1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年11月17日-11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为9025元/吨,周五收盘价为8960元/吨，周跌幅为0.72% 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。本周样本企业产量为45390万吨,环比 减少0.11%;其中云南样本企业开工率为30.29%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为12.06%,环比减 少5.92%,新疆样本企业开工率为84.8%,环比持平,西北样本企业开工率为78%,环比持平。预计本 月开工率为58%,较上月开工率68.12%减少10.12个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为8万吨，环比减少4.76%,需求持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the price center moving further down. Although there were production cuts in some enterprises on the supply side, the high inventory pressure was not substantially relieved, continuously suppressing market sentiment. On the demand side, the light soda ash market improved slightly, but the demand for heavy soda ash remained weak. The continuous weakness of the downstream float glass market also dragged down the soda ash price. The cost - end support and the loose supply - demand pattern formed a game. Overall, the soda ash market was operating weakly, but the further downward space might be limited due to cost support [9][39] Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 720,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,500 tons, a decline of 2.50%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 324,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,700 tons; the production of heavy soda ash was 396,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons [10] - The weekly comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, the previous value was 84.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.12%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 89.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 69.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons and above was 89.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [12] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6444 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the previous Monday, a decline of 0.44%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons. Compared with a week ago, it decreased by 62,900 tons, a decline of 3.68%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,800 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.6481 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons, a decline of 0.23% [15] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On November 20, it was reported that the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 783,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 108.73%, a month - on - month increase of 7.79 percentage points. During the week, the production cuts of soda ash enterprises increased, the supply showed a downward trend, and supported by the pending orders, the enterprises shipped well, the inventory of individual enterprises decreased, and the overall shipment rate increased [17] (4) Profit Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese soda ash by the combined - soda process was - 153.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 28.50 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw - material mine salt fluctuated downward, the price of steam coal increased slightly, the cost - end prices rose and fell, and the comprehensive cost decreased slightly; while the price of light soda ash increased, so the double - ton profit of the combined - soda process eased slightly but remained at a low level [20] - As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was - 38.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of sea salt on the cost side increased slightly, the price of anthracite remained stable, and the cost side increased slightly; the soda ash price was stable and firm without obvious adjustment, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process showed a downward trend [24] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Production Increased Month - on - Month - As of November 20, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 158,100 tons, a decrease of 0.66% compared with the 13th. The weekly (November 14 - 20, 2025) production of national float glass was 1.1102 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34% and a year - on - year increase of 0.08% [29] (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreased - As of November 20, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 56,000 weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 30.72%. The converted inventory days were 27.7 days, an increase of 0.2 days compared with the previous period [33] 3. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market was in a weak supply - demand pattern last week, with the price center moving further down. The high inventory pressure on the supply side was not relieved, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak. The cost - end support and the loose supply - demand pattern formed a game. The market was operating weakly, but the further downward space might be limited [9][39] 4. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Short - term shock is weak, but excessive short - chasing is not advisable - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Choose the right time to use the covered - call strategy to increase returns [40]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1135元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1170元/吨，基差为-35元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存164.44万吨，较前一周减少3.68%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来 ...

Report Overview - The report is an early-morning report on Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel dated November 21, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Shanghai Nickel**: The overall view is bearish in the medium to long term, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak operation. The 2601 contract is expected to move weakly in a low - level range [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The overall view is neutral, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak pressure. The 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The external market is moving sideways at a low level. Nickel ore prices are firm, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply. Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and stainless steel inventories are rising, showing an oversupply. Although short - term production may decline, the medium - to - long - term supply is strong, and inventories are continuously increasing. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 117,600, and the basis is 1,770, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 255,846 (-1,986), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 34,631 (-793), which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract will move weakly in a low - level range [2]. Stainless Steel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, shipping costs are stable, nickel iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless steel inventories have increased significantly. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel is 13,287.5, and the basis is 952.5, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 68,310 (-485), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Conclusion**: The Stainless Steel 2601 contract will be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Price Overview - **Nickel**: On November 20, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 115,380 (-450), the LME nickel was at 14,455 (-185). Spot prices of various nickel products increased by 600 compared to the previous day [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel was at 12,285 (-50) on November 20, and the spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in various regions remained unchanged [11]. Inventory Situation - **Nickel**: As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with the futures inventory at 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively. On November 20, LME inventory was 254,172 (-1,674), and Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 34,079 (-552) [13][14]. - **Stainless Steel**: On November 14, the inventory in Wuxi was 584,800 tons, in Foshan was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,400 tons. On November 20, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 65,340 (-2,970) [18][19]. Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - **Nickel Ore**: On November 20, the price of Ni1.5% red clay nickel ore CIF was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of Ni0.9% red clay nickel ore CIF was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [22]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet tons was 894.5 yuan per nickel point (-2.5), and the price of low - nickel (below 2) wet tons was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,536, the scrap steel production cost is 12,870, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,158 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 115,908 yuan per ton [26].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.51%，环比减少0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量34.355万吨，环比减少0.52%,乙烯法企业产 量13.491万吨，环比减少8.08%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.54%，环比减少0.06个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.96%，环比减少0.64个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.6%，环比增加.2个百分 点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年11月20日 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费维稳，镍铁价格回落，成本线继续向下，不 锈钢库存大幅回升。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13287.5，基差952.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：68310，-485，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、结论：不锈钢2601：低位震荡偏弱承压。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘低位震荡运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，前期受台风影响部分港口出货受到影响， 近期慢慢恢复，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨，预期供应宽松。镍铁价格继续回落，成本线重心再 降。不锈钢库存回升，供应表现过剩。原生镍有新的产能投产，同时有一部分 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-11-20） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿主产地环保与安全检查同步，少数区域供应量增加，焦煤供应增量不明显。焦钢企业 阶段性补库结束，采购量趋于谨慎，伴随投机情绪退场，成交氛围较前期稍有转冷，线上竞拍流拍比上 升，部分高价煤矿签单困难，报价承压回调。不过短期内焦煤仍有一定支撑，钢厂维持高铁水生产状态， 原料需求仍有支撑；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1380，基差240.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦化企业以及钢厂经前期补库之后采购意愿有所回落，叠加部分煤价处于高位水平，下游观 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view is that the steel price of rebar 2601 will continue to search for the bottom in a volatile manner, with a short - term, medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday outlook of weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, with supply contraction having limited positive effects and demand being weak, while the relatively favorable factor is the low valuation. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term outlook is oscillation, the medium - term outlook is oscillation, and the intraday outlook is weakly oscillating. It is advised to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price is searching for the bottom in a volatile manner. [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has declined to a low level, but the inventory is high, so the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken, with high - frequency indicators remaining at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industries are performing poorly. Demand will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. With supply contraction having limited positive effects and demand being weak, the fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price remains under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to search for the bottom in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by SteelHome today. [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 主要逻辑：供应端来看，供给压力仍处高位；需求端来看，复苏乏力。 主要风险点：原油价格的走势变化;；沥青焦化物利润差走势。 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131 2万吨 ， . ， | 环比增 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅18 2% 同比降幅6 . , . | 5% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30 8006% 。 . ， | 环比减少 | | | | 1 08个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货21 3 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol futures are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of being weak, a medium - term view of being volatile, and an intraday view of being strong. The overall reference view is a strong operation. After the previous sharp decline, the methanol futures have gradually digested the negative impact of the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The future downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited, and the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - For methanol 2601, the short - term is weak, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation. The night - session decline of the 2601 contract on Tuesday slowed down, and the price slightly rose [1][5]. Driving Logic - After the previous sharp decline, the methanol futures have digested the negative impact of the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The loss of coal - to - methanol plants is increasing, and the supply - side contraction expectation is strengthening. There is an expectation of gas restrictions for southwest natural - gas - to - methanol plants due to the approaching winter heating season. However, domestic port inventories are still high, imports remain at a high level, and demand continues to be weak. With the loosening of supply - side expectations, the downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited [5].