伦敦金周五（6月27日）日K收跌，美市尾盘，伦敦金收报3273.39美元/盎司，下跌54.30美元或1.63%， 日内最高上探3328.16美元/盎司，最低触及3255.59美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至6月27日，黄金ETF持有量为954.82吨，较上一交易日 增持1.43吨。 【要闻回顾】 美国商务部发布的个人消费支出报告显示，5月消费者收入和支出意外萎缩。尽管关税尚未影响物价涨 势，但通胀仍徘徊在美联储2%的目标之上。 密西根大学的一份报告证实，本月消费者信心有所改善，但仍远低于 12 月大选后跳升至的水平。 根据芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 的 FedWatch 工具，金融市场预计美联储在 9 月进行今年首次降息的可能 性为 76%，最早在 7 月降息的可能性较小，为19%。 特朗普表示，他设定的7月9日贸易谈判截止日期并不是固定的。他称，这一日期可能提前，也可能延 后。如果未能达成协议，美国将重新实施更广泛的关税。美国财长贝森特表示，特朗普政府与18个主要 贸易伙伴的各项贸易协议可能会在9月1日劳工节假期前完成。 黄金ETF最新持仓数据： | 日期 | 净持仓量（盎司 ...

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait-and-see" approach to interest rate policy during congressional hearings, which has drawn criticism from President Trump, who expressed a desire for Powell to resign and indicated he would only appoint those willing to lower rates [1][3] - Powell noted that the impact of tariffs on the economy remains uncertain, with potential inflationary pressures expected to manifest in the coming months, particularly in June, July, and August [3][4] - Recent data showed a rise in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, indicating inflationary trends, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7% in May, surpassing expectations [3][4] Interest Rate Outlook - Analysts suggest that weak consumer spending combined with moderate inflation may not be sufficient for the Fed to initiate rate cuts in July, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut in September [4][5] - Current market probabilities indicate an 81.4% chance that the Fed will maintain rates in July, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is at 18.6% [4] - Fed officials have indicated that if inflation remains controlled, they may support a rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting [4][6] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence has improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising from 52.2 in May to 60.7 in June, marking the largest monthly increase in 2024 [5] - Despite the rise in confidence, consumer spending saw a significant decline in May, reflecting uncertainty regarding the Trump administration's economic policies, with inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures dropping by 0.3% [5][6] - The decline in spending was broad-based, indicating a weaker domestic demand and economic resilience than initially estimated [6] Potential Leadership Changes at the Fed - President Trump is reportedly considering announcing his next nominee for Fed Chair as early as September, which would break historical norms and could influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [6][7] - Potential candidates for the position include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, among others [7] - Analysts warn that such a non-traditional approach could raise concerns about the independence of the Fed and create uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues to show strong performance, with major indices reaching new historical closing highs despite geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations with Canada [1][2]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 432.43 points, or 1.00%, closing at 43819.27 points; the S&P 500 increased by 32.05 points, or 0.52%, to 6173.07 points; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 105.55 points, or 0.52%, ending at 20273.46 points [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have both confirmed entry into a bull market, with the Nasdaq up over 20% since its low on April 8 [1]. Sector Performance - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector led gains, while the energy sector lagged [2]. - Nike's stock surged by 15.2%, significantly contributing to the index's performance, following better-than-expected revenue guidance [2]. Technology Stocks - Major technology stocks performed well, with Google and Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia and Meta increasing by more than 1% [3]. - Nvidia reached new highs, while Apple and Intel saw slight increases, and Microsoft and Tesla experienced minor pullbacks [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year, with the core PCE index increasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3]. - Consumer confidence improved significantly, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising to 60.7, the highest level in four months, reflecting better economic outlooks and reduced concerns about personal finances [3]. Market Expectations - Financial markets are adjusting expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with a 76% probability of a rate cut in September and only a 19% chance for a cut in July [3]. Commodity Market - Gold prices fell by 1.6% to $3287.6 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.16% to $66.80 per barrel [4].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time closing highs, confirming a technical bull market with a cumulative increase of over 20% since the low on April 8 [1][2] - For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.44%, the Nasdaq increased by 4.25%, and the Dow Jones gained 3.82%, indicating strong market rebound momentum and improved risk appetite [2] Sector Performance - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector led gains, while the energy sector lagged [3] - Nike's stock surged by 15.2%, significantly contributing to the index's performance after the company provided better-than-expected first-quarter revenue guidance and announced supply chain optimization plans [3] - Technology stocks performed strongly, with Google and Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia and Meta increasing by more than 1%, with Nvidia hitting a new high [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year in May, with the core PCE index increasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Consumer confidence significantly improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising to 60.7 in June, the highest level in four months, reflecting better economic outlook and reduced concerns about personal finances [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path have adjusted, with a 76% probability of a rate cut in September and a reduced likelihood of a cut in July at 19% [4] Commodity Market - In the commodities market, gold prices fell by 1.6% to $3287.6 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.16% to $66.80 per barrel [4]

（原标题：今夜，暴涨！创新高！） 【导读】贸易利好，美股新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，美股纳指、标普500指数， 创新高。 美股新高 6月27日晚间，美股三大指数高开高走，道指涨近500点，纳斯达克指数、标普500指 数盘中创下历史新高，这标志着美国股市今年经历了一场 几乎难以置信的逆转——在克服了贸易动荡 和地缘政治压力后，终于收复了2月份创下的历史高点。 今晚的上涨主要受到市场对 中美及其他国家即 将达成贸易协议的乐观预期推动。 消息面上，中方表示，近日，经批准，中美双方进一步确认了框架 细节。中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出口申请。美方将相应取消对华采取的一系列限制性措施。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，特朗普政府的贸易协议议程有望在 劳动节假期（9月初）前完成。商 务部长霍华德·卢特尼克前一天提到，白宫正计划 在短期内与10个主要贸易伙伴达成协议。 贝森特重申，美国目前有18个关键贸易伙伴，并指出美国已经与英国达成协议、与中国达成安排，所以 这两个国家"目前已处理完毕"。 而特朗普则称，一项"非常重大"的协议可能很快签署，该协议将 为美国企业打开印度市场。 据密歇根大学数据，6月 ...

【导读】贸易利好，美股新高 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚，美股纳指、标普500指数，创新高。 6月27日晚间，美股三大指数高开高走，道指涨近500点，纳斯达克指数、标普500指数盘中创下历史新高，这标志着美国股市今年 经历了一场 几乎难以置信的逆转 ——在克服了贸易动荡和地缘政治压力后，终于收复了2月份创下的历史高点。 | 最高: 43868.78 | 今开:43505.60 | 52周最高: 45073.63 | 量比: 1.23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最低: 43505.60 | 昨收:43386.84 | 52周最低: 36611.78 | 振幅:0.84% | | | 成交量: 2.52亿股 | | | | | | 分胴 五日 日K 周K 目K 季K 年K 120分 60分 30分 15分 5分 1分 | | | 区间统计 全屏显示 | | | 最新:43871.80 +484.96 +1.12% | | | | | | 43872.67 | | | | 1.1 | | 43751.21 | | | | 0.8 | | 4362975 ...

Market Performance - A-shares saw a morning surge with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15% to 3420.57 points, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.68%, and ChiNext Index increasing by 2.3%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 2.06% at 24177.07 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.14% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.9%[1] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached 2404.815 billion HKD[1] U.S. Market Trends - All three major U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, with the Dow Jones up 1.19%, S&P 500 increasing by 1.11% to 6092.18 points, and Nasdaq rising by 1.43%[1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a balanced stance on interest rate cuts, suggesting a wait-and-see approach regarding tariff impacts on the economy[8] Geopolitical Developments - A fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran remains in place, but the fate of highly enriched uranium is still uncertain, with the International Atomic Energy Agency seeking to return to Iran for verification[8][11] Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, emphasizing structural monetary policy tools and credit support for key service sectors[11]

Group 1: Coffee Price Trends - The International Coffee Price Index (I-CIP) fell to a four-month low in May, averaging 334.41 cents per pound, the lowest since January 2025 [1] - The increase in global certified coffee stocks by 28.1% month-on-month in May, reaching 9.27 million tons, indicates a boost in market liquidity as producers and traders accelerate shipments [3] - Coffee exports showed a positive trend, with April 2025 green coffee exports totaling 10.2 million bags, despite a 6.8% month-on-month decrease [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Multiple factors are influencing coffee price trends, including improved supply from major producers like Brazil and Colombia, better climate conditions, and eased global logistics pressures [5] - Consumer confidence remains strong despite high debt levels, with households showing a willingness to spend, which supports stable demand for coffee [5] - The USDA projects a slight increase in Brazil's coffee production by 0.2% for the 2024/25 season, while Peru is expected to see an 8% rise in production for 2025/26 [5] Group 3: Export Performance - Colombia's washed coffee exports reached 896,000 bags in April 2025, a 1.1% year-on-year increase, while Brazil's natural green bean exports fell by 14.4% [11] - The overall export volume of all forms of coffee in April 2025 was 11.43 million bags, a 5.5% year-on-year decline, primarily due to weak performance from South America [12] - The share of Arabica beans in total global exports increased from 59.9% to 63.3% year-on-year, reflecting a structural preference for higher-quality beans [11] Group 4: Market Structure and Pricing - The price gap between Colombian washed coffee and other washed coffees widened from 1.30 cents per pound to 2.25 cents per pound, indicating a recovery in quality premiums [6] - The arbitrage spread between London and New York futures markets increased by 6.6% to 143.58 cents per pound in May [8] - The price difference between Milds-Brazilian Naturals and Milds-Robustas expanded to 17.83 cents per pound, reflecting a structural preference for quality supply [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation may not be as strong as previously expected, suggesting the possibility of earlier interest rate cuts depending on labor market conditions [1][4]. Economic Outlook - Powell reported that the U.S. economy faced increased uncertainty, with consumer confidence declining due to concerns over trade policies [4]. - The first quarter GDP showed a slight decline, and consumer spending growth has slowed [4]. - Short-term inflation expectations have risen in recent months, while most long-term indicators remain aligned with the Fed's 2% inflation target [4]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% since the beginning of the year [4]. - Powell emphasized that the Fed is in a position to wait for more economic data before considering any adjustments to its policy stance [4]. - Tariff increases are expected to exert upward pressure on prices and impact economic activity [4].

6月，美国消费者信心意外下跌，突显出人们对于高关税可能对经济和就业市场造成冲击的持续担忧。 智通财经APP获悉，美国谘商会周二公布数据显示，其消费者信心指数在6月下降5.4点至93，低于外媒调查中 所有经济学家的预期区间。该指数的回落几乎抹去了5月份因中美达成临时缓解关税协议所带来的反弹。 数据显示，反映消费者对未来六个月预期的指数下降4.6点，受访者中预计未来商业状况好转的比例创下逾两 年来最大跌幅。而当前经济状况指数也下跌6.4点。 美国海军联邦信贷联盟首席经济学家Heather Long评论道："在当前这种环境下，消费者对大额支出持谨慎态 度并不令人意外。他们基本处于观望状态，除非迫不得已，否则不会购买房屋、汽车或大型家电。现在是一 个'高度谨慎经济体'。" 调查截至6月18日，仅比以色列对伊朗目标发动一系列袭击晚五天。虽然地缘政治成为部分受访者提及的话 题，影响仍有限，关税问题仍是大多数人关注的核心。 数据显示，认为"工作机会充足"的消费者比例降至29.2%，为四年多以来最低。认为"找工作难"的比例略有下 降。二者之间的差值(这是经济学家衡量劳动力市场紧张程度的重要指标)降至11.1个百分点，为202 ...