Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with multiple indicators suggesting a strong sell recommendation across various time frames. Group 1: Market Sentiment - The summary indicates a strong sell recommendation with a total of 4 buy signals and 8 sell signals across different time frames [2]. - The moving average indicators (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) consistently show sell signals, reinforcing the bearish outlook [4][5]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The RSI(14) is at 37.808, indicating a bearish trend, while the Stochastic indicator shows an overbought condition at 98.842 [5]. - The MACD(12,26) shows a buy signal at 0.200, but other indicators like CCI(14) at -182.5631 and Williams %R at -1.845 suggest a strong sell [6]. - The overall technical indicators reflect a strong sell sentiment, with 1 buy, 6 sell, and 4 neutral signals [6]. Group 3: Support and Resistance Levels - Key support and resistance levels are identified, with classic pivot points at S3: 25193.6, S2: 25299.8, and R1: 25524.6 [6]. - Fibonacci levels also provide similar support and resistance insights, with S2 at 25363.0 and R1 at 25528.5 [6].

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Spot gold is trading below the pivot point, with the first support level at 3355.87 [1] - Spot silver's key support level is at 38.92 [1] - WTI crude oil is approaching the first resistance level at 65.98, which is a critical point to watch [1] Group 2: Currency Market Insights - The US Dollar Index maintains a bullish trend, with the first resistance level at 97.53 [1] - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate has a key support level at 1.1713 [1] - The British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate's support level is at 1.3528 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kuaishou (01024) has shown strong performance recently, with the stock price reaching 79.35 HKD, up 1.93%, and a high of 79.95 HKD, indicating robust short-term upward momentum despite some technical indicators suggesting potential short-term pullback risks [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The stock price has broken through key moving averages, MA10 at 69.26 HKD and MA30 at 63.5 HKD, with a MACD golden cross indicating expanding momentum [1]. - The RSI indicator is at 77, entering the overbought territory, while the Williams indicator shows a sell signal, suggesting a potential divergence in technical signals [1][2]. - Immediate support is at 69.2 HKD, with a potential drop to 64 HKD if this level is breached; resistance is at 83.3 HKD, with a challenge to 89.7 HKD if broken [2]. Derivative Instruments - On July 21, when Kuaishou rose by 9.03%, related call options saw significant gains, with Morgan Stanley's call option 25717 increasing by 71% and UBS's call option 25723 rising by 68% [4]. - The current market offers diverse trading options for investors, with HSBC's call option 15133 being a preferred choice due to its 5.3x leverage and a strike price of 90.29 HKD, suitable for medium-term investors [7]. - For short-term traders, HSBC's bull certificate 59410 offers a 5.2x leverage with a recovery price of 66 HKD, while UBS's bull certificate 59046 provides a slightly higher leverage of 5.5x with a recovery price of 67 HKD, both maintaining low premium levels [7][11]. Market Sentiment - The strong performance of Kuaishou is attributed to the recovery in the short video industry and technical breakthroughs above key moving averages [4]. - There is market speculation regarding whether Kuaishou can maintain its technical breakout amid increasing competition in the short video sector, with potential scenarios of testing support at 69.2 HKD or directly challenging resistance at 83.3 HKD [11].

Simon:前期高位在30.23元，目前技術信號總結為"買入"15個買入和4個賣出。能否挑戰高位呢？數據系統分析的阻力位在30.1元和32.2元，有機會升穿之前 高位。 1、恆指：看多投資者認為繼續大成交，資金未有減退，已突破阻力，下一個目標26600，過夜牛證。看空投資者則同時部署Put和熊證 Simon:全日收在最高位25538.7點，從周線圖看，恆指升穿周線圖的保力加通道頂部。如果反手部署，投資者都會問選擇認沽證好還是熊證？兩者之間最大 的區別就是牛熊證有收回風險，如果市場繼續升，而買入貼價熊證，會出現即刻被收回的風險。如果看淡走勢，考慮買下跌工具搏一搏的話，選擇認沽證， 不會有收回風險。如果升勢情況下，熊證則有機會被收回，認沽證則還等待一段時間。回到指數分析，目前買賣信號總結為"買入"，整體偏向樂觀向好。阻 力位25795點和26580點。 2、中信証券 (06030.HK)： 這周能破前高嗎？窩輪市場上有投資者尾盤入Call Simon:走勢引人矚目。升穿保力加通道頂部，盤中最高見552元。近期有一定的升幅，窩輪牛熊證選擇獲利離場是合理的。信號總結為"強力買入"，上方阻 力位在572元和586元。 ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is strong with a "Strong Buy" recommendation based on various indicators [3][6]. - The moving averages indicate a consistent "Buy" signal across different periods, with MA5 at 14075.8, MA10 at 14062.1, and MA20 at 14034.3 [5][6]. - Technical indicators show a predominance of "Buy" signals, with 12 indicators suggesting a buy and none indicating a sell [3][6]. Group 2 - The RSI(14) is at 77.092, indicating an overbought condition, while the MACD(12,26) shows a value of 41.500, suggesting a buy [8]. - The ADX(14) is at 57.626, which also supports a buy signal, indicating a strong trend [8]. - The pivot points indicate key levels, with the main pivot point at 14073.8, suggesting potential support and resistance levels for future price movements [9].

回顧近期產品表現，7 月 16 日提及的幾款產品真係「爆晒冷」！法興認購證（27190）兩日後升幅高達 41%，中銀認購證（29376）都有 36%，最犀利的係 滙豐牛證（57042），勁升 59%，遠超同期正股 10.08% 的漲幅！呢啲數據充分證明，喺強勢行情入面，窩輪同牛證可以靠槓桿將收益放大幾倍，揀對產品 真係可以賺到笑。 理想汽車(02015)今日（21 日），截至11點左右，股價微跌1.12%，最新報123.1元，成交額高達12.43 億元，顯示市場對這隻新能源車龍頭股的關注度絲毫未減。雖然 股價出現輕微調整，但技術走勢依然強勁，RSI(75)處於強力買入區域，MACD指標保持買入信號，保力加通道持續擴張，反映上升動能依然充沛。特別值得注意的 是，股價在5日線(113.72元)獲得良好支撐，短線調整可能提供絕佳的吸納機會。 短期支持位在114.6元(即市支持)及106.7元(7月低位)，若失守則需留意105元(6月低位)的支撐力度。上方阻力位分別為129.2元(保力加通道上軌)及139.7元(年 內高位)，若能突破129.2元阻力，後市有望挑戰140元心理關口。目前股價處於114.6-139.7元 ...

小概率：于3347（P点）之下看跌（穆迪枢轴线） 点击输入图片描述（最多30字） 其他技术点评： 目前QE箭头向上，代表多头强劲，预示行情向上的概率大，故而可以采取低多的策略，可以在15分钟 寻找做多信号，第一支撑位置：3345。上方压力3364 注：以上为日内策略于实时更新，也可能因市场波动，导致关键位置的改变，令策略失效，上述内容仅 供参考学习，不构成任何投资建议，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 白银（日内） 大概率：于38.19（P点）之上看涨（穆迪枢轴线） 黄金（日内） 大概率：于3347（P点）之上看涨（穆迪枢轴线） 大概率：于1.1628（P点）之下看跌（穆迪枢轴线） 小概率：于1.1628（P点）之上看涨（穆迪枢轴线） 小概率：于38.19（P点）之下看跌（穆迪枢轴线） 点击输入图片描述（最多30字） 其他技术点评： 目前QE箭头向下，代表空头强劲，预示行情向下的概率大，故而可以采取高空的策略，可以在15分钟 寻找做空信号，第一压力位置：38.37。下方支撑37.79 注：以上为日内策略于实时更新，也可能因市场波动，导致关键位置的改变，令策略失效，上述内容仅 供参考学习，不构成任何投资建议，投资有风险 ...

回看上週五（18日）專欄點評：美團-W (03690.HK)：昨日探底，是否開始反彈走勢，開始一波升浪？也有看空投資者認為沒到均線，下周初還得調整。窩輪市場上， 有人留意行使價133元的認購證Simon:技術信號總結為"買入"。如果認同會升，參考阻力位在134.3元，剛好升穿保力加通道頂部。121.6元，第二個支持位在119.1元。 美團(03690)今日(7月21日)早盤延續升勢，截至9:50股價報132.5元，上漲4.48%，從技術面觀察，股價已成功突破MA10(122.3元)和MA30(129.84元)，但仍受 制於MA60(132.74元)的壓力，呈現區間震盪格局。RSI指標52處於中性區域，配合8.9%的5日振幅，顯示市場交投活躍但未出現過熱跡象，為投資者提供良 好操作空間。 | 信號總結 | 賣出信號 中立信號 | 買入信號 | | --- | --- | --- | | 100 000 000 員人 | O | | 關鍵位分析方面，下方121.4元構成即時支撐，若失守則可能下探118.8元；上方134元為短期重要阻力，突破後將挑戰137.8元關口。技術指標呈現分歧信 號，雖然MACD和保力加通道 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Insights - Spot gold maintains a bullish trend with the first resistance level at 3358.24 [1] - Spot silver shows no significant resistance above [1] - WTI crude oil continues its bullish trend, with a resistance level to watch at 67.66 [1] Group 2: Currency Market Insights - The US Dollar Index is operating below the pivot point, with a focus on the effectiveness of the support at 98.07 [1] - The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate targets the first resistance at 1.1659 [1] - The British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate has a primary resistance level to watch at 1.3476 [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cai Yuehui [2] - Futures Practice Qualification Number: F0251444 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0013101 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report's Core View - The iron ore futures price remains strong due to the rigid demand for molten iron. Macro factors have a significant impact on the sentiment of the black series. Although the port inventory of iron ore has increased slightly, the high - level operation of molten iron production supports the spot demand for iron ore. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high for the I2509 contract, and consider going long on dips, while paying attention to the operation rhythm and risk control. For the option market, it is advised to hold short - term long call options [7][51]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights 1.1 Market Review - As of July 18, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 785 (+21) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 816 (+22) yuan/dry ton [5]. - From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 7.8 tons week - on - week to 2987.1 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 93.8 tons week - on - week to 2558.8 million tons [5]. - From July 7 - 13, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports increased by 347.7 tons week - on - week to 2883.2 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports increased by 178.2 tons week - on - week to 2662.1 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports decreased by 264.1 tons week - on - week to 1147.9 million tons [5]. - The daily average molten iron production was 242.44 million tons, an increase of 2.63 million tons from the previous week and 2.79 million tons from the same period last year [5]. - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.51 million tons, an increase of 34.62 million tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1324.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8822.16 million tons, a decrease of 157.48 million tons week - on - week [5]. - The profitability rate of steel mills was 60.17%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week and 28.14 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. 1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, Trump proposed potential tariffs on Russia and announced tariffs on products from Mexico and the EU. Domestically, the fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% in the first half of the year, with real estate development investment decreasing by 11.2%. The State Council emphasized strengthening the domestic market cycle and promoting consumption [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The arrival volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic port inventory changed from decreasing to increasing, but the year - on - year decline widened. With the rebound of steel prices, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production of steel mills stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for molten iron remained supportive [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The I2509 contract of iron ore remained strong, with the daily K - line moving average combination in a long - position arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA continued to rise, and the red column expanded [7]. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro and industrial aspects, the I2509 contract should be carefully chased when the price is high, and long positions can be considered on dips, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The I2509 contract was strong this week, and its performance was stronger than that of the I2601 contract. On the 18th, the price difference was 32 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 yuan/ton [13]. - **Warehouse receipts and positions**: On July 18, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the DCE was 3000, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 3545, a decrease of 27469 from the previous week [19]. - **Spot price**: On July 18, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 816 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price. On the 18th, the basis was 31 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation - **Arrival volume**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 7.8 tons week - on - week, while the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 93.8 tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports increased by 347.7 tons week - on - week [28]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 34.62 million tons week - on - week, with the inventory of Australian ore increasing and that of Brazilian ore and trade ore decreasing. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills decreased by 157.48 million tons week - on - week [31]. - **Inventory available days**: As of July 17, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory at domestic large and medium - sized steel mills were 20 days, the same as the previous week [34]. - **Import volume and capacity utilization**: In June 2025, China's iron ore imports increased year - on - year. As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines decreased by 2.56% week - on - week [39]. - **Production**: In June 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production decreased by 8.4% year - on - year. In May, the iron concentrate production of 433 domestic iron mines increased by 4.6% month - on - month [42]. 4. Downstream Situation - **Crude steel production**: In June 2025, China's crude steel production was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel production was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [45]. - **Steel import and export**: In June 2025, China's steel exports decreased by 8.5% month - on - month, and imports decreased by 2.3% month - on - month [45]. - **Blast furnace operating rate and molten iron production**: On July 18, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31 percentage points, and the molten iron production was 242.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 million tons [48]. 5. Option Market - Due to the anti - involution policy helping the black series to operate strongly and the center of the ore price moving up, it is recommended to hold short - term long call options [51].