Group 1 - The impact of tariffs on various industries is significant, with the U.S. relying heavily on imports of manufactured goods from China, while China imports mainly commodities from the U.S. [4] - Over 70% of products imported by the U.S. from China account for 36% of total imports, while only 10% of products imported by China from the U.S. have a similar reliance [4] - The contribution of exports to the U.S. from China is less than 3% of China's GDP, indicating that excessive tariffs may not significantly harm China's economy [4] Group 2 - Tariffs are expected to indirectly affect the profitability of Chinese companies through a slowdown in global GDP growth, with Goldman Sachs lowering its U.S. economic growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 2.5% to 0.5% [5][6] - The anticipated increase in China's fiscal deficit to 14.5% of GDP and a 60 basis point cut in interest rates are expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts of tariffs [6] Group 3 - The Chinese government may increase fiscal support for affected export products and consider measures to assist the 10-20 million jobs linked to exports to the U.S. [7] - Infrastructure projects may be expedited to stimulate GDP growth amidst trade tensions [7] Group 4 - The current market response to U.S.-China relations is less intense than in previous years, with the Goldman Sachs U.S.-China Relations Index indicating lower pressure compared to the peaks of 2022-2023 [8][9] Group 5 - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the A-share market have shown effectiveness, with a focus on attracting long-term investments and improving shareholder returns [10] - The national team's intervention has provided market stability, with sufficient liquidity support available if needed [11] Group 6 - Overseas funds have increased their positions in Chinese stocks, particularly in the AI sector, with a notable rise in allocations to emerging markets and Asia [12] - A-shares are expected to outperform H-shares in the next three months due to domestic investor stability and government support [13][14] Group 7 - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and government-related industries, which are expected to be less negatively impacted by external risks [15][16] Group 8 - The likelihood of Chinese companies being forced to delist from U.S. markets is lower than in previous trade disputes, as many have already listed in Hong Kong [17] Group 9 - The extent of tariff increases will depend on the desired outcomes, balancing revenue generation and the potential loss of exports [18] Group 10 - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields has raised questions about who is selling U.S. debt, with diversification of foreign reserves being a potential factor [19]

Group 1 - The CSI 300 Index experienced a slight decline of 0.02% as of April 29, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, led by Huichuan Technology with a rise of 4.41% [1] - The CSI 300 ETF saw significant growth in scale, increasing by 8.184 billion yuan over the past six months, and its shares grew by 4.032 billion [3] - The CSI 300 Index is currently valued at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.34, which is below 80.83% of its historical data, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index as of March 31, 2025, include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, and others, collectively accounting for 23.04% of the index [4] - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund, providing an opportunity for low-cost entry into the market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view and recommends cautious long - positions [6][7] 2. Core View - The attitude of US tariff policy is inconsistent, but the sensitivity of the A - share market to tariff policy has weakened. Without a substantial policy shift, it is difficult to have a significant impact on domestic stock indices. The core of market trading focuses more on domestic policy expectations [6] - Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of April. If substantial favorable policies are released, the index is expected to rise [6] - Market sentiment is not overly optimistic. The historical quantile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is below 5%. The trading volume of the two markets has declined again, and market sentiment is cautious. Before the implementation of policy benefits, a cautiously optimistic view is maintained [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the Shanghai 50 Index, all other indices closed down. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1206.95 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM fell with reduced volume [4] Important Information - Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China will fight if provoked and is open to talks. The US Treasury Secretary caused fluctuations in the US stock market, mentioning "significant" trade agreement opportunities and also stating that the US has not proposed tariff reduction [5] Strategy Recommendation - Recommend cautious long - positions [7] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change | Volume | Volume MoM | Open Interest | Open Interest MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.07% | 8.3579 | - 0.055 | 246,898 | - 890 | | IH | 0.32% | 4.1283 | 0.0782 | 80,085 | - 610 | | IC | - 0.31% | 7.5303 | - 1.1813 | 203,548 | - 4,910 | | IM | - 0.90% | 20.9041 | - 1.6265 | 316,470 | - 2,832 | [8] Spot Market Observation | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.03 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | - 0.58 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.42 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 11,090.19 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 1206.95 | [9]

Group 1 - A-shares showed weak performance this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.03% to 3297.29 points, while all other major indices declined, including the Shenzhen Composite Index down by 0.71% and the ChiNext Index down by 1.03% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market was 11,389 billion, a decrease from 12,625 billion on Wednesday [1] - The banking, electric power, beauty care, chemical pharmaceuticals, and biological products sectors saw the largest gains, while software development, internet services, communication services, computer equipment, engineering machinery, and semiconductors experienced the largest declines [1] Group 2 - The US stock market saw significant gains overnight, with the Dow Jones up by 1.07%, the S&P 500 up by 1.67%, and the Nasdaq up by 2.50% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market declined on Thursday, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.46% [1] - The US dollar index rose by 0.93% on Wednesday but retraced approximately 0.60% during the Asian and European trading sessions on Thursday [1] Group 3 - The recent appreciation of the RMB was attributed to signs of easing in overseas tariff policies, despite the dollar strengthening [1] - The unexpected decline in A-shares on Thursday may be linked to excessive discounting in futures contracts [1] - The market is expected to maintain a relatively balanced stance, with investors advised to hold and observe, as uncertainties regarding tariff developments persist [2]

A股开盘，上证指数开涨0.25%，深证成指开涨0.87%，创业板指开涨1.14%。 ...

今天，上交所召开私募机构座谈会了，大家也应该看到大盘指数十连阳是不常见的，因为这次连续收涨量化机构不砸盘了？这说明近期量化交易收敛了很 多。 现在市场上多空分歧还是很大，但是稳定股市是现在的目标，机构这个时候需要发力共同维护市场稳定，而不是趁机扰乱市场交易秩序。 所以，尽管很多人一直认为A股缩量要大跌，但还是走出了持续的反弹向上，尤其是今天个股赚钱氛围回升之后，量能也开始放大了，说明信心也在慢慢恢 复了。 四是发布实施自由贸易试验区提升战略意见，自贸区高水平对外开放，高质量发展稳定经济； 现在几乎每天都有和股市直接相关的利好消息，这说明A股市场的战略意义得到了提升。 很多人比较在意A股市场量能不足，但是缩量情况下可以保持稳定拉升，更能说明当前主力资金筹码较为集中而且市场抛压整体较轻。 除了以上这些现象还不够，因为今天盘后还有这些关键消息： 一是人币国际化进程在加速； 二是美y指数最低跌破98美y，美指数的大跌反映出市场资金对于美元资产的担忧； 三是上交所召开私募机构座谈会，目的是希望机构联手推动股市持续上涨； 大盘指数可能不会一直连阳下去，但是现在的趋势是偏多的，这周指数反弹依旧不会很快，但是个股机会会明显增 ...

海外策略：关税主导预期，降息高度谨慎 美债方面，受益于关税政策的暂缓、贝森特表明会在必要时支持美债市场，美债市场的悲观情绪有所缓和，美 债利率高位回落。从基本面的角度来看，我们认为美国经济滞胀风险正在升高，美联储受制于通胀担忧，短期 内降息概率不高，美债利率走势或为宽幅震荡，维持高配中短久期美债的观点不变。 美元方面，短期看，美元有可能进一步向下。中期看，美元基本面的优势正在明显下降。一方面德国财政立场 由保守转为扩张令"美强欧弱"叙事遭遇挑战。另一方面，市场对关税政策的担忧更多集中在了"衰退"层面，美 国经济下行风险增大，对美元不利。 人民币方面，汇率依然面临中美利差倒挂、关税等客观压力。但是自美国推出对等关税以来，CNY中间价仅 缓慢抬升，稳汇率信号较强，叠加美元下行，未来人民币走势预计将以双向波动为主。 黄金方面，中性偏多。第一，美国滞胀风险上升。第二，关税政策不确定性升高，有利于强化央行购金逻辑。 第三，市场避险情绪仍然偏强。 关税博弈主导预期走势，特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和，不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天，而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非 ...

美国关税政策在全球范围内掀起一波又一波风暴，使宏观经济格局巨变，各类资产亟需破局之道。 彭博中国市场快评系列活动推出 关税专题网络研讨会 （共两期），彭博首席经济学家及业内专家 将围绕关税相关热点议题，向大家分享最新研究成果与洞见，助您在复杂多变的宏观环境中保持高 瞻视角，破局远航！ 关税系列主题第二期 展望美国经济，聚焦中国股票与消费市场 活动时间 第一期： (已结束) 2025年4月17日（星期四）| 16:30 - 17:15 第二期： 2025年4月24日（星期四）| 16:30 - 17:15 主要议题 主讲嘉宾 Anna Wong 彭博美国首席经济学家 美国宏观经济展望 中美不确定性与A股市场 悬而未决的关税对中国消费市场的影响 Marvin Chen 彭博行业研究资深股票策略师 林爱娜 彭博行业研究亚太地区主管，亚太消费及科技行业高级分析师 扫码立即报名 * 报名需要时间审核，敬请耐心等待。审核通过将在微信收到报名成功提醒，活动开始前将会收到具体参会提醒，请注意查收！ * 彭博Bloomberg保留活动的最终解释权。 ...

A股开盘，上证指数涨0.42%，深证成指涨1.23%，创业板指涨1.44%。 ...

Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on April 14, 2025, at 10 AM to discuss the first quarter economic data [1] - Wang Lingjun, Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs, will introduce the import and export situation for the first quarter of 2025 and answer questions from reporters [1]