来源：中信建投证券研究 文|朱玥 许琳 任佳玮 鉴于本轮锂电周期与上轮光伏周期本质驱动力和截至目前的剧情演绎高度相似，本篇报告系统性地复盘 光伏大周期是为本轮锂电之参考，主要结论有三：1、市场多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，最终 演绎的结果是量价齐升，中上游向下游电站要利润，全产业链通胀。2、产能刚性环节的价格是需求的 风向标，最终价格回落是由于产能投放而非需求萎缩。3、股价层面：底部估值抬升之后，市场可能会 对需求产生怀疑导致板块阶段性纠结，但最终因产业链量价齐升股价同步跟随，价格弹性大的环节表现 最优。 2020年光伏周期复盘：多言涨价影响需求，但实际从未影响，更多的情况是量价齐升，瓶颈环节几乎拿 走行业大部分利润 本轮由储能驱动的锂电周期和上一轮光伏周期高度相似，截至目前几乎有着近乎一致的剧情复刻。"平 价上网"之后，下游电站的超额利润推动了需求的非线性增长，且电站环节由"补贴驱动的工程项目"变 身"经济性驱动的电力资产"，大量国央企及社会资本涌入，同步伴随着国内利率下行周期启动，量价齐 升，对紧缺环节造成挤兑。 产能刚性的光伏硅料和玻璃几乎拿走产业链大部分利润（本文以2021-2022年的硅料为例） ...

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar is adapting to the new cycle in the photovoltaic industry by pausing the expansion of module production capacity and focusing on technological upgrades to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [1][4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - JinkoSolar's "Smart Factory" in Shangrao, Jiangxi, is the world's first integrated production base for high-efficiency N-type TOPCon photovoltaic cells, with a total investment of 15 billion yuan [2]. - The factory spans nearly one kilometer and produces over 3.9 million photovoltaic cells daily, serving nearly 200 countries and regions globally [2][6]. - The company has achieved a significant milestone by being the top global supplier of photovoltaic modules for six consecutive years [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The factory has implemented several technological upgrades, including the introduction of half-cell passivation technology, which enhances the efficiency and performance of photovoltaic cells [2][7]. - JinkoSolar's high-efficiency product line has seen power ratings exceed 640W, surpassing the market average by 20W to 30W [2][3]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Financial Performance - In response to competitive pressures, JinkoSolar is focusing on a balanced approach to production and exploring innovative efficiency improvements [3][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 31.83 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 32.63%, and a net loss of 2.91 billion yuan [4]. - Despite short-term losses, JinkoSolar anticipates a future market shortage for high-efficiency photovoltaic products, projecting a premium of 0.5 to 1 cent per watt for upgraded products [3][5]. Group 4: Industry Context and Future Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing a downturn, prompting JinkoSolar to halt the planned expansion of its module production capacity [4][5]. - The company is optimistic about a market recovery by the second half of 2024, driven by industry self-regulation and government initiatives to eliminate outdated capacity [5][6]. - JinkoSolar is expanding its global footprint, with over 60% of its revenue coming from international markets, and plans to establish a joint venture in Saudi Arabia for a 10GW high-efficiency battery and module project [6][7].

Core Insights - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has become the first company in the global photovoltaic industry to enter the Fortune Global 500 list in 2023, marking a significant achievement for both Sichuan manufacturing and the water and photovoltaic sectors [1][3] - Despite the challenging market conditions that have led to over 150 photovoltaic companies in China going bankrupt since 2024, Tongwei has maintained its leading position in the industry [4] - The company has undergone a strategic restructuring of its business segments since 2025, focusing on optimizing its operations [4][11] Business Performance - As of mid-2025, Tongwei's production capacity includes over 900,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon, over 150 GW of solar cells, and over 90 GW of modules [5] - In 2024, Tongwei signed nearly 40 billion yuan in orders with Longi Green Energy, showcasing its strong market presence [5] - The company reported a total loss of approximately 119.94 billion yuan for the entirety of 2024 and the first half of 2025, with significant losses attributed to its subsidiary Sichuan Yongxiang [9][10] Strategic Decisions - In February 2025, Tongwei decided to "strategically abandon" its battery cell business, which had previously been a stronghold for the company, due to ongoing patent disputes and production issues at its Southeast Asian factories [7][9] - The company has engaged in financing activities to alleviate cash flow pressures, raising approximately 49.16 billion yuan for Sichuan Yongxiang [10][11] Financial Health - As of mid-2025, Tongwei's cash and cash equivalents exceeded 33.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.9 billion yuan increase from the end of 2024 [13] - The company has managed to maintain a stable cash flow, which is crucial for navigating the current photovoltaic market cycle [12][15] Competitive Landscape - Tongwei's cost control capabilities are under scrutiny, especially in comparison to its main competitor, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings, which has demonstrated lower production costs for granular silicon [15][17] - The average production cash cost for Tongwei's multi-crystalline silicon remains between 26 to 29 yuan/kg, while GCL-Poly's costs have been reported at 25.31 yuan/kg [17][19] Conclusion - Tongwei has successfully integrated itself across the entire photovoltaic supply chain, positioning itself ahead of many competitors in terms of scale and cash flow [19] - The company's approach to navigating the current market cycle contrasts with GCL-Poly's focus on technological cost reduction, highlighting two different strategies for survival in the industry [19]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Fulete has significant advantages in capacity, cost, and profit, highlighting its alpha attributes. The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and a new round of photovoltaic glass cycle is expected to begin in 2025, with the sector's ROE level outperforming the photovoltaic industry as a whole [1] Industry Summary - 2025 is anticipated to mark the beginning of a new cycle, following a period of demand growth, capacity increase, and rising prices and profits. Currently, there is a decline in demand, leading to a second round of capacity clearance under profit pressure, signaling the end of the current cycle [1] - After this cycle, it is expected that leading companies will return to reasonable profit levels, achieving a net profit of approximately 1-1.5 yuan per square meter, while second-tier companies may transition from cash cost losses to breakeven [1] Company Summary - The photovoltaic glass sector is projected to maintain an ROE of 4.58% in 2024, outperforming other segments of the photovoltaic industry. The glass sector is considered to have strong risk resistance and long-term investment value [1] - The company is given an "outperforming industry" rating, with a target price of 18.51 yuan for A-shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a revenue of 82.582 billion and a net loss of 8.618 billion, indicating a challenging market environment and operational difficulties [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 82.582 billion, down 36.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of -8.618 billion, a decrease of 180.15% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.652 billion, a decline of 22.75% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.436 billion, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company experienced a drop in profitability due to falling product prices, with silicon wafer shipments of 108.46 GW and battery module shipments of 82.32 GW in 2024. Revenue from modules and battery/silicon wafer businesses decreased by 33.13% and 66.53%, respectively [3]. - The gross margin for modules and silicon wafers fell significantly, with margins at 6.27% and -14.31%, respectively, reflecting the impact of price declines [3]. Operational Strategy - The company maintained a prudent operational strategy, reducing management expenses by 30.21% to 3.430 billion in 2024. Inventory levels for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules decreased by over 30% year-on-year [4]. - The company has kept its monetary funds above 50 billion for eight consecutive quarters, providing a strong buffer to navigate the current photovoltaic cycle [4]. Technological Advancements - The HPBC2.0 module achieved a mass production efficiency of 24.8%, with expectations to exceed 20 GW in BC module shipments by 2025. The company has secured significant orders in global markets [5]. - The company anticipates that by the end of 2025, its HPBC2.0 battery and module capacity will reach 50 GW, with total module shipments projected between 80 to 90 GW, of which BC module shipments will exceed 20 GW [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longi Green Energy [3][6]. Core Views - Longi Green Energy reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 82.582 billion yuan, down 36.23% year-on-year, and a net loss of 8.618 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.15% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue to 13.652 billion yuan, down 22.75% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.436 billion yuan [1][3]. - The company faced challenges due to falling product prices, which impacted profitability, leading to an asset impairment provision of 8.701 billion yuan in 2024 [1][3]. - Despite the current pressures on profitability, Longi remains a leader in the monocrystalline silicon wafer and integrated business, with new products like HPBC expected to support future performance [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Longi achieved a silicon wafer shipment of 108.46 GW and a battery module shipment of 82.32 GW, maintaining a leading market share in China and Europe [1]. - The revenue from silicon wafers and battery/modules was 66.334 billion yuan and 8.207 billion yuan, respectively, both showing significant year-on-year declines of 33.13% and 66.53% [1]. - The gross margin for silicon wafers decreased by 12.11 percentage points to 6.27%, while the battery/module segment saw a gross margin drop of 30.19 percentage points to -14.31% [1]. Operational Strategy - Longi has maintained a prudent operational strategy, keeping cash reserves above 50 billion yuan and reducing management expenses by 30.21% to 3.430 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory levels across silicon wafers, batteries, and modules by over 30% year-on-year by the end of 2024 [2]. Product Development - The HPBC2.0 module has achieved a mass production efficiency of 24.8%, with expectations to exceed 20 GW in shipments by the end of 2025 [3]. - The company anticipates that by the end of 2025, its HPBC2.0 battery and module capacity will reach 50 GW, with total module shipments projected to be between 80-90 GW [3].

小K侃有色 . 我是小K，欢迎大家来扎营、吐槽，集股债商汇于一体，无分析不成文、无数学不乐趣的辣评集中营。 以下文章来源于小K侃有色 ，作者小K侃有色 文 | 小K侃有色 来源 | 小K侃有色 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 自4月2日对等关税以来大宗商品跳空暴跌8.88%（最高点到最低点），后随着90天暂停关税市场沿着关税缓和的路径修复了部分 下跌，目前自最低点上涨了3.92%，目前看跳空缺口修复无望。在此期间波动率快速收窄，技术上也面临20日均线的压制，静等 下一步指引。如果从板块上来看，工业品弱于农产品，工业品之于关税作用于需求远大于供给，农产品作用于供给远大于需求。 还有一个现象，这一波下跌实际上是压缩利润的，最明显的例子就是化工品相对于油品来说反弹是更弱的，扒开各个品种细分来 看也大致如此。 接下来大宗市场路向何方？我们也来唠一唠。 一、宏观上，今年也是宏观大年，不过相对于前两年来说是宏观利空年 国际货币基金组织(IMF)当地时间4月22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%，较今年1月 预测值低0.5个百分点。IMF预计，2026年全球经济将增 ...