证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 通胀回归——2026 年国内经济展望 就 2026 年而言，随着"反内卷"政策的强力纠偏，猪周期与库存周期的自然 触底，财政发力的累积效应显现，中国经济将迎来"通胀回归、盈利改善"， 经济发展将从"增速情结"转向"质量优先"，政策重心从规模扩张转向提升 发展的含金量。"反内卷"代表供给侧的理性回归，通过限制恶性竞争修复受 损的资产负债表；"猪油共振"代表价格周期的自然反转，猪周期触底回升与 原油价格中枢的坚挺将共同推动 CPI 与 PPI 剪刀差收敛，进而带动 GDP 平减 指数在 2026 年下半年转正。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《2026 年 CPI 和 PPI 展望— —"猪油"共振的可能性推 演》2025-11-28 | 张静静 | S1090522050003 | zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 罗丹 | S1090524070004 | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | 赵兴举 | 研究助理 | zhaoxingju@cmschina. ...

Group 1: Pork Price Outlook - Pork prices are expected to improve quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, with a significant year-on-year increase anticipated in Q3 2026[1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the breeding sow inventory stands at 40.35 million, with a target of reducing to 39 million, indicating a necessary monthly reduction of 280,000 sows[1] - The year-on-year decline in breeding sow inventory is projected to reach -1.62%, -2.50%, and -3.20% for October, November, and December 2025 respectively[1] Group 2: Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has a total remaining production capacity of 3.4 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding 2.13 million barrels per day, indicating limited short-term production increase capabilities[2] - The WTI oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, with geopolitical risks potentially pushing this higher[2] - U.S. shale oil production is anticipated to face reduction pressures, with capital expenditures and rig counts declining, leading to a production bottleneck by the end of 2025[2] Group 3: CPI and PPI Projections - Under neutral conditions, CPI is projected to be around 0.5% for 2026, with pork prices averaging 19, 20, 21, and 22 CNY/kg across the quarters[3] - In a positive scenario, CPI could rise to approximately 0.7% due to stronger domestic demand and consumption policies[4] - PPI is expected to turn positive around Q3 2026, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 0.2% in Q3 and maintaining around 0.5% in Q4[4]

Domestic Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session confirmed that the main direction of the "14th Five-Year Plan" remains focused on technology, aiming to overcome the middle-income trap and establish a domestic and international dual circulation system[1] - Since October 10, domestic liquidity has further loosened, with the DR007 rate slightly declining, indicating limited room for further easing unless interest rates are cut[1] - The domestic market has likely priced in optimistic expectations from the recent China-US talks[1] Overseas Insights - The US September CPI was reported at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December[2] - The EU and the US have intensified sanctions on Russian oil, but the US is unlikely to fully cut off Russian oil exports due to ongoing inflationary pressures and low strategic reserves[2] - Recent zero balances in overnight reverse repos and a rapid rise in SOFR rates have heightened market expectations for an early end to the Fed's balance sheet reduction[2] Asset Market Analysis - The S&P 500 CAPE ratio has reached 40.58, compared to 44.19 before the 2000 Nasdaq bubble burst, suggesting potential paths for US stocks: a 10-20% short-term adjustment leading to continued bull market or accelerated bubble leading to a bear market next year[3] - In 2026, a rebound in Chinese inflation is anticipated due to the "pig oil resonance," with pork prices having only fallen below 18 CNY/kg three times since 2013[3]