Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal to oscillate and rebound. It is currently in an interval oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement rumors of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate with a slight upward trend. For the RM2601 contract, it oscillates around 2400 in the short term, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - The rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and in a technical oscillation adjustment. The market returns to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain an interval oscillation in the short term, affected by soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced the short - term export and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - **Bearish factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. - **Import and production situation**: There is no ship schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories continue to decline. - **Aquaculture situation**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [16][18][19]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The rapeseed meal rebounds with the soybean meal and returns to an interval oscillation pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The future China - Canada trade relationship is uncertain, affecting the market. - The KDJ indicator rebounds from a low level. It is in a short - term technical rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limits the rebound height. - The MACD rebounds from a low level, and the green energy turns red. The subsequent upward trend depends on the soybean meal and rapeseed import policies. Overall, the rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds in the short term and maintains an interval oscillation in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends [42]. 3.6 Next Week's Focus - **Most important**: The harvesting weather in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. - **Second important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations rumors also influence the market [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2400 - 2460 range. Its fundamentals are neutral, with the market affected by soybean meal and waiting for the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping result. The basis is positive as the spot price is higher than the futures price. Inventory is decreasing both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is positive. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving down, considered neutral. The main long positions are decreasing with capital outflow, and the short - term outlook is a return to the oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established with a 75.8% import deposit. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and the geopolitical conflict in Russia and Ukraine may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 23rd to October 31st, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 to 3048, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 15.08 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2470 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices and spot prices had different trends, with futures prices showing a bottom - up trend and spot prices relatively stable. Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4702 on October 22nd to 2955 on October 31st [13][15][17]. 5. Position Data - Not specifically elaborated in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The view is that rapeseed meal will oscillate in the 2400 - 2460 range. The strategy is to pay attention to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and China - Canada trade relations [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend lacks clear guidance and remains volatile [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main risks are the decline in domestic aquaculture demand after the long holiday and the potential increase in imported rapeseed arrivals [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal futures rebound after hitting the bottom, while the spot price is relatively stable, with a slight fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains at a low level. The price of aquatic fish rises slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [18][20][23] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce the expected supply in China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has a relatively offsetting impact on rapeseed production, and global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodities [11] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12] - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports [12] 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From October 22nd to 30th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 to 3026, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2440 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, except for 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 496 and 523 [13] - **Price Data**: From October 21st to 30th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2321 to 2401, and the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2300 to 2338. The spot price of rapeseed meal (Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2530 [15] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From October 21st to 30th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 7702 to 3915, with several decreases during the period [17] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, but the funds flowed out [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply - side pressure is small as the import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted in the fourth quarter, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal futures continued to fluctuate and close higher, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode in the fourth quarter, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. Affected by the decline of palm oil, the rapeseed oil price has been in a weak adjustment recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9529 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2401 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 640.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 3.4 Canadian dollars), and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5270 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 319 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 66 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 226014 lots (down 7051 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 350537 lots (down 1311 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 4403 lots (up 921 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 101718 lots (up 11227 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 7540 pieces (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 3915 pieces (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2480 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9917.5 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7891.02 yuan/ton (up 28.82 yuan). The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 275 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and that of the main rapeseed meal contract is 79 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8390 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1460 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 490 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), and the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons (up 1068 thousand tons) [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 11.53 million tons (down 13.13 million tons), the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 million tons (up 2 million tons), and the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 million tons (down 5.57 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and开机率: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 589 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 2.93% (down 0.27%) [2]. - Inventories: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 2 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventories: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 4.2 million tons (down 1 million tons), the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.71 million tons (down 0.07 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 49.4 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 26.75 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 2.7 million tons (down 0.2 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 21.3 million tons (down 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.35 million tons (down 1.28 million tons), and the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 0.22 million tons (down 0.75 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month production of feed is 3128.7 million tons (up 201.5 million tons), and the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan (up 12.9 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.81% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.67% (down 0.97%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.56% (up 2.26%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.55% (up 2.26%) [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.44% (up 2.21%), the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.56% (up 0.55%), the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.21% (down 0.37%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.69% (down 0.03%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On October 29 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures rose, and trading volume jumped, supported by the hope that the oversupply of North American vegetable oil supply would start to improve. The January rapeseed contract closed up 2.50 Canadian dollars at 641.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - A survey showed that as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 84%. As the US soybean harvest advanced, the supply - side pressure continued to constrain its market price. After the China - US presidential meeting on October 30, the specific trade agreement was still unclear, and the market's concern about the US soybean demand prospects resurfaced, and the US soybean futures price also significantly declined from its high [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed开机率 and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from My Agricultural Network on Monday, the development of China - Canada and China - US trade relations, and the initial ruling of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main positions show a bullish signal, and the short - term market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply tightening and demand weakening, which suppresses the market. Canada's rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and import deposit on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 20th to 28th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, while spot prices were relatively stable, with a small - amplitude fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and capital flowed in [9].

Group 1 - Domestic futures market for meal products saw a collective rise, with rapeseed meal futures prices experiencing a rapid increase, peaking at 2399 yuan/ton, and closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 2.39% [1] - Import prices for rapeseed at domestic ports showed a slight decrease, with Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price at 509 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a mild increase, with the benchmark contract rising by 0.24%, influenced by expectations of a potential trade agreement between China and the U.S. and positive developments in China-Canada trade relations [2] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicated that with limited raw material arrivals in the future, inventories will remain seasonally low, and the market will primarily follow soybean meal trends, with a focus on subsequent warehouse receipt changes [2] - Dayue Futures noted that rapeseed meal is experiencing a rebound due to technical adjustments and the influence of soybean meal, while the market awaits the final ruling on anti-dumping measures for Canadian rapeseed imports [3] - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, influenced by the ongoing negotiations between China and Canada, with a lack of clear direction affecting price stability [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. - The market is mainly focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical oscillations. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the price. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with reduced production in Ukraine and increased production in Russia offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is 145, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish [9]. - **Price Trends**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Trading Data**: From October 17th to 27th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2959 - 3003, and the trading volume between 6.51 - 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2480, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 494 - 523 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The main players have shifted from short to long positions, and capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have been decreasing. For example, on October 27th, there were 4050 receipts, a decrease of 210 from the previous day [16].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9757 | -77 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2339 | 32 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 389 260299 | 3 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) -2728 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 27 364445 | 19 -13022 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 7132 | -1570 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -103418 | 3684 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 7540 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 4702 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 626.7 | -2.5 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5341 | -93 | | 现货市场 | 现 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2300 - 2360 range oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is 133, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is 1.75 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing in, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, global geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 14th to 22nd, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 - 2992, and the trading volume was between 6.51 - 18.62 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2500, and the trading volume was 0. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2440 - 2500. The rapeseed meal futures prices of the 2601 and 2605 contracts fluctuated. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9089 on October 13th to 4702 on October 22nd. Rapeseed meal futures declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory was flat. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][16]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the overall trend of rapeseed meal remains bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue to maintain a de - stocking mode, and its price is supported, but the market is also intertwined with long and short factors. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9834 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2307 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 629.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.8 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5434 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan [2] - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 386 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 8 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 8702 lots, down 1206 lots; those of rapeseed meal are - 107102 lots, down 12852 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4702, down 3000 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2390 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10113.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7495.07 yuan/ton, up 12.69 yuan [2] - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 186 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 920 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2] - Imports and profits: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 766 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 tons, down 2 tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 3.2%, down 0.53%. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas is 5.2 tons, down 0.8 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0.78 tons, down 0.37 tons [2] - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, up 1 ton; that of rapeseed meal is 18.31 tons, down 8.72 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; that of edible vegetable oil is 450.6 tons, up 30 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures slightly rose on October 21, with the most actively traded January contract up 0.10 Canadian dollars to 630.10 Canadian dollars per ton. The US Midwest soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts its price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted. However, the high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline of aquaculture demand and the abundant supply of soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil restricts its demand [2]