华泰证券指出，预计美联储12月较大概率继续降息。当前市场定价的12月降息概率下降至60%左右，鲍 威尔也表示降息仍有变数，取决于后续就业和通胀数据走势。从就业数据来看，首申和岗位空缺等数据 显示就业市场偏弱，但近期ADP发布的周度就业数据显示10月以来就业市场有所企稳，与NFIB雇佣意 愿的持续回升一致；从通胀数据来看，9月CPI整体不及预期，且通胀预期仍然保持稳定。我们认为， 虽然就业市场下行风险后续或有所下降，但就业修复较慢，且通胀整体温和，联储12月继续降息仍然是 基准情形；如果2026年就业市场持续改善，且通胀高于联储目标水平，市场当前所定价的2026年接近降 息3次或难以兑现。考虑到就业市场后续或有企稳，联储继续降息，且缩表结束，美元流动性整体仍然 维持宽松，有助于支撑美国资产价格。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Market Performance - The three major stock indices experienced fluctuations and declined, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropping over 1% and more than 3,400 stocks in the market showing losses [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.3% to 3,820.09 points, the Shenzhen Component Index slightly decreased by 0.04% to 13,070.86 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.16% to 3,091 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong markets reached 23,497 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, brokerage, automotive, and semiconductors saw declines, while the tourism sector experienced strong gains [1] - Coal, media, and gas sectors showed upward movement, with active performance in sectors like photolithography machines, lithium mining, and military trade concepts [1] Economic Outlook - According to China Merchants Securities, the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as the beginning rather than the end, suggesting that future trading expectations for rate cuts may fluctuate, potentially leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields [1] - The current drivers of the A-share market's upward trend remain unchanged, indicating that the A-share market is still in the second phase of a bull market, with expectations for continued growth along low penetration rate sectors [1] Investment Sentiment - Hengsheng Qianhai Fund noted that after a sustained market rise, some funds opted to take profits in the short term due to the favorable interest rate cut, causing some disturbance in bullish market sentiment [1] - Following the Fed's rate cut, global liquidity is likely to become more accommodative, combined with the acceleration of domestic growth stabilization policies, suggesting that the economic fundamentals will continue to improve [1] - The trend of revaluation for Chinese assets is ongoing, and while short-term rapid increases may lead to greater volatility, short-term corrections do not alter the long-term positive trend, with expectations for a slow bull market to continue [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's unexpected dovish shift suggests a potential interest rate cut in September, with market expectations for a rate cut probability rising to 86% [1][2] - Powell's comments indicate a preference for stabilizing growth over controlling inflation, which may reduce recession risks but increase stagflation risks [4] - The expectation is that U.S. inflation has reached an upward turning point, with the upward cycle likely to last nearly a year [4][5] Group 2 - In the next 1-3 months, investors may struggle to determine the duration and magnitude of inflation's rise, as the Fed could interpret it as a temporary phenomenon [7] - Historical data shows that during periods of "rising inflation + declining growth," the dollar typically depreciates, gold prices rise, and U.S. Treasury yields decline, while stock performance is mixed [8][9] - The current liquidity environment in the U.S. remains ample, with bank reserves significantly higher than during the 2019 liquidity crisis [14][15] Group 3 - China's fiscal policies have led to improved macro liquidity, with M1 and M2 growth rates turning upward, indicating a shift in liquidity towards the stock market [18][20] - The government's proactive fiscal measures have not only enhanced liquidity but also reversed pessimistic market expectations, reducing stock market downside risks [22] - The correlation between stocks and bonds in China has turned negative, suggesting a "stock-bond seesaw" effect rather than simultaneous bullish trends [27][31] Group 4 - The synchronized liquidity easing in both the U.S. and China may create a favorable macro environment for various asset classes, including stocks and gold [33] - However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this liquidity easing, as rising inflation in the U.S. could disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting plans [36] - The current market environment presents both risks and opportunities, with potential volatility expected around key economic data releases in early September [39] Group 5 - Recommendations include overweighting A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold, while maintaining a neutral position on U.S. bonds and adjusting U.S. stocks from underweight to neutral [40][42] - The valuation of Chinese stocks, particularly the CSI 300 index, is close to historical averages, suggesting potential for upward movement [40] - The current environment favors gold, with expectations that it remains in the early stages of a bull market despite recent volatility [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's shift towards a dovish stance, indicating a potential interest rate cut in September, which may lead to a temporary easing of dollar liquidity and impact various asset classes positively [2][4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Inflation Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent comments suggest a preference for stabilizing growth over controlling inflation, which may reduce recession risks but increase stagflation risks [4]. - Market expectations for a September rate cut have risen to 86%, reflecting investor sentiment towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2]. - The article predicts that inflation in the U.S. may have reached an upward turning point, with an expected upward cycle lasting nearly a year [4][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Historical data indicates that during periods of "inflation rising + growth declining," the dollar typically depreciates, U.S. Treasury yields decline, and gold prices increase, while stock market performance can be mixed [6]. - The article highlights that the current liquidity in the U.S. market is robust, with bank reserves significantly higher than during the 2019 liquidity crisis, which reduces liquidity risks [13][15]. Group 3: China’s Economic Environment - China's fiscal policies have been proactive, enhancing macro liquidity and shifting it towards the stock market, which has improved market sentiment and reduced downside risks for equities [18][21]. - The article notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds in China may turn negative in a low-inflation environment, leading to a "stock-bond seesaw" effect [24]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article recommends overweighting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, maintaining a standard allocation to U.S. and Chinese bonds, and adjusting U.S. stocks from underweight to standard weight due to improved liquidity conditions [29][42]. - It emphasizes the potential for gold to perform well in a declining interest rate environment, suggesting a continued overweight position in gold [34][40].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares is attributed to a combination of global macroeconomic factors and domestic market characteristics, with significant contributions from U.S. fiscal policy changes and abundant dollar liquidity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Global Market Context - The Shanghai Composite Index recently reached a nearly 10-year high, surpassing 3746 points, while the Shenzhen Index hit a two-year high, with A-share total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1]. - Global markets have experienced significant gains this year, driven by favorable conditions such as the resolution of trade tensions and a shift in U.S. fiscal policy towards expansion, including a proposed $4 trillion tax cut [1][2]. - The decline of the U.S. dollar index by approximately 10% year-to-date has created a favorable liquidity environment for non-U.S. markets, facilitating capital inflows into A-shares [2]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Factors - China's economy is projected to achieve a 5% growth rate for the year, with a 5.3% actual GDP growth in the first half, positioning it uniquely among major economies [3]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets and supporting foreign capital inflows [3]. - The stability of Chinese policy compared to the U.S. adds to the appeal of A-shares, as it reduces the risk premium demanded by investors [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Recent market activity has shown a significant increase in retail and leveraged funds, with 1.96 million new accounts opened in July and a 39% increase in small-cap fund inflows [4]. - Foreign capital has also shown signs of recovery, with a 36.3% increase in average daily trading volume from northbound funds in July [4]. - The sustainability of the current A-share rally is contingent on external macroeconomic stability, with potential risks from U.S. policy changes and dollar liquidity tightening [4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index recently reached a nearly 10-year high, surpassing 3746 points, while the Shenzhen Index hit a two-year high, with the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] - Global markets have shown significant gains this year, influenced by favorable global factors, including agreements reached by the U.S. government with certain countries and a shift from fiscal contraction to expansion in the U.S. [1][2] Dollar Liquidity and Capital Flows - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index, down 2.7% in the past quarter and nearly 10% year-to-date, has created a favorable liquidity environment for non-U.S. markets [2] - As of June 30, foreign capital held approximately 2.29 trillion yuan in A-shares through northbound channels, an increase of 871 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [2] Economic Fundamentals - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with an expected annual growth of around 5%, making it unique among major economies [3] - The strong performance of the renminbi is attracting foreign investment, providing more room for domestic monetary policy adjustments [3] Policy Environment - China's policy environment is characterized by stability compared to the uncertainty in U.S. policies, which lowers the risk premium required by investors [3] - Recent policy adjustments aimed at reducing systemic risks are expected to have a long-term positive impact on the A-share market [3] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the A-share market has been driven by retail and leveraged funds, with significant increases in new accounts and net inflows into the stock market [4] - Foreign capital is showing signs of recovery, with a 36.3% increase in average daily trading volume from northbound funds in July [4] Sustainability of Market Trends - The sustainability of the A-share market's upward trend is influenced by external macroeconomic conditions, with potential risks from U.S. policy uncertainties and a tightening of dollar liquidity [5] - A relatively loose domestic market environment supports active financing leverage and thematic trading [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index recently reached a nearly 10-year high, surpassing 3746 points, while the Shenzhen Index hit a two-year high, with the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] - Global markets have shown significant gains this year, influenced by favorable global factors, including agreements reached by the U.S. government with certain countries and a shift from fiscal contraction to expansion in the U.S. [1][2] Dollar Liquidity and Capital Flows - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index, down 2.7% in the past quarter and nearly 10% year-to-date, has created a favorable liquidity environment for non-U.S. markets [2] - As of June 30, foreign capital held approximately 2.29 trillion yuan in A-shares through northbound channels, an increase of 871 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [2] Economic Fundamentals - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with an expected annual growth of around 5%, making it unique among major economies [3] - The strong performance of the renminbi is attracting foreign investment, providing more room for domestic monetary policy adjustments [3] Policy Environment - China's policy environment is characterized by stability compared to the uncertainty in U.S. policies, which lowers the risk premium required by investors [3] - Recent policy adjustments aimed at reducing systemic risks are expected to have a long-term positive impact on the A-share market [3] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in the A-share market has been driven by retail and leveraged funds, with significant increases in new accounts and net inflows into the stock market [4] - Foreign capital is showing signs of recovery, with a 36.3% increase in average daily trading volume from northbound funds in July [4] Sustainability of Market Trends - The sustainability of the A-share market's upward trend is influenced by external macroeconomic conditions, with potential risks from U.S. policy uncertainties and a tightening of dollar liquidity [5] - A relatively loose domestic market environment supports active financing leverage and thematic trading [5]

Group 1 - Hilltop Metal Mining (SVM.US) saw a 6.40% increase in stock price, reaching $4.49, with a year-to-date gain of 50% [1] - Gold prices rose for the second consecutive trading day, increasing by 1.7%, recovering losses from the past two weeks [1] - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984 per ton, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [1] - Hilltop focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of non-ferrous and precious metal mines, including silver, gold, lead, and zinc [1] - The EL Domo copper-gold project has completed a feasibility study, with a resource estimate of 10.1 million tons containing 22.9 tons of gold, 438.2 tons of silver, 20.8 million tons of copper, 25.5 million tons of zinc, and 2.3 million tons of lead [1] Group 3 - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Build Back Better" legislation is believed to be a key driver for the rise in copper prices [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, with a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [2] - Goldman Sachs now anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points starting September 2025, compared to a previous forecast of only one cut in December [2]