文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，扩内需信号进一步明确，主要涉及就业、地产、股市、服务消费等。 1 、高层定调：总理在三次会议或调研上，均高度关注经济问题。 1 ） 4 月 15 日， 总理在北京调研 消费及地产相关内容。 2 ） 4 月 17 日， 总理主持国务院专题学习，以预期管理为主题，提出要"要 讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影 响。 要把握政策力度，必要时敢于打破常规 "。 3 ） 4 月 18 日，总理主持召开国常会，研究稳就业 稳经济问题。提出要" 锚定经济社会发展目标 ，加大逆周期调节力度"。 2 、股市楼市： 1 ） 4 月 15 日 ，总理在北京调研时提出，"当前和今后一个时期，我国房地产市场 仍有很大的发展空间"。 2 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常会，"要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产 市场平稳健康发展"。 3 、消费及就业 ： 1 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with expectations of an upward movement exceeding 15% in the next 3-6 months [11][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant acceleration in the growth of the catering sector, with March retail catering revenue increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, up from 4.3% in the previous month. Notably, revenue from enterprises above a certain threshold rose by 6.8%, marking the first time in 12 months that this segment outpaced overall growth [2][18]. - The "2025 Service Consumption Quality Improvement and Benefit Action Plan" was released, outlining 48 specific measures across six areas to enhance service consumption, including catering, accommodation, and tourism [2][21]. - High booking interest for the upcoming May Day holiday was reported, with hotel and flight searches on Ctrip increasing by 100% and 80% respectively week-on-week, and a year-on-year increase of 200% in hotel searches for inbound travel [3][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Updates - The catering sector continues to show improvement, with March retail catering revenue growth accelerating. The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption policies and the upcoming May Day holiday as key drivers [2][18]. - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management by Tongcheng Travel for approximately 2.497 billion yuan is noted, with an EV/EBITDA valuation of 9.5 times. This acquisition is seen as strategically beneficial for enhancing Tongcheng's hotel supply chain [4][26]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the social service sector has shown a strong performance, with the sector's index rising by 8.64% over the past two weeks, ranking third among 31 major industry sectors [8][29]. - Specific stock performances are highlighted, with notable increases in the catering sector, including a 12.73% rise in A-share catering stocks [8][29]. Company Performance - Action Education reported a revenue of 780 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a 16.5% increase, with a net profit of 270 million yuan, up 22.4% [5][28]. - Jiuhua Tourism is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 69 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a 32% year-on-year growth, driven by strong visitor traffic [4][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the catering sector, particularly on growth-oriented companies and undervalued leaders affected by tariff impacts, with specific mentions of brands like Gu Ming and Da Shi [9][16]. - In the hotel and tourism sectors, attention is drawn to quality scenic spots and hotel stocks, particularly Shou Lv Hotel [9][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and creating more consumption scenarios to continuously release consumption potential, highlighting the need for high-quality supply to create effective demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The relationship between consumption stagnation and supply not meeting demand is noted, with a structural contradiction of excess low-end supply and insufficient high-quality supply [2]. - The article points out that while the consumption structure in China has been optimizing, there is still a significant need for innovation in products and services to meet the evolving consumer demands [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - As residents' income levels rise, there is a shift towards development-oriented, enjoyment-oriented, and quality-oriented consumption, indicating a need for deeper exploration of these demands [2]. - The first quarter of this year saw a 5.4% year-on-year increase in per capita service consumption expenditure, which accounted for 43.4% of total per capita consumption expenditure, suggesting a shift towards service consumption as a primary development direction [3]. Group 3: Policy and Support for Innovation - The article mentions the issuance of the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" by the Central and State Offices, which aims to enhance consumption capacity through income increases and burden reductions [1]. - It highlights the necessity for enterprises to innovate in products and services to enhance competitiveness, with a call for supportive measures from relevant departments, especially for private and small enterprises [2]. Group 4: Future Directions for Consumption - The need to cultivate a complete internal demand system is emphasized, with a focus on both enhancing traditional consumption and fostering new types of consumption [3]. - The article advocates for the promotion of green and low-carbon consumption, aiming for a positive interaction between supply upgrades and consumption upgrades through targeted policies [3].

【导读】A股旅游股集体拉升，"五一"假期热度或将达近三年峰值 | < 1 | | 旅游酒店 | | 7 Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 15988.13 1.58% | | | | 成份股 | 资金 | 关联基金 必读 | 股呢 | 资讯 | | 全部市场(37) v | 自选 | 龙头(9) | 连板数(1) | 连续3天 | | ◎ 隐藏标签 | | 最新, | 涨幅↓ | 涨跌 | | 君亭酒店 | | 26.09 | 11.02% | 2.59 | | 301073 融 | | | | | | 股吧人气 资金流入最多 | | | | | | 金陵饭店 | | 7.69 | 10.01% | 0.70 | | 601007 | | | | | | 今日首板 股吧人气 | | | | | | 天府文旅 | | 4.69 | 6.83% | 0.30 | | 000558 | | | | | | 人气龙头 股吧人气 成交活跃 | | | | | | 全聚德 | | 11.38 | 4.79% | 0.52 | | 002186 | | | | | | 同大 ...

Group 1 - The service consumption sector is experiencing a significant surge, with tourism hotels, medical beauty, and property management leading the gains [1] - Notable stocks such as Huatian Hotel, Nanjing Shanglv, and Zhongtian Service have reached their daily limit up, while Jinling Hotel has seen two consecutive limit ups [1] - A press conference is scheduled for April 21, where officials will discuss the "Comprehensive Pilot Work Plan for Accelerating the Expansion of Service Industry Opening" [1]

Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]

作者： 陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 一方面，当前环境下人民币贬值"弊大于利"。 面对高额关税，人民币贬值对冲外贸的效果微乎其微，反而可能加剧资金外流的风险。从 近年经验来看， 7.35 （美元兑人民币）或是需要"坚守"的底线。 另一方面，人民币贬值也与我国"捍卫多边主义"的基调不符。 近年来，其他主要亚洲货币基本"锚定"人民币汇率波动。若人民币"失 守"，可能引起其他经济体的"竞争性"贬值，对稳定市场、构建反制同盟等均有不利影响。 其次，降准或快于降息，辅之于结构性货币政策利率调降。 为什么降准优先于降息？ 从 2023 年以来的历次操作来看，降准开始更多承载稳定市场的功能。尤其在 2024 年 12 月政治局会议上，首次 将"稳住楼市股市"作为经济工作的重点任务。 考虑到关税已落地、二季度政府债供给压力上行等，预计降准将先行落地以对冲市场下 跌。 如我们上篇报告《 关税风暴：政策对冲的经济账 》所述，随着关税风险的兑现， 当前市场的核心矛盾已转化为经济下行和政策对冲的角 力。 打铁还需自身硬，清明假期最后一天官媒的发声，表明决策层已经就应对冲击做好了各种预案， 我们预计 4 月底的政治局会议将给 增量的储备政策定 ...

Group 1 - The core idea is that Xi'an is actively developing its "first store economy," significantly diversifying and internationalizing its consumer market, with a projected addition of 436 new brand first stores in 2024, representing a 24.5% increase from 2023 [1][3] - Among the new first stores, 367 are domestic brands (84.1%) and 69 are international brands (15.8%), indicating a strong focus on local brand development [1] - In terms of store levels, Xi'an will see 13 national first stores, 168 Northwest first stores, 10 Shaanxi first stores, and 245 Xi'an first stores in 2024, with the Northwest first stores accounting for 38% of the total new first stores, showing a significant increase of 76.8% from 95 stores in 2023 [1] Group 2 - The Xi'an Municipal Bureau of Commerce aims to leverage the city's resource advantages and cultural heritage to stimulate large-scale consumption, expand service consumption, and develop new consumption models, including the first store economy, silver economy, night economy, and holiday economy [2] - The focus will also be on promoting digital, green, health, and service consumption, indicating a comprehensive approach to enhancing the consumer landscape in Xi'an [2]

Core Insights - Beijing is accelerating the construction of an international consumption center city, with a focus on diversifying, digitizing, and greening the consumption market [1][2] - The city plans to introduce nearly 30 measures to boost consumption, aiming to become a global hub for new product launches and a benchmark for service consumption [1][2] - The establishment of the "2025 Beijing International Consumption Center City Think Tank" is expected to play a significant role in guiding research and practice in the consumption sector [3][4] Consumption Trends - The service consumption sector is becoming a crucial driver of economic growth, with a notable increase in service consumption growth rates surpassing overall retail sales [5][6] - Digital and green consumption are also emerging as significant contributors to consumption growth, with increasing consumer demand for sustainable products [5][6] - The integration of various consumption scenarios, such as sports and cultural events, is seen as a way to enhance the consumer experience and attract more visitors [7][12] Policy and Infrastructure Development - Beijing has established a comprehensive service guarantee mechanism for large events, significantly reducing processing times for permits [2][6] - The city has built 693 "quarter-hour" convenience living circles, achieving an 81% coverage rate, and plans to continue enhancing commercial infrastructure [1][2] - The introduction of policies like the "old for new" consumption initiative is expected to stimulate consumer spending in major categories [6][9] Brand and Market Dynamics - The number of traditional brands in Beijing is increasing, with 274 old brands, including 137 national-level brands, positioning the city as a leader in this sector [2][10] - There is a strong emphasis on brand innovation and the development of international brands to enhance Beijing's competitiveness in the global market [10][14] - The rise of new consumer trends, such as the pet economy and emotional spending, indicates a shift in consumer preferences that businesses need to address [9][10] Cultural and Tourism Integration - The integration of culture and tourism is identified as a key path for consumption upgrade, with a focus on leveraging cultural resources to drive economic growth [12][14] - The development of cultural IP and the promotion of traditional sports are seen as opportunities to enhance Beijing's international appeal [7][12] - The city aims to create a unique consumption aesthetic that reflects its cultural heritage, attracting global consumers [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The social retail sales total for January-February 2025 reached 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. The service consumption market is showing stable growth, particularly in dining and travel services, while e-commerce is recovering faster than the overall retail market [1][2][4]. - The report highlights the impact of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" policy, which is expected to drive positive trends in service consumption and the retail industry [1][2]. - In terms of category performance, essential goods such as grain, oil, and food saw a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while discretionary categories like cosmetics and clothing showed improvements with growth rates of 3.3% and 4.4%, respectively [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 132 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,158 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,055.2 billion yuan [3]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry index over the past month is -10.8%, with a 6-month performance of 44.2% and a 12-month performance of 11.1%. Relative performance shows a decline of -7.9% over the past month, but a positive 35.6% over 6 months [4]. Retail Sales Breakdown - In January-February, the retail sales of essential goods grew by 11.5% for grain and oil, and 5.5% for daily necessities. The retail sales of household appliances increased by 10.9%, while the telecommunications equipment category, driven by new government subsidies for mobile phones, surged by 26.2% [2][19].