Core Viewpoint - The ongoing escalation of the situation in Iran may impact the international commodity market due to Iran's significant role as a producer of energy, minerals, and agricultural products [1]. Group 1: Commodity Production Impact - Iran's production share in global output for various commodities such as methanol, fuel oil, iron ore, urea, and crude oil is notably high, indicating potential supply fluctuations that could affect global markets [1].

Core Insights - The article explores the lives and strategies of some of the most famous futures traders, highlighting their innovative methods, risk management techniques, and discipline, which provide valuable lessons for traders and investors [1][13]. Group 1: Richard Dennis - Richard Dennis, known as the "King of Trading," turned a small loan into over $200 million by his early 30s and is famous for the "Turtle Traders" experiment, proving that trading can be taught [2][4]. - His breakout strategy involves buying when prices break above a certain level and selling when they fall below, based on the assumption that trends tend to continue [4]. - Dennis emphasizes strict risk management, typically risking only 1-2% of his capital on any single trade, which helps him survive consecutive losses [4]. - He adjusts position sizes based on market volatility, increasing positions in low-volatility markets and decreasing them in high-volatility ones [4]. - Quick stop-loss orders are a key rule for Dennis, ensuring that losses are kept to a minimum [4]. Group 2: Paul Tudor Jones - Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp, is renowned for predicting and profiting from the 1987 stock market crash, reportedly tripling his funds that day [2][6]. - His global macro trading strategy involves making large bets across multiple asset classes based on macroeconomic trends, including futures [6]. - Jones values technical analysis alongside macroeconomic analysis, looking for chart patterns and signals for entry and exit points [6]. - He often takes contrarian positions, betting against prevailing market sentiment, believing that the best investment opportunities arise when market consensus is wrong [6]. - Dynamic risk management is central to his strategy, involving strict stop-losses and adjusting position sizes based on market volatility and confidence in trades [6]. Group 3: John W. Henry - John W. Henry, a legendary futures trader and owner of the Boston Red Sox and Liverpool FC, is known for his systematic, algorithm-driven trading approach [3][8]. - His trading strategy is based on systematic trend following, focusing on a wide range of futures markets to diversify risk and capture various market trends [8]. - Henry implements strict risk management rules, including capital allocation limits per trade and using stop-loss orders to protect against significant losses [8]. - He adopts a long-term perspective, willing to hold positions through drawdowns, believing in the long-term profitability of his strategies [8]. - Continuous research and development are crucial to his success, as he adapts his trading systems based on historical data and market behavior [8]. Group 4: Ed Seykota - Ed Seykota, an influential futures trader, is recognized for developing and implementing computerized trading systems in the 1970s [3][10]. - His strategy combines systematic trend following with emotional discipline, using automated systems to generate trading signals based on technical indicators and historical data [10]. - Seykota emphasizes the importance of position management in risk control, adjusting trade sizes based on market volatility to prevent significant damage to the overall portfolio [10]. - He is known for his focus on trading psychology, stressing the need to manage emotions and adhere to trading systems even during losing periods [10]. - Quick stop-loss orders are central to Seykota's strategy, allowing for rapid exits from losing trades to prevent small losses from escalating [10]. Group 5: Larry Williams - Larry Williams, a renowned commodity and futures trader, is famous for his short-term trading strategies and winning multiple trading competitions [3][12]. - His strategy focuses on short-term trading and precise market timing, particularly in commodity futures [12]. - Williams utilizes seasonal patterns in commodities as part of his trading approach [12]. - He emphasizes risk control, likening traders to warriors who need shields to protect themselves from losses, advocating for strong capital management [12]. - Williams believes that trading strategies should be personalized, akin to finding the right pair of shoes that fit well, rather than adhering to universally accepted methods [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various tools and reports designed to assist users in observing and analyzing futures market opportunities and macroeconomic trends, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in trading [1][3]. Group 1: Research Phase - The tool "China Futures Market Volatility Observation" helps users observe the volatility of different futures varieties at various frequencies, making it relatively easy to use [3]. - "China Macro Value Relative Arbitrage" assists users in observing arbitrage opportunities from a macro perspective, categorized as an advanced tool [3]. - "China Futures Market Cross-Variety Arbitrage Tool" enables users to identify trading opportunities in cross-variety arbitrage, also classified as advanced [3]. - "China Futures Market Cross-Period Price Difference Arbitrage Tool" aids in observing trading opportunities in price differences of a single variety, categorized as advanced [3]. - "China Futures Market On-Site Options" helps users identify trading opportunities in futures options, classified as advanced [3]. - The "Global Macro Asset Climate Report" assists users in summarizing weekly market trends and anomalies globally, categorized as relatively easy to use [3]. Group 2: Pre-Trading Phase - "Trading Plan and Review" helps users clarify the target trading variety, entry basis, expected profit and loss, and position calculation, categorized as relatively easy [3]. - "Trading Position Calculation" assists users in calculating trading positions based on the Average True Range (ATR) of various trading varieties, categorized as relatively easy [3]. Group 3: Trading Phase - "Portfolio & Trading Management" is suitable for single market traders, assisting in managing investment portfolio risks, categorized as relatively easy [3]. - "Investment Portfolio Management Tool" is designed for multi-market and multi-asset traders, helping manage total and sub-asset account returns and risks, categorized as advanced [3]. Group 4: Review Phase - The "Trading Day's Memo" report helps users summarize daily market trends and anomalies, categorized as relatively easy [3].

来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 棉花 白糖 菜籽 大豆 玉米 生猪 | | | 交易理想国星球杜群特供:期货&全球宏观交易全流程辅助工具&报告 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 工具表格或报告 | 目的 | 使用难度 | 使用说明 | 是否需连接外部数据源 | | 研究阶段 | 《中国期货市场品种波动属性》 | 协助用户观察期货各品种不同频度下的波动 数据 | 较易 | 待上新 | KI | | | 《中国宏观价值相对套利》 | 协助用户观察宏观视角下各套利对品种的交 易机会 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 《中国期货市场跨品种套利工具表》 | 协助用户观察期货跨品种套利的交易机会 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 《中国期货市场跨期价差套利工具表》 | 协助用户观察期货单品种跨价差的交易机会 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 《中国期货市场场内期权》 | 协助用户观察期货期权品种的的交易机会 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 交易理 ...

PTA PVC 乙二醇 烧碱 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 原油 甲醇 尿素 | | | 交易理想国星球社群特供:期货&全球宏观交易全流程辅助工具&报告 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 工具表格或报告 | 目ผ | 使用难度 | 使用说明 | 是否需连接外部数据源 | | 研究阶段 | 《中国期货市场品种波动属性》 | 协助用户观察期货各品种不同频度下的波动 数据 | 较易 | 待上新 | る | | | 《中国宏观价值相对套利》 | 协助用户观察宏观视角下各套利对品种的交 易机会 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 《中国期货市场跨品种套利工具表》 | 协助用户观察期货跨品种套利的交易机会 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 《中国期货市场跨期价差套利工具表》 | 协助用户观察期货单品种跨价差的交易机会 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | | 《中国期货市场场内期权》 | 协助用户观察期货期权品种的的交易机会 | 进阶 | 待上新 | 实时行情数据 | | ...