Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged with a 10 to 2 vote, with dissenting votes from Waller and Miran advocating for a 25 basis point cut, raising concerns about the implications for the Fed's independence and Waller's reputation as a technocrat [1][2]. Group 1: Decision and Market Reaction - The decision to keep rates steady was influenced by political dynamics, particularly Waller's dissenting vote seen as a move to align with Trump's preference for lower rates [1]. - Following the vote, the probability of Waller becoming the next Fed Chair increased from 8% to 15% on betting site Kalshi, indicating market sensitivity to political influences on monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Economic Justification - Waller's call for a rate cut lacks strong economic justification, as current economic indicators, including GDP growth and a stable labor market, do not necessitate immediate rate reductions [2]. - The current policy stance is considered neutral, with the estimated neutral policy rate range between 2.6% and 3.9%, while the current rate is set at 3.5% to 3.75%, indicating no urgent need for a cut [2]. Group 3: Implications for Fed's Independence - Waller's actions contradict his previous warnings about the importance of dissent being rooted in economic rationale, suggesting a shift towards political motivations [3]. - The perception of Waller as a potential "serial dissenter" raises questions about the integrity of the Fed's decision-making process and its independence from political pressures [3]. Group 4: Waller's Qualifications - Despite criticisms of his recent actions, Waller is still regarded as a strong candidate for the Fed Chair position, noted for his effective communication skills and sound economic judgment since joining the Fed in 2020 [5]. - Waller's previous recognition of inflation risks and advocacy for high rates to combat inflation demonstrate his capability, although his recent dissent may tarnish his reputation [5].

（文章来源：第一财经） 中金公司研报表示，美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒投下反对票，或与其 希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。货币政策声明称"失业率已趋于稳定"，鲍威尔表示货币政策"处 于合适位置"，显示短期内再次降息的门槛提高。除此之外，鲍威尔并未提供太多指引，他也回避了其 它与利率制定不相干的问题。我们认为美联储在2026年仍有望降息两次，但首次降息或推迟至第二季 度。美国经济的核心问题并非增长不足，而在于收入分配不平衡和普通家庭的可负担压力。这类结构性 问题并非单靠货币就能解决，反而可能推动政府采取更多非市场化的干预性政策，来回应选民的关切。 ...

中金研究 美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒投下反对票，或与其希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。货币政策声明称"失业率已趋 于稳定"，鲍威尔表示货币政策"处于合适位置"，显示短期内再次降息的门槛提高。除此之外，鲍威尔并未提供太多指引，他也回避了其它与利率制定 不相干的问题。我们认为美联储在2026年仍有望降息两次，但首次降息或推迟至第二季度。美国经济的核心问题并非增长不足，而在于收入分配不平 衡和普通家庭的可负担压力。这类结构性问题并非单靠货币就能解决，反而可能推动政府采取更多非市场化的干预性政策，来回应选民的关切。 美联储按兵不动，理事沃勒主张降息。 美联储FOMC会议维持利率不变，货币政策声明称"就业增长低迷，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀仍处于 较高水平"[1]。过去一年中，劳动力市场已明显降温，但失业率在12月从前一个月的4.5%回落至4.4%，一定程度上缓解了联储对就业进一步恶化的担忧。 与此同时，通胀虽有放缓迹象，但仍明显高于美联储2%的目标。在这一背景下，决策者选择暂时按兵不动。 不过，本次决议并非一致通过。两名官员——美联储理事米兰和沃勒——投下反对票，主张降息25个基 ...

ET = 鲍威尔在发布会上坚定捍卫美联储独立性 北京时间1月29日,美联储公开市场委员会以10-2票,决定在此前三次 会议连续降息后,将联邦基金利率目标区间维持3.5-3.75%不变。 我们并没有试图阐明下次降息的时间或是否在下次会议上降 息的标准。我们想说的是,我们目前处于有利地位,可以逐 次会议地做出决策。 ▶ 坚定捍卫美联储独立性 这(美联储理事库克解职听证会)或许是美联储113年历史上 最重要的法律案件。 (美联储) 独立性的目的不是为了保护 政策制定者或其他什么人,而是因为世界上所有发达经济体 和民主国家都已普遍采用这种做法。 (如果失去这种独立性)就很难恢复美联储的信誉。 美联储在会后声明中暗示,在经历此前三次会议连续降息后,并不急 于恢复降息。"现有指标显示，经济活动正稳步扩张。就业增长依然缓 慢,失业率也出现了一些企稳迹象。通胀率仍然略高。" 声明称:"在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行额外调整的程度和时 间时,委员会将仔细评估新出现的数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平 衡。"。 2025年9月来三次会议连续降息 Jan Feb Mar May Sept llet ADI Jun III AU0 N ...

华泰证券指出，美联储公布1月议息会议决定，政策利率维持在3.5-3.75%。1月会议佐证了我们对美国 经济和就业市场更加乐观的判断，往前看，我们维持此前观点，即美联储1-5月暂缓降息，待新任主席 年中上任后再降息1-2次。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have reached historic highs in 2026, becoming one of the most watched assets in global financial markets [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed concerns regarding the Fed's credibility and the impact of asset price fluctuations on monetary policy [1] - The Fed decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with economists' expectations, with market predictions for the next rate cut not expected until June [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the Fed's neutral stance may pose short-term resistance to gold prices but will not reverse the overall upward trend [2] - Market focus is shifting towards potential leadership changes at the Fed after Powell's tenure, with expectations that a successor may be more inclined to support rate cuts [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold futures and spot prices have surged past significant thresholds of $5200 and $5300 per ounce, reaching historical highs due to heightened geopolitical tensions, pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, a larger-than-expected drop in the U.S. consumer confidence index, and the potential for another government shutdown in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The rise in gold prices reflects a strong increase in investor risk aversion driven by multiple uncertainties in the market [1] - Analysts from the Bank of Montreal suggest that the robust performance of gold and other safe-haven assets indicates a shift in the global market landscape [1] - The combination of geopolitical tensions and economic indicators has significantly influenced investor sentiment towards gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Kay Hahi indicates that due to strong economic data and signs of stability in the labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its policy unchanged for the time being. However, a rate cut is expected to be reinitiated later this year as the slowdown in inflation allows the Fed to implement two more "normalization" rate cuts, bringing rates back to what the Federal Open Market Committee members consider neutral levels [1] Economic Data - Strong economic data is influencing the Federal Reserve's current policy stance [1] - Signs of stability in the labor market are contributing to the Fed's decision-making process [1] Future Expectations - A rate cut is anticipated to be reintroduced later this year [1] - The slowdown in inflation is a key factor enabling the Fed to consider further rate cuts [1] - The expectation is for two additional "normalization" rate cuts [1] - The goal is to return interest rates to neutral levels as defined by the Federal Open Market Committee members [1]

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos最新撰文：美联储如期维持利率不变，且并未明确交代何时可能恢复降 息。在12月的预测中，19名官员中有12名预计今年至少再降息一次是合适的。答案取决于以下哪种情形 先出现：是就业市场的崩溃，还是通胀确信地重新向2%的目标回落。自12月以来，这两者均未发生。 就业增长已大幅放缓，但失业率保持稳定。受政府停摆导致的统计中断影响，通胀数据变得扑朔迷离。 如果劳动力市场没有进一步走弱，下一次降息可能要等到鲍威尔今年5月美联储主席任期结束之后。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a target of 7700 points for the S&P 500 index, citing a strong macroeconomic backdrop that is expected to boost the U.S. stock market [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The assessment is partly based on the expectation that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates in the future, despite a pause in the current easing cycle anticipated in today's meeting [1] - Evidence of a weakening U.S. labor market and controlled inflation may provide the Federal Reserve with the opportunity to implement further rate cuts in the coming months [1]