欧洲央行管委内格尔：将通胀率恢复到目标水平是欧洲央行促进经济增长的最佳举措。 ...

【导读】瑞士央行、挪威央行双双宣布：降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 李智 6月19日，瑞士央行将政策利率下调25个基点至零，符合市场预期。此外，挪威央行宣布降 息25个基点至4.25%，市场预期维持不变。 瑞士央行降息25个基点 6月19日，瑞士央行将政策利率下调25个基点至零，符合市场预期。值得一提的是，这是瑞 士央行连续第六次降息。 瑞士央行预计2025年瑞士国内生产总值将增长约1%至1.5%，与此前预测相同；预计2026 年瑞士国内生产总值将增长约1% 至 1.5%，此前预测为约1.5%；预计2026年通胀率为 0.5%，低于之前预期的0.8%；预计2027年通胀率为0.7%，低于此前预期的0.8%。 瑞士央行表示，与上一季度相比，通胀压力有所下降。瑞士央行将继续密切关注局势，并在 必要时调整货币政策，以确保通胀在中期内保持在价格稳定的范围内。 2025年第一季度，全球经济继续以温和的速度增长。由于贸易紧张局势加剧，未来几个季度 的全球经济前景恶化。瑞士央行预计全球经济增长将在未来几个季度减弱。美国的通货膨胀 率在未来几个季度可能会上升。相比之下，欧洲通胀压力有望进一步下降。 瑞士央行认为，全球经济形势 ...

瑞士央行行长：由于高度不确定性，我们相信今年剩余时间的经济增长将受到抑制。 ...

Group 1: US Monetary Policy - Macquarie now expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, followed by another 25 basis point cut in 2026, revising previous predictions of a 50 basis point cut in 2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time in June, with the dot plot indicating two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials expecting no cuts this year has risen to seven [1] - Powell emphasized uncertainty in the current economic situation, suggesting a wait-and-see approach, and anticipates inflation driven by tariffs to rise in the coming months [1] Group 2: Global Economic Measures - Thailand's Finance Minister plans to propose a 110 billion Thai Baht project to boost the economy next week [2] - The Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam indicated a potential adjustment of the credit growth target to 16% to promote economic growth if necessary [2] - Brazil's central bank unexpectedly raised rates by 25 basis points to 15%, while the market had anticipated a hold at 14.75%, with expectations that the tightening cycle will end [2] Group 3: European and Asian Monetary Policies - ECB Governing Council member Panetta stated that the European Central Bank will continue to make decisions based on each meeting's circumstances without committing to a clear monetary policy path in advance [2] - South Korea's Ministry of Finance proposed a supplementary government budget plan totaling 30.5 trillion Korean Won, including 20.2 trillion Won in spending and 10.3 trillion Won in tax revenue revisions [2] - The Swedish central bank revised its policy rate forecast for Q3 2025 to an average of 1.99%, down from 2.25%, and for Q4 2025 to 1.92%, also down from 2.25%, indicating the possibility of another rate cut this year [2] Group 4: Russian Economic Outlook - The first deputy CEO of Sberbank expects Russia's GDP to grow by 1% to 2% in 2025, stating that the Ruble is overvalued with a reasonable exchange rate expected between 90 to 95 Rubles per dollar [3] - There is a significant possibility that the benchmark interest rate in Russia will decrease from the current 20% to 17% by the end of this year [3] - For economic recovery, it is suggested that the key interest rate should remain between 12% and 14% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping approximately 30%, and declines in some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The initial price corrections began in second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen joining the trend in 2023 [1] - Experts predict that by 2030, housing prices could increase to four to five times their current levels, driven by factors such as excessive money supply, favorable government policies, and anticipated economic growth [1] Group 2: Counterarguments to Price Predictions - The likelihood of housing prices quadrupling or quintupling in the next five years is considered extremely low due to the ongoing long-term downward trend in prices [3] - Achieving a fivefold increase in housing prices by 2030 would require annual doubling, which is deemed nearly impossible [3] - Economic growth and money supply do not guarantee rising housing prices, as the market is currently experiencing significant bubbles and investment risks [3] Group 3: Factors Supporting Price Stabilization - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with many facing reduced incomes and cautious future income expectations [4] - There is an oversupply of housing in the market, with approximately 6 billion existing homes, enough to accommodate 30 billion people, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4] - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, which will further alleviate housing supply pressures and help regulate the market [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Considering macroeconomic conditions, purchasing power, and housing supply, the potential for significant price increases in the next five years is very low, with a likelihood of continued adjustments towards rationality [6]

不过美联储仍然认为未来美国经济仍面临较高的不确定性，关税增加可能会对经济活动产生压力，未来 几个月通胀将显著上升。美联储下调了未来对美国经济增长的预期，上调了未来通胀、失业率的预期。 本次会议声明中，在对劳动力市场的判断上，委员会维持了稳定的判断，但删除了"失业率稳定在低水 平"的措辞，在对通胀的判断上，维持了"仍然偏高"的表述。在经济指标预测中，美联储将2025年的失 业率预期上调至4.5%，将核心PCE物价指数的通胀预期上调至3%。在经济指标预测中，对2025年美国 实际GDP增速的预期中值从1.7%再下调至1.4%，并同步将2026年下调至1.6%。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会中表示，关税政策的影响传导至终端消费需要时间，企业调查显示多数 公司计划将关税成本部分或全部转嫁消费者。关税影响的规模、持续时间高度不确定，因此维持现有的 政策立场是合适的，以便根据后续数据灵活调整。 当地时间6月18日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间，这是 美联储货币政策会议连续第四次决定维持利率不变。 本次美联储公布的点阵图显示，2025年降息次数仍为两次，但从分布上看，内部仍有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that while the labor market may be gradually cooling, the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns about this cooling [1] Group 1 - Powell acknowledges the current uncertainty in the economic outlook remains at a high level, despite some improvements [1] - The labor market conditions, along with reasonable economic growth and gradually declining inflation, lead Powell to prefer waiting for more information before making further decisions [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，经济似乎正以1.5%至2%的速度增长。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：经济似乎正以1.5%至2%的速度增长。 ...

尽管英国5月份的通胀水平与4月份基本齐平，但从细项来看仍有值得关注的地方。5月份，英国的食品 价格明显上涨，从4月份的3.4%上涨至5月份的4.4%。与此同时，一些英国家居生活的基本生活品，如 巧克力等，也出现了明显上涨，这推动了英国居民的生活负担。"从4月份开始，英国居民需要支付更高 的能源、水、网络等服务价格，同时，新增的商业成本也持续渗透到经济中。这使得英国5月份的总体 通胀率维持在3.4%，令消费者担忧的是，随着食品通胀的持续上升，英国居民每周购物价格再次上 涨，达到自去年2月以来的最高水平。"英国零售商协会（British Retail Consortium)的研究总监Kris Hamer说。 对于英国现阶段的通胀水平和未来几个月的发展趋势，市场机构目前普遍的看法是，英国通胀还将持续 维持在高位一段时间。"今天的通胀数据几乎没有什么意外，因为随着能源价格上限的上调，以及其他 一些公共服务价格的上涨，加上就业成本的抬高，在这些价格因素上涨的传导下，英国通胀率持续处于 央行目标区间之外。由于这些因素影响，预计未来几个月英国通胀率仍将维持高位。"智库英国董事学 会 (Institute of Direct ...