Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to show a slight increase in inflation, with a month-over-month rise of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase from 2.7% to 2.8% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, marking the highest level since February [1] Inflation Expectations - Various financial institutions have provided forecasts for July CPI, with a median expectation of 0.24% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year for overall CPI, and 0.31% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year for core CPI [2] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices is a key focus, with Wells Fargo noting that the data will help assess the extent to which tariff increases have affected consumer wallets [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates a high probability (89%) of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by weak job growth and inflation data that is not expected to be excessively hot [7] - Goldman Sachs suggests that as long as core CPI does not exceed 0.44% month-over-month, the market will view tariffs as a short-term influence, limiting their impact on rate cut expectations [6] Market Reactions - The stock market is expected to react significantly to the CPI data, with potential volatility reaching 0.70%, the highest since May [11] - If core CPI exceeds 0.40%, the S&P 500 could decline by more than 2% to 2.75%, while lower inflation readings could lead to gains [13] Data Quality Concerns - There are concerns regarding the quality of CPI data collection, as the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has reduced its data collection efforts, leading to increased volatility in monthly data [9]

今日周二(8月12日)欧盘时段，现货白银目前交投于37.86一线上方，今日开盘于37.60美元/盎司，截至发稿，现货白银暂 报37.88美元/盎司，上涨0.75%，最高触及37.95美元/盎司，最低下探37.47美元/盎司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向 看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 6月份，由关税驱动的成本压力迹象已经出现，服装价格在连续数月下降后环比上涨0.4%，鞋类价格上涨0.7%。家具和 床上用品价格也上涨了0.4%，扭转了5月份0.8%的跌幅，这是这些更高成本开始传导至消费者的又一个信号。 【最新现货白银行情解析】 现货白银收长阴线，日线RSI继续回落，4小时正式下破震荡区间下沿38，进一步回踩37.50附近支撑，短线趋势偏空，但 空头力量有限，空单建议谨慎持有。今日白银下方关注37.50美元或37.20美元支撑，上方关注37.90美元或38.10美元阻 力。 周二的这份报告发布之际，正值持续的贸易动态可能进一步改变美国有效关税税率的背景下。根据耶鲁大学预算实验室 的最新估算，该税率目前徘徊在18.6%附近——为1933年以来的最高水平。 未来几个月，高盛预计关税将继续推高月度通胀，并预测月度核心CPI ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures are experiencing a decline, while international precious metals are showing an upward trend, indicating a divergence in market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in different regions [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - As of August 12, domestic precious metal futures are all in the red, with the main Shanghai gold contract priced at 777.30 CNY per gram, down 0.96%, and the main Shanghai silver contract at 9213.00 CNY per kilogram, down 0.34% [1]. - The opening price for the main Shanghai gold contract was 777.52 CNY per gram, with a high of 778.78 CNY and a low of 775.62 CNY [2]. Group 2: International Market Performance - In contrast, international precious metals are all in the green, with COMEX gold priced at 3399.30 USD per ounce, up 0.17%, and COMEX silver at 37.94 USD per ounce, up 0.78% [1]. - The opening price for COMEX gold was 3399.60 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 3408.70 USD and a low of 3393.00 USD [2]. Group 3: Market Influences - Recent comments from U.S. President Trump stating "gold will not be taxed" have clarified previous confusion regarding tariffs on gold imports, which had caused a spike in gold prices [3]. - The upcoming U.S. CPI data release is anticipated to provide insights into potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could influence gold prices positively if inflation is lower than expected [4].

Trade Actions - The Ministry of Commerce initiates an anti-dumping investigation into imported pea starch from Canada [1] - The dumping investigation period spans from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024 [1] - The industry damage investigation period covers January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2024 [1] - China to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian canola oil, oilseed cake, and peas starting March 20, 2025 [2] - China to impose 25% tariffs on aquatic products and pork from Canada starting March 20, 2025 [2]

关税压力显现 6月份，由关税驱动的成本压力迹象已经出现，服装价格在连续数月下降后环比上涨0.4%，鞋类价格上 涨0.7%。家具和床上用品价格也上涨了0.4%，扭转了5月份0.8%的跌幅，这是这些更高成本开始传导至 消费者的又一个信号。 "7月份的CPI将带来更多关于更高关税推高价格的迹象，"富国银行经济学家Sarah House上周写道，"现 在仍处于价格调整过程的早期阶段，尚不清楚更高的进口税最终将如何在终端客户、国内销售商和外国 出口商之间分配。" AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 由于零售商逐渐提高了各种进口关税较高的商品的价格，美国7月通胀可能略有回升。 北京时间周二晚8点30分，市场普遍预计，7月份整体CPI预计将同比增长2.8%，高于6月份2.7%的涨 幅。受汽油价格下降和食品通胀温和放缓的预期推动，环比预计将上涨0.2%，略低于6月份0.3%的增 幅。 在剔除了波动的食品和能源价格的核心通胀上，7月份的年化通胀率预计将从6月份的2.9%微升至 3.0%，这表明商品通胀的上升已不再被服务业通胀的缓解所抵消，环比通胀也将攀升0.3%，超过6月份 0.2%的涨幅，标志着六个月来 ...

| FEEHING | 贵金属日评20250812:特朗普为美俄会晤预期成果降温,关注周二晚美国消费端通胀CPI | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-05 | 收盘价 | 779. 48 | 787.80 | 782. 50 | -8. 32 | -3.02 | | | | | 成交量 | 251828.00 | 26, 246. 00 | 278074.00 | 193353.00 | 84, 721. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | -8, 677.00 | 220321.00 | 218652. 00 | 211644.00 | -7,008.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 36009.00 | 0. 00 | 36. 00 | ...

对全球贸易的乐观情绪提振了蓝筹股指数，日本日经225指数创历史新高， 8月12日，日经225指数一路上行，截至发稿前涨2.68%，至42942.28点。 汽车行业约占日本8%的劳动力，是薪资增长的风向标。据日本共同社8月7日报道，受美国政府的汽车关税影响，丰田、本田等日本七大汽车制造商预计 在2025财年(2025年4月至2026年3月)合计减少营业利润约2.67万亿日元(约合人民币1302亿元)，减利规模相当于七家车企上一财年营业利润总额的三成 多。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师蒂姆.沃特尔(Tim Waterer)表示，日本与美国达成协议"为投资者带来了一些确定性"。 此外，日本共同社10日发布的一项调查显示，在美国对日加征关税给经济带来不确定性的形势下，仅有大约三分之一的日本大企业预期日本经济会继续增 长，而在今年1月调查时，作此判断的企业达七成。 8月8日，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，美国确认将停止对日本叠加征收普遍性关税，并按照承诺削减汽车关税。 日本政府7日发布更新版的2025财年实际国内生产总值增长预期数据，从先前预期的1.2%下调至0.7%，主要归因于美国加征关税。 此前，根据美日关 ...

Gold Market - President Trump stated that gold imports will not face U.S. tariffs, putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data was weak, and the Labor Department revised down employment data for the past two months, indicating a poor job market that may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [2] - The soft employment data has led more Federal Reserve officials to focus on the timing of rate cuts and to create forward guidance for the market, which could support gold prices [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihao believes that unless the upcoming CPI data shows a significant increase, the Federal Reserve is likely to restart rate cuts in September [2] - On the technical side, the previous trading day saw a decline from a high position and closed with a bearish candle, indicating a weak short-term trend. The market is testing the 62-day moving average, and if it stabilizes, there may be further upward opportunities. Key support is noted at $3,330 [2] Oil Market - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tax rate to 50%. India has indicated a willingness to reduce oil imports from Russia as part of a tariff resolution, which could significantly decrease Russian oil exports [4] - According to a Reuters survey, OPEC's oil production increased by 270,000 barrels per day in July, not reaching the previously planned production increase levels, suggesting that supply may provide short-term support for oil prices [5] - While supply may support oil prices in the short term, the long-term outlook suggests that OPEC+ is likely to gradually increase production, maintaining the risk of oversupply [5] - On the technical side, the previous trading day showed a low-level adjustment with a small bullish candle, indicating a potential stabilization of the current downtrend. The market is operating below the 20-day moving average, overall showing weakness. Key resistance is at $65, and support is at $63 [5]

Group 1 - Trump's statement on social media suggests that gold will not be subject to tariffs, potentially leading to increased market pessimism as uncertainty is removed [1] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection's recent announcement regarding tariffs on gold imports has shocked traders, with tariffs applicable to both 1 kg and 100 oz gold bars [1] - Hopes for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may also be negatively impacting gold prices, especially with Trump's scheduled meeting with President Putin [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that if inflation data this week is slightly higher than expected, it could ease market concerns about a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which would be unfavorable for gold [2] - Conversely, if inflation cools, it may strengthen market bets on a rate cut next month, but any signs that Trump's tariff measures are pushing prices higher could delay such a cut [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with the price recently breaking below its 20-period and 100-period simple moving averages (SMA), currently around $3378 per ounce [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold levels, suggesting potential further declines if the price breaks below the 200-period SMA [3] Group 4 - Current resistance levels for gold are identified at $3357, $3371, and $3380, while support levels are at $3341, $3320, and $3300 [4] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% over a period exceeding three years [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold: Tariff false alarm affects price spread [2] - Silver: Minor rebound [2] - Copper: Strong domestic spot prices support the price [2] - Zinc: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Lead: Reduced smelting output supports the price [2] - Tin: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [2] - Alumina: Slight upward movement in a sideways trend [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: The supporting logic at the ore end weakens, and the logic at the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Intensified tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with steel prices oscillating [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Gold and silver prices declined, with Comex gold 2510 down 1.87% and Comex silver 2510 down 2.25% [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes of gold and silver futures decreased, and open interests also showed changes [5] - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 5, and SLV silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 68 [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Comex gold inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 83,720 ounces, and Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) increased by 370,507 ounces [5] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of gold and silver showed different degrees of change [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1 [7] Copper - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.68%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk fell 0.42% [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 27,135, and the open interest increased by 3,992 [9] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,003 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 150 tons [9] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of copper showed different degrees of change [9] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.33%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.66% [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 6,337, and the open interest decreased by 1,509 [12] - **Price Spread and Inventory Changes**: Various price spreads and inventory of zinc showed different degrees of change [12] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14] Lead - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.24%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk fell 0.17% [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 4,615, and the open interest decreased by 4,728 [15] - **Price Spread and Inventory Changes**: Various price spreads and inventory of lead showed different degrees of change [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15] Tin - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.22%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk rose 0.33% [18] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 10,109, and the open interest decreased by 117 [18] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 143 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 40 tons [18] - **Price Spread Changes**: Various price spreads of tin showed different degrees of change [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is -1 [24] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract, alumina main contract, and cast aluminum alloy main contract showed different price changes [25] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes and open interests of these contracts showed different degrees of change [25] - **Inventory and Price Spread Changes**: Inventory and price spreads of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change [25] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless steel main contract showed price increases [28] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes and open interests of these contracts showed different degrees of change [28] - **Industry News**: There were news about nickel export threats, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension in the nickel and stainless steel industries [28][29][30] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [32]