Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the international methanol device operating rate is oscillating at a high level, with some devices in Iran experiencing short - term shutdowns this week. The daily output has dropped from 38,000 tons to around 31,000 tons but remains high. The import volume in June is expected to increase significantly to over 1.3 million tons. Downstream demand is stable, and as the arrival volume increases, port inventories are starting to accumulate. Meanwhile, due to the continued decline in domestic coal prices, coal - to - methanol profits have expanded to a historical high, and the scale of spring maintenance is expected to be less than anticipated, resulting in a continuous and ample domestic supply. Currently, the procurement of CTO in the inland region has ended, and the inventory of inland enterprises has started to rise, alleviating the tight supply situation. Additionally, downstream resistance to high prices has led to a continuous decline in inland auction prices. However, trade frictions have eased, limiting the downward space for commodities. With the intensifying geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and a sharp rebound in crude oil prices last night, it is expected to drive the energy - chemical sector to be temporarily stronger. Methanol is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds rather than chased on the downside [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market oscillated downward, closing at 2241 (-25/-1.1%) [4]. - **Spot Market**: In production areas, prices range from 1980 - 2160 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, prices range from 2200 - 2270 yuan/ton; in the southwest region, prices are 2230 - 2240 yuan/ton; and at ports, prices range from 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - This week (20250516 - 0522), China's methanol production was 1,961,475 tons, a decrease of 29,580 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a 1.62% decrease from the previous week [5]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mine operating rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has rebounded, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest have continued to decline. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 600 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with a continuous and ample domestic supply [6]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined from a high level, the US - dollar price has slightly decreased, the import premium has narrowed, some devices in Iran have had short - term shutdowns, the non - Iranian operating rate is stable, prices in Europe and the US are diverging, the internal - external price difference has been repaired, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 740,000 tons in May, and Iranian tenders have been gradually concluded. Some non - Iranian cargoes have been redirected to China, with an expected import volume of 1.35 - 1.4 million tons in June [6]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has been hovering at a low level, with some MTO devices operating at less - than - full capacity or shutting down [6]. - **Inventory**: With the gradual recovery of imports, stable demand, and import premiums, port inventories have bottomed out, and the basis has been consolidating. Inland enterprise inventories have started to rise [6]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short on rebounds [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9]. - **Options**: Sell call options [9].

Report Overview - Report Name: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The market fundamentals have changed little, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a stronger trend under the influence of the macro - environment [7][8] - For the cotton yarn industry, the spot market trading is okay, but the price is basically stable. The downstream lacks strong orders, and market confidence is insufficient [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, CF09, and CY09 contracts decreased by 5, 10, 10, and 15 respectively; the trading volumes of CF01, CF05, CF09, and CY09 decreased by 8315, 238, 124038, and 66 respectively; the open interest of CF01, CF05, and CF09 increased by 2298, 135, and 4227 respectively, while that of CY09 decreased by 16 [3] - **Spot Price**: CCIndex3128B increased by 17 yuan/ton to 14567 yuan/ton; Cot A increased by 0.65 cents/pound to 78.25 cents/pound; CY IndexC32S decreased by 550 to 20520; FCY IndexC33S decreased by 113 to 21787; Indian S - 6 decreased by 100 to 54200; polyester staple fiber increased by 70 to 7450; pure polyester yarn T32S remained unchanged at 11200; viscose staple fiber remained unchanged at 12800; viscose yarn R30S remained unchanged at 17250 [3] - **Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 20 (down 15), the 5 - 9 spread was 75 (up 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 55 (down 5). In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 0 (unchanged), the 5 - 9 spread was - 19695 (up 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 19695 (down 15). The CY01 - CF01 spread was - 13485 (up 5), CY05 - CF05 was - 13505 (down 10), and CY09 - CF09 was 6265 (down 5). The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 668 (down 96), the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 17 (down 61), and the internal - external yarn spread was - 1267 (down 437) [3] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: From May 15 - 21, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas (93.6%) was 21.5mm, 17.5mm higher than normal and 11.9mm higher than last year. From March 1 - May 21, 2025, the cumulative rainfall was 64mm, 37.8mm higher than normal. As of May 20, ICE's deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts increased to 39796 bales. As of the week of May 18, in Texas, the weighted average of very short + short surface soil moisture was 54% (17 percentage points higher year - on - year), and the underground was 59% (10 percentage points higher year - on - year). The cotton planting progress reached 35%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 5 percentage points higher than normal [6] - **Trading Logic**: The market fundamentals have changed little, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [7] - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - side**: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a stronger trend under the influence of the macro - environment [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The spot market trading of pure cotton yarn is okay, but the price is basically stable. The downstream lacks strong orders, and market confidence is insufficient. Spinning mills' profits are at break - even or slightly profitable. Zhengzhou cotton futures have been strong recently, but spinning mills have not continuously raised cotton yarn prices, and the grey fabric price is also stable. Weaving mills with orders still purchase as needed, and some demand has weakened. Weaving mills are currently on the sidelines [10] 3.3 Options - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton today is 10.6050, with volatility slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 is 9.9%, CF509 - P - 12600 is 12.2%, and CF509 - P - 12200 is 14.3% [12] - Strategy: Wait and see [16] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [20][21][25][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the accelerated planting progress of US corn, the price of US corn is oscillating at the bottom, and with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, the bottom support of US corn is relatively strong. The domestic corn import profit is acceptable, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2052 yuan. The domestic corn spot price in the north is stable, while that in the north - central region is weak. The demand for domestic breeding is still weak, but the supply is low, so the domestic corn spot price is expected to rise in the short term. The market expects a reduction in this year's corn production, a decrease in grain imports, and farmers' reluctance to sell. It is estimated that the short - term support for north - central corn is around 2400 yuan/ton, and around 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long term, policy - related grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively stable. The spot price of corn starch in the northeast is also strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch has slightly increased, with the manufacturer's inventory at 1429000 tons, a monthly increase of 3.03% and a year - on - year increase of 37.4%. In the medium - to - long term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and many starch enterprises will shut down, leading to a profit recovery [9]. - In the short term, domestic corn will remain stable, and with the replenishment demand of downstream enterprises after May, corn is expected to strengthen. Corn futures will continue to oscillate narrowly, and the impact of policies will be significant in the later stage [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: Among corn futures contracts, C2601 closed at 2246, down 3 points or 0.13%; C2505 closed at 2260, down 1 point or 0.04%; C2509 closed at 2351, up 4 points or 0.17%. Among corn starch futures contracts, CS2601 closed at 2652, down 2 points or 0.08%; CS2505 closed at 2650, up 7 points or 0.26%; CS2509 closed at 2740, up 2 points or 0.07% [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2205 yuan, down 5 yuan; the spot price of starch in Longfeng is 2750 yuan, with no change. The basis of corn in Qinggang is - 146, and the basis of starch in Longfeng is 100 [3]. - **Spreads**: For corn inter - delivery spreads, C01 - C05 is - 14, down 2; for starch inter - delivery spreads, CS01 - CS05 is 2, down 9; for cross - variety spreads, CS09 - C09 is 389, down 2 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The planting progress of US corn is accelerating, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs provides strong support for the bottom of US corn. The import profit of foreign corn is acceptable. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable, and the northeast corn spot price has started to stabilize. The supply in the north - central region has decreased, and the corn spot price is weak. The wheat price in the north - central region is stable, and wheat is gradually substituting for corn. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, but the supply is low, so the corn spot price will rise in the short term. It is expected that the short - term support for north - central corn is around 2400 yuan/ton, and around 2150 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. In the medium - to - long term, policy - related grain auctions are expected in June [5][8]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the price of corn in Shandong is relatively stable. The spot price of corn starch in the northeast is also strong. This week, the inventory of corn starch has slightly increased. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream replenishment. In the medium - to - long term, due to the weak demand for starch, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state, and many starch enterprises will shut down, leading to a profit recovery. It is estimated that the short - term support for 07 starch futures is around 2650 [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Domestic 07 corn futures will continue to oscillate narrowly, and short - term long positions can be attempted [11]. - **Arbitrage Trading**: Hold a position of buying spot and shorting 07 corn futures. Expand the spread between 09 corn and starch futures when the spread is low, and conduct oscillating operations [14]. 3.4 Corn Options - **Option Strategy**: Enterprises with spot positions can sell corn call options and hold them [15]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of corn spot prices in various regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 9 - 1 spread, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch 09 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different contracts and varieties [17][20][22].

Group 1 - The article discusses various commodities including crude oil, PTA, PVC, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, styrene, methanol, and urea, highlighting their market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][4][6][8][10][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the volatility attributes of different futures products in the Chinese futures market [13]. - The article provides tools and reports aimed at assisting users in observing trading opportunities from a macro perspective, including cross-commodity arbitrage and options trading [13]. Group 2 - The article outlines a series of research tools designed for different stages of trading, from research to execution and review, indicating their ease of use and the need for real-time data [13]. - It mentions specific reports that help users clarify their trading plans, position sizing, and portfolio management, catering to both single and multi-market traders [13]. - The article also includes a section on daily market trends and anomalies, which aids users in reviewing market movements [13].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年5月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续在20均线上下震荡运行。从产业链来看，矿价坚挺或有松动，本周小幅回落，在 下游倒挂之下，很难有成交，印尼虽然短缺仍存，但菲律宾集中供货来袭，矿价或有承压。镍铁价格则 有一定止跌迹象，总全成本线或有见底的可能性。不锈钢仓单继续慢慢减少，库存有小幅回落，供应压 力仍然较强，不锈钢对镍价有一定利空影响。新能源汽车产销数据较好，电池向（6镍）倾向，有利于 镍的需求提升。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货124525，基差1245，偏多 3、库存：LME库存201786，-312，上交所仓单23014，-128，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主 ...

Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 21, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13490 with a gain of 30, trading volume of 25,867 (up 12918), and open interest of 113,404 (up 3936) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13495 with a gain of 15, trading volume of 441 (up 357), and open interest of 407 (up 331) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13440 with a gain of 45, trading volume of 248,577 (up 134197), and open interest of 574,399 (down 1339) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19685 with no change, trading volume of 12, and open interest of 19 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18550 with no change, trading volume of 0, and open interest of 0 [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19710 with a gain of 55, trading volume of 220 (down 3), and open interest of 1203 (down 8) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14550 yuan/ton, down 16 [3] - CY IndexC32S was 20520 yuan/ton, down 550 [3] - Cot A was 77.60 cents/pound, up 0.85 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was 21787 yuan/ton, down 113 [3] - (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.34 cents/pound, up 0.70 [3] - Indian S - 6 was 54200 rupees/candy, down 100 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was 11200 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 5 (up 15), 5 - 9 spread was 55 (down 30), 9 - 1 spread was - 50 (up 15) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 1135 (unchanged), 5 - 9 spread was - 1160 (down 55), 9 - 1 spread was 25 (up 55) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6195 (down 30), CY05 - CF05 was 5055 (down 15), CY09 - CF09 was 6270 (up 10) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 764 (down 165), sliding - scale duty domestic - foreign cotton spread was 78 (down 106), domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1267 (down 437) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending May 17, 2025, the average temperature in US cotton - growing areas (92.9% of production) was 75.66°F, 2.64°F higher than the same period last year; average rainfall was 0.71 inches, 0.56 inches lower. In Texas, the average temperature was 78.44°F, 3.06°F higher, and average rainfall was 0.01 inches, 1.24 inches lower [6] - As of the week ending May 18, 2025, India's weekly cotton arrivals were 2.9 million tons, a 26% year - on - year decline. The cumulative arrivals in the 2024/25 season were 456.1 million tons, a 7% year - on - year decline. The CAI's cumulative arrivals reached 92% of the 24/25 season's predicted production, 3% faster than the same period last year [6] - As of the week ending May 18, 2025, in Texas cotton - growing areas (78.1% of area), the weighted average of above - ground soil moisture (very short + short) was 54%, 17 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weighted average of underground soil moisture (very short + short) was 59%, 10 percentage points higher. The cotton planting progress was 35%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 5 percentage points higher than the normal level [6] Trading Logic - The market fundamentals have not changed much, but the macro - level is relatively optimistic. Affected by this, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly upward - trending, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be upward - trending under macro - influence [8] - Arbitrage: Hold off [9] - Options: Hold off [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The atmosphere in the cotton grey fabric market has been weakening. Although previous orders are still in production, new orders are insufficient. The loom factory's operating rate is stable at 5 - 60%. Recent shipments are average, and inventory has decreased slightly, with the current inventory hovering around 32 days. Pay attention to price fluctuations in the grey fabric market after the overnight rise in Zhengzhou cotton [10] - Zhengzhou cotton has been slightly upward - trending this week. The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market has been acceptable, but prices have remained stable. Downstream demand is weakening, and confidence is insufficient. Spinning mills' inventories are low, and cash flow is okay, so the short - term willingness to limit production is low. The operating rate is expected to remain stable. If cotton prices do not change much, it is difficult for yarn prices to break through upward [10] Group 4: Options - On May 21, 2025, for the CF509C13400.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 13440, the closing price was 294, up 8.5%, IV was 10.4%, Delta was 0.5318, Gamma was 0.0006, Vega was 26.2513, Theta was - 2.3093, theoretical leverage was 45.7143, and actual leverage was 24.3109 [12] - For the CF509P12600.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 13440, the closing price was 60, up 3.4%, IV was 12.5%, Delta was - 0.1381, Gamma was 0.0003, Vega was 14.6065, Theta was - 1.5477, theoretical leverage was 224.0000, and actual leverage was 30.9344 [12] - For the CF509P12200.CZC option, the underlying contract price was 13440, the closing price was 37, down 31.5%, IV was 14.6%, Delta was - 0.0818, Gamma was 0.0002, Vega was 10.0139, Theta was - 1.2280, theoretical leverage was 363.2432, and actual leverage was 29.7133 [12] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.6122, with volatility slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 was 10.4%, CF509 - P - 12600 was 12.5%, and CF509 - P - 12200 was 14.6% [12][13] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.8761, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6430. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased, indicating a significant bearish sentiment in the market [13] - Options strategy: Hold off [14] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes charts of 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spreads, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05, CY01 - CF01 spreads, CF9 - 1 spreads, and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][21][23][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International soybean market supply is still relatively loose, while domestic soybean supply pressure exists, and soybean and related products are expected to show certain trends. Brazilian sugar is about to enter the peak - crushing season, with short - term sugar prices expected to be weak. The palm oil market in Malaysia may continue to increase production and inventory, and the domestic soybean oil inventory will also start to accumulate. The corn market has stable domestic spot prices and strong futures support. The pig market is expected to be weak. The peanut market has limited short - term rebound space. The egg supply is sufficient, and the apple market is expected to be slightly stronger. The cotton market is expected to be strong due to macro - level influence [3][10][19][28][34][39][50][55][61] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1050.25 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.5% to $297.7 per short ton [2] - **相关资讯**: Anec raised Brazil's May soybean and soybean meal export forecasts. EU's 2024/25 rapeseed and soybean meal imports increased compared to last year. South American soybean crushing and exports are growing. As of May 16, domestic oil mills' soybean actual crushing volume was 1.9055 million tons, with an operating rate of 53.56%. Soybean inventory increased by 9.71% week - on - week and 33.95% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 20.26% week - on - week but decreased by 80.47% year - on - year [2] - **逻辑分析**: International market supply is loose, and domestic soybean supply pressure exists, with soybean meal accumulating inventory [3] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, slightly layout long positions; for arbitrage, conduct M11 - 1 positive spread and expand MRM09 spread; for options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [6] Sugar - **外盘情况**: ICE US sugar fell 0.04 (0.23%) to 17.41 cents per pound [7] - **重要资讯**: In April 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Brazil's sugar exports in the first three weeks of May decreased by 42.92% year - on - year. The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi slightly decreased [8][9] - **逻辑分析**: Brazilian sugar is about to enter the peak - crushing season, with short - term prices expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are stronger than raw sugar, but also expected to be weak [10] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect weak fluctuations and pay attention to extreme weather in Guangxi. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. For options, sell wide straddle options or out - of - the - money ratio spread options [11][12][13] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**: Overnight, CBOT US soybean oil's main price changed by 1.33% to 49.57 cents per pound, and BMD Malaysian palm oil's main price changed by - 0.15% to 3904 ringgit per ton [15] - **相关资讯**: MPOC expects the price of Malaysian palm oil to fluctuate between 3750 and 4050 ringgit in May and then gradually recover. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 20 increased by 5.3% month - on - month. US soybean crushing profit increased by 7% week - on - week. In March 2025, Brazil processed 4.68 million tons of soybeans. China's April palm oil imports decreased by 6.35% month - on - month but increased by 6.44% year - on - year, and rapeseed imports increased by 98.26% month - on - month and 3.92% year - on - year [16][17][18] - **逻辑分析**: Malaysian palm oil is expected to continue to increase production and inventory in May. Domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space is limited [19] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect short - term volatile operation and consider shorting palm oil at the upper limit of the range. For arbitrage, consider partial profit - taking and partial holding of YP09, and go long OI91 at low prices. For options, stay on the sidelines [20][21][22] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**: CBOT corn futures rose 1.5%, with the main contract closing at 454.5 cents per bushel [25] - **重要资讯**: The temperature and precipitation in the US corn - producing areas are abnormal. Argentina will extend the tax exemption for wheat exports. Heavy rainfall is affecting the US corn belt. As of May 15, US corn export inspection volume increased week - on - week. On May 21, the purchase price in the northern port was stable, and the price in the North China production area was also stable [26][27] - **逻辑分析**: US corn is weak, while domestic corn has stable spot prices and strong futures support [28] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, the outer - market July corn has support at around 440 cents per bushel, and you can try to go long on July corn. For arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on the corn - starch spread and expand it at low prices. For options, those with spot goods can consider the strategy of selling call options at high prices [29][31][32] Pig - **相关资讯**: Pig prices are oscillating. As of May 20, the prices of piglets and sows changed slightly. On May 20, the national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.7% [34] - **逻辑分析**: After the previous price decline, the market's motivation to stabilize prices has increased, but the pig market is still expected to be weak [34] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, expect oscillating operation. For arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spread. For options, sell wide straddle options [35] Peanut - **重要资讯**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume and contract prices of peanut oil mills vary. Peanut oil prices are strong, while peanut meal sales are weak. As of May 15, domestic peanut inventory increased, and peanut oil inventory decreased [37][38] - **逻辑分析**: Peanut spot trading is still scarce. The import volume has decreased significantly, and the downstream consumption is weak. The short - term rise of peanuts in October is limited [39] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for October peanuts. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [41][42][43] Egg - **重要资讯**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas decreased. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable. In April, the number of laying hens in production increased. The weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased. The production and circulation inventory decreased. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs increased [45][46][49] - **交易逻辑**: The overall egg supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to close out short positions and stay on the sidelines [50] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, close out short positions and stay on the sidelines. For arbitrage, go long on August eggs and short on September eggs. For options, stay on the sidelines [50][51][52] Apple - **重要资讯**: As of April 16, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas decreased, and the de - stocking was faster than the same period. In 2025, the cumulative export volume of fresh apples increased, and the import volume also increased. The mainstream apple prices in the origin were stable, and the profit of apple storage merchants increased [54][55] - **交易逻辑**: The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and the market supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is launched. The new fruit season's weather has affected the fruit setting in some areas, and the apple price is expected to be slightly stronger [55] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, go long on AP10 at low prices. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [56] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**: ICE US cotton rose 0.44 (0.67%) to 66.12 cents per pound [58] - **重要资讯**: As of May 18, the US cotton planting rate was 40%, slower than the same period last year and the five - year average. In April 2025, China's cotton imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The domestic spot trading of domestic cotton changed little, and the basis was relatively strong [59][60] - **交易逻辑**: Due to the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the cotton market is expected to be strong [61] - **交易策略**: For single - side trading, both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are expected to be slightly stronger. For arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [64][67]

豆粕上涨、油脂震荡 一、农产品板块综述 焦点关注:豆粕主力合约 2509 合约上涨收长阳,突破短期横盘 区间,走势转强: 1. 南美阿根廷大豆产区遭遇暴雨袭击,可能损害大豆作物,美 豆走高,对国内豆类行情有所提振。国内市场 5 月 20 日主流油厂豆 粕成交暴增,创下逾一年新高,油厂积极预售2026年5月-7月基 差合约,大型饲料集团和贸易商积极采购,提振豆粕市场情绪。但是 国内进口大豆集中到港,市场预计 5 月份进口大豆到港 1300 万吨,6 月到港 1200万吨,油厂大豆周度压榨量将快速回升到 200万吨以上, 5月油厂豆粕库存将明显回升,或将限制豆粕的回升幅度。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约大幅上涨,站上短期均线,向上突破短 期横盘区间,技术转强,策略上空单平仓,主力2509 合约支撑 2880, 阻力 2950。 (二) 棕榈油:反弹震荡,涨幅受限 焦点关注:棕榈油主力 2509 合约窄幅震荡,涨幅受限: 1.棕榈油产地进入增产季,产量增长,南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协 会(SPPOMA)发布的数据显示,5月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量 环比增长 3.72%,而出口亦增长,相关调查机构数据显示 5 月 1 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various trading tools and reports available for futures and macro trading, highlighting their purposes and ease of use [10] - It mentions specific tools designed to assist users in observing volatility across different futures varieties and macro arbitrage opportunities [10] - The article outlines tools for cross-variety and cross-period arbitrage, as well as options trading opportunities in the futures market [10] Group 2 - The article provides a framework for trading plans and reviews, helping users clarify their trading targets, entry criteria, expected profits, and position sizing [10] - It includes tools for position sizing based on Average True Range (ATR) for different trading frequencies [10] - Portfolio management tools are mentioned for both single market traders and multi-asset traders, aimed at managing risk and returns effectively [10]