分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S1130522080003） xumengjie＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：王译 wangyi9@gjzq.com.cn 永辉进入规模化调改阶段，618 电商全域协同趋势明显 核心观点 线下：永辉调改店超过 100 家，调改进入规模化新阶段 2025 年 06 月 22 日 商贸零售行业研究 买入（首次评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 天猫：品牌主场，高净值用户驱动增长，国补及情绪价值品类表现亮眼；京东：全业态爆发，即时零售成亮点； 抖音电商：全域协同，中小商家崛起；快手电商：全域电商持续推进，货架场高增长；美团闪购：首次参与 618， 高单价品类爆发。 行业数据追踪 GMV 表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，6 月第 2 周天猫+京东整体 GMV 同比-9.63%。 品类表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，6 月第 2 周天猫+京东品类增速表现前 5 的为玩具、汽车及自行车、消费电 子、家用电器、鞋包。 2025 年 6 月 13 日，永辉全国第 100 家胖东来模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a 3.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 5.74 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.5% to 500 million yuan [5][11] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in performance, with revenue dropping by 14% year-on-year to 950 million yuan and net profit down 84% to 28.34 million yuan [6][11] - The company is undergoing business transformation and optimization, focusing on brand operation and member management to strengthen its market position [11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.74 billion yuan, with a net profit of 500 million yuan, and a basic EPS of 1.20 yuan [5][11] - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.7%, slightly down from the previous year, but has shown signs of recovery since Q4 2024 [8][11] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 690 million yuan, reflecting a 13.8% increase year-on-year [10] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, online channels contributed 68% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, while offline channels accounted for 22% with a decline of 10.7% [7][11] - The skincare segment remains the largest contributor to revenue at 84%, although it saw a slight decline of 1.4% year-on-year [7][11] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company’s expense ratio increased by 4.3 percentage points to 64% in 2024, driven by higher sales and management expenses [8][11] - The sales expense ratio rose to 50%, primarily due to increased marketing and promotional activities [9][11] Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits of 690 million yuan, 830 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.62 yuan, 1.97 yuan, and 2.36 yuan [11][12]