美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特：对（非农）就业数据质量表示质疑。劳工统计局数据需经过审批 和现代化改进。货币政策必须完全独立。目前美联储的独立性存在争议。目前没有彻底改革美联储的计 划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential influence of former President Trump on the Federal Reserve's leadership and monetary policy, highlighting concerns about the independence of the Fed and the implications for the U.S. dollar's credibility in global markets [3][14]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump has proposed three candidates—Hassett, Waller, and Walsh—to replace Powell, indicating a desire for immediate changes despite Powell's remaining term of over eight months [3]. - Hassett is seen as a loyalist to Trump, raising concerns about the potential loss of the Fed's independence and the impact on the dollar's credibility, which currently holds a 58% share of global foreign exchange reserves [5]. - Waller, a current Fed governor, has expressed a desire for rate cuts, but his academic background suggests a more consistent approach to monetary policy, making him a more reliable choice than Hassett [5][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - The market has reacted swiftly, with a 99.4% probability of a rate cut in September, raising questions about the extent of the cut [9]. - The potential for a 25 or 50 basis point cut is debated, with Hassett likely favoring a larger cut, while Waller may prefer a more cautious approach [10]. - Despite the pressure to cut rates to alleviate debt burdens, inflation remains a concern, with the July CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, still above the 2% target [10][12]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The article suggests that hasty rate cuts could lead to rising prices for essentials like oil and food, increasing financial pressure on consumers [12]. - The reluctance of Treasury Secretary Basent to take on the role of Fed Chair indicates the precarious nature of the position amid political pressures [12]. - The overarching concern is whether the Fed will become a tool of the White House, potentially undermining the dollar's global pricing power and leading to a rapid outflow of capital from U.S. Treasuries [14].

Core Viewpoint - Recent surges in overseas ultra-long bond yields are attributed to increasing concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and a general relaxation of fiscal discipline among major developed economies during the summer earnings season. This shift in the marginal pricing power of long-term bonds is amplifying market reactions to uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The combination of high interest rates and a weak dollar is expected to benefit risk assets like A-shares and globally priced commodities [2]. - The recent rise in bond yields is driven by two main factors: heightened concerns over political interference in the Federal Reserve and a general loosening of fiscal discipline in major developed economies, prompting investors to reassess fiscal responsibility [2][3]. - The traditional holders of long-term bonds, such as central banks and insurance companies, are systematically reducing their holdings, leading to a shift towards private investors who are more sensitive to price changes and demand higher risk premiums [2]. Group 2: Asset Class Analysis - Historical data indicates that the rare combination of a weak dollar and high U.S. bond yields tends to favor value/cyclical stocks and commodities [3]. - In the short term, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to stabilize between 3.95% and 4.35%, with the dollar index projected to range between 95 and 99 [3]. - Domestic bond markets are expected to maintain a degree of independence, with a supportive monetary policy stance still in place, and a potential easing of external constraints as the U.S. may enter a rate-cutting cycle [3]. Group 3: Financial Products and Duration Tracking - As of August 31, the scale of wealth management products has slightly decreased by 8.2 billion yuan, while the overall duration of public funds has increased by 0.01 to 2.38, indicating a slight recovery in market consensus expectations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with non-farm employment increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][11][17]. Economic Data - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly to 48.7 in August from 48 in July, but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating ongoing contraction [10]. - The Eurozone's CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year in August, while core CPI slightly decreased to 2.3%, aligning with market expectations [10]. - U.S. job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, a ten-month low, and the trade deficit surged by 32.5% to $78.3 billion in July [10]. - The ADP employment report showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, below the expected 65,000 [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested that the Fed should begin cutting rates this month and continue to do so in the coming months, depending on future economic data [3][6][17]. - Market expectations for a 50 basis point cut in September have intensified following the weak employment data, although there are concerns about the potential for a "recession trade" if economic slowdown expectations become too pronounced [4][18]. Market Reactions - U.S. equities, silver, and copper experienced volatility, reflecting uncertainty between easing expectations and economic slowdown narratives [5][19]. - Gold prices rose, and the U.S. dollar weakened, indicating clearer expectations regarding monetary policy direction [5][19]. International Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that the 2% inflation target has been achieved, and necessary measures will continue to ensure price stability [6]. - The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor indicated that further rate hikes may be appropriate given the improving economic and price conditions [7]. Trade and Policy Developments - The U.S. and Japan are finalizing a trade agreement that includes measures to alleviate tariff burdens, with Japan committing to increase U.S. rice imports by 75% [15][16]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have risen due to President Trump's attempts to influence its leadership [6][18].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold surged over 1% on September 6, reaching a historic high of over $3600 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 37% [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of September 6, spot gold closed at $3586, up 1.15%, while COMEX gold futures rose 0.92% to $3639.8 per ounce, both marking new highs [1][2]. - Year-to-date, spot gold has increased by $976, representing a 37% rise, particularly breaking through the $3500 per ounce mark on September 2 [1][5]. Group 2: Market Influences - Four main factors are driving the current surge in gold prices: concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and ongoing central bank gold purchases [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, projecting prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 by mid-2026, with potential for prices to exceed $4500 per ounce under certain risk scenarios [6][7]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The increase in gold prices has led to higher prices for gold jewelry in China, with many brands seeing prices above 1060 yuan per gram [2][3]. - Despite high gold prices, consumer interest remains strong, with promotions and discounts attracting buyers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price has reached a historic high, surpassing $3600 per ounce, driven by various macroeconomic factors and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][6][7]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 6, spot gold prices briefly exceeded $3600 per ounce, marking a new historical record, with a closing price of $3586, reflecting a 1.15% increase [2]. - Year-to-date, spot gold has risen by $976, representing a 37% increase, particularly notable after a four-month period of consolidation around $3300 per ounce [2]. - The recent surge in gold prices has led to an increase in domestic gold jewelry prices, with many brands now pricing above 1060 yuan per gram [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Four main factors are identified as driving the recent rise in gold prices: concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and a sustained increase in gold purchases by global central banks [6]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, projecting prices to reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, citing risks associated with U.S. institutional credibility and concentrated commodity supply [7][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding gold's future trajectory, with analysts suggesting that if private investors diversify into gold similarly to central banks, prices could exceed $4500 per ounce [8]. - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with targets set at $3700 per ounce for the year and potentially reaching $4200 per ounce due to ongoing macroeconomic factors [8].

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented decision by former President Donald Trump to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has sparked significant political and financial turmoil, challenging the century-old tradition of the Federal Reserve's independence [1][4]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's action represents a direct challenge to the Federal Reserve's independence, which has been a cornerstone of the U.S. financial system since its establishment in 1913 [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's governance structure, designed to ensure diverse and balanced monetary policy decisions, is at risk as Trump aims to replace dissenting members with allies [3][4]. Group 2: Legal and Political Repercussions - Lisa Cook's immediate response includes plans to file a lawsuit against the dismissal, asserting that the President lacks the authority to unilaterally remove a Federal Reserve Governor [3][4]. - The legal framework established by the Federal Reserve Act protects the independence of the Fed, requiring "just cause" for any dismissal, a safeguard that Trump has seemingly breached [4]. Group 3: Economic Context and Implications - The backdrop of this political maneuvering includes a slowing U.S. economy and high debt levels, with Trump seeking to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates to stimulate growth [6]. - Experts warn that if the President can manipulate the Federal Reserve, it could lead to detrimental effects on the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, echoing issues faced by developing nations [6]. Group 4: Broader Political Landscape - Trump's actions are part of a broader strategy to retaliate against perceived political adversaries, indicating a systematic approach to consolidate power within the government [7]. - The political polarization in the U.S. is exacerbated by these events, with significant legislative changes occurring under Republican control, further entrenching party divisions [9].

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.32%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.14% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.33% [1] - European stock indices also had mixed performances, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.23%, while Germany's DAX 30 fell by 1.28% and France's CAC 40 decreased by 0.38% [1] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is highly anticipated as it will be a key indicator before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts this month, influenced by recent weak employment data [2] - The focus is on the August CPI data, which could either reinforce or dampen expectations for a series of rate cuts depending on whether inflation slows or exceeds expectations [2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September is expected to provide insights into current consumer sentiment and economic outlook [2] Group 3: Apple Inc. Product Launch - Apple is set to hold its fall product launch event on September 10, where it is expected to unveil the latest generation of iPhones, AirPods, and Apple Watches [3] Group 4: Oil and Gold Market Trends - International oil prices have seen a decline, with WTI crude oil down 3.34% to $61.87 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.93% to $65.50 per barrel [4] - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 2.4 million barrels has raised concerns about demand [4] - Gold prices have surged, with COMEX gold futures rising 4.02% to $3,613.20 per ounce, driven by expectations of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to weak employment data [4][6] Group 5: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased by 37% year-to-date, influenced by a weaker dollar, central bank purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - Market analysts suggest that the outlook for gold remains bullish, particularly due to concerns over the labor market overshadowing inflation worries [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the influence of political pressure on the Federal Reserve's decision-making, particularly in the context of potential changes in leadership and monetary policy under President Trump. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump has indicated three potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chairmanship: Hassett, Waller, and Walsh, all of whom have pro-business and accommodative monetary policy stances [3][4] - Current Fed Chair Powell's term lasts until 2026, but Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with him since 2018, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic when he pressured for aggressive rate cuts [4][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Implications - The U.S. is facing high interest rates, with projected interest costs exceeding $1 trillion in the 2024 fiscal year, accounting for about 13% of the federal budget [6] - Market expectations indicate that investors anticipate at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting skepticism about the Fed's ability to resist political pressure [6] - Historical precedents show that political interference in Fed decisions can lead to long-term economic issues, such as the inflation crisis of the 1970s [8] Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - The article raises concerns about the potential loss of the Fed's independence if it becomes a tool of the White House, which could undermine its credibility and the integrity of its monetary policy [8][12] - The current economic environment, with core inflation around 3%, suggests that hasty rate cuts could reignite inflation, negatively impacting the public [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, which could fundamentally alter the U.S. monetary policy landscape and the global financial system [3][6][9]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 to stabilize the U.S. financial system after the 1907 financial panic, characterized by its independence and long-term appointments for board members [1]. - Throughout its history, U.S. presidents have respected the Federal Reserve's independence, even during times of economic distress, with the most they could do being to nominate new board members [6]. Group 2: Current Events - Lisa Cook became the first Black woman on the Federal Reserve Board in May 2022, known for her cautious monetary policy stance and criticism of high tariffs, which she argues contribute to inflation [3][4]. - Trump's recent actions, including public criticism of Cook and pressure to lower interest rates, indicate a desire to influence monetary policy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [8][9]. Group 3: Legal and Institutional Implications - Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook raises significant legal questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, as the Federal Reserve Act requires just cause for such actions [4][6]. - The case may escalate to the Supreme Court, potentially impacting the long-standing independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of the U.S. dollar [9][10]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Trump's actions, the market reacted with a 0.8% drop in the dollar index and a 2.3% increase in gold prices, indicating heightened uncertainty and potential shifts in capital flows [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outcome of the legal battle could reshape the future of U.S. monetary policy and the global financial landscape, with implications for the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [10]. - The situation highlights the contrast between U.S. monetary policy and China's more stable and independent approach, which may offer a more reliable framework in uncertain times [10].