国家统计局发布的8月份数据显示，我国经济运行总体平稳，高质量发展扎实推进。但同时，外部环境 复杂严峻，不稳定不确定因素较多，国内市场供强需弱，部分企业经营困难。其中，国内有效需求不足 仍是制约当前经济发展的主要堵点，表现为居民消费能力和意愿不足，消费需求不振，有效投资增长偏 弱。 像抓生产一样抓消费，不是否定生产投资的重要性，而是要更好地处理投资与消费之间的关系。当前， 我国经济发展已步入主要靠内需拉动，且内需更加依靠扩大消费的阶段。扩大内需已是战略之举，提振 消费则是重中之重。抓消费，扩大国内有效需求，是实现经济内外平衡、供需均衡的关键所在。 为破解有效需求不足难题，近几年，从中央到地方出台了不少政策举措，也取得了显著成绩，但有效需 求迟迟不达预期。究其原因，消费作为经济中的慢变量，需要在社会分配、供给适配、民生保障、发展 预期等因素共同作用下，逐渐而持续地释放动力，不会一蹴而就。 生产和消费同处经济循环之中，抓消费完全可以借鉴抓生产的思路和经验。在抓生产方面，我们积累了 丰富的实践经验。我国用几十年走完发达国家几百年的工业化历程，建成了门类齐全、独立完整的现代 工业体系，制造业总体规模连续15年全球第一。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment towards the capital market, especially the stock market, is optimistic, with an emphasis on taking advantage of favorable conditions as they arise [4]. Group 1: Five Key Judgments - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, with all leading economic indicators showing upward trends for the first time in three years [5]. - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is also seen as coming to an end, with a stable funding environment expected to be negatively correlated with improving economic prospects [5]. - Preconditions for supply-demand balance have emerged, as investment growth in the upstream and midstream sectors has begun to decline [5]. - There is no simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds; instead, a rebalancing of stock and bond allocations is necessary, as the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has improved [5]. - The main logic for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been clearly triggered, with short-term appreciation likely needing further economic validation [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycle - The current economic situation is characterized by significant disparities in economic structure, making total data assessments somewhat misleading [10]. - The reliance on deposit indicators has increased, as the shift from precautionary savings to normal savings is crucial for understanding the economic cycle [10]. - Leading indicators such as old-caliber M1 and the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits are critical for predicting future economic performance [14][15]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The shift from precautionary to normal savings among residents is expected to influence monetary policy and market stability [22]. - The relationship between old-caliber M1 and R007 indicates that as the economy improves, funding volatility is likely to increase, posing challenges for bonds [24]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Historical experiences suggest that a decline in supply is a crucial precondition for price stabilization [27]. - The current situation shows that upstream supply is outpacing demand, particularly in raw materials, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [29]. - The midstream sector is also experiencing an accumulation of production capacity, which has led to a downward price trend [30]. Group 5: Stock-Bond Dynamics - The analysis indicates that there is likely no simultaneous bull market in stocks and bonds, but rather a reversal in their relationship [32]. - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference has been declining, suggesting that bonds have had a comparative advantage over stocks [33]. - The anticipated reversal in asset allocation is expected to occur slightly ahead of the economic cycle, with policy interventions playing a significant role [39]. Group 6: Currency and Macro Trends - The main chain for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been triggered, with historical patterns indicating that PMI improvements are necessary for such a shift [44][45]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for the next six months, with stable overseas demand and improved U.S.-China relations contributing to market stability [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term. The market for these commodities shows a pattern of strong supply - demand dynamics, but is also subject to various influencing factors such as policies, production capacity, and profit margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar continued to rise significantly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 113 (-33) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Steel Union's statistics, the recent apparent demand for rebar decreased by 153,300 tons month - on - month, production decreased by 76,000 tons, and inventory increased by 28,900 tons. The contradiction in the off - season demand is not obvious, and supply and demand remain relatively balanced [1]. - **Outlook**: The futures price of rebar has risen to near the cost of electric arc furnaces at flat electricity prices, and the static valuation has been restored to a neutral level. In terms of driving factors, macroscopically, attention should be paid to whether there are relevant policy signals at the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Industrially, the current supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of iron ore rose significantly. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton (+13). The Platts 62% index was 104.85 US dollars/ton (+1.90), with a monthly average of 97.91 US dollars/ton. The basis of PBF was 22 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.479 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.3. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22.60737 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 138.16. The daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63. The supply side has not changed significantly, while the demand side is relatively strong [1]. - **Outlook**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the tariff truce period may be further extended. The futures price is starting to recover to the level before the friction. With the increasing policy expectations for the end - of - month meeting, the iron ore futures price has reached a new high in stages. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias [1]. 3.3. Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas are restricted by accidents and underground conditions, and the production release rhythm is still slow. The overall supply recovery process of coking coal has not met expectations. In terms of imports, driven by the sharp rise in the domestic futures market, Mongolian coal traders are optimistic, and the prices of mainstream coal types such as Mongolian 5 raw coal have risen significantly [3]. - **Demand**: The second round of coke price increases has been implemented, and with macro - level positive stimuli, the futures market of the black series has risen sharply. Coke enterprises and traders are actively transporting, and coal mine sales are generally smooth. Steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand remains strong. However, downstream enterprises are a bit cautious about purchasing high - priced coal, and the inventory - increasing rhythm is still restricted to some extent [3]. - **Port Situation**: Affected by the policy documents from the production areas and the futures limit - up, the market sentiment is high. Futures - cash combined traders have mostly suspended quoting prices and are holding back goods [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The supply side recovers slowly, and the demand side is driven by coke price increases and improved profits of finished products. The short - term price support is strong. Attention should be paid to the coal mine复产 progress, the sustainability of coke price increases, and the steel mills' profit situation [3]. 3.4. Coke - **Supply**: Recently, coke enterprises in the production areas have successively launched a second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in the black - series futures market, the price of coking coal has also risen, and the immediate cost of coke enterprises has increased significantly. However, the rise of coke prices lags behind, resulting in a continuous compression of the profit margins of most coke enterprises, and some are in a state of inversion. There may be a further reduction in production in the future [3]. - **Demand**: With the continuous rise of steel prices, steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand for coke remains strong. However, steel mills in the southwest region are affected by the sales pressure of finished products, with weak terminal demand and narrow profit margins. Some enterprises may even face losses and may have maintenance plans in the future [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coke market shows obvious supply - demand game characteristics. The supply side is restricted by cost squeeze and profit inversion, and the demand side has different acceptance levels for price increases due to regional differentiation and profit limitations. In the short term, the implementation rhythm of the second - round price increase may be affected by the steel mills' profit repair progress and regional demand differentiation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of coke enterprises' production, the sustainability of steel mills' profit improvement, and the terminal demand for steel [3]. 3.5. Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.4245 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 315,000 tons. The inventory has increased for three consecutive periods and has reached the peak since the beginning of the year [6]. - In June 2025, the total energy consumption of member enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association decreased by 3.57% year - on - year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.82% year - on - year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.96% year - on - year; and the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.27% year - on - year [6]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the domestic sales production plan was 651,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%; the export production plan was 464,500 units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% [6]. - On July 22nd, a notice about "coal mine production verification" circulated in the market. The Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration has issued a notice to organize a verification of coal mine production in eight provinces (regions) including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable and orderly coal supply. The content of the notice is true, but the start time of the verification is uncertain [6]. - The hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is expected to have an installed capacity 2.7 times that of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station. It is estimated that the cement demand will be more than 40 million tons and the sand and gravel aggregate demand will be about 150 million tons [6].

Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The current fluctuations in oil prices are attributed to a threefold soft power resonance: improved demand expectations from trade policy, concerns over OPEC's supply management failures due to production increases, and structural premiums caused by regional supply chain disruptions [3][4] - Oil prices are transitioning from "policy-driven volatility" to "supply-demand led equilibrium," but uncertainties surrounding the July 9 tariff deadline and the OPEC meeting will maintain a volatile price range between $65 and $70 per barrel [3][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - On the demand side, the summer driving season and a decrease in distillate oil inventories provide seasonal support, while Saudi Arabia may raise its August Official Selling Price (OSP) to further enhance demand [4] - On the supply side, OPEC's potential increase of 411,000 barrels per day contrasts sharply with Mexico's record low exports of 529,000 barrels per day, creating a supply dilemma [2][4] - The U.S. API reported an unexpected increase in crude oil inventories by 680,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories rose by 1.92 million barrels, indicating a divergence in inventory trends amid strong seasonal consumption [2][4] Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - Mexico's oil production has plummeted to levels not seen since the late 1970s, threatening U.S. refiners, particularly during the peak summer driving season [2][4] - The expansion of Mexico's largest refinery, Dos Bocas, is contributing to a contraction in oil exports, leading to a regional supply crisis [4]