交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利多：供应复产，电石，乙烯成本支撑；出口利好。 目 录 利空：总体供应压力反弹；库存持续高位，消耗缓慢；内外需疲弱。 1 每日观点 主要逻辑：供应总体压力强势，国内需求复苏不畅。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周 样本企业产能利用率为77.23%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量33.874万吨， 环比增加0.97%,乙烯法企业产量13.681万吨，环比减少2.94%；本周供给压力有所减 少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.52%，环比减少0.86个百 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘下探之后反弹，高位震荡运行。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿 价格部分小幅回落，海运费下降，矿库存高位，随着雨季来临矿供应有所减少，矿山挺价。镍铁价格 反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍价影响。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能 源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货131700，基差5990，偏多 3、库存：LME库存255186，-510，上交所仓单38510，+983，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线强势，空头观望，回到前期箱体再试空。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rebar, considering factors such as weak demand, low - rising inventory, and the downward cycle of the real estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, due to factors like inventory increase, export obstacles, and the plan of domestic capacity reduction, it should also be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The real estate industry is still in a downward cycle, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3300, and the basis is 170, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 2.9419 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the rebar main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Production remains at a low level, and the spot premium promotes domestic consumption [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak, lower than the same period [4]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, which is neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3280, and the basis is - 7, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.967 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the hot - rolled coil main contract is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [7]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Demand is acceptable, and the spot premium promotes domestic consumption [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Downstream demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of the zinc market shows a mix of positive and negative factors, with the short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2602 expected to be a volatile decline. The market has supply shortages, positive factors in basis, inventory reduction, and favorable technical indicators, but the main positions are net short with a reduction in short positions [2][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1193,500 tons, consumption was 1,229,200 tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc plate production was 10,363,200 tons, consumption was 10,736,900 tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1,163,300 tons, and from January to September, it was 9,964,700 tons [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price was 23,540, with a basis of +285, indicating a positive situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On December 29, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 325 tons to 106,550 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,091 tons to 40,984 tons [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average pointing upward. The short - term view is that the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ rose, running at the strength demarcation point; the trend indicator declined, with the bullish power rising, the bearish power falling, and the advantage of the bullish power expanding [2][18]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main positions were net short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a negative situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on December 29 - The trading volume of zinc futures on December 29 was 385,770 lots, with a trading value of 4,484,419,620 yuan. The open interest was 197,429 lots, a decrease of 2,988 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on December 29 - The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 23,490 - 23,590 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 260 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 23,290 - 23,390 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 230 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 23,340 - 23,440 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 235 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 23,500 - 23,600 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 225 yuan/ton [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (December 18 - December 29, 2025) - The total inventory on December 29 was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons compared to December 22 and a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to December 25 [5]. 3.9 Zinc Warrant Report on December 29 - The total zinc warrants on December 29 were 40,984 tons, a decrease of 1,091 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on December 29 - The total LME zinc inventory was 106,650 tons, a decrease of 325 tons compared to the previous day [8]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on December 29 - The price of 50% grade zinc concentrate in most regions increased by 310 yuan/ton, with prices in different regions ranging from 19,770 - 20,370 yuan/ton [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on December 29 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from various manufacturers increased by 240 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 23,150 - 24,150 yuan/ton [12]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in November 2025 - The actual production in November 2025 was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%, a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, and a decrease of 4.93% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 69.45%, and the planned production in December was 477,500 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on December 29 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton in most regions, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 40 - 60 dollars/kiloton [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on December 29 - The total trading volume of members was 393,551 lots, an increase of 159,115 lots. The total long positions were 63,133 lots, a decrease of 53 lots, and the total short positions were 67,593 lots, a decrease of 2,164 lots [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals are bearish. Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and demand is below the historical average due to the off - season. The cost support may weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 will fluctuate between 2967 - 3023 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the downward trend of overall demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production was 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 3.955 percentage points. The shipment volume of national sample enterprises was 271810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.17%. The output of sample enterprises was 553000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.55%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 951000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and the pressure may continue next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 7.1022%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 20%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 384.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 655.87 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25.47%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On December 26, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 741000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.78%; the in - plant inventory was 597000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 470000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.07%. All types of inventory are accumulating [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is difficult to boost, and overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 will fluctuate between 2967 - 3023 [8]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025 [18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025 [26][27]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [33]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [35]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The report shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [39]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025 [52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025 [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025 [60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [63][64]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025 [70]. - **Import and Export Analysis** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [73]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread**: The report shows the historical price spread of Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025 [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [82]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [89][91]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report shows the historical construction rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream construction (including shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [94][97][99]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt in 2024 and 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and various inventory data [104].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本 周样本企业产能利用率为77.23%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量33.874万 吨，环比增加0.97%,乙烯法企业产量13.681万吨，环比减少2.94%；本周供给压力有 所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.52%，环比减少0.86个百分点，高于历史平均水 平；下游型材开工率为30.57%，环比减少0.85个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管 材开工率为36.2%，环比减少1.4个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为 66.79%，环比减少0.34个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开工率为80.75%， 环比减少0.60个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口价格价 ...

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2025年12月22日-12月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周02合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为2930元/吨,周五收盘价为2995元/吨，周涨幅为2.22%。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石 油沥青样本产能利用率为33.1376%，环比增加3.955个百分点，全国样本企业出货27.181万吨，环比增加 11.17%,样本企业产量为55.3万吨，环比增加13.55%,样本企业装置检修量预估为95.1万吨，环比减少 0.41%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为31.3%,环比 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1135元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1200元/吨，基差为-65元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存143.85万吨，较前一周减少4.06%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-29） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分煤矿受安全事故影响及年度产能任务完成等因素影响，产量锐减。终端需求疲软，焦 炭仍存看降预期，原料交易情绪普遍不高，中间环节多退市观望，下游焦企考虑利润低位也多刚需采购 为主，焦煤线上竞拍成交率下跌，流拍比继续攀升。目前投机采购较少，下游按日耗采购，焦煤则继续 保持弱稳运行；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1140，基差24.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游焦钢企业在微 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价大幅上涨，印尼配额问题引发原料供应担扰。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。 产业链上，镍矿价格部分小幅回落，海运费下降，矿库存高位，随着雨季来临矿供应有所减少，矿山 挺价。镍铁价格反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍价影响。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩 格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货129700，基差2950，偏多 3、库存：LME库存255696，休市，上交所仓单37527，-300，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线强势，空头观望，回到前期箱体再试空。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85 ...