Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI (Producer Price Index) will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets. The market may perceive cyclical goods as superior to technology during the PPI recovery phase, but the report argues that foreign capital is fundamentally buying assets with improved fundamentals, focusing on ROE (Return on Equity) recovery [3][10][4] - Historical analysis shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI growth, indicating that a recovering Chinese economy leads to foreign capital inflows. During previous appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks saw price increases, suggesting that the RMB is likely to appreciate in 2026, prompting foreign capital to reassess Chinese assets [3][10][4] - The report forecasts that during past PPI recovery phases, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, with a clear positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability. It is expected that ROE for both markets will continue to improve in 2026 as PPI rises [4][10] - From the perspective of foreign capital's historical investment preferences, profitability is a crucial consideration. The report notes that changes in ROE are highly correlated with foreign ownership in various sectors, indicating that sectors with strong competitive advantages are likely to attract more foreign investment [10] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets in 2025, with a notable increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs. The A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting heightened foreign interest in core assets listed in Hong Kong [10] - The report identifies several sectors in Hong Kong that are expected to see ROE improvements in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI industry core assets), and cyclical sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from demand recovery and pricing power [10] - The report also notes that domestic capital has room to increase its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public funds allocated to Hong Kong equities, indicating potential for further investment [10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the knife industry, highlighting that rising costs and demand are driving price increases, with major manufacturers announcing price hikes due to surging tungsten prices. This trend is expected to lead to sustained performance improvements for knife companies [12][15][16] - The report indicates that the knife industry has experienced multiple rounds of price adjustments in response to raw material cost pressures, with the latest round occurring in November. The demand from the electric vehicle supply chain is providing strong support for the knife market [15][16] - The report notes that the profitability of knife manufacturers has improved significantly in Q3 2025, with companies reporting substantial year-on-year revenue and profit growth, driven by earlier price increases and low-cost inventory [15][16] - The report suggests that the current market dynamics may lead to a consolidation of the industry, as smaller manufacturers face challenges due to rising raw material costs, potentially benefiting larger firms with stronger financial positions [15][16]

Group 1 - The emergency call between President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Suga lasted about 25 minutes, occurring shortly after a call with Chinese leaders, indicating a strategic diplomatic maneuver [3][8] - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged past 7.09, reaching a new high in over a year, reflecting market optimism regarding US-China relations [3][8] - The Chinese yuan's strong performance is attributed to better-than-expected export figures and a recovering domestic economy, contrasting with the pressures faced during previous trade tensions [8][16] Group 2 - Trump's communication with Suga included a summary of the US-China call, which is unusual in diplomatic practice, suggesting an effort to stabilize US-Japan relations [10][11] - The recent political dynamics in the US, including Trump's declining approval ratings and upcoming midterm elections, are influencing the administration's foreign policy towards seeking stability [16] - The interaction between the US, China, and Japan reflects not only political ties but also economic connections, as seen in the performance of Chinese companies like Alibaba and their investment strategies [17]

责任编辑：郭栩彤 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

新华财经上海11月27日电（葛佳明）11月27日，人民币对美元中间价再度上调至7.0779，为2024年10月 14日以来新高，今年以来人民币对美元汇率中间价年内累计上调约1000个基点。在岸人民币、离岸人民 币对美元汇率均升至7.08附近。近一段时间以来，美元指数震荡上行至100关口上方，人民币汇率不降 反升，表现强劲，与美元指数走势呈现"双强"格局。 10月以来，伴随美联储降息预期回撤，资本流动方向逆转，非美货币均录得较大跌幅，其中欧元抹去半 年全部涨幅，以日元、韩元和印度卢比为代表的亚洲货币跌幅较大。而人民币受影响较小，走出了独立 的升值行情。 对于人民币强劲的表现，中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，近期中国人民银行稳汇率政策保持一定力 度，叠加年末、季末临近，结汇需求或阶段性释放，支撑人民币汇率走强。 中信期货表示，一方面中国人民银行通过中间价持续释放维稳信号。同时，我国三季度出口维持韧性， 权益市场表现良好，推动人民币升值。 "我们认为，2025年不仅是过去三年人民币走弱周期的结束，或预示人民币将开启新一轮升值周期。"东 吴证券首席经济学家芦哲表示，以2025年11月5日时点来计，人民币对美元终结了20 ...

11月27日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0779，上调17点，升值至2024年10月14日以来最高。 美联储12月降息25个基点的概率维持在84.9% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为84.9%，维持利率不变的概率为15.1%。美联 储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为66.4%，维持利率不变的概率为11.1%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为22.6%。 中信明明：预计人民币汇率整体或呈现温和升值的态势 对于人民币对美元汇率的走升，首席经济学家明明表示，近期中国人民稳汇率政策保持一定力度，叠加 年末、季末临近，结汇需求或阶段性释放，支撑人民币汇率走强。展望人民币对美元汇率后期走势，明 明认为，短期来看，央行稳汇率政策有助于稳定人民币汇率预期。长期来看，2026年，美元指数或将延 续偏弱运行的趋势，人民币汇率面对的外部环境相对友好，叠加国内经济基本面的支撑、央行稳汇率张 弛有度，以及积压的客盘结汇需求，预计人民币汇率整体或呈现温和升值的态势。（证券日报） 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性 ...

同日，在岸人民币、离岸人民币对美元汇率开盘走高，双双创下2024年10月以来升值新高。截至当日9 时35分，在岸人民币对美元报7.0841，日内升值幅度为0.01%；离岸人民币对美元报7.0820，日内升值 幅度为0.01%。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）11月26日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场 人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0796元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0826元，调升30基点，再创逾一 年以来升值高点。 ...

Exchange Rate Outlook - The report predicts that the RMB may enter a medium to long-term appreciation cycle, with expectations for the USD/CNY exchange rate to break below 7.0 in 2026, potentially reaching 6.70-6.80 by the end of that year[1] - The RMB has ended a three-year depreciation cycle, with a significant appreciation expected to begin from April 2025, when the USD/CNY was at 7.42[6] Trade and Current Account - The current account surplus is expected to stabilize, driven by a recovery in merchandise trade, with a monthly surplus reaching $63.9 billion in September 2025, the highest since 2020[18] - The merchandise trade surplus has been expanding, with a single-month surplus of $72.4 billion recorded in September 2025[18] Investment Dynamics - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets is increasing, with a net inflow of $10.57 billion in securities investments by September 2025, reversing previous outflows[34] - Foreign investors have increased their holdings in A-shares by 622.9 billion CNY, indicating a strong interest in the Chinese equity market[42] Risk Factors - Potential risks include uncertainties in U.S. fiscal and tariff policies, unclear paths for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and political risks in non-U.S. regions that could lead to currency depreciation[1] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the evolving dynamics of the U.S.-China interest rate differential, which significantly influences foreign investment behavior in Chinese bonds[51]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus reached during the China-US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultations is expected to stabilize trade relations, improve China's external circulation, and reduce market risk premiums [1][3]. Macro - The reduction and continued suspension of tariffs will help improve China-US trade and support Chinese exports. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% equivalent tariff for one year, leading to a decrease in the overall effective tariff rate from 27% to 17% by 2025 [4][5]. - The expected increase in Chinese exports to the US could be around 10% due to the lowered tariff rate [4]. Export Controls - The US will suspend the implementation of the "50% penetration rule" for export controls for one year, which will benefit trade in key areas between China and the US. China will also relax certain export controls for rare earths and lithium battery materials for one year [6]. International Trade Costs - The suspension of port fees and related measures by both countries is expected to lower international trade costs and enhance shipping demand, particularly for agricultural products [7][19]. Agriculture - The consensus to expand agricultural trade is expected to accelerate trade in agricultural products, with projections indicating a slight decrease in China's soybean import share from the US in 2025 [7][20]. Technology - The outcomes of the consultations are favorable for the Chinese technology sector, particularly in terms of tariff reductions on electronic products and the suspension of certain export control measures, although restrictions on advanced technology access remain [25]. Commodities - The cancellation and delay of tariff barriers are expected to boost short-term demand for various commodities, including copper and aluminum, while also supporting the prices of precious metals like gold and silver [27][28]. Internet - The reduction in tariffs is expected to benefit cross-border e-commerce platforms, allowing them to maintain competitive pricing in the US market [31]. Textiles and Apparel - The easing of trade tensions may help stabilize the utilization rate of textile and apparel production capacity in China, benefiting companies that have not fully relocated their production [33]. Home Appliances - The reduction in tariff pressure is expected to provide direct benefits to the home appliance sector, improving the profitability of companies heavily reliant on exports to the US [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar signals a stable expectation in the currency market, with the RMB middle rate reaching its highest level since October 15, 2024, at 7.0881 on October 27, 2025 [1] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB middle rate has shown a continuous upward trend, supported by a favorable external environment and strong domestic economic performance [1][2] - As of October 27, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1083 against the US dollar, reflecting an increase of over 100 points, and stabilized around 7.11 [1] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 97.6, marking a 0.5% weekly increase, the highest level since April 2025 [2] Group 2: External Factors Influencing RMB - The US dollar index has decreased by 8.82% year-to-date, despite a recent slight rebound, primarily due to the weakness of non-US currencies like the Japanese yen [2][3] - Analysts expect the US dollar to maintain a weak trend in the long term due to anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over the US fiscal outlook [2][3] Group 3: Domestic Economic Support - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to provide a supportive role for the RMB exchange rate, with a high sensitivity to growth-promoting policies [3] - The People's Bank of China has sufficient policy tools to stabilize the exchange rate, indicating a flexible adjustment approach to mitigate unilateral market expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both internal and external factors, with the RMB middle rate reaching a new high since October 2024, indicating a potential long-term appreciation cycle [1][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - On October 21, the RMB to USD middle rate was reported at 7.0930, an increase of 43 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB middle rate has risen above the 7.10 mark for five consecutive trading days since October 15, marking a significant upward trend [1]. - The RMB middle rate has shown an overall increase of over 900 points throughout the year [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by a decline in the US dollar and increased external market volatility, which has led to a stronger adjustment of the RMB middle rate [3]. - The US government shutdown has heightened financial market uncertainty, accelerating capital flows from the US to non-US countries [3]. - Internal factors such as the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and improved market competition have provided fundamental support for the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a self-directed monetary policy that balances internal and external factors, maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the current RMB appreciation is primarily driven by the US Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, which may continue to influence the RMB's strength in the near term [4]. - Despite optimism regarding the RMB's long-term trajectory, experts believe that exchange rate stability will remain the main theme, with dual-direction fluctuations becoming the norm [5].