Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the January 29 meeting, pausing any rate cuts[2] - The overall tone of the meeting was hawkish, emphasizing signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and inflation remaining somewhat elevated[6] Economic Indicators - Current inflation rates are above the target, with CPI at 2.7% and PCE at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[4] - Employment growth is in a neutral to weak state, with a labor participation rate dropping to 62.4% and average hours worked declining, suggesting underlying economic pressures[14] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of a rate cut before May is low, primarily due to the Fed's emphasis on independence from political pressures and the upcoming rotation of voting members towards more hawkish stances[5][15] - Future rate cuts will need to overcome "two thresholds": the continuation of Powell's leadership and the selection of a new chairperson, which will influence the pace of monetary easing[21] Market Reactions - The market response to the Fed's decision was in line with expectations, with limited volatility observed in the S&P 500 and a rise in the dollar index, reflecting a stronger pricing for prolonged high rates[7]

点击注册小程序 本次议息会议如期暂缓降息，符合市场预期。从原因看，在2025年累计三次降息后，当前美国利率水平已 经接近中性利率区间，就业市场逐步企稳，金融市场流动性紧张问题也得到缓解，但通胀尚未迎来下行拐 点。因此，鲍威尔选择放慢降息节奏、"边走边看"，以防止较大的通胀反弹风险。 1月议息会议落地，下次降息需等待多久？在基数效应下，如果2026年一季度政府可以顺利完成运转，叠 加政府预算集中支出和税收返还的利好，2026年一季度美国各项经济数据或显著上行，进一步降息必要性 不强。即使2月出现美国政府停摆的情况，考虑到目前已有6个部门获得新财年拨款，即使政府再次停摆， 其对美国消费与经济的影响也将小于2025年政府停摆时。待2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满后，新任美联储主 席预计将维持鸽派立场，重新加快降息节奏，择机在年内降息2-3次，且按照鲍威尔的推测，如果关税通胀 在今年年中迎来拐点，美联储也将更有信心进行降息。 市场反应： 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 ...

Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated that the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, as the job market stabilizes and liquidity issues in financial markets ease, but inflation has not yet shown a downward trend [5] - The Fed is expected to adopt a cautious approach to rate cuts, with a potential acceleration in cuts after the new chair takes office, especially if tariff-related inflation shows signs of peaking mid-year [5] Strategy Insights - In January 2026, major A-share indices experienced widespread gains, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, media, and comprehensive services leading the increase, while the Hong Kong stock market also showed a positive trend influenced by A-share performance and market sentiment [5] Company Insights - Qingdao Bank reported a revenue of 14.6 billion yuan for 2025, marking an 8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 5.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.7% growth, indicating strong asset expansion and a robust risk mitigation capacity [7] - New Oriental's FY26 Q2 results exceeded expectations with net revenue of $1.191 billion, a 14.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $45.45 million, up 42.3%, leading to an upward revision of the full-year revenue guidance [8]

◎记者 陈佳怡 北京时间1月29日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，暂停了此 前连续三次的降息，符合市场预期。 尽管决议获得多数赞成，美联储内部分歧仍存。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒在本次会议 上投出反对票，主张降息25个基点。其中，沃勒被市场视为潜在的下一任美联储主席人选之一，他展现 出支持继续降息的倾向，也让市场对其获提名出任美联储主席的预期有所升温。 结合市场分析来看，美联储此次"按兵不动"，是出于对经济基本面的判断和政治博弈升温的综合考量。 从经济基本面来看，美国经济展现出韧性与通胀压力交织的局面。在最新决议声明中，美联储对经济形 势的评价整体更为乐观，认为经济活动以"稳健"步伐持续扩张，删除了就业下行风险增加的说辞，改称 失业率"显示了一些企稳的迹象"，通胀水平仍然略高。 "综合而言，美国经济增长和劳动力市场尚未显著失衡，通胀水平回落趋势延续但仍高于目标，这为美 联储本次保持利率不变提供了现实基础。在2025年9月至12月已连续三次降息的背景下，本次会议美联 储选择'按兵不动'、维持审慎观察的政策取向是合理的。"工银国际首席经济学家程实对上证报记者 ...

Core Viewpoint - Mitsubishi UFJ has revised its forecast for the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year from four to three, with the first cut expected in April [1] Group 1 - The team at Mitsubishi UFJ, including George Goncalves, Agron Nicaj, and Tarun Chandanala, noted that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not seem eager to cut rates, despite some dissenting opinions [1] - The forecast includes a predicted reduction of 50 basis points in the second quarter and 25 basis points in the third quarter [1]

三菱日联策略师将对美联储今年降息次数的预测从四次下调至三次，并预计第一次降息将在4月进行。 三菱日联George Goncalves、Agron Nicaj和Tarun Chandanala等人组成的团队在报告中写道，除周三反对 维持利率不变的美联储理事沃勒和米兰外，"联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)似乎并不急于降息"，他们预 测第二季度将降息50个基点，第三季度降息25个基点。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Federal Reserve's outlook on the U.S. economy is slightly optimistic, leading to no immediate plans for short-term interest rate cuts, with future cuts depending on economic data performance [1] - The expectation is that, given the current employment situation in the U.S. and the gradual decline in inflation, there is still room for interest rate cuts, with a relatively high chance of cuts occurring mid-year [1] - The global stock market is anticipated to perform well in the medium to long term due to easing global liquidity as most major central banks are in a rate-cutting cycle amid declining global inflation [1] Group 2 - Regarding gold, the article highlights that demand driven by global central bank purchases and risk-hedging factors provides long-term allocation value, with expectations for gold prices to trend upward in the medium to long term, potentially reaching new highs, although volatility is expected to increase significantly [1]

中新社香港1月29日电 (记者 魏华都)2026年美国联邦储备委员会(简称"美联储")首次议息后宣布维持利 率不变，符合市场预期。香港业内人士29日表示，美联储仍有降息空间，利好金融市场和房地产市场。 当天，香港三家发钞行——渣打银行(香港)有限公司、中国银行(香港)有限公司、香港上海汇丰银行有 限公司宣布维持最优惠利率不变。香港金融管理局表示，香港货币及金融市场保持有序运作。 市场普遍认为，美联储今年将继续降息，有助于降低企业融资成本，进一步提高投资信心，以及股市和 楼市发挥"联动"效应。 中国银行(香港)财富策略及分析处主管张诗琪表示，美联储会后声明反映其对于美国经济展望略趋乐 观，故不急于短期降息，后续降息步伐将取决于经济数据表现。而按目前美国就业情况加上通胀逐步回 落，美联储仍有降息空间。 1月29日，香港三家发钞行——渣打银行(香港)有限公司、中国银行(香港)有限公司、香港上海汇丰银行 有限公司宣布维持最优惠利率不变。图为2025年12月拍摄的汇丰总行大厦(右二)、中银大厦(左一)、渣 打银行大厦(右一)。 中新社记者 李志华 摄 中欧基金国际投资总监叶英聪接受中新社记者采访时表示，预计2026年有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cuts that began in September 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current indicators show that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a steady pace, with employment growth at low levels but a stabilizing unemployment rate [1] - Inflation levels remain high, and uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook is still significant [1] - The unemployment rate is stabilizing around 4.4%, expected to remain below 4.5% in the first half of 2026, indicating insufficient employment pressure to support rate cuts [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's statement and Chairman Powell's remarks indicate a more optimistic view of the current economic situation, which is the primary reason for pausing rate cuts [1] - There were two dissenting votes from Fed governors advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting some internal disagreement on the decision [2] - The Fed is expected to enter a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, particularly focusing on economic and inflation data [2] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a slow pace of rate cuts, with inflation becoming a central consideration for monetary policy [3] - The next potential rate cut is anticipated around June 2026, with expectations of one to two rate cuts throughout the year, totaling around 50 basis points [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the first pause in rate cuts since September of the previous year [3][4] - Out of 12 Federal Reserve officials, 10 supported the decision to hold rates steady, while two members voted against it, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3][4] - The Fed's more optimistic view on the economy is reflected in the change of language from "moderate" to "solid" regarding economic expansion, and the removal of concerns about rising unemployment risks [3][4] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the first rate cut may be delayed until the second quarter unless there is a significant deterioration in the labor market [4][5] - The probability of a rate cut in March is now below 20%, while the likelihood for June stands at approximately 60% [4][5] - The Fed's current policy stance is close to the upper end of the neutral range, with future decisions to be based on evolving data and risk assessments [3][4] Group 3 - The stock market showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices experiencing slight fluctuations following the Fed's announcement [6] - Gold prices reached a historic high of over $5,500 per ounce, influenced by various factors including concerns over the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks [6] - The U.S. dollar index saw a minor increase of about 0.24%, closing at 96.4460, but had previously dropped over 3% in the past seven trading days [6] Group 4 - The weak performance of the U.S. dollar is expected to create a relatively favorable external environment for the Chinese yuan, which is anticipated to maintain a strong oscillation [7][8] - The People's Bank of China aims to stabilize the yuan and prevent unilateral market expectations from reinforcing themselves [7] - The yuan's exchange rate against the U.S. dollar closed at 6.9460, a decrease of 7 basis points from the previous trading day [8]