汇率双周报系列之三 2025 年 07 月 08 日 弱美元与"去美元化"是两码事！ —— "汇率"观察双周报系列之三 4 月初关税落地以来，美元汇率不升反降。"去美元化"已成为市场共识，关键问题是：弱美 元是周期性的还是趋势性的，美元再度走强的宏观场景有哪些？ 一、近期美元走弱的驱动？更多受降息预期影响，"周期性"因素主导 近期美元再度大幅走弱，引发市场对"去美元化"叙事的密切关注。截至 7 月 4 日，美元指数 已跌破 97 关口，一度创 2022 年以来新低；相较 5 月 12 日反弹后的阶段性高点，美元贬值幅 度高达 4.7%。分国别来看，美元兑发达经济体货币表现更弱，兑新兴市场也多有贬值。 降息预期的快速升温或是近期美元走弱的主要原因。6 月 10 日以来，联邦基金利率隐含的年 内降息次数由 1.8 次最高升至 2.7 次，10Y 美债利率随之快速下行 23bp，成为美元走弱的主 要驱动。降息预期升温是三方面因素的共振：通胀低于预期、经济弱于预期、联储官员放鸽。 伊以冲突缓和导致"避险"情绪退坡，美元空头回补，进一步加速了美元回落。1）近期美元 走势与油价高度相关，随着伊以冲突缓和、油价回落，美元也 ...

Group 1 - The trading volume of euro options is slightly below recent average levels according to DTCC data [1] - The euro/GBP increased by 0.5% to 0.8583, while the euro/CHF decreased by 0.2% to 0.9342 [1] - Morgan Stanley's David Adams and his team believe that the euro/USD rally is only halfway completed, driven by both technical and fundamental factors [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the euro exchange rate will reach 1.27 USD by the end of 2026, compared to Bloomberg's consensus forecast of 1.20 USD [1]

欧元/美元在6月最后一周达到1.1754，创下自2021年9月以来的最高点。周五收盘时，该货币对在1.1720附近整理，保持其积极的动能。 中东停火 美元（USD）在本周开局强劲，因中东冲突升级而对大多数主要对手货币大幅上涨。周末，美国对伊朗铀设施发动了大规模攻击，特朗普总统通过社交媒 体报告称他们已"摧毁"了核计划。德黑兰则以导弹袭击美国在卡塔尔的军事基地进行报复，市场参与者感到恐慌。 然而，周一晚些时候，特朗普总统宣布伊朗与以色列之间的停火，经过大约两周的导弹攻击交锋。尽管最初对潜在停火的怀疑，金融市场迅速转向乐观。 随着冲突实际降温，风险偏好占据主导地位。因此，原油价格暴跌，全球股市上涨，美元下跌。 美联储主席鲍威尔半年度证词 在美联储（Fed）主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在国会就货币政策作证后，美元承压。在他的半年度出席中，鲍威尔降低了对7月降息的预期，因对关税对通胀影响 的不确定性。同时，鲍威尔重申经济依然稳健，并表示美国没有衰退。最后，鲍威尔指出，特朗普总统对降息的要求对美联储的政策没有影响。 这引发了特朗普的愤怒。 在荷兰举行的北约首脑会议后，他声称："我们没有通胀。我们有一个巨大的经济。数千亿美元的关税 ...

Group 1 - The market is optimistic about trade agreements, which has increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve before September has risen from approximately 70% to 92.4% [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate-setting committee will meet next month, but there will be no meeting in August [3] Group 2 - The US dollar index has slightly increased by 0.1% to 97.276, but remains close to a three-year low of 96.933 [3] - The euro has weakened slightly against the dollar, trading at 1.1716, just below the highest level since September 2021 [3] - The British pound is stable against the dollar at 1.3709, near its highest level since October 2021 [3] Group 3 - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that the US dollar's performance this week will be influenced by US trade dynamics [4] - Positive news regarding trade agreements is expected to support the US dollar against major currencies like the euro, yen, and pound [4] - Conversely, the US dollar may decline against other currencies such as the Australian dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has caused significant regret among dollar holders, as the offshore RMB exchange rate has surged to a new high since November of the previous year, reaching 7.16 [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The RMB's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes, which has diminished the dollar's attractiveness [5]. - China's economy has shown robust resilience, with favorable foreign trade data and a significant increase in trade surplus, leading to strong demand for currency exchange [5]. - Continuous inflow of foreign capital into the A-share market has further supported the RMB, as foreign investors convert dollars to RMB for investment [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The People's Bank of China's subtle policy adjustments have effectively guided market sentiment, with the central parity rate of the RMB being raised multiple times, signaling stability [3]. - Market reactions have been swift, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a narrowing price gap, indicating strong buying interest [3]. - Most institutions predict that the RMB will maintain its strength in the second half of the year, with a trading range expected between 7.1 and 7.2, although unforeseen events could lead to volatility [9]. Group 3: Impacts of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB benefits outbound travelers and online shoppers, as they can save significantly on expenses when converting currency [8]. - Conversely, export-oriented companies face pressure as clients demand lower prices, leading to reduced profit margins [8].

Core Viewpoint - The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran could lead to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly affecting the gold market and international exchange rates, with next week's trends being highly uncertain [1] Group 1: Impact on Gold Market - Geopolitical conflicts are major drivers of gold price fluctuations, with gold being regarded as the "king of safe-haven assets" [3] - Historical instances, such as the post-9/11 period and the U.S.-Iran conflict in early 2020, show that gold prices can surge significantly during crises, with increases exceeding 20% in some cases [3] - If the U.S. bombs Iran, a strong upward trend in gold prices is likely due to heightened war risks and increased demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - War typically raises inflation expectations, which could further enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against inflation, leading to increased investment in gold [3] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Gold prices are also influenced by the U.S. dollar exchange rate, global economic growth expectations, and central bank monetary policies [4] - A strong dollar usually suppresses gold prices, while a weak dollar supports them; however, military actions may initially boost the dollar due to safe-haven flows, creating short-term pressure on gold [4] - Long-term economic uncertainty and inflation pressures from military actions could weaken the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a potential return of funds to the gold market [4] Group 3: Impact on International Exchange Rates - The U.S. bombing of Iran is expected to create significant turbulence in the foreign exchange market, with the dollar likely experiencing a temporary surge due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Historical trends, such as during the Gulf War, indicate that the dollar index may rise during crises, but prolonged military spending and economic uncertainty could negatively impact the dollar's long-term stability [5] - The euro may face pressure due to potential disruptions in trade with the Middle East, while the yen could attract safe-haven flows but may be limited by rising import costs from increased oil prices [6] - Emerging market currencies are likely to face greater pressure, with potential capital outflows leading to currency depreciation and stock market declines [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar has appreciated by 3.5% against the US dollar in the second quarter, driven by rising oil prices and negative sentiment towards the US dollar, despite domestic economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Domestic demand in Canada is weak, and the unemployment rate is rising, which casts a shadow over the outlook for the Canadian dollar [1] - The Canadian bank anticipates that the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates in July, contrary to current expectations, which may weaken the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2: Political and Market Dynamics - The recent throne speech in Ottawa marks a departure from the practices of the Trudeau era, making Canada more attractive for private capital [1] - The Canadian bank projects that the USD/CAD exchange rate will peak at 1.38 before trending towards 1.34 [1]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped significantly by 7.9 basis points, reaching a low of below 4.3750% due to the ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing index causing notable downward trends [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell approximately 7.0 basis points, hitting a low of below 3.88% [1] - The U.S. dollar depreciated against the Japanese yen by 0.5%, trading at 143.25, and against the Swiss franc by 0.5%, trading at 0.8192 [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index's gain narrowed to 0.1%, while the Nasdaq 100 index turned negative [1] - Emerging market currency index reached a new daily high [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly focusing on the strengthening of the RMB against the USD and the implications of these changes in the context of geopolitical and economic shifts [1][3]. Group 1: Three Confusions Regarding RMB Exchange Rate - The first confusion is that despite advancements in China's manufacturing technology and productivity, the actual RMB exchange rate has depreciated significantly since 2022, contradicting the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis (BSH) [3][7]. - The second confusion highlights the historical divergence between the nominal effective exchange rate and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB, which has reached unprecedented levels since 2022 [8][18]. - The third confusion points out that the depreciation of the RMB against the USD has been less than that of other currencies from China's trading partners, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting exchange rates [10][21]. Group 2: Analysis of the First Confusion - The limitations of the BSH are discussed, emphasizing that the hypothesis does not account for prolonged demand deficiencies, which can prevent price increases despite productivity gains [11][16]. - The article argues that the BSH primarily focuses on supply-side factors while neglecting the financial perspective, which can also influence the actual exchange rate [16][18]. Group 3: Analysis of the Second Confusion - The divergence between the nominal and actual effective exchange rates reflects a significant widening of the inflation gap between China and its trading partners, with China's inflation remaining low while that of major partners has increased [18][19]. - The article notes that China's inflation has been declining, with CPI growth averaging 0.2% from 2023 to 2024, contrasting sharply with the higher inflation rates in the US and other trading partners [19][20]. Group 4: Analysis of the Third Confusion - The RMB's depreciation against the USD has been less severe compared to the depreciation of currencies from other trading partners, suggesting that the current account has provided some support to the RMB [21][23]. - The article highlights that from January 2021 to April 2025, the RMB depreciated by 12% against the USD, while other currencies like the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar experienced much larger depreciations [22][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - In the short term, there may be room for the RMB to appreciate against the USD, especially if the USD faces downward pressure due to fiscal and trade deficits [5][43]. - The article suggests that if the accumulated current account surplus is converted into RMB more rapidly, it could further support the RMB's appreciation [44][50]. - The analysis indicates that the RMB may have upward potential by the end of the year, driven by a weaker USD and supportive domestic factors [51][53].

彭博美元指数与国债收益率同步大幅下跌，因数据显示上周初请失业金人数增幅超预期，且美国第一季 度国内生产总值(GDP)出现萎缩。这些数据发布之前，美国国际贸易法院叫停了上月实施的政府多项广 泛关税措施，但该决定随即被美国联邦巡回上诉法院暂缓执行。 丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne在上诉裁决后表示："关税混乱局面仍在持续。不得不让人怀 疑，投资者是否已对贸易政策的反复无常感到厌倦。" 智通财经APP获悉，周四公布的美国经济数据表现疲弱，加之联邦巡回上诉法院暂缓执行此前阻止特朗 普政府全球关税的裁决，加剧了投资者对经济增长前景的担忧，导致美元承压。 期权交易员对未来一年的美元前景仍持看跌观点，但信心略有减弱。所谓的一个月期风险逆转期权(用 于追踪美元看涨和看跌押注之间的需求差异)继续显示出对下行保护的偏好。 | Currency | May 5-9 | May 12-16 | May 19-23 | May 26-29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Australian dollar | 53.0 | 57.5 | 53.3 | 58.3 | | Euro ...