Core Viewpoint - The rally in gold prices has paused as a peace deal between Israel and Hamas begins to take shape [1] Group 1 - The recent developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict are influencing market dynamics, particularly in the gold sector [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices soared, with the main contract approaching the 81,000 yuan mark. Today, prices oscillated downward. Macroscopically, the Middle - East situation eased, overseas risk appetite increased, and after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, domestic macro - expectations rose. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, and the black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Industrially, as copper prices rose, downstream buyers became more hesitant, and Mysteel's social inventory increased slightly on Thursday. With macro factors driving prices up and the contract breaking through 80,000 yuan on increased positions, it is expected to maintain a strong trend. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated below 20,700 yuan, and its open interest increased slightly. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas atmospheres improved. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the market expected the elimination of backward production capacity, and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations. The black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Industrially, as the downstream entered the off - season and had price - aversion sentiment, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel showed a strong oscillation, approaching the 122,000 yuan mark in the afternoon. Globally, the macro - environment improved, and nickel prices rebounded from the bottom. Domestically, the macro - situation also improved after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission. The black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, short - term strength in the ore end supported nickel prices, while long - term nickel element surplus limited its upside. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 122,000 yuan level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 3rd, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 129,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the 26th and an increase of 5,900 tons from the 30th. On the same day, Cailian Press reported that Goldman Sachs expected an upward risk for LME copper prices in August, with a predicted price of $10,050 per ton [8]. - **Aluminum**: On July 3rd, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the 30th and 6,000 tons from the 26th [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 3rd, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,880 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,080 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,330 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,680 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai copper monthly spread, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum monthly spread [22][24][26]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

Overall Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Report Period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures will continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply is ample with high imports and high mill operation rates, but there are uncertainties from the strengthening Brazilian soybean premium and Sino - US trade relations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons with an operation rate of 67.02%. Soybean inventory was 6.3799 million tons, up 383,900 tons (6.40%) from last week. Soybean meal inventory was 508,900 tons, up 98,900 tons (24.12%) from last week. With high imports and high operation rates, supply is abundant, but there are uncertainties from Brazilian premiums and Sino - US trade. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 3120 in the short - term, and range trading was recommended [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract may continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation, with an expected trading range of 2880 - 3080 [11]. 1.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is in a high - level oscillation phase. High domestic soybean arrivals boost mill crushing, while weak summer consumption and falling crude oil prices due to the easing Middle - East situation suppress prices. However, there are uncertainties from US biodiesel policies and the key growth period of US soybeans. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 2.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a high - level oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 453,000 tons, up 23,800 tons from last week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 886,300 tons, up 39,300 tons from last week. High soybean arrivals, weak summer consumption, and falling crude oil prices suppress prices, but there are uncertainties from US policies and US soybean growth. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [31]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward channel overall, with bullish funds. Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the price was expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, and it was recommended to wait and see [34]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward channel overall, with slightly bullish funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with an expected trading range of 7800 - 8100 [35]. 2.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, and weekly port inventory. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [44][47][49]

Group 1 - Iran launched two rounds of missiles totaling 19 towards the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, with no casualties or material damage reported [1] - The first round consisted of 7 missiles, all intercepted by Qatar's defense system, while 11 out of 12 missiles in the second round were intercepted, with one landing on the base without causing harm [1] - Iran notified the U.S. and Qatar through diplomatic channels prior to the attack, indicating a level of caution and strategic planning [1][6] Group 2 - Trump's response to the missile attack expressed gratitude for Iran's prior notification and suggested a potential for peace in the region, contrasting with his previous aggressive stance [2][4] - Following Trump's comments, WTI crude oil prices dropped by 9% and Brent crude by 8.5%, reflecting market relief over the limited nature of the Iranian attack [2] - Analysts noted that the attack appeared to be a symbolic gesture rather than a significant military escalation, which contributed to the decline in oil prices [5][6] Group 3 - The attack was characterized as a "conflict de-escalation" tactic by Iran, allowing them to claim a response to U.S. actions while avoiding further military entanglement [6] - The strategic approach taken by Iran mirrors previous limited attacks on Israel, suggesting a calculated response aimed at maintaining internal stability [6] - The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for ongoing conflicts in the region, particularly between Iran and Israel [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that UK Prime Minister Starmer believes there is a consensus reached at the G7 meeting regarding the easing of tensions in the Middle East [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Germany, France, and the UK are prepared to engage in immediate discussions with Iran regarding Tehran's nuclear program to ease tensions in the Middle East [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Slovak Foreign Minister emphasizes the need for all parties in the Middle East to exercise restraint and focus on de-escalating tensions [1] Group 1 - The Slovak Foreign Minister calls for a collective effort to maintain calm in the region [1] - The statement highlights the importance of dialogue and cooperation among involved parties to address the ongoing situation [1]