美联储降息节奏可能在"快-慢-快"之间切换 美联储9月重启降息，美元宽松周期进入新阶段，或对中外经济运行与资产表现产生深远影响。中金的 基准预期是美联储降息周期可能分为"快-慢-快"3个阶段： 中金发布研报称，美联储9月重启降息，美元宽松周期进入新阶段。由于通胀8月刚确认上行拐点，绝对 水平不高，且美联储可以用"暂时性"现象淡化通胀压力，而就业下行风险比通胀上行风险更迫切，所 以"稳增长"的优先级高于"控通胀"。叠加特朗普施加较大政治压力，预计美联储可能降息节奏较快，或 连续降息3-4次。往前看，10月可能仍为流动性共振的窗口期，宽松交易是市场主线，综合风险收益， A股和港股相对美股的配置性价比更高。由于宏观流动性趋于宽松，且美联储独立性与美元信誉受损， 维持超配黄金。 中金主要观点如下： 美联储降息后的经济路径：经济指标拐点的全景追踪框架 中金认为，美国经济当前仍在走向滞胀(增长下行+通胀上行)或衰退(增长下行+通胀下行)，滞胀可能性 高于衰退。但考虑到美联储已经重启宽松周期，且2026年财政赤字可能重回扩张，政策推动之下，美国 增长在未来某个时点最终会掉头上行。在通胀上行期间，如果增长转为上行，将形成一种 ...

美联储降息节奏可能在"快-慢-快"之间切换 美联储9月重启降息，美元宽松周期进入新阶段，或对中外经济运行与资产表现产生深远影响。我们的基准预期是美联储降息周期可能分为"快-慢-快"3个 阶段： 文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿 点击小程序查看报告原文 2025Q4是第一阶段，降息节奏较快： 由于通胀8月刚确认上行拐点（《 拐点将至：美国通胀的资产启示 》），绝对水平不高，且美联储可以用"暂时 性"现象淡化通胀压力，而就业下行风险比通胀上行风险更迫切，所以"稳增长"的优先级高于"控通胀"。 图表1：美国通胀已确认上行拐点，未来3个季度或持续抬升 资料来源：Haver，中金公司研究部 叠加特朗普施加较大政治压力，我们预计美联储可能降息节奏较快，或连续降息3-4次。 2026H1为第二阶段，降息节奏放慢。 随着通胀持续上行，美联储或需重新平衡增长下行与通胀上行风险，无法持续快速降息，可能用停止"缩表"来安抚 金融市场。 2026H2为第三阶段，降息节奏再次加速。 由于2026年5月鲍威尔任期届满，我们预计特朗普政府大概率提名更鸽派的美联储主席上台，并且关税对通胀的 推升效果也可能告一段落，美联储可能重新加快降息节 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global financial market, with a focus on the Chinese and American stock markets, monetary policies, and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Liquidity and Asset Prices** Current resonance in monetary policies between China and the U.S. has led to global liquidity easing, benefiting various assets. However, there is a divergence between asset prices and economic fundamentals due to the forward-looking nature of asset prices and abundant liquidity [1][2][3] 2. **Chinese Stock Market Dynamics** The Chinese stock market is experiencing high liquidity, indicated by elevated financing balances, account openings, and turnover rates. This liquidity is primarily driven by the transfer of household deposits into the stock market, referred to as "residential deposit migration" [1][4][5] 3. **U.S. Dollar Downtrend** The U.S. dollar is entering a long-term downtrend, with diminishing relative economic advantages for the U.S. This trend is expected to lead to a depreciation of the dollar, creating a favorable investment environment for various assets globally [1][7] 4. **Impact of U.S. Treasury Issuance** The peak issuance of U.S. Treasuries is not expected to significantly impact dollar liquidity or financial markets this year. The overall trend remains one of increasing global liquidity, benefiting various capital forms [1][8] 5. **Inflation and Economic Pressures in the U.S.** The U.S. economy faces dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation, increasing the risk of stagflation. The Federal Reserve may face political pressure to lower interest rates, which would favor gold and Chinese stocks [1][11][22] 6. **Investment Recommendations** It is advised to prioritize allocations in gold, Chinese A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks due to favorable conditions in the current liquidity environment. The recommendation is to maintain a positive outlook and increase allocations during market fluctuations [1][12][31] 7. **Future of U.S. Inflation** U.S. inflation is expected to continue rising due to the disappearance of seasonal distortions and the ongoing effects of tariffs. The inflation rate could reach between 3.5% to 4% in the near term [1][18][21] 8. **Market Volatility and Investment Strategy** The global stock market is currently experiencing volatility, but September and October are seen as favorable investment periods. Investors are encouraged to adopt a proactive approach, increasing allocations in response to market dips [1][28][33] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Quality of U.S. Inflation Data** The quality of U.S. inflation data is compromised by statistical biases and inconsistencies in data collection, which may obscure the true inflationary pressures [1][15][16] 2. **Trade War Impacts** The ongoing U.S. trade war is unlikely to resolve tax burdens completely, with most costs ultimately borne by U.S. consumers and businesses rather than foreign exporters [1][20] 3. **Future Policy Considerations** The future of liquidity in the Chinese market is contingent on government policies and fiscal measures, with potential downturns in liquidity expected if new policies are not introduced [1][26][27] 4. **Investment in Commodities** A cautious approach is recommended for commodity investments due to weak global demand and economic conditions, although specific sectors like rare earths may present opportunities [1][32]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's unexpected dovish shift suggests a potential interest rate cut in September, with market expectations for a rate cut probability rising to 86% [1][2] - Powell's comments indicate a preference for stabilizing growth over controlling inflation, which may reduce recession risks but increase stagflation risks [4] - The expectation is that U.S. inflation has reached an upward turning point, with the upward cycle likely to last nearly a year [4][5] Group 2 - In the next 1-3 months, investors may struggle to determine the duration and magnitude of inflation's rise, as the Fed could interpret it as a temporary phenomenon [7] - Historical data shows that during periods of "rising inflation + declining growth," the dollar typically depreciates, gold prices rise, and U.S. Treasury yields decline, while stock performance is mixed [8][9] - The current liquidity environment in the U.S. remains ample, with bank reserves significantly higher than during the 2019 liquidity crisis [14][15] Group 3 - China's fiscal policies have led to improved macro liquidity, with M1 and M2 growth rates turning upward, indicating a shift in liquidity towards the stock market [18][20] - The government's proactive fiscal measures have not only enhanced liquidity but also reversed pessimistic market expectations, reducing stock market downside risks [22] - The correlation between stocks and bonds in China has turned negative, suggesting a "stock-bond seesaw" effect rather than simultaneous bullish trends [27][31] Group 4 - The synchronized liquidity easing in both the U.S. and China may create a favorable macro environment for various asset classes, including stocks and gold [33] - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this liquidity easing, as rising inflation in the U.S. could disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting plans [36] - The current market environment presents both risks and opportunities, with potential volatility expected around key economic data releases in early September [39] Group 5 - Recommendations include overweighting A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, while maintaining a neutral position on U.S. bonds and adjusting U.S. stocks from underweight to neutral [40][42] - The valuation of Chinese stocks, particularly the CSI 300 index, is close to historical averages, suggesting potential for upward movement [40] - The current environment favors gold, with expectations that it remains in the early stages of a bull market despite recent volatility [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's shift towards a dovish stance, indicating a potential interest rate cut in September, which may lead to a temporary easing of dollar liquidity and impact various asset classes positively [2][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Inflation Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent comments suggest a preference for stabilizing growth over controlling inflation, which may reduce recession risks but increase stagflation risks [4]. - Market expectations for a September rate cut have risen to 86%, reflecting investor sentiment towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2]. - The article predicts that inflation in the U.S. may have reached an upward turning point, with an expected upward cycle lasting nearly a year [4][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Historical data indicates that during periods of "inflation rising + growth declining," the dollar typically depreciates, U.S. Treasury yields decline, and gold prices increase, while stock market performance can be mixed [6]. - The article highlights that the current liquidity in the U.S. market is robust, with bank reserves significantly higher than during the 2019 liquidity crisis, which reduces liquidity risks [13][15]. Group 3: China’s Economic Environment - China's fiscal policies have been proactive, enhancing macro liquidity and shifting it towards the stock market, which has improved market sentiment and reduced downside risks for equities [18][21]. - The article notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds in China may turn negative in a low-inflation environment, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect [24]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article recommends overweighting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, maintaining a standard allocation to U.S. and Chinese bonds, and adjusting U.S. stocks from underweight to standard weight due to improved liquidity conditions [29][42]. - It emphasizes the potential for gold to perform well in a declining interest rate environment, suggesting a continued overweight position in gold [34][40].