来源：南篱论金 2025.11.14 周五 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 我回来啦！ 这两天市场可不怎么好过呢，周三和周四的黄金，属实是有点不正常的。其他品种呢，都是慢慢悠悠在走，就黄金上蹿下跳的厉害。 特别是周三，由于突发的事件，直冲云霄，拉开周尾变局的序幕。众所周知，我也数次提醒过各位，冬令时美盘11点的时候大概率会有变盘，但是这次变盘 也来的太配合了点吧。 博斯蒂克说他要退休，黄金腾的一下就上去了。也行，正常。博斯蒂克嘛。美联储的理事，当他退休的时候，现在的市场就会在考虑到是否理事席位又将被 川子的人把控，一旦理事席位里鸽派人士较多，大厦倾向于不断降息。那这样的话，美联储还是否会有独立性呢？ 一则呢，是对这个独立性的疑问。二则呢，其实也是对于持将持续降息的这种恐慌情绪，带着黄金上去。 周四呢，也是周四是由于美老美开门事情。之前我在直播当中跟各位去提到过这件事情，如果真的开门，那么对避险来说是消散。也是因为前一天涨的比较 狠，后一天进行一些调整是理所应当的事情。 在技术面当中，日线的布林带中轨既然被站上去了，进一步往上去冲，也就充当做了支撑，也就是说今天最关键的一部分，还是中轨的70~80的得 ...

Group 1 - European financial stability officials are discussing a plan to integrate non-US central bank dollar reserves to create an alternative liquidity support mechanism to the Federal Reserve, aiming to reduce reliance on the US during the Trump administration [2] - The Federal Reserve's dollar liquidity tools are crucial for global financial stability, providing dollar loans to other central banks during market stress, with usage peaking at $449 billion during the COVID-19 pandemic [2] - Concerns have been raised by European central bank officials about the potential political weaponization of these tools by the Trump administration, particularly following the tariff policies proposed in April [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is facing political pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates, with Trump criticizing the Fed's policies and threatening to replace Chairman Powell [3] - The nomination process for the next Federal Reserve Chairman is underway, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent narrowing down candidates to five, expected to be submitted to Trump in December [3] - The remaining candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair include current Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Governor Christopher Waller, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a funding bill, ending a 43-day government shutdown, which Trump claims caused approximately $1.5 trillion in losses, prompting close attention to upcoming economic data [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are heightened due to Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, with the Supreme Court set to hold oral arguments on January 21, 2026 [2] - Analyst Owen from Bailihao believes that the upcoming departures of Fed Chairman Powell and several other officials will increase internal divisions within the Fed, intensifying investor concerns [2] - Technically, gold experienced a pullback after a spike, with a potential downward adjustment if it breaks below $4,145, targeting $4,080, while $4,195 serves as a key resistance level [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC forecasts a global oil demand increase of 1.6 million barrels per day to 106.2 million barrels per day, unchanged from last month’s prediction, with significant production increases expected from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana by 2026 [4] - The U.S. crude oil inventory rose by 6.413 million barrels for the week ending November 7, exceeding expectations of a 1.96 million barrel increase, marking the highest level since June 6 [4] - U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 1.3862 million barrels per day, the highest since January 31 [4] - Technically, oil prices are expected to continue low-level fluctuations, with resistance at $59.30 and support at $58 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have been fluctuating upward over the past week, but a recent drop below the previous low of $5.04 indicates a weakening trend, with a higher probability of further declines [5] - The upper resistance level for copper is noted at $5.06 [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a broad upward fluctuation, with a bullish outlook overall; however, it failed to break the resistance at 51,500 and has dropped below the 50,600 support level, indicating a potential test of the 49,500 support [5]

Markets are continuing to price in an interest rate cut in December. That's despite uh Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Pal's recent hawkish comments, saying another cut this year is not a foregone conclusion. And it's not just rate cuts that have all eyes on the Fed this year.Investors are also waiting to see who will become the next Fed chair and what the future of Fed independence will look like due to ongoing pressure from President Trump. Join me now at Invest is Le Brainer, former Federal Reserve vice cha ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to remain weak in the medium to long term, despite being overvalued since Trump's presidency began [1] Group 1: Dollar Valuation - Analysts believe the dollar is still overvalued, even after a decline since Trump's inauguration [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have negatively impacted market sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The expanding deficit poses a long-term risk to the stability of the US debt market [1] - Any potential recovery of the dollar is likely to be short-lived, as markets typically do not move in a straight line and will experience periods of consolidation [1]

美国最高法院将于1月21日就特朗普是否有权解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克进行口头辩论。特朗普指控库克 多年前在抵押贷款文件上作假陈述，但她未受任何指控。 分析人士认为，特朗普此举意在安插支持大幅降息的鸽派理事，削弱美联储独立性。奥康奈尔表示，若 裁决有利于总统，将重创美联储公信力，利好黄金并可能压低美元。 尽管口头辩论即将举行，但最终判决不会很快出台，库克短期内将继续留任。目前美联储虽已降息，但 鲍威尔强调12月进一步行动并非必然，市场预计降息概率为65%。 摘要周四(11月13日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4223一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4231.65美元/ 盎司，上涨0.87%，最高触及4233.94美元/盎司，最低下探4179.49美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏 向上涨走势。 周四(11月13日)欧盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4223一线上方，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报4231.65美元/盎 司，上涨0.87%，最高触及4233.94美元/盎司，最低下探4179.49美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线偏向 上涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储独立性受威胁的担忧，已推动金价创历史新高。StoneX分析师奥康奈尔认为， ...

【#黄金还会再涨500美元吗#？#美联储理事任免或影响黄金涨跌#】黄金正在等待下一轮上涨的驱动因 素。美国最高法院周三表示，将在明年1月21日举行口头辩论，讨论美国总统特朗普是否有权解雇美联 储理事库克。市场认为这一结果将决定美联储未来的独立性强弱，并成为推动黄金价格飙升至历史新高 的一个重要因素。StoneX市场分析主管Rhona O'Connell在周三的一份报告中指出，黄金市场将密切关 注这一进程。如果判决对特朗普有利，由于美联储独立性降低，金价可能会上涨500美元/盎司。这是一 个利好，但美元走软可能会产生进一步的影响。而如果法院判决对库克有利，情况则恰恰相反。（智通 财经） ...

（原标题："大鹰派"意外宣布提前退休，美联储货币政策再添疑云） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 在特朗普政府谋求扩大对美联储人事影响力之际，当地时间11月12日，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克意外 宣布将于2026年2月28日任期届满时退休，现年59岁的博斯蒂克距离美联储强制退休年龄还有五年多， 他本可以再连任一届。 与此同时，亚特兰大联储董事会已启动遴选程序，预计将在明年2月底前敲定继任者。 需要注意的是，博斯蒂克是"鹰派"官员的代表。他表示，在看到"明确证据"显示通胀正朝美联储2%的 目标回落前，他倾向于维持利率在当前水平。在评估美联储"双重使命"所面临的风险时，他认为"更明 确且更紧迫的风险仍然在于物价稳定"。 随着"大鹰派"意外提前退休，美联储货币政策不确定性愈发浓厚。 博斯蒂克主动回避了一场可能的连任争议。白宫正寻求重塑美联储决策层，美联储理事丽莎·库克正遭 遇罢免危机，明年美联储主席也将换人。 根据现行制度，美国总统并不直接提名12家地区联储主席人选，但相关任命需经美联储理事会批准。所 有12位地区联储主席都需在五年任期结束后重新寻求连任，这一过程通常低调且例行化。但如果特朗普 政府试图在人事上施加 ...

Group 1 - The overall outlook for precious metals is expected to continue a strong oscillation at high levels in the short term, driven by various market factors [1] - The expectation of the U.S. government reopening and the return of interest rate cut expectations are contributing to a bullish sentiment for gold prices [2] - The retirement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic is likely to lead to a more dovish stance within the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold and silver prices [2] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are a significant factor pushing gold prices higher, with potential implications for a $500 increase in gold prices if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the President [3] - Increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties are creating upward pressure on gold prices, as investors seek alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - The recent technical correction in gold prices has alleviated overbought market conditions, contributing to a renewed bullish momentum [3]

美联储柯林斯：美联储的独立性使其能够从长期视角出发，专注于以数据为导向的政策。 来源：滚动播报 ...