Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate surged approximately 300 points, reaching 7.1173, marking the first time it has surpassed 7.12 since November 6, 2024 [1] - The appreciation of the RMB significantly outpaced the depreciation of the USD [1] - The FTSE China A50 index futures rose by about 0.3% [4] Group 2 - According to China Merchants Securities, the RMB middle rate has steadily appreciated since July, and it is expected that the RMB settlement scale may expand again around the FOMC rate cut in September [6] - If the central bank continues to adhere to a market supply-demand-based adjustment policy, the RMB exchange rate may return to the "6" level, enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [6] Group 3 - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down, while the Nasdaq rose by approximately 0.3% [8] - Nvidia's stock fell over 1% despite reporting a 56% revenue growth that exceeded Wall Street expectations, although there were concerns regarding its data center business revenue being slightly below expectations [9][10]

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose significantly in July, with a year-on-year increase from 2.3% in June to 3.3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.5% [1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by 0.9%, marking the largest rise in nearly three years, exceeding the expected 0.2% and previous value of 0% [1] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, saw a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, higher than the expected 3% and previous value of 2.6% [1] Group 2 - Service costs were the main driver of the PPI increase, with a month-on-month rise of 1.1% in July [2] - Wholesale and retail profit margins surged by 2%, primarily driven by wholesale machinery equipment [2] - The PPI for goods, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.4% [2] Group 3 - The PPI energy prices followed the rise in international oil prices, indicating a correlation between energy costs and PPI [3] - Companies are adjusting the pricing of goods and services to offset the cost pressures from higher tariffs in the U.S. [3] - The extent to which companies pass on tariff burdens to consumers will be a key factor in determining future interest rate paths [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell anticipates that the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will increase by 2.5% year-over-year in June [1] Group 1 - The expected increase in the PCE price index indicates ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy [1] - The 2.5% year-over-year rise reflects the Fed's focus on monitoring inflation trends as part of its monetary policy strategy [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite rising calls for interest rate cuts from President Trump and speculation about the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, the Fed's policy rate outlook remains largely unchanged due to increasing inflation pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, as inflation data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2.4% to 2.7% in June [2] - The trend of declining commodity prices is reversing, contributing to overall inflation and suggesting that businesses may be passing some costs onto consumers [2] Group 2 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic noted that inflation may be at a "turning point," with nearly half of the goods experiencing annualized price increases of 5% or more, double the rate from January [2] - Fed officials project that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will rise by 3% by the end of the year, but they only anticipate a 0.5 percentage point rate cut, which is significantly less than market expectations [2] - There is a general consensus among Fed officials against aggressive rate cuts, maintaining a cautious stance amid ongoing inflationary pressures [2] Group 3 - The US dollar index is facing key resistance in the 97.80-98.00 range, which coincides with recent highs and the upper boundary of a descending wedge pattern, creating multiple technical pressure points [3] - Momentum indicators show mild bullish signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering to near the neutral zone of 50, indicating a restoration of market momentum, though it has not yet reached overbought conditions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant drop in international precious metals, particularly gold and platinum, on June 27, with gold prices falling over $50 in a single day [1][3]. - As of 20:36, the London gold spot price decreased by 1.69% to $3,271 per ounce, marking a new low for the past four weeks [3]. - COMEX gold futures also fell to $3,289 per ounce, while spot platinum experienced a more severe decline, dropping over 6% to $1,329 per ounce [3][5]. Group 2 - The article mentions that the U.S. Commerce Secretary revealed plans for the White House to soon reach agreements with ten major trading partners, including a potential deal with India [5]. - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in May, meeting expectations, while the core PCE index rose by 2.68%, exceeding the forecast and reaching the highest level since February 2025 [6].

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. for May showed a modest increase, with core PPI reaching its lowest level since August 2024, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pressured consumer and business prices [1][3] Group 1: PPI Overview - The PPI rose by only 0.1% month-over-month in May, below economists' expectations of 0.2%. Core PPI also increased by 0.1%, with goods prices (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.2% and service prices by 0.1% [3][5] - The report reflects a continuation of the mild performance seen in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the past four months, suggesting that the impact of tariff increases on the American public has been relatively subdued so far [3][5] Group 2: Profit Margins and Price Trends - Wholesale and retail profit margins expanded in May, particularly in the vehicle and machinery wholesale sectors, following a contraction in April. This indicates that businesses are absorbing tariff costs without passing them on to consumers [3][5] - Food prices saw a slight increase of 0.1% after two months of decline, while energy costs remained stable. Intermediate demand processing goods costs showed minimal increases, and raw goods prices have declined for three consecutive months [5][6] Group 3: Specific Price Changes - The final demand services index rose by 0.1% in May, rebounding from a 0.4% decline in April, primarily due to a 0.4% increase in trade service profit margins. Notable increases were seen in mechanical and vehicle wholesale profit margins, which surged by 2.9% [5][6] - In the final demand goods category, prices increased by 0.2% in May, with tobacco products rising by 0.9%. Conversely, airline fuel prices dropped by 8.2% [5][6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the PPI report, traders fully priced in the scenario of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [9] - The dollar index fell approximately 20 points to 97.70, while U.S. stock futures saw a slight uptick, with the Nasdaq 100 futures narrowing their decline to 0.5% [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining confidence in investment despite temporary losses, suggesting that setbacks should be viewed as learning opportunities rather than failures [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March is set to be released, with any reading below 50 indicating a contraction in business activity, which could put short-term pressure on the dollar and potentially drive gold prices higher [2]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, will also be released. A stronger-than-expected core PCE could support the dollar and lead to a decline in gold prices, while weaker data may alleviate inflation concerns and stabilize gold prices [3]. Gold Market Analysis - Recent market activity shows a significant pullback in gold prices, marking the first occurrence of a bearish candle since the recent upward trend. The price has retreated to the 3000 level, indicating a potential correction phase [5]. - The analysis suggests two scenarios for the gold market: if prices stabilize above 3000, there may be further upward movement; however, if the 3000 support level is breached, deeper declines could follow. The next few trading days are critical, particularly regarding the 3000 support line [5]. Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes selling on a rebound near 3025-3030 with a stop loss at 3037 and a target of 3006, as well as buying on a pullback near 3000-3005 with a stop loss at 2993 and a target of 3035 [6].