中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 黄金牛市还能走多远？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 近期黄金大幅上涨，受到美联储重启宽松周期、美元信誉下降、地缘风险升级三重因素支撑。往前看，当前美联储仍在宽松周期，美国 经济面临滞胀压力，尚未出现政策与经济拐点，因此黄金牛市可能延续，我们维持超配。我们此前预测黄金长期价格中枢为3300-5000 美元/盎司，当前金价已高于短期估值中枢，可能存在一定泡沫，建议淡化黄金价格点位预测，更关注资产趋势改变时点。2026年初， 美国通胀上行与增长边际改善可能使美联储放缓宽松，对金价形成压制；但下半年随着新美联储主席就任及通胀下行，降息可能加速， 或重新提供支撑。资产配置建议维持超配黄金，把握短期波段机会与流动性外溢机会，上调商品至标配，维持超配中国股票，低配中 债，标配美股美债。 2025.12.26 | 李昭 杨晓卿 02 策略 Strategy 股市和汇率谁"错"了？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 近期股汇的背离恰恰是因为不同的因素驱动所致，因此也就不矛盾。但最终谁向谁收敛、又或者能否收敛，取决于：1）这个导致背离 的短期因素会 ...

股债汇波动加大！ 12月23日午后，国债期货拉升，30年期主力合约日内涨超0.90%。各期限国债集体大涨。与此同时，离 岸人民币兑美元盘中涨破7.02关口，创2024年10月来新高，日内涨逾110点。 值得注意的是，A股市场亦迎来突变。多只高位股午后跳水，合富中国触及跌停，平潭发展、东百集 团、百大集团全线走低。港股市场亦节节走低。那么，究竟发生了什么？ 债汇齐飞 昨天降息预期落空，长债大幅杀跌。但今天国债市场却迎来了大反攻。国债期货早盘收盘，30年期主力 合约涨0.64%，10年期主力合约涨0.19%，5年期主力合约涨0.15%，2年期主力合约涨0.05%。午后，30 年期主力合约继续拉升，日内涨超0.90%。 东兴证券认为，利率向上风险主要来自风险偏好变动（中长期资金入市推动股市持续回暖）。从沪深 300(1/PE)Vs10年期国债收益率比价来看，当前股债比价已回到中性区间。市场对于2026年权益的预期 较好，当前股债比价还未到达极值。后续随着股债比价持续修复，股市强势对债券或有一定影响但幅度 有限。利率下行空间更多取决于银行负债端改善幅度，其中关键变量是存款活化和非银化幅度。2026年 是银行定期存款到 ...

股债汇波动加大！ 昨天降息预期落空，长债大幅杀跌。但今天国债市场却迎来了大反攻。国债期货早盘收盘，30年期主力合约涨 0.64%，10年期主力合约涨0.19%，5年期主力合约涨0.15%，2年期主力合约涨0.05%。午后，30年期主力合约 继续拉升，日内涨超0.90%。 东兴证券认为，利率向上风险主要来自风险偏好变动（中长期资金入市推动股市持续回暖）。从沪深 300(1/PE)Vs10年期国债收益率比价来看，当前股债比价已回到中性区间。市场对于2026年权益的预期较好， 当前股债比价还未到达极值。后续随着股债比价持续修复，股市强势对债券或有一定影响但幅度有限。利率下 行空间更多取决于银行负债端改善幅度，其中关键变量是存款活化和非银化幅度。2026年是银行定期存款到期 高峰。静态测算定存到期对成本改善幅度在12.2bp，但也需关注银行负债端稳定性与债券浮盈兑现诉求。 人民币汇率亦持续上涨。中午时分，离岸人民币兑美元盘中涨破7.02关口，创2024年10月来新高，日内涨逾 110点。值得注意的是， 人民币兑 美元 中间价依然在7.05上方。此前，人民币贬值之时，中间价亦与离岸价有 价差。相较而言，中间价更为稳定。 ...

来源：中金点睛 近期，一个有意思但又让人意外的现象是：一方面，人民币持续走强迭创新高，离岸人民币兑美元汇率10月初以来升值1.3%，距离7的整数关口只有"一 步之遥"；但另一方面，股市却持续回调，尤其是原本应该对汇率和资金流向更敏感的港股市场，跌幅反而更大，恒科从10月初高点下跌15%。 历史上，汇率走势与AH两地市场都有较强的正相关性，因为汇率走强往往意味着外资流入和中国基本面向好，更不用说港股还有人民币走强折算到港币 计价EPS的额外增厚。 图表：近期，港股与人民币对美元汇率稳定的负相关性被打破 资料来源：Bloomberg， Wind，中金公司研究部 然而，近期这一规律却被"打破"了，汇率走强股市反而下跌。该如何理解这一背离，到底是汇率错了，还是股市错了？要知道，前11个月中国顺差创下 1.08万亿美元的历史记录且美联储新主席提名在即，都使得市场对于弱美元和大量顺差结汇需求共同推动下的人民币升值预期愈发强烈，如果这一结论成 立且汇率与股市的传统逻辑依然适用的话，那就意味着中国资产重估将迎来新的动力和阶段。 但细想后就不难发现，这一逻辑链条仍值得推敲，就如同近期为何背离一样，一个简单的解释是二者的驱动因素 ...

近期，一个有意思但又让人意外的现象是：一方面，人民币持续走强迭创新高，离岸人民币兑美元汇率10月初以来升值1.3%，距离7的整数关口只有"一步 之遥"；但另一方面，股市却持续回调，尤其是原本应该对汇率和资金流向更敏感的港股市场，跌幅反而更大，恒科从10月初高点下跌15%。 历史上，汇率走势与AH两地市场都有较强的正相关性， 因为汇率走强往往意味着外资流入和中国基本面向好，更不用说港股还有人民币走强折算到港币 计价EPS的额外增厚。 图表：近期，港股与人民币对美元汇率稳定的负相关性被打破 资料来源：Bloomberg， Wind，中金公司研究部 然而，近期这一规律却被"打破"了，汇率走强股市反而下跌。该如何理解这一背离，到底是汇率错了，还是股市错了？ 要知道，前11个月中国顺差创下 1.08万亿美元的历史记录且美联储新主席提名在即，都使得市场对于弱美元和大量顺差结汇需求共同推动下的人民币升值预期愈发强烈，如果这一结论成 立且汇率与股市的传统逻辑依然适用的话，那就意味着中国资产重估将迎来新的动力和阶段。 但细想后就不难发现，这一逻辑链条仍值得推敲，就如同近期为何背离一样， 一个简单的解释是二者的驱动因素完全不同， ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the divergence between the Japanese stock market and the yen, highlighting that while the Nikkei 225 index has approached historical highs, the yen has depreciated significantly [3][9][71] - Since June, the Nikkei 225 has surged by 9.2%, with foreign capital inflows totaling $5.11 billion, while the yen has weakened by 2.4% during the same period [3][9][71] - The article notes that this divergence is not uncommon in Japan, as currency depreciation can improve corporate earnings, particularly for companies with significant overseas revenue [18][71] Group 2 - The article identifies low inflation expectations and a cooling of interest rate hike predictions as key factors contributing to the yen's weakness [32][72] - Japan's core CPI has been influenced more by imported factors, and inflation has consistently fallen short of expectations, leading to a reduction in market expectations for interest rate hikes from 0.7 times to 0.6 times per year [32][72] - The article also mentions that unsuccessful trade negotiations between the US and Japan, along with political turmoil from recent Senate elections, have exacerbated the yen's weakness [4][41][72] Group 3 - Following the recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, market expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in October have increased from 42.1% to 68.1% [5][51][72] - However, the article warns that insufficient inflation persistence may still hinder significant interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan [5][51][72] - The focus moving forward will be on the upcoming leadership election within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and potential fiscal expansion, which could lead to concerns about a "debt and currency double whammy" [58][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, the Nikkei 225 index approached a record high again. While foreign capital continued to flow in, the yen depreciated significantly. The divergence between stocks and exchange rates is not uncommon in Japan, mainly due to the improvement of stock earnings caused by depreciation. What's relatively abnormal is the weakness of the yen under a weak - dollar environment. Usually, the yen is stronger when the dollar is weak, but recently its trend has clearly diverged from that of the euro [2][16][56]. - The lack of inflation stickiness and lower - than - expected inflation have led to a cooling of interest - rate hike expectations, which is one of the reasons for the recent weakness of the yen. Currently, the rebound of Japan's core CPI is mainly driven by imported factors, with weak inflation stickiness and often falling short of expectations. Against this background, the market's expectation of the number of interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year dropped from 0.7 times on May 30th to 0.6 times on July 22nd, and the yen weakened accordingly. In addition, the previous unsuccessful US - Japan trade negotiations and the recent Senate election turmoil have further exacerbated the weakness of the yen [2][3][58]. - After the trade agreement was reached, market expectations of an interest - rate hike have heated up again. However, the lack of inflation stickiness may still be a constraint on the Bank of Japan's significant interest - rate hikes. On July 22nd, the US and Japan reached a trade agreement. After the agreement was reached, the market's expected probability of a Bank of Japan interest - rate hike in October quickly rose from 42.1% to 68.1%. The conclusion of the trade agreement is beneficial for the yen's rebound, but attention should also be paid to the constraint of insufficient inflation stickiness on interest - rate hikes [4][45][58]. - Looking ahead, the exchange - rate trend may need to focus on the changes in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and fiscal expansion. The suspense about Japan's new prime minister may continue until the September presidential election, and political risks may still persist during this period. Whether it is the in - party's demand for fiscal expansion or the possible victory of Takaichi Sanae, it may trigger market concerns about Japan's fiscal expansion, thereby causing a "bond - exchange double - kill" situation [4][50][58]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Exchange Rate Bi - weekly Report: The "Weak" Yen in the Political Vortex? 3.1.1 Anomaly in the Japanese Market Recently? The Divergence between the Trends of Japanese Stocks and the Yen, and the Persistent Weakness of the Yen under a Weak - Dollar Environment - The Nikkei 225 index approached a record high again. From June, it soared 9.2%, and foreign capital accelerated its purchase of Japanese stocks, with a total inflow of $5.11 billion. However, the yen depreciated by 2.4% during the same period. The divergence between stocks and exchange rates in Japan is due to the improvement of stock earnings caused by depreciation. Japan's export - oriented economic structure makes the depreciation beneficial for exports and increases the exchange - gain of overseas revenues. Since 2013, in the yen depreciation cycle, sectors with a higher proportion of overseas revenues in Japanese stocks have seen greater increases [2][16][24]. - Under the background of the US dollar index falling 1.8% since June 2025, most currencies appreciated against the US dollar, such as the Mexican peso, Danish krone, Swiss franc, euro, and Australian dollar, which appreciated 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%, 3.5%, and 2.1% respectively. However, the yen depreciated by 2.4% against the US dollar, which is different from the historical situation where the yen was mostly stronger when the US dollar weakened [27]. 3.1.2 What Caused the Weakness of the Yen? The Cooling of Interest - Rate Hike Expectations due to Lower - than - Expected Inflation, and the Impact of Trade Negotiations and Political Turmoil - The lack of inflation stickiness and lower - than - expected inflation led to a cooling of interest - rate hike expectations. Japan's core CPI rebound is mainly driven by imported factors, and the inflation surprise index has been declining since May 30th. The market's expectation of the number of interest - rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year dropped from 0.66 times on May 30th to 0.59 times on July 22nd, causing the yen to weaken [32]. - The previous 8 rounds of US - Japan trade negotiations, with the first 7 being unsuccessful, made the market worry about the impact of high tariffs on the Japanese economy and exacerbated the weakening of the yen. On July 22nd, an agreement was reached: the US will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US [36][38]. - The "political vortex" of the Senate election on July 20th made the market worry about the further "loosening" of Japan's fiscal policy. The ruling coalition lost control of the Senate, and to stabilize power, it may accept the in - party's proposals such as fuel - tax reduction and a small - scale cut in consumption tax, which led to the weakness of the yen and the increase in the term premium of Japanese bonds [39]. 3.1.3 New Focus after the Agreement? Inflation Remains a Constraint on the Bank of Japan's Interest - Rate Hikes, and Attention Should be Paid to the Possible "Bond - Exchange Double - Kill" Caused by Fiscal Expansion - After the US - Japan trade agreement was reached on July 22nd, the market's expected probability of a Bank of Japan interest - rate hike in October rose from 42.1% to 68.1%. The agreement is beneficial for the yen's rebound, but the lack of inflation stickiness may still restrict significant interest - rate hikes [45]. - Looking forward, the exchange - rate trend should focus on the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and fiscal expansion. The new prime - ministerial suspense may last until September, and political risks may continue. The in - party's demand for fiscal expansion or Takaichi Sanae's possible victory may trigger concerns about fiscal expansion and a "bond - exchange double - kill" [50]. - Externally, it should focus on the persistence of the US stagflation trade. Once the market restarts the slowdown trade, the yen is expected to strengthen again. Multiple signs indicate that US inflation may enter an upward phase, which may lead to a temporary rebound of the US dollar and a temporary decline of the yen. Subsequently, the weakening of US unemployment data may be the key for the slowdown trade and the strengthening of the yen [53]. 3.2 Large - scale Assets & Overseas Events & Data: The US - Japan Tariff Agreement was Reached, and Most Developed Markets Rose 3.2.1 Large - scale Assets: Developed Markets Continued to Rise, and Coking Coal Rose Significantly - Most developed - market stock indices rose, such as the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500, which rose 4.1%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively. Most emerging - market stock indices also rose. Most sectors of the US S&P 500 rose, and most sectors in the eurozone rose as well. The Hang Seng Index rose across the board, and most industries increased [59][64][66]. - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in developed countries showed a divergent trend. The yields of Japanese, German, and Italian 10 - year government bonds rose, while those of the UK, US, and French 10 - year government bonds fell. Most 10 - year government bond yields in emerging markets rose [68][72]. - The US dollar index fell 0.8% to 97.67, and most other currencies appreciated against the US dollar. The yuan appreciated against the US dollar. Commodity prices showed mixed trends. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil prices fell, while coking coal and rebar prices rose. Non - precious metals rose, and precious metals fell [74][82][84]. 3.2.2 The US Reached Three Trade Agreements - Since July 22nd, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The US will impose a 15% tariff on Japan, lower than the previously threatened 25%. Japan promises to invest $550 billion in the US. The US will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesia, lower than the previously threatened 25%. The US will lower the tariff on the Philippines from 20% to 19% [90]. 3.2.3 The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan Lost the Election, and the Possibility of Fiscal Expansion Increased - In the 27th Senate election on July 20, 2025, the ruling coalition lost control of the Senate. To stabilize power, it may accept the in - party's proposals such as fuel - tax reduction and a small - scale cut in consumption tax, so the scale of Japan's fiscal stimulus may expand in the second half of the year. After the election results were announced, the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose to around 1.60% [95]. 3.2.4 Federal Reserve: Pay Attention to the July FOMC Meeting Next Week - The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. Attention should be paid to the July FOMC meeting next week. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, but also focuses on whether the Fed will send more signals about the September interest - rate cut [99]. 3.2.5 Trump Visited the Federal Reserve and Stated that He Would Not Remove Powell - On July 24, 2025, US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve headquarters. He expressed his hope for an interest - rate cut but said he would not remove Powell because of the renovation project [103]. 3.2.6 PMI: The US Markit Manufacturing PMI Declined - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the market expectation of 52.7, indicating that tariffs still disturbed US industrial production. The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, in line with market expectations [105]. 3.2.7 ECB: The July Meeting Kept Interest Rates Unchanged, in Line with Market Expectations - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July, as the eurozone's inflation reached the target, domestic price pressure eased, and the economic performance met expectations. The ECB has no exchange - rate target but will consider the indirect impact of exchange - rate fluctuations on inflation and the economy [109]. 3.2.8 Unemployment Benefits: The Number of Continuing Unemployment Benefit Claims Basically Met Market Expectations - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial unemployment benefit claims in the US was 217,000, lower than the market expectation of 226,000. As of the week ending July 12, the number of continuing unemployment benefit claims was 1.955 million, slightly lower than the market expectation [112]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomic Calendar: Pay Attention to the Federal Reserve Meeting - The report provides a global macroeconomic data calendar, including important events such as the ECB's interest - rate meeting, China's industrial enterprise profits, the US GDP, and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [116].