1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].

Group 1 - International gold prices continue to rise, with spot gold nearing $3690 and COMEX gold futures reaching a historical high of $3728 [1] - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3679.460 per ounce, up 0.01%, while COMEX gold futures are at $3719.8 per ounce, up 0.02% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have also seen price increases, with some reaching their highest levels of the year [3] Group 2 - On September 16, the price of Chow Sang Sang gold jewelry reached 1091 RMB per gram, marking a year-to-date high, an increase of 17 RMB from the previous day [3] - Other brands such as Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang also reported year-high prices of 1087 RMB and 1086 RMB per gram, respectively, with daily increases of 13 RMB and 12 RMB [3] - The price of platinum jewelry is reported at 564 RMB per gram, while gold bars are priced at 1043 RMB per gram [7] Group 3 - The rapid increase in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including market expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut, rising global geopolitical uncertainties, continued central bank gold purchases, and expanded inflows into gold ETFs [8] - Several institutions have recently raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential rise to $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 under baseline scenarios [8] - In a "tail risk scenario," gold prices could reach $4500 per ounce, and if just 1% of U.S. private sector Treasury holdings were to flow into gold, prices could approach $5000 per ounce [8]

Group 1 - International gold prices continue to rise, with spot gold nearing $3690 and COMEX gold futures reaching a historical high of $3728 [1] - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3679.460 per ounce, up 0.01%, while COMEX gold futures are at $3719.8 per ounce, up 0.02% [1] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry brands have also seen price increases, with some reaching their highest levels of the year [3] - On September 16, the price of Chow Sang Sang gold jewelry reached 1091 RMB per gram, an increase of 17 RMB from the previous day, marking a yearly high [3] - Other brands such as Lao Miao, Lao Feng Xiang, and Chow Tai Fook also reported their highest prices of the year, with increases of 13 RMB, 12 RMB, and 9 RMB respectively [3] Group 3 - The rapid increase in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, including market expectations of an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate cut, rising global geopolitical uncertainties, continued central bank gold purchases, and expanded inflows into gold ETFs [8] - Several institutions have recently raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold could reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 under baseline scenarios [8] - In a "tail risk scenario," gold prices could potentially reach $4500 per ounce, and if just 1% of funds from the U.S. private treasury market flow into gold, prices could approach $5000 per ounce [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant increase in gold prices, both in the jewelry market and international futures, driven by various economic factors [1][2][3] Group 2 - On September 9, the price per gram of gold jewelry from major brands rose, with Chow Sang Sang at 1091 RMB (up 17 RMB), Lao Miao at 1087 RMB (up 11 RMB), and Chow Tai Fook at 1087 RMB (up 13 RMB) [1] - As of September 15, the COMEX gold futures price reached a record high of 3724.9 USD/ounce, closing at 3719.5 USD/ounce, marking a 1.05% increase [2] - The international gold price has surged over 40% this year, influenced by expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, rising global geopolitical uncertainties, continued central bank gold purchases, and increased inflows into gold ETFs [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after the weakening of the US employment market in August and relatively controllable inflation pressure in August, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September hit a new low since May, which supports the market to continue trading the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and boosts the strong rise of precious metal prices. Concerns about US economic stagflation are rising, boosting the industrial properties of silver. Before the interest - rate cut in September, precious metal prices are still supported and expected to remain strong at high levels, but volatility may intensify. Key events to watch this week include the Fed's August FOMC meeting and China - US economic and trade talks [6]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the de - dollarization wave with continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Price Tracking - On September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.5% to $3650.31/ounce, London silver spot rose 2.4% to $42.04/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.5% to $3688.50/ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.6% to $42.60/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.4% to 834.22 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 2.4% to 10035 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) rose 0.4% to 830.68 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 2.5% to 10010 yuan/kg [5]. - Regarding price differences, from September 11 to 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference increased by 7.9%, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 10.7%, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price difference increased by 31.8%, the silver internal - external (TD - London) price difference increased by 0.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.0%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.0%, the AU2512 - 2510 price difference increased by 20.4%, and the AG2512 - 2510 price difference increased by 13.0% [5]. 3.2 Position Data - From September 11 to 12, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position decreased by 0.32% to 974.8 tons, the silver ETF - SLV position remained unchanged at 15069.6026 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 2.87% to 324875 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 4.72% to 63135 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 4.89% to 261740 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 2.71% to 72450 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.16% to 18513 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 3.55% to 53937 contracts [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On September 12, 2025, compared with September 11, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.58% to 52950 kg, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.51% to 1246569 kg, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 38914491 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.55% to 527423230 troy ounces [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - From September 11 to 12, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate decreased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.09%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.14% to 3.56%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.25% to 4.06%, the VIX increased by 0.34%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.05% to 6584.29, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.58% to $62.60 [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On September 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.1% to 80.68 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.36% to 10035 yuan/kg [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market's risk - aversion demand has declined due to progress in tariff negotiations and the ECB's reduction of the September interest - rate cut expectation, as well as the Fed's likely on - hold stance in July, which suppresses precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and the Fed's possible rate cut in August, precious metal prices may not continue to fall. Silver may run bearishly in the short - term due to the general decline in commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates within the year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price and Spread Information - **Price**: On July 25, 2025, London gold spot was 3358.72, London silver spot was 774.70, AU (T + D) was 3360.30, COMEX silver was 9368.00, AG (T + D) was 773.17, COMEX gold was 9365.00, AU2508 was 39.30, and AG2508 was 39.08. Compared with July 24, the price changes were - 0.2%, - 0.2%, 0.1%, - 0.5%, - 0.1%, - 0.6%, 0.1%, - 0.2% respectively [3]. - **Spread**: On July 25, 2025, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 1.53, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 1.95, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 82.70, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3. Compared with July 24, the spread changes were - 1.3%, - 1.7%, - 0.3%, - 2.1% respectively [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Information - **Position**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 15230.42858, 253038, 957.09 respectively; COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial long positions were 311949, 58911, 85678 respectively. The gold ETF - SPDR position was 25058, and the silver ETF - SLV position was 60620 [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, 2025, SHFE silver inventory was 500320749 kg, SHFE gold inventory was 37762394 kg, COMEX silver inventory was 30258.00 ounces, and COMEX gold inventory was 1187254.00 ounces. Compared with July 24, the inventory changes were 0.39%, 0.51%, - 0.12%, 3.07% respectively [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The US July Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024 and the first contraction since then, far below the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 62.9. The new orders index preliminary value dropped to 49.7, the lowest since December last year. However, the US July Markit services PMI preliminary value was 5.2, far exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the employment sub - index preliminary value rose to 52.6 [3]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary month - on - month value was + 9.3%, higher than the expected - 0.7% [3]. 3.4 Other News - Trump said he thought Powell would cut interest rates, had a good talk with Powell about interest rates, and that the economic situation was good [3]. - On July 26, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia entered the third day, causing hundreds of casualties [3]. - Trump said he would issue nearly 200 tariff letters with tariff rates of 10% or 15%, was unclear about the prospects of a US - EU agreement, and might impose tariffs on Canada directly. He also said more fine - tuning would be done on the US - UK trade agreement, but there was little room for negotiation on steel and aluminum [3]. 3.5 Market Performance - On July 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.88% to 777.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.31% to 9392 yuan/kg [3].