2 元2 2025 年 10 月 12 日 中美关税再度博弈,全球化产能布局企业价值凸显 -纺织服装行业周报 20251012 相关研究 《本周发布延江股份深度,澳毛大周期推 荐新澳股份——纺织服装行业周报 20251008》 2025/10/08 《新澳、伟星低位均显现积极变化，关注 左侧布局机会——纺织服装行业周报 20250928》 2025/09/28 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanqlp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 文I (8621)23297818× liupei@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代中当书 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。10 月 9 日～10 月 10 日, SW 纺织服饰指数增长 1.6%,跑赢 SW 全 A 指数 2.0pct。其中, SW 服装家纺指数增长 1.1%, 跑赢 SW 全 A 指数 ...

业 及 产 业 纺织服饰 2025 年 10 月 12 日 中美关税再度博弈，全球化产能布局企业价值凸显 看好 ——纺织服装行业周报 20251012 相关研究 《本周发布延江股份深度，澳毛大周期推 荐新澳股份——纺织服装行业周报 20251008》 2025/10/08 《新澳、伟星低位均显现积极变化，关注 左侧布局机会——纺织服装行业周报 20250928》 2025/09/28 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 (8621)23297818× liupei@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。10 月 9 日～10 月 10 日，SW 纺织服饰指数增长 1.6%，跑赢 ...

9月29日，港股上市企业申洲国际集团控股有限公司发布了2025年中期报告。报告显示，公司在截至6月30日的六个月内实现销售收入约149.66亿元，同比 增长15.3%；母公司拥有人应占利润达31.77亿元，同比增长8.4%。这两项数据均创下同期历史新高。 | | 未經審核 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 截至六月三十日止六個月 | | | | 二零二五年 | 二零二四年 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | | 销售額 | 14,966,384 | 12,975,971 | | 毛利 | 4,058,018 | 3,761,469 | | 除稅前利潤 | 3,632,120 | 3,249,209 | | 母公司擁有人應佔利潤 | 3,176,836 | 2,931,028 | | 毛利率(%) | 27.1 | 29.0 | | 争利潤率(%) | 21.2 | 22.6 | | 每股盈利(人民幣元) | 2.11 | 1.95 | | | 二零二五年 | 二零二四年 | | | 六月三十日 | 十二月三十一日 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | | 地圖露 | 56, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's four core businesses, including smart home appliance control, industrial power, industrial automation and intelligent equipment, and new energy and rail transit, have all achieved varying degrees of growth. The industrial automation business reported sales revenue of 389 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.90%. The new energy and rail transit business generated sales revenue of 508 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.94%, accounting for 10.87% of total revenue [1][5] - The company is leveraging its core technology platform based on power electronics and control technology to achieve cross-business synergy and support rapid expansion into emerging fields such as AI server power supplies, 5G communication power supplies, and thermal management for new energy vehicles [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 520 million yuan, 912 million yuan, and 1.311 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 75.4%, and 43.7%. Corresponding EPS is expected to be 0.95 yuan, 1.67 yuan, and 2.39 yuan for the same years [3][9] - Revenue is expected to grow from 6.754 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.577 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 23.3%, 21.0%, 25.1%, 30.3%, and 24.4% for the years 2023 to 2027 [3][9] Market Opportunity - The global AI server power supply market is projected to grow from 2.846 billion USD in 2024 to 60.810 billion USD by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.00% from 2025 to 2031. The company's products are well-positioned to capture this growth, having already received small batch orders for AI server power supplies as of August 29 [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities initiates coverage on Shenzhou International (02313) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting its strong competitive advantages in R&D, supply chain management, production efficiency, and brand quality, along with deep partnerships with leading international brands [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is a global leader in vertically integrated knit manufacturing, expecting revenue of 28.663 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 6.241 billion yuan, up 36.9% [1] - In 2024, sportswear will be the main product line, generating 19.799 billion yuan, accounting for 69.1% of total revenue [1] - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 28.10%, an increase of 3.83 percentage points, while the net margin is expected to be 21.77%, up 3.52 percentage points [1] - The management expense ratio has been decreasing since 2021, projected at 6.76% in 2024, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - Inventory turnover days are expected to be 114 days, and accounts receivable turnover days are projected at 70 days in 2024 [1] Group 2: Global Capacity Expansion - The company is actively expanding its global production capacity to strengthen its industry leadership, with overseas factories accounting for approximately 53% of total garment output in 2023, a 7 percentage point increase year-on-year [2] - A new garment factory in Cambodia began operations in March 2025, employing around 4,000 staff [2] - A new fabric factory in Vietnam is progressing well, expected to start production by the end of 2025, with a planned capacity of 200 tons per day [2] Group 3: Supply Chain Integration - The company employs a vertically integrated supply chain model that covers the entire industry chain from raw material procurement to finished product delivery, enhancing efficiency through deep integration of production processes [3] - The procurement process incorporates multiple core departments to ensure efficient supply chain management and stable development [3] - The company promotes nearshore and localized procurement to enhance the responsiveness of raw material sourcing, ensuring quick order production and delivery [3] Group 4: Client Relationships - The company has a strong client base in the sports and leisure apparel sector, with major clients like NIKE, ADIDAS, UNIQLO, and PUMA contributing 80.7% of total revenue in 2024 [4] - The company has been expanding its client portfolio by partnering with new brands such as lululemon and Lacoste [4] - Through a dedicated factory model and collaborative R&D, the company provides a comprehensive ODM "one-stop" service that integrates fabric development and garment manufacturing [4]

Group 1 - The company is actively advancing its Morocco project, expecting significant production increases in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 [2] - The company has not disclosed the production and sales figures for the Morocco factory in the Q2 report, and investors are inquiring about these details [2] - The U.S. imposes a 25% tariff on key automotive components, including imported passenger cars and light truck tires, while Morocco benefits from a zero-tariff export agreement with the EU [2] Group 2 - The company will continue to closely monitor policy developments to leverage its global production capacity in response to potential impacts [2]

Group 1: Product Structure and Market Expansion - The company is optimizing its product structure while expanding production capacity and enhancing its market presence, focusing on servers, automotive electronics, base stations, switches, PCs, storage, and consumer electronics for revenue generation in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The company has actively diversified its customer resources in data centers, servers, AIPC, and automotive electronics, adapting to market changes and expanding its customer base [3] Group 2: Share Buyback Program - As of August 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 2,888,300 shares, accounting for 0.9101% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 90,039,741.52 yuan (excluding transaction fees) [3] - The maximum buyback price was adjusted from 39.4 yuan per share to 53.35 yuan per share during the board meeting on August 11, 2025, reflecting confidence in the company's future development [3] Group 3: Thailand Factory Operations - The Thailand factory commenced production in 2024 and is currently in the capacity ramp-up phase, serving as a key support point for the company's global capacity layout [3] - The factory aims to leverage local resources, policies, and logistics advantages while increasing investments in technology research and development, equipment upgrades, and talent training to enhance production capacity and technical level [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong recovery in overseas demand, leading to a return to growth in performance, with significant contributions from both international and domestic markets [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 266 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 74 million yuan, up by 5.52% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 119 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 15.52%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 13.55% to 28 million yuan [1]. Business Segmentation - Revenue from medical endoscope instruments reached 207 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%, accounting for 78.28% of main business revenue [2]. - Optical product revenue was 57 million yuan, growing by 34.62%, making up 21.72% of main business revenue [2]. Market Dynamics - The overseas market emerged as the main growth driver, with revenue increasing by approximately 28.6% year-on-year, while domestic market revenue showed stable growth [2]. - The slower profit growth compared to revenue is attributed to increased investments in R&D, domestic marketing networks, and overseas factory setups, along with reduced foreign exchange and investment income [2]. Global Expansion Strategy - The company's proactive global production layout has effectively mitigated trade risks, with a factory in Thailand now producing endoscopes and light source modules primarily for the U.S. market [2]. - The second phase of production line construction in Thailand has been initiated, which will include complete assembly and GMP production workshops, laying the groundwork for future capacity expansion [2]. Product Development and Partnerships - The company is deepening cooperation with major U.S. clients, having officially launched the development of the next-generation endoscope system, with several products entering trial production [3]. - In the domestic market, the company continues to expand its product line, obtaining registration for new surgical instruments and initiating collaborations in new business areas [3]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 180 million, 230 million, and 280 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 35.2%, 24.6%, and 22.8% respectively [3]. - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 1.53, 1.90, and 2.34 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 25, and 20 times [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic tire industry is experiencing simultaneous scale expansion and profit pressure, with significant revenue growth but a sharp decline in net profits among listed companies [1] Revenue Growth Factors - Revenue growth for the top 10 listed tire companies is primarily driven by two factors: deepening global capacity layout and breakthroughs in the new energy vehicle (NEV) supply market [2] - Leading tire companies have effectively avoided trade barriers through overseas factories, with Zhongce Rubber's production bases in Thailand and Indonesia contributing nearly 4 billion yuan in revenue [2] - The explosive growth of the NEV market, with a 41.4% year-on-year increase in production, has opened new growth avenues for tire companies [2] Domestic Replacement Market - The domestic replacement market has also supported revenue growth, with companies like Qingdao Doublestar adopting a "one area, multiple customers" strategy to cover core urban networks [3] - Guizhou Tire is actively developing group users with high demand for replacement tires, effectively reducing customer costs through superior performance [3] Cost Pressure - Despite revenue growth, listed tire companies are facing profit declines due to rising raw material prices and cost structure imbalances [4] - The significant volatility in natural rubber prices, which accounts for over 30% of production costs, has severely impacted cost control [4] - The cost of raw materials, including synthetic rubber and carbon black, has also increased, further intensifying cost pressures on tire companies [4] Structural Overcapacity - The domestic tire industry continues to face structural overcapacity, with intense competition in low-end products leading some companies to adopt price-cutting strategies, further compressing profit margins [5] - It is anticipated that raw material prices may gradually decline in the second half of the year as Southeast Asia enters the rubber tapping season [5] Future Outlook - Companies are exploring ways to stabilize procurement costs through long-term agreements and strategic reserves [6] - The continued growth of high-value-added products like smart tires and improved utilization of overseas capacity may enhance profitability [6] - Short-term challenges remain, with companies needing to focus on technological innovation and cost control to overcome the profit pressure [6]

Group 1 - The company achieved a market share of 10.5% in China by the first half of 2025, contributing to an increase in the domestic industrial robot market penetration rate to 55.3% [1] - The company is enhancing the influence of Chinese robots in the global high-end manufacturing sector [1] - The company is planning to expand its global production capacity and seek strategic alliances, investments, and acquisition opportunities through its upcoming Hong Kong listing [1] Group 2 - The company has established a global production and supply chain system through its manufacturing base in Poland, optimizing resource allocation and collaborative innovation [1] - Future acquisition plans will be disclosed in accordance with regulatory requirements [1]