Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between the United States and Japan have been highlighted, particularly regarding Japan's refusal to import U.S. rice despite a domestic shortage, indicating a shift in Japan's stance towards the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: Trade Relations - Trump has adopted a protectionist approach, focusing on tariffs and pressuring trade partners, including Japan, particularly in the automotive and rice sectors [3] - Japan's rice imports from the U.S. are projected to be only $330 million in 2024, a negligible amount compared to the overall trade volume between the two countries [3] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida emphasized that Japan will not compromise its agricultural interests in trade negotiations with the U.S. [3][5] Group 2: Agricultural Significance - Agriculture, while a small part of Japan's GDP, holds strategic importance due to its role in employment and political influence, particularly among rural voters [5] - Japan's low food self-sufficiency rate makes it vulnerable to global supply disruptions, prompting the government to heavily subsidize domestic agriculture [5] Group 3: Diplomatic Dynamics - Recent improvements in Sino-Japanese relations provide Japan with leverage in negotiations with the U.S., as evidenced by the 20 agreements reached during Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Japan [5] - Japan is actively seeking to diversify its economic partnerships beyond the U.S., reducing reliance on American markets and mitigating the impact of U.S. trade policies [7] - Japan's firm stance in trade negotiations signals a potential shift towards a more independent and multifaceted foreign policy [7]

理性投资，风险自担 核心观点 基本面：美国关税谈判大限将至，但与多数国家谈判陷入僵局，美国经济政策不确定性指数长期持续处于历史高位，美国 的逆全球化和贸易保护主义行为对全球经济和金融市场带来巨大冲击，制造业、出口型企业股票和大宗商品等资产收益受损 ，在当前全球经济与地缘政治不稳定的环境下，贵金属作为一项战略性资产具备良好的抵御风险能力，贵金属等避险资产需 求上升，全球央行加仓黄金意愿更加强烈。 资金面：上周COMEX黄金和白银库存有所回落；全球黄金储备不断延续走高，近4 3 %的央行计划在未来一年内 增加自身黄金储备；全球主要白银ETF资金加速流入，白银较黄金资金关注度上升；上周对冲基金多头在黄金 上增持力度放缓。 策略：沪金价格长期看多，短期延续高位震荡，中期建议持多；沪银短期维持高位震荡，中期建议持多或急跌 震荡区间下沿做多。 风险提示：地缘政治冲突，美国货币与财政政策，关税贸易风险 目 录 1 行情回顾 2 宏观面：关注美国关税政策扰动 3 持仓分析：对冲基金更关注白银机会 4 其他要素 行情回顾 重点指标涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 重点数据指标 | 最新 | 一 期 | 上 一 | 期 | 周变化 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic dialogue between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and EU's High Representative Josep Borrell, signaling important developments in China-EU relations [1][3] - Merkel's call for EU unity against US tariff threats emphasizes the need for Europe to adopt an independent policy towards China, reflecting a shift in the EU's approach to its relationship with China [3][5] - The economic ties between China and the EU are strong, with daily trade exceeding $2.7 billion, positioning China as the EU's second-largest trading partner [3][5] Group 2 - The EU's internal policy divisions regarding China are becoming more pronounced, with the European Commission under Ursula von der Leyen favoring a tougher stance, while Germany's position is crucial in shaping the overall EU approach [3][5] - Merkel's statements indicate a potential correction in the EU's China policy, advocating for a strategy based on European interests rather than blind alignment with US pressures [3][5] - The article discusses the growing awareness in Europe regarding strategic autonomy, with calls for reduced reliance on US military protection and a more independent stance in international affairs [5][7] Group 3 - The article outlines the broad cooperation potential between China and the EU in global governance areas such as climate change and biodiversity, emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts [5][7] - The complexities of the EU's decision-making process, influenced by the diverse interests of its 27 member states, pose challenges for a unified China strategy [7] - The dialogue between Wang Yi and Merkel's remarks suggest a pivotal moment for China-EU relations, with an emphasis on pragmatic cooperation and the necessity for enhanced communication to address global challenges [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the nickel market was characterized by a bearish fundamental outlook, with frequent policy disturbances leading to periodic price rebounds. The macro - economic expectations were volatile, but nickel prices were largely desensitized. - In the second half, the U.S. economic outlook remains unclear with stagflation risks. Domestically, policies focus on supply, lacking determination to improve consumption. In the industry, Indonesia and the Philippines aim to control nickel mines, and the nickel ore market may not ease this year. The nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak market reality and strong cost pressure. - It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will trade between 115,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, and LME nickel will fluctuate between 14,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [3][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - Half Review - In the first half of 2025, the bearish fundamental logic prevailed. Overseas policy disturbances were frequent, such as the Philippines' plan to ban nickel ore exports and Indonesia's series of policies on mineral resources. Trump's global tariff policy in April led to a spread of pessimistic expectations. In June, the cancellation of the Philippines' nickel ore export ban and Indonesia's increase in RKAB nickel ore approvals, along with weak consumption, accelerated the decline of nickel prices [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 United States - In the first half, the U.S. faced stagflation risks. The real GDP in Q1 was - 0.5%, affected by increased imports and weakened personal consumption. Inflation showed a complex trend, with the CPI rising slightly in May. Fiscal support boosted residents' consumption, but the "Big and Beautiful" bill may impact residents' income. The tariff policy was implemented, and trade negotiations were slow [13][14][15]. - In the second half, tariffs and crude oil may support high inflation, while weak consumption may drag down economic growth [16][17]. 2.2 China - In the first half, the domestic labor market improved, with the unemployment rate decreasing and fiscal personal income tax increasing. Social consumption showed some recovery, but there was a lack of strong autonomous consumption. Corporate profits improved with structural differentiation, and private - sector industrial enterprises performed better [18][19]. - In the second half, the situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to policy directions [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Policy Disturbances and Nickel Ore Shortage - In the first half, overseas nickel ore resources were scarce. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore rose by 23.53%. The Philippines attempted to ban nickel ore exports, and Indonesia increased policy intervention. China's nickel ore imports decreased from January to May, and port inventories were lower than seasonal levels [23][24][25]. 3.2 Sufficient Supply and Resource Flow to LME - In the first half, domestic pure - nickel production increased significantly, with new production capacity coming online. Pure - nickel imports mainly came from Russia and South Africa, and exports increased, with resources flowing to the LME. The proportion of LME Asian warehouse resources increased [27][28]. 3.3 Nickel Iron: First Rise then Fall with High Cost Pressure - In the first half, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants first rose then fell. China's nickel - iron imports mainly came from Indonesia. In the second half, new production capacity will be put into operation, but demand may remain weak, and prices may oscillate at a low level [30][31]. 3.4 Stable Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price with Limited Consumption Growth - In the first half, domestic sulfuric acid nickel production decreased slightly, and imports increased slightly. The price first rose then fell. In the second half, consumption may not improve significantly due to weak demand expectations [33]. 3.5 Low - Level Stainless Steel Consumption and Slow De - stocking - In the first half, stainless - steel prices fluctuated with the real - estate market. Production increased, but inventory remained high. In the second half, the fundamental situation may remain weak, and trade policies may provide short - term support [35][36]. 3.6 Doubtful Terminal Consumption Resilience and Policy - Driven Car - Manufacturer Production Cut - In the first half, domestic new - energy vehicle production and sales increased, mainly driven by subsidy policies. In the second half, domestic demand may be affected by the end of subsidies and corporate cash - flow pressure. Overseas, the growth of new - energy vehicle consumption in Europe and the U.S. may slow down [39][40][41]. 3.7 Excess Resources Flow Outward, and Domestic Inventory Remains Stable - In the first half, pure - nickel inventory first increased then decreased, with resources flowing to the LME. In the second half, due to narrowed export profits, domestic inventory may increase [43][44]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, keeping pure - nickel supply at a relatively high level (neutral). - Demand: The real - estate market continues to bottom out, and new - energy consumption lacks independent driving force, resulting in limited demand growth (neutral). - Cost: Nickel ore shortage due to policy pressure provides strong cost support (bullish). - Macroeconomics: The U.S. stagflation expectation persists, and domestic deflation pressure may continue (bearish). Overall, the nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak reality and strong cost [45].

Group 1 - Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama suggested that China should collaborate with Japan and South Korea to counteract U.S. pressure, highlighting the complexities of international relations among China, the U.S., and Japan [1] - The U.S. has escalated its trade protectionist policies under Trump, imposing tariffs on multiple countries, leading to stalled negotiations with many trade partners [1][3] - The U.S. trade war has begun to negatively impact its own economy, with rising national debt and increased consumer prices, affecting the cost of living for American citizens [3] Group 2 - Japan's economy, heavily reliant on exports, faces significant challenges due to potential U.S. tariffs on automobiles and parts, which could severely impact its automotive industry [4] - Japan is reassessing its trade relationship with the U.S. and exploring ways to reduce dependency on U.S. exports by seeking new markets and enhancing economic cooperation with other regions [4][9] - South Korea is also struggling in trade negotiations with the U.S., facing difficulties due to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, which threaten its export competitiveness [5][6] Group 3 - The potential for cooperation among China, Japan, and South Korea is significant, given their complementary economic strengths in manufacturing, semiconductors, and precision instruments [9] - However, political obstacles exist, particularly Japan's alignment with U.S. positions on sensitive issues, which complicates trilateral cooperation [9][11] - Strengthening cooperation among the three nations could enhance regional economic resilience and promote trade liberalization, countering the pressures from U.S. tariffs [9][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating tensions between China and the EU, particularly regarding trade disputes and protective measures [1][2][5] - China initiated an anti-dumping investigation against EU-origin brandy, citing a dumping margin of 27.7%-34.9%, and imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty starting July 5 [1][6] - The EU's decision to impose additional tariffs of up to 38.1% on Chinese electric vehicles is seen as a significant point of contention, reflecting a broader trend of trade protectionism from the EU [1][4][15] Group 2 - The French Finance Minister's comments indicate a growing sentiment among some European politicians that trade with China could harm European interests, which may hinder healthy bilateral relations [2][4] - The EU's unilateral imposition of anti-dumping duties is viewed as a double standard, undermining fair competition principles and reflecting anxiety over China's industrial advancements [5][6] - China's response to the EU's trade measures, including the anti-dumping investigation and restrictions on medical devices, demonstrates its commitment to defending its trade rights while advocating for fair and open trade practices [6][15] Group 3 - The complex dynamics of China-EU relations provide both challenges and opportunities for diplomatic engagement, as highlighted by recent high-level dialogues between Chinese officials and EU leaders [10][12] - Misinterpretations and misinformation in media regarding China-EU negotiations can disrupt the communication process and hinder mutual understanding [10][12] - The articles suggest that cooperation between China and the EU is essential for maintaining global economic stability and countering unilateralism, particularly in the context of U.S. trade policies [15]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement its first consecutive interest rate cut in six years, lowering the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting on July 8 [1] - The cumulative reduction in the current easing cycle will reach 75 basis points, supported by domestic economic data indicating low consumer confidence and weak household spending [1] - The market anticipates further rate cuts later in the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 3.1%, with 3.35% seen as a critical point for pausing policy to assess the impact of previous easing measures [4] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting is significant as it marks the first participation of new Treasurer Jenny Wilkinson in interest rate decisions, highlighting female leadership in Australia's core economic institutions [7] - The RBA's dovish stance aligns with recent rate cuts from central banks in Europe, Canada, and the UK, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's plans to maintain its policy until mid-2025 [7] - Market participants will closely monitor RBA Governor Michele Bullock's statements regarding future policy direction to gauge the pace and extent of the easing cycle [7]

Group 1 - The 17th BRICS summit commenced on July 6 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, marking the first summit after the inclusion of new members Indonesia and 10 partner countries, focusing on strengthening cooperation among the Global South and promoting inclusive and sustainable governance [1][3] - The summit will address six key areas: global health and wellness, trade investment and finance, climate change response, artificial intelligence governance, reform of the global security system, and the development of the BRICS mechanism itself [1][3] - Brazil, as the rotating chair of BRICS, aims to deepen cooperation with Global South countries and strengthen partnerships in social, economic, and environmental development [4][6] Group 2 - The summit's joint statement is expected to reflect a unified stance on various geopolitical issues, including the criticism of U.S. tariff policies, which are viewed as detrimental to global economic stability [5][7] - BRICS countries are advocating for reforms in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), seeking to redistribute voting rights and end the long-standing European dominance in management [7][8] - An important agenda item is the promotion of trade among member countries using a common currency for settlement, aimed at reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar [8][9]

重点关注：美国所谓"对等关税"暂停期结束、金砖国家领导人第十七次会晤、美联储公布货币政策会议纪要、中国公布6月CPI、PPI、社融数据。 此外， IEA公布月报、欧元区多国公布6月CPI终值，英国、韩国、泰国、新西兰等国公布利率决议。 7月7日-7月13日当周重磅财经事件一览，以下均为北京时间： 美国"对等关税"暂停期结束，特朗普：将于8月1日开始支付新关税 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布，开征所谓"对等关税"，随后引发全球市场震荡。在多方压力下，特朗普政府又在4月9日宣布，暂缓对部分贸易伙 伴征收高额"对等关税"90天。但维持10%的"基准关税"，同时威胁美贸易伙伴，需在7月8日前完成与美谈判。 随着截止日期的临近，据环球时报5日报道，美国总统特朗普表示， 美政府7月4日起将向尚未达成贸易协议的国家发出新关税税率的通知，税率区间为10%至 70%，并计划从8月1日起正式实施。 这一税率上限（70%）远高于其4月份宣布的50%，市场普遍担忧此举将加剧美国经济的通胀风险，并可能引发新一轮的 资产抛售。 7月5日周五，特朗普在空军一号上向媒体确认，他已签署了将发往"大概12个"国家的关税信函，并计划于周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French Finance Minister Eric Lombard emphasizes the need for Europe to strengthen tariff barriers against Chinese imports to protect its industrial economy, highlighting the risk of China's dominance in global market shares across various industries [1][3]. Group 1: Government Actions and Statements - Lombard states that Europe must take action across all industrial sectors to prevent China's production capacity, which exceeds 50% of the global market share in many industries, from destroying European industry [1]. - The European response has already included actions against the steel and automotive sectors, but Lombard calls for a revision of rules to allow broader measures against imports from China [1]. - French Industry Minister Marc Ferracci expresses concern that Chinese manufacturing, previously directed towards the U.S., is now shifting to Europe, creating a sensitive and dangerous situation for European industries [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Tensions - The recent announcement by China to impose anti-dumping duties on European brandy, while exempting major cognac producers that agree to set minimum price levels, is a direct response to the EU's decision to impose tariffs of up to 45% on domestic electric vehicles by 2024 [1]. - Reports indicate that China plans to shorten a planned two-day summit with EU leaders to one day, reflecting escalating tensions between Europe and Beijing [1]. - A researcher from the Jacques Delors Institute notes that Europe aims to rebuild its manufacturing sector and cannot afford the shock from a large influx of Chinese imports [3].