地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 1.国内商品期市收盘多数下跌，新能源材料跌幅居前，多晶硅跌停；航运期货、 贵金属、基本金属全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌 8.98%，铂金跌 6.72%，沪镍跌 6.14%。黑色系涨幅居前，焦煤涨 4.75%。 2.美油主力合约收涨 4.3%，报 58.4 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 4.57%，报 62.7 美元/桶。 3.国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.57%报 4487.90 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 1.19%报 76.69 美元/盎司。 4.伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME 期铝涨 0.15%报 3088.0 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 0.92% 报 3131.0 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 1.27%报 12702.0 美元/吨，LME 期铅跌 2.04%报 ...

新华财经上海12月10日电（记者郭慕清）12月9日，注册资本30亿元的北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司 完成注册，这标志着光伏行业酝酿已久的"多晶硅产能整合收购平台"正式落地。这一由国家六部委联合 指导、多家龙头骨干企业共同发起的产业治理创新，被业内视为破解光伏"内卷式"恶性竞争的关键一 役。 股东阵容亮相头部企业集结 中国经济信息社行业洞察产业数据服务平台显示，该平台十大股东涵盖光伏领域核心力量：通威光伏科 技（峨眉山）有限公司、协鑫科技咨询服务（苏州）有限公司、上海东方希望新能源科技有限公司、新 疆大全能源股份有限公司、新特能源股份有限公司、亚洲硅业（青海）股份有限公司、青海丽豪新能源 科技有限公司、北京中光同和能源科技有限公司、新疆戈恩能源科技有限公司、青海南玻能源科技有限 公司。 其中，通威光伏科技（峨眉山）有限公司持股30.35%，协鑫科技咨询服务（苏州）有限公司持股 16.79%，上海东方希望新能源科技有限公司、新特能源股份有限公司分别持股11.3%和11.13%，新疆大 全能源股份有限公司等其余6家企业合计持股30.43%。 更棘手的是，市场调节机制已短期失效——地方政府为保就业持续"输血"僵尸企业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes three main development lines during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period: the fourth industrial revolution led by AI, the construction of a new development pattern based on a new security framework, and the internal structural transformation of China [2][3][4]. - The first main line focuses on AI as a key driver of the fourth industrial revolution, with significant global attention and investment in AI technologies from major economies like the US and EU [3][4]. - The second main line addresses the need for a new development pattern in response to the changing global landscape and the strategic restructuring of economic globalization led by the US, which poses new challenges for China [4][5]. Group 2 - The third main line involves internal structural transformation, which includes three major tasks: adjusting demand structure, managing the relationship between emerging and traditional industries, and optimizing urban-rural structures [5][6]. - The adjustment of demand structure aims to enhance domestic consumption as a fundamental strategy to address overcapacity and economic downturns, requiring a long-term approach [5][8]. - The optimization of urban-rural structures necessitates significant breakthroughs in reducing disparities in social security and public services, particularly addressing the urbanization of approximately 300 million migrant workers [5][6]. Group 3 - Governance system reform is identified as the core to overcoming internal structural transformation challenges, emphasizing the need for government reform to modernize governance capabilities [6][7]. - The government should shift its focus from a rough assessment system based on industrialization and urbanization to a more refined management approach that prioritizes service industries and consumer welfare [7][8]. - Expanding domestic demand is crucial, with a focus on increasing consumption through income distribution reforms and innovative consumption scenarios, rather than relying solely on short-term stimulus [8][9]. Group 4 - The phenomenon of "involution" in industries like solar energy and electric vehicles has become a pressing issue, necessitating strategies to address overcapacity and avoid excessive competition [9][10]. - Differentiated strategies are required for managing overcapacity, with traditional industries facing potential shutdowns while new industries should be allowed to innovate and maintain competitive advantages [10][11]. - The government's "anti-involution" actions have transitioned from a slogan to a structured initiative, with regulatory measures being implemented to ensure fair competition and address the root causes of overcapacity [11][12].

Group 1 - China Tianrui Cement (01252) has seen its stock price increase by over 20%, currently trading at 0.455 HKD with a transaction volume of 24.79 million HKD [1] - The company has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit of between RMB 55 million to RMB 75 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net profit of approximately RMB 28.29 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to increased cement sales [1] - Tianfeng Securities believes that the governance against excessive competition will form a combination of "market + administration + law," and the cement industry has reached a consensus on the issue of overcapacity, providing strong support for profitability [1] Group 2 - Southwest Securities indicates that the continued demand for infrastructure and urban renewal, along with proactive supply-side adjustments, will support stable pricing in the industry [1] - The supply-side measures, including self-discipline in production, capacity replacement, tightening carbon emissions, and combating excessive competition, are expected to rebalance supply and demand, which will help stabilize cement prices [1] - The firm predicts that coal prices, which constitute the largest portion of cement clinker costs, will remain relatively low in 2025, leading to further reductions in cement clinker costs and a potential recovery in profitability for the cement and concrete industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Tianrui Cement (01252) has experienced a significant stock price increase of over 20%, currently trading at 0.455 HKD, driven by positive earnings expectations for the upcoming fiscal period [1] Company Summary - China Tianrui Cement anticipates a net profit of between RMB 55 million to RMB 75 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net profit of approximately RMB 28.29 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to increased cement sales [1] - The company has reported a trading volume of 24.79 million HKD, indicating strong market interest [1] Industry Summary - The cement industry is expected to benefit from a combination of market, administrative, and legal measures aimed at addressing overcapacity, with a consensus on the need for industry self-discipline [1] - Southwest Securities highlights that ongoing infrastructure demand and urban renewal needs, along with proactive supply-side measures, are supporting stable pricing and profitability in the industry [1] - The supply-side adjustments, including staggered production, capacity replacement, and stricter carbon emissions regulations, are likely to lead to a rebalancing of supply and demand, supporting a steady increase in cement prices [1] - Predictions indicate that coal prices, which constitute the largest portion of cement clinker costs, will remain relatively low, further reducing production costs and allowing for continued recovery in profitability for the cement and concrete sectors through 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Tianrui Cement (01252) has experienced a significant stock price increase of over 20%, attributed to a positive earnings forecast for the upcoming fiscal period, driven by increased cement sales [1] Company Summary - China Tianrui Cement anticipates a net profit of between RMB 55 million to RMB 75 million for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net profit of approximately RMB 28.29 million for the same period in 2024, primarily due to increased cement sales [1] - The stock price rose by 19.74% to HKD 0.455, with a trading volume of HKD 24.79 million [1] Industry Summary - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the ongoing governance against excessive competition will create a combination of market, administrative, and legal measures, leading to a consensus in the cement industry regarding overcapacity issues [1] - Southwest Securities notes that sustained infrastructure demand, urban renewal needs, and proactive supply-side adjustments are supporting stable pricing and profitability in the industry [1] - The supply-side measures, including self-discipline in production, capacity replacement, tightening carbon emissions, and anti-competitive actions, are expected to facilitate a rebalancing of supply and demand, supporting a steady increase in cement prices [1] - Predictions indicate that coal prices, which constitute the largest portion of cement clinker costs, will remain relatively low, further reducing cement production costs and allowing for continued recovery in profitability for the cement and concrete industries in 2025 [1]

Core Views - The article discusses the strategic direction and core pathways for China's economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the need to address structural challenges and leverage opportunities in a complex global environment [1] Group 1: Three Core Development Lines - The first core line is the Fourth Industrial Revolution, represented by artificial intelligence (AI), which is seen as a key area for innovation and industrial enhancement in the next five years [2] - The second core line focuses on constructing a new development pattern around a new security framework, addressing the challenges posed by the restructuring of global economic systems and the competitive landscape [3] - The third core line involves internal structural transformation, which includes adjusting demand structures, optimizing industrial structures, and improving urban-rural structures [4] Group 2: Internal Structural Transformation - Internal structural transformation requires enhancing governance systems and capabilities, with a focus on government reform and modernizing fiscal and tax systems [6] - Expanding domestic demand is crucial, with an emphasis on increasing consumption through income distribution reforms and innovative consumption scenarios [6][7] - Addressing "involution" in industries like solar energy and electric vehicles is necessary to manage overcapacity and ensure sustainable competition [8][9] Group 3: Governance and Policy Recommendations - The governance of overcapacity should adopt differentiated strategies for traditional and emerging industries, allowing for appropriate monopolistic practices in innovative sectors [9] - The "anti-involution" movement has transitioned from a slogan to a government-led initiative, with regulatory measures being implemented to address market imbalances and promote fair competition [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic direction and core pathways for China's economic and social development over the next five years, emphasizing the importance of addressing structural challenges and seizing strategic opportunities in a changing global landscape [3][4]. Group 1: Key Development Lines - The first core line of development is centered around the fourth technological and industrial revolution, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), which is seen as a critical area for innovation and industrial enhancement [4][5]. - The second core line involves constructing a new development pattern based on a new security framework, addressing the challenges posed by the restructuring of global economic systems and the competitive landscape [5][6]. - The third core line focuses on internal structural transformation, which includes adjusting demand structures, optimizing industrial structures, and improving urban-rural structures to achieve fundamental breakthroughs [6][7]. Group 2: Internal Structural Transformation - Internal structural transformation requires enhancing governance systems and capabilities, with a focus on government reform to modernize governance frameworks [7][8]. - Expanding domestic demand is crucial, with an emphasis on increasing consumption through income distribution reforms and innovative consumption scenarios [8][9]. - Addressing overcapacity in strategic emerging industries is essential, with a need for differentiated strategies to manage traditional and new industries effectively [10][11]. Group 3: Anti-Involution Measures - The phenomenon of "involution" is linked to insufficient demand and overcapacity, necessitating both regulatory measures and supply-demand balance adjustments [12]. - The government has initiated "anti-involution" actions, transitioning from industry-led to government-led efforts to regulate market order and prevent excessive competition [12]. - Recent legal reforms, including amendments to the Anti-Monopoly Law, aim to establish fair competition and prevent practices that lead to market distortions [12].