中辉有色观点 | | 1 11 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | | | - | | P | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 美联储降息概率上升至 80%，俄乌问题再生变数，美国日本推出财政大刺激，黄金 | | 黄金 | 长线持有 | 有支撑。建议黄金长线交易为主，避免陷入情绪交易。黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑， | | ★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金、及其他有色品种波动，特朗普 AI 创世纪计划批准。长期来看白银基 | | | 长线持有 | 本面来看全球政策刺激白银需求，供需缺口持续变，宽松货币投放提供流动性。关 | | ★ | 注 | 11500 附近支撑。长线多单持有 | | | | 美联储鸽派官员密集发声，12 月降息概率走高，特朗普启动创世纪计划提振 AI，市 | | 铜 ★ | 长线持有 | 场情绪好转。消费淡季供需双弱，海外铜库存增加压制铜上方空间，短期铜高位整 | | | | 理，背靠 8 万 5 关口 ...

11月25日消息，三大指数集体高开，贵金属板块涨幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3850.57点，涨0.36%；深成指报 12692.09点，涨0.85%；创指报2970.73点，涨1.42%。 消息面： 1、11月24日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平阐明了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场，强调台湾回归 中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分。中美曾并肩抗击法西斯和军国主义，当前更应该共同维护好二战胜利成果。特朗普表示， 中国当年为二战胜利发挥了重要作用，美方理解台湾问题对于中国的重要性。 2、外交部发言人毛宁昨日主持例行记者会。有记者就第十次中日韩领导人会议的会期提问，毛宁表示，中日韩三方并没 有就第十次中日韩领导人会议的会期达成共识。近期日本领导人在涉台问题上公然发表错误言论，损害了中日韩合作的基础和 氛围，导致当前不具备举行中日韩领导人会议的条件。 3、日本防卫大臣在11月23日视察琉球群岛一处自卫队基地时表示，日本将如期在该基地部署中程防空导弹。报道称该基 地所在地距中国台湾仅110公里。对此，外交部发言人毛宁在昨日主持的例行记者会上表示，这一动向极其危险，需要引起周 边国家及国际社会的高度警惕。 4 ...

智通财经APP获悉，博通(AVGO.US)周一股价大涨11.1%%，成为标普500指数中当日表现最佳的成分 股，原因是投资者重新涌入多家与人工智能(AI)交易相关的热门科技公司。华尔街也注意到这家芯片制 造商，将其视为谷歌(GOOGL.US)在AI领域日益增长的主导地位的衍生投资标的。 作为超大规模计算公司最大的高性能专用集成电路(ASIC)供应商之一，博通今年表现强劲，股价年内涨 幅已达60%。周一的上涨使该股创下自4月9日以来的最佳单日表现。该股同时也是追踪标普500科技股 板块的Technology Select Sector SPDR基金(XLK)中表现最好的成分股。 博通股价的变动正值投资者持续推高谷歌股价之际。随着AI交易收复部分近期失地，谷歌股价上涨超 过5%。谷歌股价在过去一个月上涨了21%，表现优于"美股七巨头"中的其他公司，并在近期交易中推 动大盘走高。投资者对谷歌最新的AI模型Gemini 3、即将推出的名为"Ironwood"的第七代张量处理单元 (TPU)、其在AI图像生成方面与Nano Banana Pro的进展，以及名为"Google Antigravity"的新智能体平台 都做 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has launched a new national initiative called the "Genesis Project" aimed at transforming scientific research through artificial intelligence [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with an 82.9% probability of this occurring [2] - Apple is undergoing a restructuring of its sales department, resulting in potential layoffs for dozens of employees, particularly in sales roles targeting enterprise, education, and government clients [2] Group 2 - Major U.S. stock indices saw collective gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.44%, S&P 500 up 1.55%, and Nasdaq up 2.69%, with significant contributions from large tech stocks [3][5] - Notable increases in chip stocks were observed, with Broadcom rising 11%, Micron up nearly 8%, and AMD increasing over 5% [3][5] - Chinese concept stocks also experienced gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.82% [3] Group 3 - Amazon announced a significant investment of up to $50 billion to expand its cloud computing capabilities for U.S. government clients, focusing on AI and supercomputing [12] - Industrial Fulian clarified that it has not lowered its profit target for Q4 and that production and shipment are proceeding as planned [7] - Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, invested over HKD 100 million to acquire 2.6 million shares, increasing his stake to 23.26% [8]

Core Points - Amazon announced an investment of up to $50 billion to expand artificial intelligence (AI) and supercomputing capabilities for its U.S. government clients through Amazon Web Services (AWS) [1] - The investment plan is set to break ground in 2026, adding nearly 1.3 gigawatts of supercomputing capacity in AWS Top Secret, AWS Secret, and AWS GovCloud regions [1] - Additionally, the company will invest $15 billion to build a new data center in northern Louisiana, designed to have a capacity of 2.4 gigawatts and expected to create 1,100 jobs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Moer Technology, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," has opened for subscription with an IPO price of 114.28 yuan per share, setting a record for the highest IPO price in the A-share market this year [1][2]. Company Overview - Moer Technology focuses on the research, design, and sales of GPUs (graphics processing units) and related products, positioning itself as a "Chinese version of Nvidia" [4][6]. - Since its establishment in 2020, the company has developed a full-function GPU and aims to provide computing acceleration platforms for high-performance computing fields such as AI, digital twins, and scientific computing [6]. Market Context - Nvidia currently dominates the global GPU market, especially in AI computing and data centers, holding approximately 90% market share in cloud AI training GPUs [6]. - The increasing domestic demand for homegrown GPUs is driven by ongoing U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China, leading to heightened expectations for Moer Technology among domestic investors [6]. Financial Performance - As of the IPO announcement, Moer Technology has not yet achieved profitability, with projected revenues of 0.46 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 4.38 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, while incurring net losses of 1.894 billion yuan in 2022, 1.618 billion yuan in 2023, and 1.618 billion yuan in 2024 [7][9]. - The company reported a cumulative unremitted loss of 1.478 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, with expectations to achieve profitability by 2027 based on market potential and product development [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the challenges posed by trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and high global debt, the global economy, particularly the US economy, has shown resilience and strong growth, aided by the AI investment boom [1][3][12] - Olivier Blanchard notes that the actual disruption caused by US tariff policies has been less severe than expected, primarily manifesting as noise and uncertainty rather than immediate economic chaos [3][7] - The long-term damage from the disregard for traditional trade rules by the Trump administration could lead to a reduction in global trade and a slowdown in long-term growth, despite not causing an immediate recession [4][9] Group 2 - Blanchard emphasizes that the current political climate in the US reflects a lack of responsibility, with a prolonged fiscal deadlock and attempts to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising concerns among investors [4][21] - The potential for a shift in the international monetary system is highlighted, with expectations that the dollar's dominance will weaken, leading to more transactions being conducted in euros or yuan [25][23] - Europe is seen as having a historic opportunity to provide alternative assets to US Treasuries, contingent on the establishment of a robust euro-denominated bond market [4][23][27] Group 3 - The concept of "voluntary coalitions" is proposed as a way to address global governance challenges, where countries willing to adhere to rational positions can form agreements on specific issues, such as carbon taxes [5][35] - Blanchard suggests that Europe and China must engage in systematic discussions to explore all possible areas of cooperation, despite existing tensions [6][38] - The need for a well-structured euro bond market is emphasized, as it is crucial for enhancing the euro's attractiveness as an international currency [26][27][30]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its S&P 500 price target to 7800 for 2026, citing strong earnings growth and a belief that a new bull market is underway, particularly in lagging sectors [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The evolving narrative suggests that the market is transitioning from growth-negative to growth-positive policies, with optimism about the economy's resilience despite concerns about the Federal Reserve's pace of action [2][3] - There is a belief that a rolling recession has already occurred, with the economy rebalancing towards the private sector, which is expected to improve as government policies change [4][5] - The Fed is anticipated to cut rates, which is seen as essential for allowing a rotation into interest rate-sensitive sectors of the market [6][7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A correction of 10-15% was predicted due to tightening liquidity, but evidence suggests that this correction is well advanced [9] - The performance of momentum stocks, including cryptocurrencies, indicates market concerns about liquidity, which will influence the Fed's timing for rate cuts [10][12] - The market is expected to dictate the Fed's actions, with potential financial stress prompting a more dovish policy path [12][31] Group 3: Investment and Spending - There is an expectation of increased capital expenditures (CapEx) driven by government incentives, which will require support from the Fed's balance sheet [17][18] - The investment in technology, particularly AI, is viewed as crucial for driving productivity and supporting stock performance in the future [21] - The market is experiencing a bifurcation in performance among major players, which is seen as a healthy sign of competition and investment discipline [28][29] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - The Fed's independence is questioned, with the view that it is influenced by market conditions and government funding requirements [32][33] - The Fed is expected to respond to market demands for liquidity and rate cuts, reflecting the financialization of the economy [31][32]

Core Insights - The focus of the Chinese internet sector will continue to be on two main areas: the strategic layout and capital investment of leading internet platforms in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), and the ongoing competitive landscape in the domestic instant retail sector [1] Group 1: Instant Retail Competition - The competition intensity in the instant retail sector is expected to ease in the fourth quarter, which may alleviate the loss pressure on related companies due to the expansion of instant retail businesses in the fourth quarter and next year [1] Group 2: Online Entertainment - The online entertainment sector, particularly online gaming and music services, is expected to remain resilient, as these are affordable entertainment options for consumers and are likely to maintain stable performance amid a weak macro environment [1] - In contrast, the long video business may continue to underperform compared to other entertainment segments due to ongoing user migration towards short videos and micro-dramas [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with Dow futures rising by 0.15%, S&P 500 futures by 0.33%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.61% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX up 0.49%, France's CAC40 up 0.02%, the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.26%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.18% [2] Oil Market - WTI crude oil is up 0.17%, priced at $57.91 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.23%, priced at $61.80 per barrel [3] Economic Data and Events - This week, investors will focus on several important economic data releases, including US retail sales and PPI data for September, and the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for November [5] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book and initial jobless claims data will also be released, with a relatively light earnings week ahead, featuring Alibaba, Dell Technologies, Kohl's, and Best Buy as key companies to watch [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Analysts from Capital Economics suggest that the Federal Reserve may face a historic 6-6 tie in its December voting, indicating increasing divisions within the committee regarding interest rate decisions [6] - Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson believes that the recent sell-off in US stocks may soon end, maintaining an optimistic outlook for the market in 2024, with a projected rebound of the S&P 500 to 7800 points, representing an 18% increase from current levels [6] Stock Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 index has declined approximately 3.7% in November, with a potential further drop due to $150 billion in liquidity being withdrawn from the market due to US Treasury settlements [7] - Nvidia's recent earnings report has not alleviated market concerns regarding a potential AI stock bubble, with debates ongoing about the sustainability of valuations in the AI sector [8] Shipping and Tanker Market - VLCC shipping rates have surged to a five-year high, driven by increased demand for alternative oil supplies amid sanctions on Russian oil and rising production from the Middle East and the US [9][10] Company-Specific News - Lexinfintech (LX.US) reported Q3 earnings showing resilience in its ecosystem business, with revenues of 3.42 billion yuan and a net profit of 675 million yuan, reflecting a 1.5% increase quarter-over-quarter [11] - BHP Group (BHP.US) has announced it will no longer pursue a merger with Anglo American, marking a significant shift in its strategic direction [12] - Amazon (AMZN.US) operates over 900 data centers across more than 50 countries, indicating a larger scale of operations than typically recognized [12]