Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term. The market for these commodities shows a pattern of strong supply - demand dynamics, but is also subject to various influencing factors such as policies, production capacity, and profit margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar continued to rise significantly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 113 (-33) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Steel Union's statistics, the recent apparent demand for rebar decreased by 153,300 tons month - on - month, production decreased by 76,000 tons, and inventory increased by 28,900 tons. The contradiction in the off - season demand is not obvious, and supply and demand remain relatively balanced [1]. - **Outlook**: The futures price of rebar has risen to near the cost of electric arc furnaces at flat electricity prices, and the static valuation has been restored to a neutral level. In terms of driving factors, macroscopically, attention should be paid to whether there are relevant policy signals at the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Industrially, the current supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of iron ore rose significantly. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton (+13). The Platts 62% index was 104.85 US dollars/ton (+1.90), with a monthly average of 97.91 US dollars/ton. The basis of PBF was 22 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.479 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.3. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22.60737 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 138.16. The daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63. The supply side has not changed significantly, while the demand side is relatively strong [1]. - **Outlook**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the tariff truce period may be further extended. The futures price is starting to recover to the level before the friction. With the increasing policy expectations for the end - of - month meeting, the iron ore futures price has reached a new high in stages. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias [1]. 3.3. Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas are restricted by accidents and underground conditions, and the production release rhythm is still slow. The overall supply recovery process of coking coal has not met expectations. In terms of imports, driven by the sharp rise in the domestic futures market, Mongolian coal traders are optimistic, and the prices of mainstream coal types such as Mongolian 5 raw coal have risen significantly [3]. - **Demand**: The second round of coke price increases has been implemented, and with macro - level positive stimuli, the futures market of the black series has risen sharply. Coke enterprises and traders are actively transporting, and coal mine sales are generally smooth. Steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand remains strong. However, downstream enterprises are a bit cautious about purchasing high - priced coal, and the inventory - increasing rhythm is still restricted to some extent [3]. - **Port Situation**: Affected by the policy documents from the production areas and the futures limit - up, the market sentiment is high. Futures - cash combined traders have mostly suspended quoting prices and are holding back goods [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The supply side recovers slowly, and the demand side is driven by coke price increases and improved profits of finished products. The short - term price support is strong. Attention should be paid to the coal mine复产 progress, the sustainability of coke price increases, and the steel mills' profit situation [3]. 3.4. Coke - **Supply**: Recently, coke enterprises in the production areas have successively launched a second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in the black - series futures market, the price of coking coal has also risen, and the immediate cost of coke enterprises has increased significantly. However, the rise of coke prices lags behind, resulting in a continuous compression of the profit margins of most coke enterprises, and some are in a state of inversion. There may be a further reduction in production in the future [3]. - **Demand**: With the continuous rise of steel prices, steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand for coke remains strong. However, steel mills in the southwest region are affected by the sales pressure of finished products, with weak terminal demand and narrow profit margins. Some enterprises may even face losses and may have maintenance plans in the future [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coke market shows obvious supply - demand game characteristics. The supply side is restricted by cost squeeze and profit inversion, and the demand side has different acceptance levels for price increases due to regional differentiation and profit limitations. In the short term, the implementation rhythm of the second - round price increase may be affected by the steel mills' profit repair progress and regional demand differentiation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of coke enterprises' production, the sustainability of steel mills' profit improvement, and the terminal demand for steel [3]. 3.5. Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.4245 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 315,000 tons. The inventory has increased for three consecutive periods and has reached the peak since the beginning of the year [6]. - In June 2025, the total energy consumption of member enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association decreased by 3.57% year - on - year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.82% year - on - year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.96% year - on - year; and the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.27% year - on - year [6]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the domestic sales production plan was 651,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%; the export production plan was 464,500 units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% [6]. - On July 22nd, a notice about "coal mine production verification" circulated in the market. The Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration has issued a notice to organize a verification of coal mine production in eight provinces (regions) including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable and orderly coal supply. The content of the notice is true, but the start time of the verification is uncertain [6]. - The hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is expected to have an installed capacity 2.7 times that of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station. It is estimated that the cement demand will be more than 40 million tons and the sand and gravel aggregate demand will be about 150 million tons [6].

邓正红软实力表示，市场乐观预期美国与贸易伙伴进行贸易谈判进展，却担忧欧佩克联盟将在7月6日会议上宣布8月每日增产41.1万桶的计划，部分抵消贸 易协议改善需求前景，石油软实力保持需求端的价值牵引，周二（7月1日）国际油价小幅走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油8月期 货结算价每桶涨0.34美元至65. 45美元，涨幅0.52%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油9月期货结算价每桶涨0.37美元至67.11美元，涨幅0.55%。投资者关注美国总 统特朗普设定的7月9日关税截止日期前的贸易谈判。美国财政部长斯科特•贝森特警告称，尽管谈判秉持诚意，但随着7月9日最后期限临近，各国可能被告 知关税大幅上调——届时税率计划从临时性的10%恢复至特朗普4月2日宣布的11%至50%暂缓税率。 供需软实力结构性博弈。需求侧韧性：夏季驾驶旺季与馏分油库存下降（API数据减少345.8万桶）形成季节性支撑，沙特可能上调8月OSP价格进一步强化 需求端价值牵引。供给侧矛盾：欧佩克潜在增产（每日41.1万桶）与墨西哥出口锐减（每日52.9万桶创历史新低）形成抵消，哈萨克斯坦产量创新高（每日 188万桶）加剧供应治理困境。这种" ...