Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that Fulete has significant advantages in capacity, cost, and profit, highlighting its alpha attributes. The industry is at the bottom of the cycle, and a new round of photovoltaic glass cycle is expected to begin in 2025, with the sector's ROE level outperforming the photovoltaic industry as a whole [1] Industry Summary - 2025 is anticipated to mark the beginning of a new cycle, following a period of demand growth, capacity increase, and rising prices and profits. Currently, there is a decline in demand, leading to a second round of capacity clearance under profit pressure, signaling the end of the current cycle [1] - After this cycle, it is expected that leading companies will return to reasonable profit levels, achieving a net profit of approximately 1-1.5 yuan per square meter, while second-tier companies may transition from cash cost losses to breakeven [1] Company Summary - The photovoltaic glass sector is projected to maintain an ROE of 4.58% in 2024, outperforming other segments of the photovoltaic industry. The glass sector is considered to have strong risk resistance and long-term investment value [1] - The company is given an "outperforming industry" rating, with a target price of 18.51 yuan for A-shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a revenue of 82.582 billion and a net loss of 8.618 billion, indicating a challenging market environment and operational difficulties [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 82.582 billion, down 36.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of -8.618 billion, a decrease of 180.15% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.652 billion, a decline of 22.75% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.436 billion, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company experienced a drop in profitability due to falling product prices, with silicon wafer shipments of 108.46 GW and battery module shipments of 82.32 GW in 2024. Revenue from modules and battery/silicon wafer businesses decreased by 33.13% and 66.53%, respectively [3]. - The gross margin for modules and silicon wafers fell significantly, with margins at 6.27% and -14.31%, respectively, reflecting the impact of price declines [3]. Operational Strategy - The company maintained a prudent operational strategy, reducing management expenses by 30.21% to 3.430 billion in 2024. Inventory levels for silicon wafers, batteries, and modules decreased by over 30% year-on-year [4]. - The company has kept its monetary funds above 50 billion for eight consecutive quarters, providing a strong buffer to navigate the current photovoltaic cycle [4]. Technological Advancements - The HPBC2.0 module achieved a mass production efficiency of 24.8%, with expectations to exceed 20 GW in BC module shipments by 2025. The company has secured significant orders in global markets [5]. - The company anticipates that by the end of 2025, its HPBC2.0 battery and module capacity will reach 50 GW, with total module shipments projected between 80 to 90 GW, of which BC module shipments will exceed 20 GW [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Longi Green Energy [3][6]. Core Views - Longi Green Energy reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 82.582 billion yuan, down 36.23% year-on-year, and a net loss of 8.618 billion yuan, a decrease of 180.15% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue to 13.652 billion yuan, down 22.75% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.436 billion yuan [1][3]. - The company faced challenges due to falling product prices, which impacted profitability, leading to an asset impairment provision of 8.701 billion yuan in 2024 [1][3]. - Despite the current pressures on profitability, Longi remains a leader in the monocrystalline silicon wafer and integrated business, with new products like HPBC expected to support future performance [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Longi achieved a silicon wafer shipment of 108.46 GW and a battery module shipment of 82.32 GW, maintaining a leading market share in China and Europe [1]. - The revenue from silicon wafers and battery/modules was 66.334 billion yuan and 8.207 billion yuan, respectively, both showing significant year-on-year declines of 33.13% and 66.53% [1]. - The gross margin for silicon wafers decreased by 12.11 percentage points to 6.27%, while the battery/module segment saw a gross margin drop of 30.19 percentage points to -14.31% [1]. Operational Strategy - Longi has maintained a prudent operational strategy, keeping cash reserves above 50 billion yuan and reducing management expenses by 30.21% to 3.430 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory levels across silicon wafers, batteries, and modules by over 30% year-on-year by the end of 2024 [2]. Product Development - The HPBC2.0 module has achieved a mass production efficiency of 24.8%, with expectations to exceed 20 GW in shipments by the end of 2025 [3]. - The company anticipates that by the end of 2025, its HPBC2.0 battery and module capacity will reach 50 GW, with total module shipments projected to be between 80-90 GW [3].

小K侃有色 . 我是小K，欢迎大家来扎营、吐槽，集股债商汇于一体，无分析不成文、无数学不乐趣的辣评集中营。 以下文章来源于小K侃有色 ，作者小K侃有色 文 | 小K侃有色 来源 | 小K侃有色 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 自4月2日对等关税以来大宗商品跳空暴跌8.88%（最高点到最低点），后随着90天暂停关税市场沿着关税缓和的路径修复了部分 下跌，目前自最低点上涨了3.92%，目前看跳空缺口修复无望。在此期间波动率快速收窄，技术上也面临20日均线的压制，静等 下一步指引。如果从板块上来看，工业品弱于农产品，工业品之于关税作用于需求远大于供给，农产品作用于供给远大于需求。 还有一个现象，这一波下跌实际上是压缩利润的，最明显的例子就是化工品相对于油品来说反弹是更弱的，扒开各个品种细分来 看也大致如此。 接下来大宗市场路向何方？我们也来唠一唠。 一、宏观上，今年也是宏观大年，不过相对于前两年来说是宏观利空年 国际货币基金组织(IMF)当地时间4月22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%，较今年1月 预测值低0.5个百分点。IMF预计，2026年全球经济将增 ...