市场分析 新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 供需数据变化不大，工业硅多晶硅宽幅震荡运行 工业硅：商品情绪回落，工业硅盘面偏弱运行 价格：9月26日当周，本周工业硅期货高开低走。现货方面，市场供需变化不大，工业硅现货成交价格继续小幅上 涨。据SMM统计。截至9月25日，SMM华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600元/吨，周环比上涨150元/吨，441#硅在9600-9800 元/吨，周环比上涨100元/吨，3303#硅在10500-10600元/吨，周环比上涨100元/吨。 供应：本周供应端变化不大，周度产量持平，根据SMM统计，样本厂家周度产量5.82万吨，环比持平。目前金属 硅总炉数 796 台，本周金属硅开炉数量与上周相比减少 1 台，截至 9月 25 日，中国金属硅开工炉数 310 台，整 体开炉率 38.94%。 需求：下游铝合金方面，整体产能利用率小幅回落，根据百川统计，本周铝板带箔产量 209335 吨，产量较上周减 少。铝棒产量 294525 吨，产量较上周减少约 210 吨。有机硅方面，本周开工率在 71.2%，本周浙江，山东，河 北装置维持降负生产，华东地区另有装置因突发事故进 ...

Group 1 - DMC prices have decreased this week, while most lithium raw materials and cobalt product prices have increased [1] - The photovoltaic price index remained stable compared to last week, with polysilicon, components, battery cells, and silicon wafer price indices unchanged [1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of solar power generation capacity in China from January to June has narrowed [1] Group 2 - The rolling year-on-year growth rate of automobile production and sales has expanded in July [1] - The rolling four-week average year-on-year growth rate of cargo throughput and container throughput at Chinese ports has increased [1] - The CCFI has declined, while CCBFI, BDI, and BDTI have risen [1] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" competition and industry self-discipline production restrictions have led to price increases in various sectors, including coking coal, battery cells, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and glass [1] - Steel and some chemical product prices have rebounded due to improved profitability and cost support [1] - The overall expectation of industry clearing has driven the rebound in prices of black and non-ferrous commodities, which is a key factor in stopping the decline of PPI [1] Group 4 - The semiconductor sector has seen an increase in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index [2] - DDR5 DRAM memory prices and NAND index have risen week-on-week, while DRAM index has also increased [2] - The revenue performance of electronic manufacturers in Taiwan has shown divergence in July [2] Group 5 - The average transaction volume of construction steel has decreased over the past ten days, while rebar prices have increased [3] - The price of coal has risen, with Qinhuangdao mixed coal prices increasing, while the price of Shanxi coking coal has decreased [3] - The national cement price index has declined [3] Group 6 - The net absorption in the money market has been observed [3] - The turnover rate and daily transaction volume of A-shares have increased [3] - The transaction area of commercial housing has decreased, along with the listing volume and price index of second-hand houses [3] Group 7 - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China has decreased, along with the futures price of natural gas in the UK [3] - The average daily power generation of key power plants in China has shown an expanding year-on-year growth rate over the past 12 weeks [3]

Group 1 - A significant rumor in the silicon material industry suggests that six companies, including GCL-Poly Energy (03800.HK) and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), are planning to establish a large fund of 70 billion yuan to acquire and integrate silicon material production capacity [2][4] - The authenticity of the rumor remains unverified, with industry insiders indicating that it is still in a discussion phase and lacks concrete details [2][4] - There are indications that the six companies have begun joint operations to formulate a plan within three months, aiming to raise silicon material prices to 60,000 yuan per ton [3][4] Group 2 - The silicon material market has experienced a continuous decline in prices for five weeks, attributed to high inventory levels and a rapid drop in downstream product prices [5][6] - Current market conditions show that the production capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased to a range of 30% to 40%, with some companies planning to reduce production further [6][7] - The overall supply of silicon material is currently exceeding demand, with an estimated production capacity of around 3 million tons against a demand of approximately 2 million tons [6][7] Group 3 - The silicon material industry is facing severe losses, with major companies collectively reporting losses exceeding 18.4 billion yuan last year due to supply-demand imbalances and intense competition [7] - Recommendations for addressing the industry's challenges include strict adherence to production limits, collaboration between upstream and downstream companies, and participation in capacity replacement plans to eliminate outdated production capacity [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price is weakly stable, and the futures market rebounds after a decline, mainly influenced by macro - sentiment. The supply side has cost pressure and some production cuts, but raw material prices are falling. The demand side is weak, and the cost support is further weakened. The total industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are relatively high [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures market continues to repair upward, and the spot market price stabilizes with some increases. Under the background of industry self - restricted production, polysilicon production remains low, inventory is falling, and there is a possibility of further production cuts. The demand side also shows signs of weakness, and the number of warehouse receipts is low [3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On May 12, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rebounded after a decline. The main contract 2506 opened at 8275 yuan/ton and closed at 8320 yuan/ton, a change of 0.24% from the previous settlement. The main contract 2505 had a position of 171,625 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 12 was 67,097 lots, a decrease of 241 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. The prices of various grades of silicon have decreased. The silicon coal prices in major production areas such as Xinjiang, Gansu, Ningxia, and Shaanxi have dropped, weakening the cost support [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The organic silicon DMC quotation is 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The recent trading volume is average, and manufacturers have high inventory pressure, so they lower the price to accept orders [2]. - **Strategy**: For industrial silicon, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Data**: On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to repair upward, opening at 38,100 yuan/ton and closing at 38,450 yuan/ton, a 2.49% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 69,417 lots, and the trading volume was 322,808 lots [3]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable. The prices of various types of polysilicon remain unchanged. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers has decreased, and the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers has also declined [5]. - **Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components**: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are provided, and most of them remain stable [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, under industry self - restriction, polysilicon production remains low, and inventory is falling. On the demand side, the battery production rate and total output of Chinese enterprises in April and May are given, and some photovoltaic component enterprises have plans to further reduce production [7]. - **Strategy**: For polysilicon, the short - term strategy for the 2506 contract is to be cautiously bullish [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are in a downward trend. The supply in the northwest region remains relatively high, and the demand is weak. The industry is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures price hit a new low, while the spot price remained stable. There is a game between production cuts by polysilicon enterprises to support prices and weak demand. The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit a new low. The main contract 2506 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8290 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 182,782 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on May 8 was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 244 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9900 - 10300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption of organic silicon DMC was stable, with a quotation of 11300 - 11800 yuan/ton. The overall operating capacity of domestic monomers decreased due to the resumption of some plants in East and North China and the maintenance of an 800,000 - ton plant in the northwest [1]. Strategy - The industry's total inventory pressure is relatively high, and the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly. For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 36,670 yuan/ton and closing at 35,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 63,290 lots, and the trading volume was 135,166 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; the price of dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 20.62GW (with a month - on - month change of 5.58%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.29GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - In May, the polysilicon output decreased by about 0.2 million tons month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output decreased by about 4GW month - on - month. Some enterprises have new production capacity investment expectations in May, and the registration of warehouse receipts has started [6]. Strategy - The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games. Investors can choose to build long positions opportunistically. If the rebound is significant, upstream enterprises can sell hedging [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry has been significantly sanctioned before 2023, with a substantial reduction in export volume. Subsequently, it is indirectly affected, and the market sentiment may fluctuate in the short term. The leading companies such as Tongwei Co., Ltd. have announced phased production cuts and maintenance, and the industry's self - disciplined production limitation is ongoing, but the overall production cut intensity is not obvious. On the demand side, currently it is the peak consumption season for the domestic photovoltaic industry. The demand for distributed installation has driven the price increase and inventory reduction of downstream products in the photovoltaic industry chain. However, due to the high inventory of polysilicon, the inventory clearance speed is relatively slow. The polysilicon price is stable today, and there is a stalemate in price negotiation during the order - signing period. It is recommended to take a light - short position in the polysilicon main contract during the day, and a light - short position can be attempted near 43,700, with a stop - loss price of 44,000. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main contract closing price of polysilicon is 43,265 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 33,190 lots, up 1,788 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 680 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,715 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 34 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of polysilicon is - 1,265 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.98 US dollars/kg, down 0.03 US dollars/kg [2] Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 9,550 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,650 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 289,350 tons, down 16,450 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 608,000 tons, up 4,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 90,000 tons, down 22,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 3,128 tons, up 812 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.29 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 6.7001 million kilowatts, down 113,700 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 71,334,590 pieces, down 24,503,790 pieces; the monthly import volume is 11,968,380 pieces, up 4,161,000 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.26 US dollars/piece, down 0.01 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 23.53, unchanged [2] Industry News - Since 2012, the US has imposed high anti - dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese photovoltaic products. With the 201 and 301 tariffs, the comprehensive tax rate has exceeded 100%. Direct exports of Chinese photovoltaic products to the US are rare. In April 2025, the US announced a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners and higher tariffs on multiple countries including China. The macro - situation shows that the US government's full - scale tariff collection with China at the top with 34% and China's counter - measures have little direct impact on the Chinese photovoltaic industry chain [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable. In the short - term, it's the peak consumption season for the domestic photovoltaic industry, and the demand for distributed installation drives the price increase and inventory reduction of downstream products in the photovoltaic industry chain. However, due to the high polysilicon inventory, the inventory reduction speed is relatively slow. It is recommended to take a short - position strategy for the polysilicon main contract on an intraday basis, and try a short - position at around 43,700 yuan/ton with a stop - loss price of 44,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of polysilicon is 43,680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton; the main contract position volume is 28,096 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,459 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 570 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,920 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 42,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average weekly price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 5.01 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg; the average price of polysilicon (re - feed material) is 34 yuan/kg, with no change. The basis of polysilicon is - 1,680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 120 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The main contract closing price of industrial silicon is 9,760 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 10,200 yuan/ton, with no change. The export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The industrial silicon output is 289,350 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,450 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 604,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 90,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 3,128 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 812 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.29 US dollars/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,190 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 67,001,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,137,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 71,334,590 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 24,503,790 units; the monthly import volume is 11,968,380 units, with a month - on - month increase of 4,161,000 units; the monthly average import price is 0.26 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 23.53, with no change [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of April 2, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type dense material, re - feed material, and N - type granular silicon are stable. A 7.9 - magnitude earthquake in Myanmar mainly affected Yunnan, a major industrial silicon production area, but due to weak polysilicon demand and low operating rates, there is currently no impact [2].