债券基金久期测算 利率敏感度解码 久期是衡量债券价值对利率变动敏感性的近似指标。更准确地说，它是对于 利率变动 100 个基点时价值变化的近似百分比，这一数值决定了其利率风险 暴露程度。 久期也可以被当作是一种时间度量。久期（Duration）由弗雷德里克·麦考 利于 1938 年提出，他把久期作为未偿付债券的一种时间度量标准，通过加 权计算债券现金流的回收时间，量化债券价格对利率变动的敏感性。简单来 说，久期反映了债券价格相对于利率变化的弹性。久期越长，债券价格对利 率变动就越敏感；反之，久期越短，债券价格对利率变动的敏感度就越低。 业内人士使用久期的一种形式是修正久期（Modified Durarion）。修正久 期是在收益率改变时债券的预期现金流不变的假设下，收益率变动 100 个基 点时，债券价格变动的近似百分比。 观测债券基金久期有助于投资者评估债券基金的风险。测算债券基金的久 期，我们就可以估计这只基金的风险收益特征，包括年化收益率以及遭遇利 率波动时的净值变化。在利率波动较大的市场环境中，久期较长的债券基金 面临的价格波动风险相对较大；而久期较短的债券基金则相对较为稳定。目 前市场上主流的债券基 ...

久期也可以被当作是一种时间度量。久期（Duration）由弗雷德里克·麦考 利于 1938 年提出，他把久期作为未偿付债券的一种时间度量标准，通过加 权计算债券现金流的回收时间，量化债券价格对利率变动的敏感性。简单来 说，久期反映了债券价格相对于利率变化的弹性。久期越长，债券价格对利 率变动就越敏感；反之，久期越短，债券价格对利率变动的敏感度就越低。 业内人士使用久期的一种形式是修正久期（Modified Durarion）。修正久 期是在收益率改变时债券的预期现金流不变的假设下，收益率变动 100 个基 点时，债券价格变动的近似百分比。 观测债券基金久期有助于投资者评估债券基金的风险。测算债券基金的久 期，我们就可以估计这只基金的风险收益特征，包括年化收益率以及遭遇利 率波动时的净值变化。在利率波动较大的市场环境中，久期较长的债券基金 面临的价格波动风险相对较大；而久期较短的债券基金则相对较为稳定。目 前市场上主流的债券基金久期测算方法主要包括重仓券加权法、利率敏感度 法和资产组合法，在高频测算场景下，资产组合法是目前最主流且综合性能 最优的方法，其核心优势体现在数据频率（日/周频）与动态调整能力的结 合。 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.82%. The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds increased by 0.24% to 87.45%. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, and that of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, and that of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years [4]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Fund Stock Position Calculation - The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds has shown a volatile trend recently. This week, it increased by 0.24% to 87.45%, 0.77% lower than the quarterly report. Active equity funds' position rose by 0.31% to 89.55%, and partial - equity hybrid funds' position rose by 0.23% to 86.96% [7]. - The overall increase or decrease in positions of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week was mostly concentrated in [0%, 1%] (766 funds), followed by [-1%, 0%] (171 funds). Funds with sizes below 20 billion, between 20 - 50 billion, and 50 - 80 billion slightly increased their positions, while other - sized funds slightly reduced their positions [11]. - In terms of fund holding styles, growth stocks accounted for a higher proportion in fund holdings. This week, value stocks were slightly reduced, and growth stocks were slightly increased. The proportion of small - cap stocks in fund holdings was relatively high. This week, large - cap and mid - cap stocks were slightly increased, and small - cap stocks were slightly reduced [15]. - The top 5 industries held by active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week were electronics (13.65%), power equipment (8.70%), pharmaceutical biology (7.16%), automobiles (6.54%), and machinery (5.37%). The top 3 industries with increased positions were communication (+0.36%), building materials (+0.20%), and non - ferrous metals (+0.12%); the top 3 industries with reduced positions were comprehensive (-0.21%), national defense and military industry (-0.19%), and pharmaceutical biology (-0.15%) [18]. 2.2 Bond Fund Duration Calculation - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 10 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 3bps. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds rose by 0.26 to 3.31 years, at the 99.40% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 3.26 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.69 years. The median duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years. The median duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, with 7% of actively operated funds and 24% of conservatively operated funds; the median duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, with 55% of actively operated funds and 4% of conservatively operated funds [21]. - The median estimated duration of credit bond funds rose by 0.21 to 2.89 years, at the 100.00% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 2.78 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.06 to 1.25 years. The median estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds rose by 0.28 to 4.87 years, at the 99.20% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 5.00 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.10 to 1.84 years [23]. - This week, the estimated duration of credit bond funds was concentrated in [2.5, 3) (167 funds), followed by [3, 3.5) (126 funds). The estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds was concentrated in [5,) (159 funds), followed by [4.5, 5) (54 funds) [28]. - Among credit bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations (above the 80% percentile of their own duration in the past year) this week was 6.62%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations (below the 20% percentile of their own duration in the past year) was 24.39%. Among interest - rate bond funds, the proportion of funds with active duration operations was 55.17%, and the proportion of funds with conservative duration operations was 4.02% [29]. - This week, the yield to maturity of China Bond's 1 - year China Development Bank bonds rose by 5bps. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds rose by 0.30 to 1.16 years, at the 99.70% percentile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 1.16 years. The duration divergence increased, and the standard deviation of the estimated duration rose by 0.11 to 0.48 years. The estimated duration of passive policy - bank bond funds decreased by 0.12 to 3.65 years [33].