1]. Group 2: Company Background and Market Position - Guoyin Financial Leasing Co., Ltd. is a leasing company controlled by the China Development Bank, with a strong brand presence in sectors such as aircraft, shipping, regional development leasing, inclusive finance, and green energy [1]. - The company holds a leading position in the domestic leasing industry [1]. Group 3: Commitment to Green Development - The company integrates social responsibility into its development strategy, actively supporting the green transformation of traditional industries and expanding its involvement in clean energy projects [1]. - The issuance of this bond enhances the issuer's capacity for green financial services and contributes to the high-quality development of green finance, aiding in the construction of a beautiful China [1]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The successful bond issuance strengthens the partnership between the issuer and the underwriter, enhancing the latter's influence in the green financial bond sector [1]. - The company plans to continue deepening its engagement in the bond market, serving the real economy, and supporting major national development strategies [1].

2025年05月09日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：库存小幅去化，绝对值偏高制约反弹 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势状态，关注市场情绪 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单注销，市场情绪进一步发酵 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）据 3 月 18 日钢联资讯，经过 1-2 月的减产，目前印尼 GNI 镍铁项目产线已逐步恢复，产能利用率 在 3 月内从三成增至五成，预计该工厂 3 月内产量增加约 0.2 万金属吨/月。4 月该工厂将继续提高产能 利用率，计划 4 月底实现正常生产状态。 2）印尼政府近期对非税国家收入提出相关调整建议，镍矿、镍铁、镍生铁和镍锍资源税率分别由 10%、 2%、5%和 2%提高至浮动区间 14%-19%、5%-7%、 ...