电力设备及新能源行业 证券研究报告 |行业策略研究报告 2026/1/6 光伏行业2026年行业策略—— 反内卷加速供需重塑，重视新技术、新场景 首席分析师: 刘强 分析师登记编号: S1190522080001 证券分析师: 钟欣材 分析师登记编号： S1190524110004 P2 报告摘要 1、"反内卷"推动供需重塑，光储平价在核心市场加速展开，新场景打开远期想象空间 从2025年年中起，"反内卷"精神持续深入光伏行业，主链报价自上而下回暖，辅材龙头企业2025年三季度盈利修复明显。同 时，随着光储平价在中国、美国、欧洲等国家和区域加速展开，储能发展迅速，有效缓解光伏新增装机快速提升对电网带来的冲 击。展望2026年，"反内卷"持续推进，光储平价持续展开，光伏行业供需有望进一步重塑，报价与盈利有望随着供需重塑震荡 修复。展望远期需求，随着算力需求提升以及部署场景开拓、空间站光伏核心技术突破等，新应用场景打开远期需求空间。 2、低银无银渗透率有望快速提升，龙头企业盈利有望率先走出低谷 技术迭代是历次新周期的核心主线，随着白银价格快速上涨，各家低银、无银技术储备加速导入量产，降本节奏较快的组件龙头 盈利修 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：开达策略知行 【天风策略】吴开达/孙希民/王澄睿 摘 要 核心结论：春季行情自身的分歧度，一定程度上能视作周期熊牛转换的标志。不局限于大势层面的长期 转换，分歧加大的时点也开启风格轮动的序章。风格轮动的春躁窗口演绎出的新主线，有望在风格确立 后的1-2年持续占优。后视镜视角看，春季躁动更多交易上年年报的反转预期和下一年年报的确定性预 期。春季躁动的交易时间跨度相对短，我们从更长的报告期区间考虑PPI回正预期对交易景气延续和困 境反转的影响。后视镜视角，PPI从前低到0与PPI回正的前后两个季度，完成了从交易景气修复到交易 景气企稳的转变。 正文摘要： 春季行情自身的分歧度，一定程度上能视作周期熊牛转换的标志。我们以一级行业、二级行业春季躁动 期间涨跌幅的方差作为春季躁动自身分歧度的衡量标准，不难发现，分歧度较高的年份，往往是长周期 熊牛转换的标志（如2013、2015、2019、2021、2024年）。 不局限于大势层面的长期转换，分歧加大的时点也开启风格轮动的序章。1）2019年春季躁动期间，成 长快速跑赢价值，成长开启3年大级 ...

行 业 研 究 华福证券 光伏发电 2026 年 01 月 03 日 光伏发电 商业航天系列 1：商业航天政策与资本化共振，太空光伏产业发 展有望进入加速期 投资要点： 事件： 行 业 动 态 跟 2025 年 12 月 31 日，蓝箭航天科创板 IPO 申请正式获受理；12 月 26 日上交所发布《商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准》，明确提 出支持尚未形成一定收入规模的优质商业火箭企业在科创板发行上 市，加快推进商业航天创新发展、主动服务航天强国战略。 政策持续加码，资本化进程有望加速。 证 券 研 究 报 告 太阳翼是航天器通过光电效应将太阳能转化为电能的核心能源装 置，主要由基板、电池片以及展开机构等组成，根据基板类型可分为 刚性太阳翼、半刚性太阳翼和柔性太阳翼，其中柔性太阳翼预计是未 来必然选择。目前电池技术路线主要包括砷化镓、硅基材料和钙钛矿， 其中砷化镓为当前主流技术路线，硅基材料实现在星链卫星中应用（根 据东方日升 12 月 28 日交流信息，其 P 型超薄 HJT 在海外地区已有小 批量交付），钙钛矿处于实验阶段，但由于具备高效、轻量、低成本（约 为砷化镓十分之一）的优势，未来潜力非常大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Social Security Fund's latest holdings in A-shares reveal significant investment activity, with a total market value of approximately 552.72 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of about 49.81 billion yuan from the previous quarter [1]. Holdings Overview - As of the end of Q3 2025, the Social Security Fund was listed among the top ten shareholders in 622 A-share companies, with a total holding value of approximately 552.72 billion yuan, up from 502.91 billion yuan at the end of Q2 2025 [1]. - The fund initiated positions in 226 new stocks, increased holdings in 153 stocks, reduced holdings in 135 stocks, and maintained positions in 108 stocks [1][19]. Sector Allocation - The majority of the fund's holdings were concentrated in the banking sector, with a market value of 270.06 billion yuan, followed by the non-bank financial sector at approximately 63.04 billion yuan [1]. - The electronics sector, which was ranked sixth in holdings at the end of Q2, moved up to third place by the end of Q3, indicating a shift in investment focus [1]. Major Holdings - Among the 622 companies, 55 had a holding value exceeding 1 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 76.67% of the total holdings [2]. - The top five stocks with holdings exceeding 10 billion yuan were primarily financial stocks, including Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Life Insurance, and Bank of Communications [2][3]. Performance Insights - The banking sector has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with Agricultural Bank of China leading with a 38.23% increase [2]. - The Social Security Fund's holdings in the insurance sector saw an increase in shares for China Life Insurance, with a market value of 44.43 billion yuan, despite a slight decline in stock price since July [3]. New Energy Sector Focus - The fund has maintained a significant allocation to the new energy sector, particularly in lithium battery and photovoltaic companies, with 20 new energy companies having a market value exceeding 300 million yuan [9]. - Stocks such as Yiwei Lithium Energy and Sanyuan Electric have seen substantial price increases, with average gains of 45.92% since July [9]. Notable Stock Movements - The fund's adjustments included significant increases in holdings for companies like Guangxin Co., with a 277.97% increase in shares, reflecting a strategic focus on traditional industries [23]. - The fund's new investments included companies in the AI computing and lithium battery supply chain, with some stocks experiencing over 100% price increases since July [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8][7]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.562 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.31%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.452 billion yuan, up 56.8% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue reached 5.626 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.14%, and the net profit was 432 million yuan, growing by 50.42% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.85 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 19.4 times [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of approximately 2.99 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 147.3% [13]. - The Q3 expense ratio was 7.6%, which is an increase of 5.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to fluctuations in financial expenses and an increase in R&D expenses, although the absolute amount of expenses remained at a reasonable level [13]. Business Segments - The magnetic materials business continues to gain market share in the home appliance and automotive sectors, with significant growth in shipments for electric vehicle onboard chargers, charging modules, thermal management systems, AI server power supply units, and chip inductors, enhancing profitability [13]. - In the photovoltaic sector, despite a projected decline in battery component shipments in Q3, the company is expected to maintain good unit profitability through proactive supply chain management [13]. - The lithium battery business focuses on small power applications across multiple fields, achieving further improvements in gross margin due to high capacity utilization and leading product technology [13].

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the power equipment sector, with a drop of 5.30% during the period from October 13 to October 17, 2025, ranking it 24th among 31 first-level industries [1][2]. Industry Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 2.22%, while the power equipment index underperformed by 3.08 percentage points [2]. - Among the sub-sectors of the power energy industry, photovoltaic battery components and hydropower generation saw increases of 1.70% and 1.69%, respectively [1][2]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic processing equipment, batteries, and wind power components experienced declines of 10.06%, 9.16%, and 8.91% [1][2]. Electricity Industry Operations - In August 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.00% [3]. - From January to August 2025, cumulative electricity consumption was 68,788 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 4.60% [3]. - The newly added power generation capacity during the same period was 34,516 MW, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 64.40% [3]. - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2,105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the previous year [3]. - Cumulative investment in the power grid reached 379.6 billion yuan, up 14.00% year-on-year, while cumulative investment in power sources was 499.2 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.50% [3]. New Power System Developments - As of October 15, 2025, the price of polysilicon remained stable, indicating a steady supply chain [4]. - By the end of the first half of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of operational energy storage projects in China reached 164.3 GW, a year-on-year increase of 59% [4]. - The cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage reached 101.3 GW, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 110% [4]. - The price of lithium carbonate was recorded at 71,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 100 yuan from the previous week [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the total number of charging infrastructure units in the country reached 17.348 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.72% [4].

Core Insights - The 18th World Solar Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Expo (WPV Expo 2026) will be held from September 16-18, 2026, in Guangzhou, China, showcasing the theme of "Technological Innovation and Global Cooperation" [1] - The expo is expected to attract over 2,000 domestic and international exhibitors, covering an exhibition area of 180,000 square meters, and receiving more than 300,000 professional visitors from over 100 countries and regions [1][8] - The event aims to serve as a significant platform for promoting technological exchanges and trade cooperation in the photovoltaic and energy storage sectors [1][7] Exhibition Scale and Impact - The exhibition area has increased by 200% compared to 2023, growing from 60,000 square meters to 180,000 square meters, with the number of participating companies rising from over 900 to more than 2,000 [8] - The expo will feature a wide range of products, including photovoltaic cells, inverters, energy storage systems, and smart operation and maintenance equipment, with leading companies launching high-efficiency photovoltaic modules and long-life energy storage batteries [8] - The event will also include interactive zones for photovoltaic and energy storage experiences, enhancing visitor engagement through simulated demonstrations of technology principles [8] Internationalization and Networking - The expo has evolved from a regional event to an international brand since its inception in 2009, with a formal rebranding in 2020 to emphasize its global strategy [7] - The event will facilitate connections between Chinese enterprises and international brands, promoting technology output and market expansion [7] - The organizing committee plans to distribute millions of tickets and conduct extensive outreach to attract high-end professional audiences, including power companies, renewable energy developers, and research institutions [9]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - In August 2025, China's solar cell module exports reached $2.921 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% and a month-on-month increase of 31.4%, with an estimated export volume of 40.42 GW. The focus of domestic manufacturers has shifted to overseas markets due to domestic policy changes and a surge in demand [2] - The inverter exports totaled $878 million in August 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.93% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.63%. The export volume reached 3.8461 million units, down 27.26% year-on-year and 16.39% month-on-month. The European market is stabilizing, while demand in Asia continues to adjust [2] - The solar storage industry has seen a decline in market conditions over the past year, but 2024-2025 may represent a bottoming period for industry profits. The balance of supply and demand is expected to improve, particularly for inverters, which have higher competitive barriers [3] Summary by Sections Export Data - In August 2025, the export volume of solar cell modules to Europe was 11.61 GW, with year-on-year growth of 39.41% and month-on-month growth of 23.84%. Emerging markets are showing significant growth, with exports outside Europe reaching 28.81 GW, a year-on-year increase of 67.77% and a month-on-month increase of 36.54% [2] - Specific provincial data shows that Zhejiang exported 1.4482 million inverters in August, a month-on-month decrease of 24.1%, while Jiangsu and Guangdong also reported declines in export volumes [2][3]

Core Insights - The CEO of TCL Zhonghuan stated that global photovoltaic installation maintained resilient growth in the first half of 2025, with a short-term surge in demand in the domestic distributed market [1] - From May to June 2025, demand in the industry chain gradually cooled, leading to an imbalance in supply and demand across various segments, resulting in continuous price declines [1] - The company will continue to focus on technological advancements and opportunities in the semiconductor materials sector, increasing investment in research and development [1] Company Overview - TCL Zhonghuan is a leading global manufacturer of photovoltaic materials, supplier of photovoltaic cells and modules, and provider of smart photovoltaic solutions [1] - The company adheres to a green ecological philosophy of "contributing blue skies and white clouds for humanity," emphasizing innovation-driven development [1] - TCL Zhonghuan aims to lead the industry in advanced technology and manufacturing methods, continuously promoting technological innovation in the photovoltaic sector for high-quality, sustainable, and leapfrog development of the global green energy industry [1]

Core Insights - TCL Zhonghuan is navigating the photovoltaic industry, which is currently at a cyclical low, with demand fluctuating due to phase-based rush installations [1] - The company aims to enhance competitiveness by focusing on cost reduction, customer-centric strategies, and capturing opportunities in industry restructuring [1] - TCL Zhonghuan is committed to innovation and sustainable development, striving for breakthroughs in key technologies like BC batteries to ensure financial health and sustainable operations [1] Company Strategy - The company plans to adjust operational strategies in response to market changes, emphasizing extreme cost reduction and customer engagement to increase market share [1] - TCL Zhonghuan is focused on reinforcing its business strengths while addressing weaknesses to prepare for future growth [1] Industry Position - As a leading manufacturer in the photovoltaic materials sector, TCL Zhonghuan promotes a green ecological philosophy and aims to drive technological innovation within the industry [1] - The company is dedicated to high-quality, sustainable, and leapfrog development in the global green energy sector [1]