作者丨宋雪涛（国金证券首席经济学家） 编辑丨洪晓文 近期上证指数创下近10年新高，一度突破3746点，深指也创下两年内新高，A股总市值突破 100万亿元。这一系列表现其实并非孤立事件，若将A股置于全球市场中进行观察，不难发 现，今年以来全球多个主要市场均录得显著涨幅。在这种普遍性的上涨行情背后，全球性的利 好因素值得关注。 今年上半年，由本届美国政府发起的贸易战为全球市场带来了持续的利空效应。近期随着美国 政府与部分国家达成协议，市场悬念落地。此外，美国的财政预期也发生了根本性转变，一季 度因政府效率部（DOGE）改革预期而产生的财政收缩预期，在二季度转向了财政扩张。而美 国一项未来十年减税规模达4万亿美元的"大而美法案"被提出，美国联邦财政赤字占GDP比重 预期从每年6%滚动至约7%，财政不再收缩的预期，为美股乃至全球风险资产的上涨奠定了重 要前提。 如果说上述情形是点燃市场的火花，那么充裕的美元流动性就是浇灌市场的燃油。全球市场水 牛行情，其根源在于美元流动性宽松的外溢效应。过去一个季度，美元指数下跌了2.7%，年 初至今累计下跌近10%。美元走弱通常意味着非美市场的流动性环境趋于宽松，资本从美国流 向其 ...

Group 1 - Hilltop Metal Mining (SVM.US) saw a 6.40% increase in stock price, reaching $4.49, with a year-to-date gain of 50% [1] - Gold prices rose for the second consecutive trading day, increasing by 1.7%, recovering losses from the past two weeks [1] - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984 per ton, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 per ton in August [1] - Hilltop focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of non-ferrous and precious metal mines, including silver, gold, lead, and zinc [1] - The EL Domo copper-gold project has completed a feasibility study, with a resource estimate of 10.1 million tons containing 22.9 tons of gold, 438.2 tons of silver, 20.8 million tons of copper, 25.5 million tons of zinc, and 2.3 million tons of lead [1] Group 3 - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Build Back Better" legislation is believed to be a key driver for the rise in copper prices [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell below 97, with a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [2] - Goldman Sachs now anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement three rate cuts of 25 basis points starting September 2025, compared to a previous forecast of only one cut in December [2]