Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that consumption is the ultimate demand and a lasting driver of economic growth, with the central economic work conference prioritizing "domestic demand-led growth" as the main task for the upcoming year [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to see strong momentum and broad space for consumption development, with new consumption growth points emerging around product quality, service expansion, digital upgrades, and green health [5][9] - The transition in consumer behavior is characterized by a shift from goods to a balance of goods and services, an upgrade in quality from basic consumption to durable goods and service consumption, and a diversification of needs supported by digital technology [15][17] Group 2 - The need for a strategic approach to boost consumption is highlighted, emphasizing that it is a collective effort involving government, enterprises, and residents to create a better consumption environment and higher quality products and services [9] - The importance of improving the income distribution system and social security measures is stressed, including stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, increasing labor compensation, and reforming pension systems [9] - The low-altitude economy is identified as a new demand driver, with the development of eVTOL technology leading to new business opportunities in areas such as air travel and tourism [11] Group 3 - The rise of service consumption is noted, with increasing demand in sectors like healthcare, tourism, and digital consumption, as well as a reduction in consumption disparities between urban and rural areas [17] - The insurance sector is experiencing a shift from pure risk coverage to service-oriented offerings, with clients seeking additional services alongside traditional insurance products [19] - The emergence of new sales channels and consumer engagement methods is transforming the market, with a focus on personalized solutions and sustainable products [21][23]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a slight rebound, with significant inflows into consumer ETFs, indicating a positive sentiment in the consumer sector [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) saw a 0.38% increase, with trading volume exceeding 230 million yuan, and a net subscription of 10 million units during the day [1] Economic Policy Insights - The 2025 Economic Work Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand as a top priority, focusing on boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures [3] - The supply side will control new increments and activate existing stock, while the demand side will implement measures to release rigid and improvement needs of residents [3] Sector Performance - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumer sector also showed positive performance, with the Hong Kong Consumer 50 ETF (159268) rising nearly 1% and attracting over 40 million yuan in net inflows over the past five days [3] - Key consumer stocks such as Li Ning and Anta Sports saw gains of over 4%, while others like Haidilao experienced slight increases [3] Investment Strategy - China Galaxy Securities suggests focusing on defensive sectors, high dividends, and consumer recovery themes in December, given the backdrop of important policy meetings and potential interest rate cuts [6] - The market may enter a wide fluctuation phase, with an emphasis on defensive and consumer sectors in the short term, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are recommended for mid-term focus [6] Industry Trends - The food and beverage sector has faced five consecutive years of decline, but historical trends suggest potential for reversal after prolonged downturns [7] - The Consumer ETF (159928) is currently at a TTM P/E ratio of 19.39, indicating a high valuation attractiveness compared to historical levels [8] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, structural opportunities are expected to arise from channel differentiation and supply upgrades, with a moderate recovery in overall demand [13] - Consumer confidence is gradually improving, with notable growth in specific categories such as electrolyte drinks and health foods, indicating potential growth areas [20] Fund Performance - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation and fund holdings, highlighting its potential investment value [18] - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with significant weight in leading consumer stocks [21]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the ChiNext Index increasing by over 1% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 987 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] Sector Performance - The technology sector rebounded strongly, with lithium mining and CPO concept stocks leading the gains. The communication equipment, fertilizer and pesticide, and tourism hotel sectors also showed significant increases [3] - Conversely, previously high-performing sectors such as the Hainan Free Trade Zone and commercial aerospace experienced declines [3] Notable Stocks - Lithium mining stocks surged, with companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy, Dazhong Mining, and Jinyuan Co. hitting the daily limit of 10% increase. Other notable performers included Salt Lake Co. and Ganfeng Lithium, which rose by over 4% and 7% respectively [10] - The tourism hotel sector also saw significant gains, with Qujiang Cultural Tourism and Nanjing Commercial Travel both reaching the daily limit of 10% increase [13] New Listings - Muxi Co. debuted with a remarkable increase of 687.79%, making it the most profitable new stock since the full registration system was implemented in A-shares [7][8] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both rose, while the Hang Seng Technology and Hang Seng Biotechnology indices experienced slight declines. Major stocks like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan saw increases [4][5] CPO Sector - The CPO sector experienced a significant rise, with stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng increasing by 3.52% and 6.46% respectively [18][20] Consumer Sector - The commercial retail sector was active, with stocks such as Li Qun Co. and Baida Group reaching the daily limit of 10% increase. The central financial office emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key task for the upcoming year [16]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the primary task for 2026, marking a shift from short-term demand expansion to establishing a long-term mechanism for sustainable growth [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand as a Priority - The meeting prioritizes expanding effective demand, particularly domestic demand, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing growth and driving high-quality development amid rising external uncertainties [2][8]. - Experts suggest that strengthening the domestic market is essential for China's modernization strategy, aiming to enhance domestic circulation stability to counter international uncertainties [2][3]. Group 2: Strategies for Enhancing Domestic Demand - A dual approach is proposed: immediate actions to boost consumption through the removal of unreasonable restrictions and long-term policies to optimize supply and demand alignment [3][4]. - The introduction of a systematic "urban and rural residents' income increase plan" signifies a fundamental shift in expanding domestic demand logic, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and income [4][5]. Group 3: Service Consumption as a New Growth Engine - The meeting highlights the importance of releasing service consumption potential, particularly in sectors like elderly care, cultural tourism, and digital entertainment, to enhance consumer choices and experiences [5][6]. - The integration of service consumption with the "Two New" policies aims to elevate the digital and intelligent levels of the service industry, fostering a more resilient domestic demand ecosystem [6][7]. Group 4: Stimulating Private Investment - The meeting calls for effective stimulation of private investment, noting a 4.5% year-on-year increase in private investment in infrastructure for the first ten months of 2025, with a focus on sectors like AI and green energy [7][8]. - High-quality urban renewal is identified as a key pathway to expand effective investment while optimizing the consumption environment [7].

【内容摘要】12月16日，虽然适逢税期，但资金面仍偏宽松；市场情绪有所修复，债市小幅回暖；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限 美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【前11个月全国城镇新增就业1210万人】据人力资源和社会保障部12月16日消息，1-11月，全国城镇新增就业1210万人，城镇调查失业率平均值为5.2%。人 力资源和社会保障部就业促进司有关负责人表示，下一步，将实施稳岗扩容提质行动，全力以赴稳定就业大局；聚焦就业重点群体，精准施策稳定和扩大就 业；强化职业技能培训，更好提升劳动者就业能力；优化就业公共服务，更好促进人岗高效匹配。 【中央财办：扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务】据新华社，中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神指出，扩大内需是明年排在首位的 重点任务，要从供需两侧发力提振消费，统筹提振消费和扩大投资。明年要从供需两端发力稳定房地产市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量，加快消化库 存。需求端要采取更多针对性措施，充分释放居民刚性和改善性需求。展望明年，活跃的要素流动和创新为发展持续注入新动能，人流、物流 ...

从估值方面来看，吃喝板块估值处于历史低位，当前或为板块左侧布局较好时机。数据显示，截至昨日（12月16日）收盘，食品ETF （515710）标的指数细分食品指数市盈率为20.21倍，位于近10年来6.46%分位点的低位，中长期配置性价比凸显。 展望后市，国信证券指出，当前白酒板块基本面仍在左侧寻底，但估值及持仓双低位、对短期压力反映较为充分，供需两端的积极信号均有 望带来催化。当前板块或进入左侧布局阶段，具备价位、区域话语权的优质公司有望获取更大增长空间。 吃喝板块今日（12月17日）震荡盘整，反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品ETF（515710）开盘短暂低位震荡后拉升翻红，截至发稿，场内价格涨 0.34%。 成份股方面，大众品涨幅居前，截至发稿，妙可蓝多大涨超5%，莲花控股涨超4%，安琪酵母、新乳业、东鹏饮料等多股涨超2%。 | | | | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 | | | | | | F9 盎前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 (2) | > | | 食 | | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

（付一夫为苏商银行特约研究员） 在全球经济格局深刻调整与国内发展阶段转换的双重背景下，内需作为大国经济的"稳定器"和"主引 擎"，其战略地位日益凸显。前不久刚刚召开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市 场"置于明年八大重点任务之首，且日前《求是》杂志发表重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。这一系 列举措绝非应对短期波动的权宜之计，而是基于经济发展规律、国内外环境深刻变化以及中国式现代化 长远目标所作出的战略抉择。 本文将从经济学视角，系统剖析为扩大内需的原因及其多重战略意义，并探讨未来系统性、结构性的实 施路径。 一、扩大内需的战略逻辑 扩大内需战略的提出与强化，根植于对大国经济规律的深刻认识、对当前内外部挑战的现实回应，以及 对经济发展阶段转换的主动适应。 其一，扩大内需是遵循大国经济发展的普遍规律。 总管全球经济发展史，大国经济普遍具有的特征都是以内需为主导。无论是美国的消费驱动型经济，还 是德国、日本在体量扩大后因过度依赖外需而暴露的脆弱性，都印证了这一规律。我国作为拥有14亿多 人口、4亿多中等收入群体的超大规模经济体，已具备形成内部良性循环的巨大潜力和客观条件。将发 展的立足点更多放在国内 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a slight increase of 0.34% as of the latest update [1][2] - Major stocks in the sector are performing well, with Miaokelan Duo rising over 5%, Lianhua Holdings increasing over 4%, and several others like Angel Yeast, New Hope Dairy, and Dongpeng Beverage gaining over 2% [1][2] - The central government's focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector significantly, as it is a crucial part of the consumer market [3][4] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it an attractive opportunity for investment [3] - As of December 16, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Food ETF's underlying index is 20.21, which is at the 6.46% percentile of the past decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment scenario [3] - The white liquor sector is also seen as entering a phase of potential recovery, with positive signals from both supply and demand sides expected to catalyze growth [4] Group 3 - The Food ETF (515710) tracks the CSI sub-index for the food and beverage industry, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other segments like beverages and dairy [5] - Key stocks in the ETF include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Yili, and Haitian Flavoring, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated recovery in consumer demand [5]

宏观日报 | 2025-12-17 上游价格持续回落，关注扩内需政策推进 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）欧盟将放弃2035年内燃机禁令。欧盟拟放宽新车排放标准，取消对内燃机的实质性禁令。欧盟委员 会将降低原定2035年起禁止销售汽油和柴油新车的标准，转而允许部分插电式混合动力车和配备燃油增程器的电 动汽车上市。新提案要求到下个十年中期尾气排放量较当前目标减少90%（原目标为100%减排）。这一转变背后， 是因为欧洲的汽车制造商在与特斯拉和比亚迪等中国电动汽车的竞争中举步维艰。 服务行业：1）针对内需发展现状如何？提振消费、扩大投资的空间和动力在哪里？中央财办有关负责同志表示， 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到71%。提 振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓，需要持续加 力扩内需。明年要把握消费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）有色 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-17 真空期权益市场缩量波动 市场分析 非农数据喜忧参半。宏观方面，中央财办有关负责同志详解2025年中央经济工作会议精神指出，扩大内需是明年 排在首位的重点任务，要从供需两侧发力提振消费，统筹提振消费和扩大投资。另外，明年要从供需两端发力稳 定房地产市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量，加快消化库存。需求端要采取更多针对性措施，充分释放居民刚 性和改善性需求。海外方面，美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期 的5万人；失业率意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。此外，10月就业数据被大幅下修。 股指调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，沪指跌1.11%收于3824.81点，创业板指跌2.1%。行业方面，板块指数跌 多涨少，仅商贸零售、美容护理、社会服务行业收红，通信、有色金属、电力设备、传媒行业跌幅居前。当日沪 深两市成交额为1.7万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.62%报48114.26点，纳指涨0.23%报 23111.46点。 期指基差收敛。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货当月合约本周五交割，基差趋于收敛。成交 ...