化工板块今日（12月30日）重拾攻势！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘低开后震荡拉 升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到2.56%，截至收盘，涨1.98%，收盘价续创2022年9月以来新高。 成份股方面，石化、涤纶、磷化工、锂电等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，恒逸石化涨停，新凤 鸣、荣盛石化双双大涨超7%，恒力石化涨超6%，金发科技、云天化、天赐材料等亦涨幅居前。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | | F9 盘前盘后 盛加 九菲 图线 工具 份 O | | > | 4. TETF O | | | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.88 | | | | 516020(化工ETF] 14:15 价 0.877 滚跌 0.017(1.98%) 均价 0.870 周交量 2541 1. | | | | | 0.877 | | | +0.017 +1.98% | | | 0.871 | | | | Ac. ...

来源：金十数据 国外 1. 瑞银：上调黄金价格预期，明年有望升至5000美元 瑞银周一将其2026年前三季度的黄金目标价上调至每盎司5000美元，并预计到2026年底，金价将回落至 每盎司4800美元，高于此前预测的每盎司4300美元。该行预计，在实际收益率较低、全球经济担忧持续 存在以及美国国内政策不确定性（尤其是与中期选举和财政压力上升有关）的支撑下，黄金需求在2026 年将稳步上升。瑞银在报告中称："如果政治或金融风险增加，金价可能会攀升至5400美元/盎司（之前 预期为4900美元/盎司）。" 2. HDFC证券：金银处于超买区域，价格将面临进一步的修正压力 在周一高度波动的交易中，现货白银跌幅一度扩大至8%，现货黄金回落至4400美元/盎司下方，HDFC 证券大宗商品高级分析师Saumil Gandhi表示，"黄金和白银价格周一从纪录高位回落，因交易商在创纪 录的涨势后获利了结。"Gandhi进一步指出，黄金和白银在更高的时间周期内都处于超买区域，这是一 个谨慎的信号，表明在涨势延续前需要进行健康回调。他表示："我们预计，随着投资者在月底和年底 调整和重新平衡头寸，金价将面临进一步的修正压力。" 3 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a synchronized improvement in CPI and PPI, indicating positive structural changes in China's price dynamics [1][2] - CPI year-on-year is at -0.3%, but core CPI has risen for five consecutive months, reaching a growth rate of 1%, marking the first return to this level in 19 months [1] - PPI year-on-year is at -2.3%, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months, reflecting a recovery in prices from the purchasing to the factory level in the industrial sector [1] Group 2 - The structure of CPI shows a steady recovery in industrial consumer goods and some service prices, signaling an optimization of market competition and effective governance [1][2] - Service prices maintain a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with significant growth in healthcare and household services, indicating the dual effects of consumption upgrades and policy guidance [2] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to substantial enhancements in supply-demand structures across multiple industries, particularly in traditional sectors like coal and steel [2][3] Group 3 - The positive effects of order optimization are extending from traditional industries to emerging sectors, with significant narrowing of price declines in photovoltaic equipment and new energy battery manufacturing [3] - The newly revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law aims to address challenges in the digital economy and provides a legal basis for curbing "involutionary" competition [3][4] - The law prohibits platform operators from forcing or indirectly compelling sellers to sell below cost, empowering regulatory authorities to address disruptive pricing behaviors [3][4] Group 4 - The implementation of the new law is expected to systematically optimize market competition rules, shifting the focus from price wars to value wars among enterprises [4] - This shift encourages companies to invest in technological innovation, quality enhancement, and service optimization, fostering a healthier market environment [4] - The changes are anticipated to lead to a more rational, healthy, and sustainable development path for the Chinese market, benefiting both businesses and consumers [4]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable month-on-month for two consecutive months, indicating a stabilization in prices across various industries driven by improved supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.3%, but the decline was less severe than the previous month, reflecting the positive impact of macroeconomic policies and structural adjustments in certain industries [2] Group 1: Month-on-Month PPI Analysis - The PPI showed notable month-on-month price increases in coal processing (up 3.8%), coal mining and washing (up 2.5%), and black metal smelting and rolling (up 0.2%), all of which have risen for two consecutive months [1] - Prices for photovoltaic equipment and components shifted from a decrease of 0.2% last month to an increase of 0.8% this month, indicating a recovery in this sector [1] - Conversely, prices in the petroleum-related industries declined due to falling international oil prices, with oil extraction prices down 2.7% and refined petroleum product manufacturing prices down 1.5% [1] Group 2: Year-on-Year PPI Trends - The year-on-year decline in PPI was influenced by a lower comparison base from the previous year, with several industries showing reduced price declines, including coal processing and black metal smelting [2] - The construction of a unified national market has led to improved price stability in various sectors, with significant reductions in price declines for coal processing (down 8.3%), black metal smelting (down 3.4%), and coal mining (down 3.0%) [2] - Upgrades in industrial structure and the release of consumer potential have resulted in price increases in specific sectors, such as aircraft manufacturing (up 1.4%) and electronic materials (up 1.2%) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to improve, showing a mild recovery from low levels [1] - A series of incremental and stock policies are expected to work synergistically, particularly the gradual implementation of policies to address "involution" competition, which will promote continuous improvement in supply and demand structure [1] - The potential for service consumption is increasingly evident, which will contribute to price increases in sectors such as catering, accommodation, domestic services, elderly care, cultural tourism, and health services [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Eastern Airlines reported a net loss of 4.226 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year reduction in losses by 48.4%, aligning with the lower end of its earnings forecast [1] Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for 2024 reached 132.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.11%, with passenger revenue increasing by 16.2% and cargo revenue by 46.7% [3] - The company recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of 4.798 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction in losses by 44.44% [1] - The unit cost of ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) was 0.42 yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while the unit cost excluding fuel decreased by 6% [3] Operational Data - Overall ASK increased by 9.9% compared to 2019 and by 21.2% compared to 2023, while overall RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) rose by 11.0% compared to 2019 and by 34.9% compared to 2023 [1] - Domestic ASK recovered to 117.9% of the 2019 level, with domestic RPK at 119.1% of 2019, and domestic passenger volume at 109.9% of 2019 [1] - International ASK reached 95.3% of the 2019 level, with international RPK at 95.8% of 2019, and international passenger volume at 97.8% of 2019 [1] Fleet and Aircraft Delivery - In 2024, the company delivered 35 aircraft and retired 13, resulting in a fleet size of 804 aircraft, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The company plans to net add 34, 51, and 28 aircraft in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating future fleet growth rates of 4.2%, 6.1%, and 3.1% [2] Investment Analysis - Due to stable market demand and declining ticket prices, the 2025 domestic passenger kilometer revenue growth assumption has been adjusted to 1% from the original 3% [4] - The earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down to 2.935 billion yuan and 5.735 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 8.895 billion yuan [4] - The current market valuation corresponds to a 2027 earnings forecast PE of 9X, which remains below the historical valuation average of the three major airlines, maintaining an "overweight" rating [4]