Core Insights - The U.S. real estate market is undergoing a structural shift, with supply increasing and demand slowing, leading to a cooling of home prices [1] - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index indicates that as of April, home prices nationwide rose only 2.7% year-over-year, the smallest increase in nearly two years, and down from 3.4% in March [1] - Instantaneous price tracking from Parcl Labs shows that home prices nationwide are nearly flat year-over-year, indicating a trend of price weakness [1] Price Trends - The slowdown in home prices is evident in both the 10-city and 20-city composite indices, which are significantly below recent peaks [1] - The annual increase in home prices for April was primarily driven by the spring selling season over the past six months, rather than balanced growth throughout the year, indicating a concentration of market momentum [1] Mortgage Rates and Buyer Behavior - High mortgage rates continue to deter many potential homebuyers, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate surpassing 7% in April, although it has slightly retreated, remaining at multi-year highs [1] - First-time homebuyers accounted for only 30% of overall sales in May, significantly below the historical average of 40%, highlighting the severe impact of high mortgage costs on this demographic [1] Supply Dynamics - The number of homes for sale has increased, but overall supply remains below pre-pandemic levels [2] - Approximately 6% of homeowners are at risk of selling at a loss, slightly higher than a year ago but still at a historical low [2] - The downward risk in the housing market is being supported by insufficient supply, as most existing homeowners are reluctant to give up low mortgage rates locked in during the pandemic [2]

今天是耶稣受难日，欧美股市全部放假，港股也休市，所以北上资金没法进来，市场的交易量，也跌破1万亿，到了9400亿左右，是0924行情以 来，单日成交量最低的一天。 昨天提到，可能就是未来1-2天，会放弃对上证指数的执着，上证至多停步在九连阳或者十连阳， 今天一语成谶了 ，上证指数果然最后时刻收 跌。 不过，收跌的场面，有点戏剧化——今天尾盘出现的时间，比昨天还早了几分钟，14点46分左右，沪深300率先翻红，过了5分钟后，上证指数同 步翻红，不过， 最后1分钟，上证指数一根直线下插下去，转跌 。 那么，问题就变成， 这是故意的，还是不小心的 ——是故意留个破绽，主动结束连胜，还是不小心被算计到了？ 这也是 至今为止，曹老师心里，最大的疑惑。 昨天，宽基ETF，一共净买入40亿出头，我们提到过，压缩尾盘的交易时间段，就是为了节省子弹，而净买入10亿以上的，也确实只有一只上证 50，和两只沪深300的ETF，明显是收着打的。 没想到， 一个锅盖盖两口锅，昨天漏了沪深300，今天漏了上证指数。 下图，看上证50ETF分时图的话，明显是多空博弈，最后10分钟，夹杂着大量的卖单，候着卖出，导致最后砸了下来。 不过，这样 ...