Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 30 日星期三 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | Jm2509 合约收于 932.0，环比上一交易日收盘下跌 1.58%。J2509 合约收于 1553.0，环 | | | | | 比上一交易日收盘下跌 0.58%。昨日夜盘，Jm2509 合约收于 920.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 | | | | | 1.29%，J2509 合约收于 1542.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.68%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国总统特朗普 29 日签署公告，允许对进口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生 | | | | | 产商进行一定程度的补偿。补偿金额最高可达汽车零售价格的 3.75%，这一补偿上限在 ...

插播 ：拒绝鱼龙混杂， 让优质项目脱颖而出！"2024-2025用户侧储能项目TOP10榜单"征集进行中。点击 "阅读原文" 进行申报 行家说储能最新消息， 4月29日，国家发展改革委办公厅、国家能源局综合司发布 了 《关于全面加快电力现货市场建设工作的通知 (发改办体改 〔2025〕394号)》，文件明确了20省电力现货市场运行时间表 ， 要求 2025 年底前基本实现电力现货市场全覆盖并全面开展连续结算运行 。 | 地区 | 电力现货市场运行 时间 | | --- | --- | | 湖北 省 | 2025年6月底前转入正式运行 | | 浙江 省 | 2025年底前转入正式运行 | | 福建、四川、辽宁、重庆、湖南、宁 夏、江苏、河北南网、江西、河南、上 海、吉林、黑龙江、新疆、蒙东、青海 | 2025年底前启动现货市场连续结算试运 行 | | 安徽 省 、陕西 省 | 力争在 2026年6月底前转入正式运行 | 2 0省电力现货市场运行时间表 来源：国家发改委官网；行家说储能绘制 行家说储能认为，这一重磅文件 对储能产业影响深远，主要体现在以下几个方面： 1. 储 能参与电力现货市场的机会扩大 ，储能价 ...

国家发展改革委、国家能源局印发《电力辅助服务市场基本规则》。 市场建设要充分考虑各地合理诉求，加快形成工作合力，更好促进资源大范围优化配置。 广发证券发布研报称，3月全社会用电增速回升至4.8%，火电电量降幅收窄，清洁能源贡献度提升。当 前电力板块基本面持续改善，煤价下行叠加容量电价机制优化，火电企业盈利修复确定性增强，水电及 绿电亦具备结构性机会。建议关注三大投资组合：(1)稳健防御型水电及区域能源;(2)弹性火电标的;3)政 策驱动的绿电进攻组合。 国盛证券发布研报称，电力逆周期属性凸显，风格切换与基本面支撑共振，重视布局机会。该行认为， 电力央企的集体增持行动，彰显股东信心。在短期市场波动下市场风格偏好向下，电力逆周期属性凸 显。 其中提出，国家能源局派出机构会同省级价格、能源主管部门要根据《规则》和发改价格〔2024〕196 号文件等有关规定，及时组织市场运营机构制修订辅助服务市场实施细则，维护统一的公平竞争制度， 确保与《规则》要求一致。 电力现货市场连续运行的地区，要完善现货市场规则，适当放宽市场限价，引导实现调峰功能，调峰及 顶峰、调峰容量等具有类似功能的市场不再运行。 国家发展改革委办公厅、国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.17 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.67%, and a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the company expects a revenue of 1.56 billion yuan, a 17.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, up 31.1% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company’s pumped storage capacity reached 10.28 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, accounting for 17.5% of the national installed capacity. There are 9 pumped storage stations under construction with a total capacity of 10.8 million kilowatts [2][4]. - The company’s hydropower generation increased by 57% in 2024, leading to a 55.5% rise in revenue. The new energy storage capacity reached 654.2 MW/1,298.3 MWh by the end of 2024 [4]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s financial projections indicate a net profit of 1.16 billion yuan for 2025, 1.44 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.59 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26.4, 21.1, and 19.2 respectively [4][11]. - The revenue for 2025 is projected to be 7.64 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 23.72% compared to 2024 [12][13]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2024 is estimated at 4.08 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 18.25% [12][13].

随着AI爆发，大模型的参数量、数据中心的规模都呈现几何式增长，这背后，需要庞大的电力来 驱动计算、存储以及冷却系统。 电力，日益演变为制约AI发展的达摩克里斯之剑。 有数据显示，2023年，美国数据中心停机的原因中，52%是由于电力供给不足所致。这一数字在 2020年还仅为37%。 埃隆·马斯克、萨姆·奥尔特曼、黄仁勋等科技大佬都曾对电力紧缺表达过担忧。一时间，储备电 力粮草成为科技巨头们的必修课。而由于化石能源并不符合全球碳中和的宏大叙事，科技大厂纷 纷投向清洁能源。 但其中，地热、核电、风能等受制于地域限制、建设周期长等因素，"光伏+储能" 极有可能成为 解决AI电力问题的最佳方案。 AI的尽头是电力。 向ChatGPT发起提问，当手指在键盘上敲下Enter键，就如同开启了一个庞大的多米诺骨牌，其背 后调动的资源数以亿计。 "我们在创造历史。" 2024年10月18日，美国能源部长詹妮弗·格兰霍姆出席该国历史上最大的光伏项目 "猎户座太阳能 带" 的开幕式时，发出了这样的感叹。 这个由日本软银旗下SB Energy建设的超级光伏电站，合计能产出875MW的清洁能源，几乎相当 于一个典型核电设施的规模。而其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of electricity supply in the development of AI technologies, highlighting the increasing energy demands of data centers and the potential of solar energy combined with storage solutions as a viable answer to these challenges [1][12][25]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and AI - The opening of the "Orion Solar Belt" project, the largest solar photovoltaic project in the U.S., aims to address the growing electricity needs of AI and data centers, with 875MW of clean energy production [1]. - AI technologies, such as ChatGPT, consume significantly more electricity than traditional services, with each response requiring about 2.9 watt-hours, which is nearly ten times that of a Google search [2][5]. - The energy consumption of AI models is escalating, with GPT-3 requiring 1287 MWh for a single training session, enough to power 3000 Tesla cars for 200,000 miles [8]. Group 2: Current Energy Infrastructure Challenges - The U.S. energy infrastructure is aging, with 70% of transformers over 25 years old, leading to vulnerabilities in electricity supply [19][22]. - Historical blackouts, such as the 2003 event affecting 50 million people, illustrate the fragility of the current power grid [14][15]. - The U.S. data center electricity consumption has surged from 58 TWh in 2014 to 176 TWh in 2023, projected to reach 325-580 TWh by 2028 [9]. Group 3: Renewable Energy Solutions - Solar energy combined with storage is viewed as the most feasible solution for powering data centers, with a cost of 0.35 yuan/kWh for a 100MW data center using solar and storage [26]. - The global renewable energy sector is expected to see a significant increase, with an estimated 580 GW of new solar and wind capacity added in 2024, five times the capacity in 2015 [27]. - The need for energy storage solutions is critical, as current storage capacity lags significantly behind renewable generation, with only 11.9% of storage capacity compared to solar and wind installations [27]. Group 4: Future of Energy Storage - The energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a demand for over 1 TWh of storage by 2030 in China alone [28]. - The economic viability of energy storage projects is currently challenged, with many projects showing negative returns on investment due to high costs and low utilization rates [31]. - The establishment of a robust electricity spot market is essential for improving the economic feasibility of energy storage, allowing for better price discovery and utilization of storage resources [41][45]. Group 5: Industry Dynamics and Competition - The storage industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in registered companies, indicating a potential oversupply and intense competition [53][54]. - The industry faces challenges such as price wars and quality concerns, with calls for a focus on safety and technological innovation rather than just cost-cutting [54][55]. - Future competition in the storage sector will hinge on technological advancements, capital management, and global market strategies, as companies strive for leadership in the renewable energy landscape [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power and utilities sector, with specific stock recommendations including "Buy" for Guodian Power and "Hold" for several other companies [1][4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerated construction of the electricity spot market and a rebound in sector performance, with the public utilities sector index rising by 2.19% during the week [2][10]. - The report notes that the current PE (TTM) for the public utilities sector is 16.51, slightly up from 16.22 the previous week, indicating a recovery in valuations [22][25]. - Key events include the National Development and Reform Commission's push for the rapid development of the electricity spot market and the Ministry of Finance's efforts to regulate clean energy funding [34][35]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The public utilities sector index outperformed major indices, with a 2.19% increase, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [2][10]. - The sector's PE (TTM) increased to 16.51 from 16.22, while the PB rose to 1.72 from 1.68 [22][25]. Individual Stock Performance - Top gainers for the week included Kaitian Gas (+34.65%) and ST Lingda (+24.16%), while notable losers included Shaoneng Co. (-5.62%) and Changqing Group (-2.33%) [3][28][33]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the establishment of a unified national electricity market and the promotion of renewable energy integration, with specific initiatives in various provinces [34][36]. - The report also mentions the introduction of a capacity pricing mechanism for gas-fired power plants in Zhejiang to enhance their operational efficiency [37]. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the Qinhuangdao Shanxi mixed coal price was 683 RMB/ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 0.44% [43][44]. - Green certificate trading data indicates a total of 30.07 and 49.25 thousand transactions for wind and solar power respectively during the week [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power and utilities sector, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [3][20][21]. Core Insights - The power sector outperformed the broader market, with the public utility sector index rising by 2.19% and the electricity sub-sector by 2.21% during the week ending March 14, 2025 [1][7]. - Significant investments are being made in renewable energy projects, particularly in the "Shagou Desert" area, with major state-owned enterprises planning substantial capacity expansions [2][23]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the electricity spot market construction and the establishment of a unified national electricity market system [2][28]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The public utility sector index closed at 2287.91 points, up 49.11 points, while the electricity sub-sector closed at 3042.41 points, up 65.87 points, indicating strong performance compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.59% [1][7]. - Among the electricity sub-sectors, photovoltaic power generation saw a rise of 4.68%, followed by thermal services at 3.80%, and comprehensive energy services at 3.57% [14][19]. Investment Recommendations - For thermal power, the report recommends companies like Sheneng Co. and Funeng Co., while cautiously recommending Waneng Power and Huadian International [3][19]. - In the green energy sector, it suggests investing in Three Gorges Energy and keeping an eye on new energy companies like Xintian Green Energy [3][19]. - The report highlights the stable performance of large hydropower companies, recommending Changjiang Electric Power, and notes the growth potential in nuclear power with a recommendation for China Nuclear Power [3][19]. Industry Developments - The report discusses the ongoing construction of the "Shagou Desert" renewable energy base and the promotion of cross-regional energy dispatch projects to enhance energy supply security [2][22]. - It notes that Xinjiang's electricity export volume reached 126.4 billion kilowatt-hours in 2024, marking a continuous increase over five years [2][23]. - The establishment of a national carbon market and the first cross-regional green electricity transaction are highlighted as significant steps towards market integration [28][29].