1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The monetary policy has added the statement of "continuous efforts and timely intensification", emphasizing counter - cyclical adjustment, maintaining ample liquidity and reducing social financing costs. The economic data in July and August were lower than expected. From January to August 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from decline to an increase of 0.9% year - on - year, with the single - month profit growth rate in August soaring to 20.4%. The consumer side showed differentiation this week, indicating cautious consumer sentiment. Against the backdrop of economic pressure, there are still expectations of monetary policy easing. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward, and the 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [2][10][80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Meeting**: The third - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee in 2025 added "continuous efforts and timely intensification" to the overall description of monetary policy. It removed "more risk hidden dangers" in the domestic economic description and "continuous" from the description of prices. The new statement "implement and refine the moderately loose monetary policy" was added, and "deepening the structural reform of the financial supply - side" was removed [12]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year - on - year decline of 1.7% to an increase of 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded significantly to 20.4%, driven by policy effects, low - base support, and industry structure optimization. However, nearly half of the industries still had negative year - on - year profit growth [18][19]. - **US Tariff and PCE Data**: The US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products starting from October 1. The US PCE price index in August increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in October rose above 80% [4][22]. 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data - **Consumption**: As of September 21, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 9.4% and 5.8% year - on - year respectively. As of September 19, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 10.2% year - on - year, while the total retail sales decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [24][28]. - **Transportation**: As of September 21, the weekly container throughput at ports increased by 12.9% year - on - year, postal express pick - up volume increased by 19.4% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic increased by 20.7% year - on - year. As of September 27, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [34][39][41]. - **Industrial Operating Rates**: As of September 24, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points year - on - year. As of September 25, the average asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 7.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year [44][46]. - **Real Estate**: As of September 27, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 3.6% year - on - year. As of September 19, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities increased by 78.4% year - on - year [51][53]. - **Prices**: As of September 26, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 25.0% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.2% year - on - year and increased by 2.6% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 7.5% year - on - year and 1.9% compared with 4 weeks ago, while the average spot price of iron ore increased by 8.4% year - on - year and 2.4% compared with 4 weeks ago [54][60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - **Short - term Interest Rates**: On September 28, the overnight Shibor was 1.31%, down 9.90BP from September 23. On September 26, R001, DR001, and IBO001 decreased, while R007, DR007, and IBO007 increased compared with September 22 [63]. - **Bond Yields**: On September 26, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.39%/1.62%/1.88%/2.22% respectively, with changes of flat/+0.5BP/+0.3BP/+1.8BP compared with September 19. The yields of China Development Bank bonds and local government bonds also showed different changes [68][70]. - **Foreign Exchange**: On September 26, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.12/7.13, up 24/220 pips compared with September 19 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior The median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds estimated on September 26 was about 4.5 years, down about 0.04 years from last week. The median and average durations of medium - and long - term credit bond funds estimated on September 26 were about 2.9 years, down about 0.2 years from last week [76][79]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although the bond market may be disturbed by the stock market's risk appetite in the short term, its allocation value is prominent supported by the fundamentals. The 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [80][83].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced significant adjustments in September, influenced by strong stock market performance and institutional behaviors, particularly in long-term government bonds and capital bonds [1][2] - The bond market's performance diverged from the funding and economic fundamentals due to several factors, including a notable rise in the stock market, particularly in technology stocks, leading to expectations of economic recovery [1][2] - Institutional funds, such as pension funds, shifted significantly from the bond market to the stock market, exacerbated by regulatory impacts on public funds [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bond market's balance increased by 15.3 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, with government bonds contributing 10.3 trillion yuan and financial bonds 2.7 trillion yuan [1][4] - Bank self-operated bond investments surged, with an increase of 11.4 trillion yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year, indicating a strong shift towards bond investments amid low credit demand [1][4] - The report notes that the overall bond investment balance of major banks increased by 21.4% year-on-year, while small and medium-sized banks also saw a significant increase of 17.8% [1][4] Group 3 - The report suggests that conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be emerging, with the central bank indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy while managing risks [1][2] - Recent economic data shows a decline in investment, consumption, and export growth rates, suggesting increasing downward pressure on the economy [1][6] - The report anticipates that the bond market's configuration value is prominent, with potential stabilization and a downward trend in bond yields, particularly for 10-year government bonds [1][2]

8月1日讯，国债市场早盘窄幅震荡。截至上午10:00，30年国债ETF(511090)跌0.25%。规模方面，30年国债ETF近期资金持续流入，截至发稿，最 新规模已突破232亿元。债市方面，30年期国债期货合约(TL2509)最新价为119.12元，持平0.00%，成交量为26103手，总持仓量为114229手。其余 国债期货合约10年期国债(T2509)跌0.01%；5年期国债(TF2509)持平0.00%；2年期国债(TS2509)持平0.00%。(数据来源：中国金融期货交易所) 1.资金面 央行今日开展1260亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.40%，与此前持平。银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，截至昨日下午16:30，10年期国债 活跃券250011收益率下行1.5bp报1.705%，30年期国债活跃券2500002收益率下行0.9bp报1.913%，10年期国开活跃券250210收益率下行1.25bp报 1.7915%。 2.债市资讯 近日，中共中央政治局召开会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效 应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the bond market, emphasizing that despite short-term fluctuations, bond funds remain a viable long-term investment option due to their inherent income-generating characteristics and historical performance trends [2][36]. Group 1: Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - The bond market has experienced a notable adjustment due to multiple factors, including a shift in risk appetite driven by optimistic policy expectations and asset rotation effects [6][19]. - The recent rise in commodity prices and stock market strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, has diluted the appeal of fixed-income products [7][19]. - A temporary tightening of liquidity conditions, highlighted by the central bank's net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan through reverse repos, has contributed to the upward pressure on bond yields [13][19]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that the bond market has undergone several "stress tests," with each adjustment reflecting a revaluation of economic expectations, policy rhythms, and trading structures [21][28]. - The article outlines past significant adjustments, such as the "money shortage" in 2013 and the "debt disaster" in 2016, demonstrating that the bond market has consistently recovered from downturns [24][25][26]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while short-term volatility is expected, the long-term trend remains favorable for bond investments, characterized by a "bullish long, bearish short" pattern [29][34]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - The bond market's fundamental appeal lies in its fixed income nature, which provides a safety net against capital loss, allowing for potential recovery over time [38][39]. - Data shows that even during challenging periods, such as 2013 and 2018, bond indices have achieved positive returns, reinforcing their role as a defensive investment choice [44][46]. - The article concludes that despite short-term fluctuations, the bond market is positioned favorably for long-term investment, serving as a crucial component of diversified portfolios [51][50].

Group 1 - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with over 40% of bond funds reaching historical net value highs as of May 26, 2023 [1][2] - The Wind medium to long-term pure bond index reached a historical high of 2515.42 points on May 26, 2023, with a 0.25% increase over the past month and 0.81% over the past three months [1] - The bond market has attracted significant inflows, with a total net inflow of over 310 billion yuan into 29 bond ETFs since May [3] Group 2 - Several bond funds have reported strong returns, with 2986 products achieving historical net value highs, and many funds showing returns exceeding 3% over the past three months [2] - The recent influx of capital into the bond market has led to the emergence of several "popular" bond funds, with notable fundraising successes [2] - The short-term bond ETF has become particularly popular, with net inflows exceeding 58 billion yuan in May, indicating a preference for short-term, liquid investment options [3] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to maintain its long-term investment value due to the People's Bank of China's continued accommodative monetary policy [4] - The long-end interest rates have shown a downward trend, and the market is currently assessing the impact of external disturbances on the economy [4] - The credit bond market is experiencing a steepening yield curve, with mid to long-term credit bonds becoming increasingly attractive for investment [4]