Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report by Goldman Sachs strategist Dominic Wilson highlights the deteriorating labor market as a key factor prompting the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [3][4] - Wilson predicts that if a full recession occurs, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4600 points, high-yield bond spreads may exceed 600 basis points, and short-term yields could fall below 3% [3][4] - The current economic environment is characterized by high uncertainty in policy direction, low consumer and business confidence, and potential contraction in real income growth, keeping the U.S. economy under the shadow of recession [3][4] Group 2 - The recent market volatility has exposed vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system, including the U.S. Treasury market, which may face renewed risks [4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation and changes in labor market hiring behavior will take time to manifest, suggesting that the U.S. economy will remain in a "recession watch" period for at least the next two to three months [4] - Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have emphasized the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations while maintaining a cautious approach to policy decisions [4][5] Group 3 - Fed Vice Chairman Waller's views align with those of Goldman Sachs, indicating that the key factors prompting rapid Fed action include potential job losses and rising unemployment rates due to tariffs [5] - Waller suggests that tariffs may only produce a one-time price effect, and the critical issue is recognizing this as a temporary phenomenon [5] - The ongoing dynamics between unemployment rates, Fed monetary policy, and trade policy could lead to significant shifts in the global economic landscape [6]

| United States | South | Singapore | Malaysia | | | Mexico | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日本对美出口占比最高 | Korea 1 0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | | | | Germany | | | Canada | | | | | 2.6% | | | | | | | Hong ... | India | 1.7% | 1796 | 17% | 15% | | | | 2.6% | France | | | | | China | 5.4% | Vietnam | | | | | | | Thailand | 2.6% | | | | | | 9% | | Australia | 1 4 3 3 13 9 | | | | | | 4.0% | 2.4% | 088% | | | | | | Countriae Continante | | | | | | ▲ATFX图 ▲ATFX图 本周五20:30，美国劳工部劳动统计局将公布4月非 ...

西班牙第一季度失业率11.36%，前值10.61%。 ...

智通财经4月28日电，西班牙第一季度失业率为11.36%，前值10.61%。 ...

周四，美联储颇具影响力的票委、理事沃勒表示，如果特朗普政府重新实施激进的关税政策，企业可能会开始裁员，而如果失业率显著上升，他将支持降息： 如果大幅关税特别是重新实施的话，未来你可能会看到更多裁员，失业率小幅上升，我不会感到意外。 如果我看到失业率出现足够大的变动，让我认为情况正在恶化，并且经济增长陷入停滞，那么我就会准备降息。 一旦我看到劳动力市场出现严重恶化，我会预计会有更多、更快的降息。 特朗普于4月2日宣布对多个国家实施对等关税，但随后对部分国家暂停了90天，以进行谈判。尽管如此，特朗普仍然实施了10%的全球基础关税。 在谈及美联储何时可能因数据变化而调整政策时，沃勒表示， 他不认为关税在7月之前会对美国经济产生重大影响， 他预计将在下半年对关税的影响有更好的 认识： 我认为在接下来的几个月里，在七月之前，你不会在实际数据中看到足够多的变化。 不过沃勒预计，之后如果高关税再次实施，美国失业率可能会上升，而且是迅速上升。 与此同时， 沃勒重申，他认为关税带来的通胀影响可能是暂时性的，强烈认为关税将带来一次性的价格效应： 我愿意忽视关税带来的价格上涨效应。我不会对我认为是由关税引起的通胀上升过度反应。但如 ...

美联储理事沃勒：我不排除未来会出现更多裁员和更高的失业率的可能性。 ...

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利周二表示，现在要确定美国总统特朗普的关税政策以及其对通胀和经济 的预期影响，进而判断短期借贷成本需要如何调整，还为时尚早。这一观点得到了他的同事们的广泛认 同，很可能会使美联储在两周后的利率设定会议上维持利率不变。 这位明尼阿波利斯联储主席说，他将密切关注劳动力市场数据，看看目前的不确定性是否有迹象导致企 业缩减规模并裁员。他说，目前还没有迹象表明大规模裁员。 当被问及特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求降息的问题时，卡什卡利表示，货币政策的独立性是美国 经济成功的"基石"。他反驳了特朗普及其政府其他官员的说法，即美联储是出于政治原因而做出政策决 定。 卡什卡利指出，在民主党总统奥巴马的第二个任期以及特朗普的第一个任期内，他支持较为宽松的货币 政策；在拜登任期内，他变得较为鹰派；而现在在政策立场上 "可能处于中间派"。 "我从鸽派转变为鹰派，再转变为温和派，这是因为政治原因吗？不是，这是因为经济环境在变化，数 据也在变化。"他说。 卡什卡利在华盛顿举行的美国商会全球峰会上表示："现在就判断利率的走势将会如何还为时过早。" 他表示，虽然仅关税本身不太可能让通胀再次加速，这种说法是"合乎逻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari, stated that it is currently unclear how to adjust short-term borrowing costs in response to President Trump's tariffs and their anticipated effects on inflation and the economy [1] Group 1: Tariffs and Inflation - Kashkari indicated that while tariffs themselves may not accelerate inflation, the recent high inflation levels cannot be ignored by the Federal Reserve [1] - He emphasized that the combination of tariffs and high inflation could exert "pressure" on the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Economic Growth - The potential impact of tariffs is likely to slow down economic growth, according to Kashkari [1] - He pointed out that the Federal Reserve faces challenges in addressing both rising inflation and increasing unemployment simultaneously [1]

Group 1: Economic Performance in Guangdong - In the first quarter of 2025, Guangdong's GDP reached 33,525.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The primary industry added value was 934.45 billion yuan, growing by 3.3%; the secondary industry added value was 12,002.53 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%; and the tertiary industry added value was 20,588.53 billion yuan, growing by 4.3% [1] - The service sector emerged as the main growth engine, indicating a robust economic recovery [1] Group 2: Trade Performance in Shenzhen - In March 2025, Shenzhen's total import and export value reached 3,870.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, outpacing the national growth rate by 6.3 percentage points [2] - Exports amounted to 2,185.3 billion yuan, growing by 8.8%, while imports were 1,685.2 billion yuan, growing by 17.2% [2] - The strong performance in trade reflects Shenzhen's internal growth momentum and resilience against risks [2] Group 3: Employment Situation in Hong Kong - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong for the first quarter of 2025 was 3.2%, unchanged from the previous period, with an underemployment rate of 1.1% [3] - Total employment reached 3.6927 million, a decrease of approximately 16,800 from the previous period, while the total labor force decreased by about 5,800 to 3.8155 million [3] - Economic growth in mainland China and government stimulus measures are expected to support labor demand despite external uncertainties [3] Group 4: Financial Support for SMEs in Macau - The Macau government launched a loan interest subsidy plan for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), effective from April 22, 2025, to April 22, 2026 [4] - Eligible SMEs can apply for interest subsidies on loans up to 5 million Macau patacas, with a maximum subsidy period of three years and an interest rate cap of 4% [4] - This initiative aims to reduce financing costs and alleviate cash flow pressures for SMEs, supporting their stable operations [4] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - On April 22, 2025, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9,870.05 points, down by 0.36% [5] - Notable gainers included Meichen Technology, with a price of 1.66 yuan and a rise of 20.29%, and Xincheng Technology, with a price of 16.66 yuan and a rise of 20.03% [6] - Significant decliners included *ST Jiyuan, with a price of 0.24 yuan and a drop of 20.00% [6]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate for January to March 2025, seasonally adjusted, remains at 3.2%, unchanged from December 2024 to February 2025 [1][2] - The underemployment rate also remains stable at 1.1% during the same period [1][2] - Total employment decreased from 3,709,500 in December 2024 to 3,692,700 in January to March 2025, a reduction of approximately 16,800 [1][2] Group 2 - The total labor force declined from 3,821,300 to 3,815,500, a decrease of about 5,800 [1][2] - The number of unemployed individuals increased from 111,700 to 122,800, an increase of approximately 11,100 [1][2] - The number of underemployed individuals rose from 40,700 to 42,700, an increase of about 2,000 [1][2] Group 3 - Unemployment rates varied across industries, with notable increases in the information and communications sector, social work activities, professional and business services (excluding cleaning services), and construction [1][2] - Conversely, the transportation and insurance sectors experienced declines in unemployment rates [2] - The government anticipates that external uncertainties due to trade tensions may affect hiring intentions in some industries, while domestic economic growth supported by government measures is expected to bolster labor demand [2]