现在，国际黄金价格也正式突破了5100美元/盎司，白银也涨破100美元/盎司（对应国内市场金价1100/克，白银价格27元/克）。 于是很多人开始觉得，当前的黄金白银价位已经足够高了，后面的空间应该不大了。 其实这种想法很危险。 历史无数次证明，贵金属的行情疯狂起来，是能完全不讲理的。 如果你在极端不理性的行情下去想要给它一个理性的定价，那么你有极大概会出错。 那么，就黄金而已，这波行情怎么看？ 从去年以来，我就一直在跟踪并强力且明确看好贵金属和有色金属，在去年10月底写过《铜资源，仍被低估的长期价值机会》、《为什么说 黄金还能涨上去》以及12月写的《白银飙涨，逼空行情又来了》等文章，但无奈阅读量太低，导致也没有继续写的动力。 但我没想到，黄金白银和铜等的涨幅竟然如此迅猛，一下子涨到了我本来预想在今年底才达到的目标价。 就我觉得，5000美元的黄金，很可能远不是2026年的终点，而是新的起点。 因为这一轮行情的底层驱动力量，前所未有的强大。 主要看三个方面：地缘担忧空前升温、白银逼仓效应、美元体系崩溃。 近期由特朗普一系列极限压迫手段导致的地缘冲突升级，是刺激避险资金"疯狂涌入贵金属"的首要因素。 2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening US dollar, with a notable increase in investment demand supporting the price rise [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Data - The US Q3 GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 4.4%, exceeding expectations of 4.3%, while the core PCE price index remained stable at 2.9% [2]. - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 17 were reported at 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000, indicating a stable labor market [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions have intensified, leading to increased market anxiety and a potential reduction in reserve holdings by various governments [3]. - Several investment institutions, including major pension funds from Denmark and Sweden, have begun to reduce their holdings in US Treasuries, with India's holdings at a five-year low [3]. - Central banks globally continue to purchase gold, with Poland's central bank planning to buy 150 tons of gold, reflecting a shift towards gold as a reserve asset [3]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the acceleration of de-dollarization are expected to support gold prices in the long term, as traditional pillars of stability are being questioned [4]. - The combination of a potential Fed rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and the trend of de-dollarization is likely to bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4].

1月26日，步入 2026 年，全球资本市场正见证黄金史诗级的估值重塑，现货金价在周一强势突破 5000 美元大关并触及 5092.70 美元的新高，标志着避险资产进入了全新的定价时代。EasyMarkets易信观察 到，在 2025 年录得 64% 的惊人涨幅后，黄金在今年短短数周内再度上涨超 17%。这种势头反映了在宏 观经济风险交织的当下，市场对传统避险资产的依赖已达到历史巅峰，不确定性正成为金价上行的最强 助推力。 在分析支撑金价持续走强的核心因素时，EasyMarkets易信表示，地缘博弈与财政政策的变数是关键诱 因。从近期有关贸易关税的摩擦，到市场对美联储独立性受损的隐忧，均促使资金流向硬资产。同时， 各国央行的购金潮依然强劲，高盛预计新兴市场央行每月平均购金量将达到 60 公吨。以波兰为例，其 计划将黄金储备从目前的 550 吨提升至 700 吨。EasyMarkets易信认为，这种全球范围内的去美元化趋 势，正为黄金构建起一个极高且稳固的价格底部。 在投资渠道方面，黄金支持的 ETF 在 2025 年录得创纪录的 890 亿美元资金净流入，折合实物金约 801 吨，创下 2020 年以来的最高 ...

General Information - Report Title: Exchange Rate High-Frequency Tracking [1] - Analysts: Zhang Jing (Qualification No. F3022617, Investment Consultation No. Z0013604), Cheng Xiaoqing (Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635) [2] Report Core View - The recent upward movement of the 10V US Treasury yield and dollar fluctuations are mainly due to three factors: the risk of a stronger US Treasury yield caused by a stable US labor market and strong inflation; the tariff uncertainty from the "Greenland conflict" reigniting concerns about de-dollarization; and the spillover effect of Japanese bond yields. If inflation remains at a relatively high level and the labor market stays in a "low-speed balance," the short-term path of Fed monetary easing may be unsupported, and the dollar index may show a "weak first, then strong" pattern [2] Summary by Related Content Exchange Rate Core Logic - The risk of a stronger US Treasury yield is due to a stable US labor market, especially the unemployment rate, and strong inflation. As the PMI employment index and initial jobless claims have not deteriorated significantly, the market's expectation of this year's interest rate cut has been postponed [2] - The "Greenland conflict" has led to tariff uncertainty, reigniting concerns about de-dollarization. Trump's policies have affected some sovereign investors' asset allocation decisions, and if policy uncertainty persists, it may lead to a broader reevaluation of US Treasury asset allocation by international capital [2] - The spillover effect of Japanese bond yields: On January 19, Kao Ichimasa announced the dissolution of the parliament for early elections and proposed more radical tax cuts, causing market concerns about the deterioration of Japan's fiscal situation. Poor Japanese bond auction results have also deepened concerns about long-term bond demand [2] Economic Index Tracking - The difference between the US and European Citi Economic Surprise Index has rebounded [3] - The difference between the US and European long-term inflation expectations is in a certain range [5] - The difference between the US and European short-term interest rate expectations has increased [7] - The US long-term inflation expectation has risen [7] - The US short-term interest rate expectation has changed [9] - The VIX index has fallen back to a low level [11] - The euro swap basis shows that the pressure on cross-border dollar liquidity is limited [13] - The CFTC net position shows that the dollar maintains a net negative position exposure [17] - The term spread continues to narrow when looking at US Treasury deficit concerns and the dollar trend from the 30 - 10Y spread (in reverse order) and the 10Y swap spread [19] Correlation with Other Assets - There is a certain relationship between the dollar index and the gold-to-copper ratio [24] - There is a relationship between the dollar and copper prices, and copper prices have changed [27] - There is an inverse relationship between the dollar and crude oil prices, and crude oil prices have changed [29] - There is a relationship between the US dollar-yuan central parity rate and the spot exchange rate [35]

特朗普对加拿大"放狠话"，再次验证了"美国优先"政策的不可预测性。任何贸易联盟都可能随时成为目 标，这迫使全球资本重新评估持有美元资产的政治风险。这种单边关税威胁，本质上是将贸易工具武器 化，长远看会侵蚀全球贸易体系和美元信用。在各国政府债台高筑、央行疯狂印钞的背景下，这种举动 加剧了人们对"现有货币体系是否可靠"的深层焦虑。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月26日，周一黄金价格延续了其破纪录的涨势，攀升至历史新高，突破每盎司5000美元，白银价格上 周五突破100美元关口后今早也继续刷新高位。近期发生的区域冲突凸显了地缘政治风险的上升，和全 球财政风险上升的情况下加速寻求贵金属的避险。美国与北约之间因格陵兰岛问题而产生的紧张关系， 在上周缓和之后，特朗普周末表示，如果加拿大与华达成贸易协议并予以推进，他将对加拿大征收 100%的关税。 所以，消息直接继续催化"避险"和"去美元化"这个核心逻辑里。市场情绪已经处于亢奋状态，这种新闻 就是最好的助燃剂，会吸引更多资金涌入黄金和白银，寻求"政治风险隔离"。上周，由于美国政策难以 预测、美欧之间关税紧张局势加剧以及对美联储独立性的质疑再度 ...

事件 周一（1月26日）亚市早盘，黄金市场又一新纪录诞生：现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司的关键整数关 口。眼下，距离现货金首次突破4000美元关口仅过去100余日。 锂：抢出口预期带动锂价上涨。上周碳酸锂价格继续上涨，源于财政部出口退税政策调整，或刺激市 场"抢出口"需求前置，虽下游需求排产下滑，但储能需求预期强劲，退税引发的市场对一季度需求预期 乐观。不过动力电池处于淡季，材料厂检修压制现货采购需求，目前碳酸锂短期需求未证伪，锂价将高 位震荡。 投资策略 总体上建议：贵金属板块坚定持有，铜、铝逢低布局，锡关注供给扰动及AI需求，锂留意出口退税政 策下的高位震荡机会，把握宏观与产业逻辑共振带来的投资窗口。 以上涉及个股仅作为教学案例，不构成投资建议，仅供参考学习。 核心观点 贵金属：白银价格近期持续上涨，美国CPI数据下行至3%以下，26年强降息预期未变，特朗普或暂停对 白银增税，可能缓解短期逼仓。短期，元旦美洲政治事件或激发避险需求，叠加降息交易下ETF资金流 入，看好贵金属表现；长期，去美元化进程不变。 铜：英伟达修正数据打击投机预期，下游出现负反馈，加工市场疲态显现，但因自由港和泰克资源26年 产量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching over $5,100 per ounce, is driven by a growing distrust in the U.S. dollar, highlighted by Germany's call to repatriate 1,236 tons of gold stored in the U.S., valued at nearly $200 billion [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - Gold prices have increased by over 17% since the beginning of the year, reaching a historic high of $5,110 per ounce [1]. - The demand for gold is being fueled by geopolitical tensions and a lack of confidence in the U.S. dollar as a stable asset [4]. Group 2: Germany's Gold Repatriation - Germany holds approximately €450 billion in gold, with 37% (1,236 tons) stored in the U.S. due to Cold War-era agreements [2]. - German officials are expressing concerns about the safety of their gold in the U.S., citing risks associated with U.S. foreign policy and potential asset seizure [2][4]. Group 3: Implications for the Dollar - The situation reflects a broader crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar, with many countries reconsidering their reliance on it as a reserve currency [4]. - The concept of "de-dollarization" is gaining traction, with central banks globally increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against currency risk [6]. Group 4: Future Predictions - The trend of repatriating gold is expected to accelerate, with Germany's actions potentially leading other nations to follow suit [6]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated, but long-term projections suggest continued increases due to ongoing geopolitical instability [7]. - Individuals are advised to diversify their assets, including a small allocation to gold, to mitigate risks associated with dollar-denominated assets [8].

Group 1: Global Macro Strategy - The geopolitical tensions are escalating, with the probability of U.S. military strikes against Iran reaching 62% in Q1 [2] - U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded to 4.2-4.3%, with a reasonable expectation of less than two rate cuts this year [2] - The U.S. dollar is under pressure due to de-dollarization trends and interventions in the yen, but the U.S. economy shows resilience, supporting a long-term view of the dollar [2] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate moderately, supported by narrowing interest rate differentials and stable demand for currency exchange [3] - Gold prices are anticipated to continue rising, potentially challenging $5,500, driven by ongoing Fed rate cuts and geopolitical conflicts [3] Group 3: Domestic Macro Strategy - In terms of domestic demand, housing transaction prices are performing better than volumes, with a 38.6% year-on-year decline in new home transactions [5] - Export performance remains resilient, with container throughput increasing by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating strong demand for machinery and automotive products [7] - The government is advancing the construction of a unified national market, with new regulations aimed at reducing "involution" in government procurement [8] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to experience narrow fluctuations, with 10Y Treasury yields projected to range between 1.8% and 1.95% [9] - Recent liquidity conditions are favorable, with the central bank indicating room for rate cuts, suggesting potential opportunities in the bond market [9] Group 5: Equity Market Performance - The A-share market saw a 0.83% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, with a structural slow bull market driven by improving fundamentals and AI trends [10] - The Hong Kong stock market underperformed compared to A-shares, influenced by geopolitical tensions and lower liquidity [10]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have historically surpassed $5,000 per ounce, reaching $5,100, with a rise of over 2%, significantly boosting related ETFs [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Silver also broke the $100 mark prior to gold surpassing $5,000 [3] - The silver market is experiencing a textbook short squeeze, with extreme positioning in the COMEX futures market, where commercial short positions reached approximately 90,000 contracts and speculative net long positions exceeded 25,000 contracts [7] - Physical delivery constraints are evident, with global deliverable silver inventories at a ten-year low, and record monthly delivery volumes expected in 2026 [7][9] - The market is witnessing a "spot premium," indicating a clear signal of physical shortages [7] - Major Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan, have shifted from being significant shorts to net longs, marking a critical phase in the squeeze [7] - Silver prices have surged over 40% since early 2026, outpacing gold's gains [7] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Silver has faced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with the expected shortfall in 2026 projected to reach approximately 7,000 tons [9] - The demand for silver is driven by sectors such as photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles, alongside government policies recognizing silver as a critical mineral [9] - Approximately 70% of silver production comes as a byproduct of mining for other metals, limiting supply flexibility [9] Group 3: Macro-Economic Influences - The rising gold and silver prices are underpinned by macroeconomic narratives, including hedging against dollar credit risk, geopolitical risks, and inflation [13][14] - Significant net inflows into gold ETFs reached $34.7 billion in 2025, a 220% increase from 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions [15] - Central banks globally purchased a record 1,287 tons of gold in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of purchases exceeding 1,000 tons [19] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Major investment banks have raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 12-month target from $4,800 to $5,500, citing geopolitical risk premiums and sustained central bank demand [23] - Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have also revised their forecasts upward, indicating a strong consensus on bullish sentiment in the gold market [23] - The overall market consensus suggests that the gold bull market is driven not only by economic growth or inflation but also by collective distrust in the stability of the current international political and economic order [24] Group 5: Investment Vehicles - Gold ETFs, such as 华夏 (518850) and 黄金股ETF (159562), are highlighted as cost-effective investment tools with low fees of 0.2%, significantly lower than the market average [27]

Group 1 - The global financial market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift, moving from a dollar liquidity-dominated environment to a multi-faceted, real asset-driven era due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties and the physical transformation of the AI industry [1][3]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with a shift in capital flows from U.S. tech stocks to Asian manufacturing and commodities, reflecting a market preference for companies capable of monetizing AI technology in practical applications [3][4]. - The demand for physical assets, particularly in hardware, energy, and raw materials, is rising as investors pivot from U.S. software companies to emerging market tech firms and resource suppliers [3][4]. Group 2 - Gold and silver markets are experiencing strong upward trends, with gold prices surpassing $4,800 and silver prices exceeding $90 per ounce, driven by central bank balance sheet restructuring and a long-term shift in global economic dynamics [4][6]. - The gold-silver ratio has significantly narrowed to 51.3, indicating a historical correction where silver is outperforming gold, reflecting a shift in market risk appetite towards higher beta assets [6]. - Industrial demand for silver is projected to exceed 65%, driven by AI and green energy needs, further supporting silver's price increase [6]. Group 3 - Copper prices have surpassed $6 per pound, with expectations of reaching $7 per pound due to strong demand from AI data centers and limited supply chain flexibility in copper mining [7]. - The Asian stock markets are benefiting from capital flows as investors seek lower valuations compared to U.S. tech stocks, with A-shares and H-shares presenting attractive opportunities [8]. - The offshore RMB is expected to appreciate by 3%-4% against the dollar in 2026, supported by increased international trade using RMB and a favorable economic structure [9][10]. Group 4 - The Australian and New Zealand dollars are positioned to benefit from strong commodity prices and hawkish central bank policies, contrasting with the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential dovish stance [9][10].