当地时间1月28日，美联储在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 3.5%至3.75%不变。这一决定符合市场预期，也是自2025年9月以来，连续3次降息后首次按下暂停键。 在全球经济复苏缓慢、通胀压力挥之不去的背景下，此次暂停既是对前期宽松政策效果的战略观望，也 是面对复杂经济形势的审慎选择。 历史反复证明，一旦决策为选情所左右，往往容易催生政策短视，为长期经济失衡埋下伏笔。美国总统 特朗普已高调预告，将尽快宣布下一任美联储主席人选，美联储理事沃勒因在近几次会议上支持降息而 获提名，这被市场解读为未来政策可能更贴近白宫诉求的信号。若独立性受损，美联储或被迫在通胀未 受控的前提下过早宽松，重蹈20世纪70年代滞涨覆辙。 美联储之所以选择"按兵不动"，最直接的原因是经济数据没有给出足够的行动理由。一方面，美国经济 近期呈现出较强韧性。美国经济分析局（BEA）近日发布更新估算数据显示，2025年三季度，美国实际 国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算增长4.4%，较初值上修0.1个百分点，创下2021年以来最快增速。消 费者支出作为经济增长支柱表现稳健，失业率微降至4.4%，显现企稳迹象。另一方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has decreased significantly, reflecting weakened market demand for gold, with various brands adjusting their prices downward, indicating a lack of confidence in the gold market [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Trends and Price Differentiation - As of January 29, 2026, the international gold price fell to $5,232.5 per ounce, while domestic gold prices dropped to ¥1,175.5 per gram, and gold recycling prices fell to ¥1,155 per gram, indicating reduced demand [1]. - Major brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have lowered their gold prices, with prices ranging from ¥1,612 to ¥1,620 per gram, showing a significant decline in market confidence [1]. - The domestic market shows a clear price differentiation, with bank investment gold bars priced close to raw material prices, while brand gold jewelry includes high processing fees and premiums, leading to a price difference of ¥400-450 per gram [2]. Group 2: Short-term Correction Causes and Technical Adjustments - The recent price correction is attributed to technical adjustments and a decline in market sentiment, with gold prices having risen over 60% in less than a year, leading to profit-taking [3]. - The market is experiencing a "high fever retreat" rather than a trend reversal, with international gold prices influenced by dollar liquidity and futures speculation, while domestic physical gold remains supported by consumer demand and central bank backing [3]. Group 3: Medium to Long-term Support Factors - Central bank gold purchases are a primary support factor, with global central bank purchases expected to reach a record high of 1,136 tons by 2025, and the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings to 7,415 million ounces [4]. - Geopolitical risks and the decline in dollar credibility provide additional support, as uncertainties in global politics drive a shift towards "de-dollarization" and increased gold holdings by European institutions [4]. - The Federal Reserve's policy shift, including expectations for interest rate cuts and liquidity support through QE-Lite, is expected to create upward pressure on gold prices [4]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Changes - The traditional "60/40" stock-bond portfolio is failing in the face of inflation and volatility, leading asset management firms to increase gold allocations to over 8%, with individual investors also recognizing gold as a core asset [5]. Group 5: Price Forecast and Key Observations - Short-term gold prices may remain volatile, with a potential technical correction of 5%, while international gold prices could test the $4,600-$4,800 per ounce range [6]. - In the medium term, if geopolitical risks escalate and the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, gold prices may aim to surpass $5,200 per ounce, with predictions from UBS and JPMorgan suggesting prices could reach $5,200 and $5,500 respectively [6].

2026年1月底，全球金融市场经历了一场地震。 美元指数暴跌，一度触及96附近，创下多年新低 。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，黄金价格如同坐上了火箭，在1 月29日首次突破每盎司5400美元大关，单日涨幅超过6% 。 白银也不甘示弱，价格冲上116美元以上 。 这场动荡的直接导火索，出现在1月下旬的一次采访 中。 当前总统唐纳德·特朗普被问及是否担心美元贬值时，他轻松地表示"不，我觉得很好"，并补充说可以让美元"像悠悠球一样上上下下" 。 这番"悠悠球 论"瞬间点燃了市场恐慌情绪，美元遭到猛烈抛售 。 然而，特朗普的言论只是一根火柴，真正的燃料早已备好。 就在他讲话的前一天，1月27日，印度总理莫迪和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩共同宣布，双方达成 了备受期待的自由贸易协定 。 这项被称为"所有协议之母"的协定，谈判历时近20年，将创建一个覆盖20亿人口、占全球GDP四分之一的巨大市场 。 欧盟将 分阶段取消对90%的印度商品关税，印度则向欧盟汽车、葡萄酒等产品大幅降低市场准入壁垒 。 地缘政治风险进一步放大了市场的避险需求。 2025年，美国发起大规模关税战，加剧了全球贸易紧张局势 。 中东局势持续紧张，大国博弈频繁 。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts, the impact on the dollar-centric system, and uncertainties from the Trump 2.0 policies, has made gold the dominant asset in financial markets, with prices reaching unprecedented levels [1][25]. Market Dynamics - On January 29, international gold prices approached $5,600 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 2.23%, marking a year-to-date increase of over 27% [2][1]. - Consumers are flocking to gold stores, with wait times for gold buyback reaching two hours, and many banks reporting shortages of physical gold [11][10]. Consumer Behavior - The traditional investment philosophy of "buying high" has attracted many investors, leading to increased foot traffic in gold stores, particularly in Beijing and Shenzhen [3][5]. - In Beijing's flagship gold store, the price of investment gold reached 1,240.90 yuan per gram, while gold jewelry prices surged to 1,622 yuan per gram [3][5]. Supply Chain Impact - The gold price increase has created a disparity in the gold supply chain, benefiting upstream miners while negatively impacting midstream and downstream businesses [14][15]. - Upstream mining companies like Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold are reporting significant profit increases due to higher gold prices, with net profit forecasts showing growth of 59%-62% [14]. Investment Trends - The gold investment sector is experiencing a boom, with many gold stocks hitting consecutive daily limits, and gold-themed ETFs seeing substantial inflows [18][19]. - As of January 29, several gold ETFs reported transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan, reflecting heightened investor interest [18]. Risk and Strategy - Experts advise against blindly chasing high gold prices, suggesting that investors should consider risk management and asset allocation strategies [27][28]. - The current market environment indicates that while gold serves as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty, its price volatility necessitates a cautious approach to investment [24][28].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts, the impact on the dollar-centric system, and uncertainties from the Trump 2.0 policies, has made gold the dominant asset in financial markets, with prices reaching unprecedented levels [1][24]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - As of January 29, 2026, international gold prices approached $5,600 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 2.23%, marking a year-to-date rise of over 27% [1][3]. - The price of gold in Beijing's flagship stores rose significantly, with investment gold priced at 1,240.90 yuan per gram and gold jewelry at 1,622 yuan per gram [3][5]. - The price at Cai Bai Jewelry increased from 1,550 yuan per gram to 1,650 yuan per gram, a rise of 6.45%, and from 1,342 yuan per gram at the beginning of January, marking a 22.95% increase [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are flocking to gold stores, with wait times for gold buybacks exceeding two hours, indicating a strong demand for both investment and jewelry gold [9][10]. - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, the demand for gold jewelry remains high, particularly among young couples preparing for weddings [8][9]. - Retailers are experiencing a shift in focus from gold jewelry to investment gold, as consumers are less inclined to purchase high-priced jewelry due to rising gold prices [16]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - Many banks are facing shortages of physical gold, with reports of "sold out" statuses and the need for appointments to purchase gold products [10][11]. - The supply constraints are attributed to a structural shortage in the global silver market and increased demand driven by rising gold prices and geopolitical uncertainties [13]. Group 4: Industry Impact - Mining companies are benefiting from the price surge, with companies like Zijin Mining reporting a projected net profit increase of 59%-62% for 2025, driven by higher production and sales prices [14]. - Conversely, midstream and downstream companies, particularly those in jewelry manufacturing, are struggling as rising raw material costs suppress consumer demand [15][16]. - The shift in consumer preference from jewelry to investment gold is altering the dynamics of the gold industry, with retailers adapting their strategies accordingly [16]. Group 5: Investment Trends - Gold-related stocks and ETFs are experiencing significant gains, with multiple gold stocks hitting daily limits and ETFs seeing transaction volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan [17][18]. - Investors are showing heightened interest in gold investment products, with many actively seeking to capitalize on the rising prices [19]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are concerns about potential market corrections, prompting some investors to adopt a cautious approach [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market in 2026 presents both opportunities and challenges, with a notable rise in precious metals and AI-driven investment, while concerns about the weakening dollar and U.S. debt persist [2]. Group 1: China’s Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated that China has achieved its 2025 growth target, indicating a constructive outlook for the economy [2]. - Solomon observed a steady increase in the vitality of the Chinese market, with global investors showing renewed interest [3]. - The Chinese economy is characterized as one of the most important globally, benefiting from technological innovation and a strong manufacturing and export base [15]. Group 2: Capital Market Developments - The recovery of the Chinese capital market has created more business opportunities for foreign institutions, with a notable increase in IPO activities, particularly in Hong Kong [4][21]. - International capital inflow into China has increased over the past year, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 [5][18]. - The Hong Kong IPO market saw significant growth in 2025, with 117 new listings and a total fundraising amount of 285.69 billion HKD, marking a substantial increase from 2024 [21]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Solomon emphasized the importance of diversified investment strategies, recommending a balanced global portfolio that includes various asset classes across different markets [13]. - He suggested that younger investors should focus more on stocks for long-term growth, while older investors might prefer a more conservative asset allocation [13]. Group 4: Global Financial Trends - The dollar index has recently fallen to a near four-year low, with fluctuations expected in the short term, but a stabilization in the medium term is anticipated [8][10]. - Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the fundamental position of the dollar as a primary reserve currency remains unchanged [9]. - Gold prices have surged, with predictions for a significant increase by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing demand from global central banks [11].

1月29日，尽管金银价格在触及历史高点后呈现出一定的超买迹象，但Mhmarkets迈汇认为，支撑贵金 属走强的底层逻辑已发生根本性改变。随着美元指数持续走弱，全球投资者的风险偏好正显著从传统信 用资产向硬资产转移。这种情绪的转变并非短期波动，而是对全球金融格局深度调整的直接反馈。 在特朗普政策议程引发的经济波动中，黄金与白银展现出了极强的防御属性。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，当 前白银已强势站上每盎司110美元大关，黄金则在5，300美元附近稳步交投。这一现象背后是"去美元 化"进程的提速以及对联储独立性的担忧。尤其是在2025年美元指数录得近50年来最差年度表现之一 （跌幅达9.4%）后，市场对美元作为主要储备货币的长期地位产生了深刻质疑。进入2026年1月，美元 指数进一步滑落至95.55点的多年低位，这种下行惯性为贵金属提供了充足的上涨动能。 针对近期出现的"抛售美国"情绪，激进的贸易关税政策和诸如购买格陵兰岛等具有高度不可预测性的行 动，正持续扰动全球供应链并加剧通胀预期。当美元购买力下降导致进口成本上升时，黄金作为通胀对 冲工具的吸引力便愈发凸显。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，此外，日本债券市场的剧烈 ...

Core Viewpoint - On January 29, a rare market event occurred where resource-related LOFs, including oil LOFs, experienced a collective surge, leading to multiple products hitting the daily limit up and subsequent announcements of suspension from trading [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - Several LOFs, including E Fund Oil LOF and Harvest Oil LOF, saw significant price increases, with many products reaching the daily limit up of approximately 10% [2][3]. - The WTI crude oil futures price reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025 [5]. Group 2: Fund Suspension and Adjustments - Multiple fund companies announced the suspension of resource-related LOFs starting January 30, citing significant price deviations from net asset values as a warning to investors [6][7]. - The daily purchase limits for certain LOFs were drastically reduced, with the E Fund Oil LOF's limit dropping from 100 yuan to 2 yuan, and other funds adjusting their limits to 10 yuan [5][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Analysts noted that the high premium rates of oil LOFs were driven by tight QDII quotas, low subscription limits, and a surge in investor interest due to the interplay of international oil prices and risk aversion [4][5]. - The combination of rising geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and demand recovery contributed to strong upward momentum in commodity prices, particularly in the oil and precious metals sectors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged significantly, reaching over $5,500 per ounce, leading to a rapid increase in gold-themed ETFs, while investor sentiment remains mixed due to differing institutional outlooks and fears of missing out or buying at a peak [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On January 29, gold prices continued to rise, with spot and futures prices both exceeding $5,500 per ounce [1]. - The gold-themed ETF market has seen substantial growth, with a total scale of 332.99 billion yuan as of January 28, marking a 37.49% increase from the end of the previous year [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Ordinary investors are experiencing anxiety, with many feeling they have missed the opportunity to invest in gold as prices soar [2]. - Existing investors face dilemmas about whether to sell or hold, with some expressing concerns about potential losses if they sell too early [2]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - There is a divergence of opinions among institutions regarding the future of gold prices, but a consensus exists on the long-term positive outlook for gold as a strategic investment [2]. - Analysts from various institutions highlight the importance of gold in uncertain economic times, with some cautioning about potential short-term volatility due to geopolitical events [4][5]. Group 4: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Multiple factors are contributing to the acceleration of gold price increases, including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of monetary easing [4]. - The weakening of the US dollar and rising credit risks among major economies are also supporting gold prices, as investors seek alternatives to dollar-denominated assets [4]. Group 5: Geopolitical Tensions - Geopolitical tensions are acting as a catalyst for rising gold prices, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Some analysts argue that the recent trends in metal prices are not necessarily reflective of fundamental demand but are driven by a weaker dollar and excess liquidity in global markets [5].

Group 1 - Strong demand expectations, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical concerns have led to speculative buying, pushing copper prices to a historic high of over $14,000 per ton [1] - As of the report, LME copper increased by 10.1%, reaching $14,410.5 per ton, marking a new record [1] - Analysts indicate that the recent surge in copper prices is primarily driven by unprecedented investor demand and speculative trading, with significant inflows into copper ETFs [1] Group 2 - The rise in copper prices is also attributed to the spillover effect from the investment in hard assets, with geopolitical tensions driving up gold and silver prices to historical highs [2] - The weakening credibility of the dollar as a safe-haven asset has prompted investors to seek reliable stores of wealth, with gold emerging as a major beneficiary [2] - Gold prices have surged nearly 30% this year, significantly exceeding Wall Street's year-end forecast, leading buyers to consider alternative metals like copper and silver [2] Group 3 - Prices of other base metals such as tin, nickel, zinc, aluminum, and lead have also risen, with the LME index approaching its historical high from 2022 [3] - The increase in metal prices is characterized as "momentum trading driven by new risks," with investors seeking to protect capital amid uncertainties [3] - Mining companies have seen a significant increase in market capitalization, with a total increase of nearly $500 billion over the past month [3] Group 4 - Analysts caution that the influx of funds into the metal market does not necessarily indicate a rise in real economic demand for these materials [4] - Copper inventories monitored by global exchanges are at high levels, particularly in the U.S. market [4] - A Reuters survey indicates that analysts have raised their consensus forecast for 2026 copper prices to above $11,000 per ton, marking the highest annual consensus forecast in history [4]