概览：7 月高频指标显示关税豁免期前，出口或有所回升；同时，7 月财经委会议提及"反内卷"后，部分行业过度生产有所遏制，工业 增加值增速或有回落；考虑到地产成交仍偏弱，居民部门信贷需求或 延续同比少增、而社融主要受地方债发行同比多增支撑。此外，部分 商品价格上涨叠加基数回落或有望推动 PPI 同比降幅收窄，8 月后收 窄幅度或更明显。 工业：我们预计 7 月规模以上工业增加值同比增速从 6 月的 6.8%略回落至 5.8%左右。高频数据显示，7 月高炉/焦化开工率同比变化+0.83/-0.4 个百分 点，增速较 6 月放缓。7 月制造业 PMI 较 6 月的 49.7%回落至 49.3%，弱 于季节性水平。考虑到 7 月战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数（EPMI）及中 国企业经营状况指数（BCI）环比分别回落 1.1/1.6 个点至 46.8/47.7，以及 "反内卷"对部分行业过度生产的抑制，制造业景气度回升的基础仍待夯实。 消费：购物节错位的影响消退后、我们预计 7 月社零总额同比增速小幅回升 至 5.2%左右。暑期出游及家电销售相对较强，而汽车销量增速退坡。暑期 出游拉动服务性消费增长，7 月 1 日至 2 ...

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.14%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of July is at 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from June[7] - The real estate sales area in 30 major cities has a year-on-year growth rate of -26.5%, worsening from June's -10.6%[7] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry is 64.56% for full steel tires and 72.92% for semi-steel tires, with increases of 0.81 and 2.51 percentage points respectively[15] - The coastal power plants' load rate reached an average of 85.00%, up 2.29 percentage points from the previous week[14] Export and Trade - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The total export amount for South Korea in early July shows a year-on-year growth of 9.50%, up 4.60 percentage points from June[30] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.97%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[10] - The net monetary withdrawal for the week is 2265 billion yuan, with 4257 billion yuan in reverse repos conducted[40] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, and the effectiveness of new policies may fall short of market expectations[47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have changed little, with stable production in plate mills. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 0.90 million tons, remaining stable at a high level, and the supply pressure has not eased. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils is weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing slightly by 1.88 million tons. The high-frequency transactions have increased under the stimulation of speculative demand, and the cold-rolled production of major downstream industries remains at a high level, which alleviates the industrial contradiction and supports the demand for hot-rolled coils. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, due to the renewed fermentation of policy-friendly expectations, the price of hot-rolled coils will maintain a relatively strong operation in the short term, but beware of the trading logic switching to the industrial side [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 328.14 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.90 million tons, and an increase of 0.90 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 1.85 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.29%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.54 percentage points, and a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 1.21 percentage points [2] Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 324.37 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.88 million tons, and a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 6.67 million tons. The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 88.23 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 million tons, and an increase of 0.17 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it increased by 2.71 million tons [2] Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 344.93 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.77 million tons, and an increase of 3.77 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 76.46 million tons. The in-plant inventory is 78.32 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.10 million tons, and an increase of 0.10 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 12.03 million tons. The social inventory is 266.61 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.67 million tons, and an increase of 3.67 million tons from the end of last month. Compared with the same period, it decreased by 64.43 million tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by U.S. Chief Negotiator Bessent regarding the extension of the tariff exemption period reveals the U.S. government's urgent desire to reach trade agreements with its partners, highlighting its vulnerabilities in international trade negotiations [1][11]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Negotiation Strategy - Bessent's early departure from the London talks was to return to Washington to testify before Congress, but the real intent was to encourage other trade partners to engage in negotiations with the U.S. [3] - Currently, 18 major trade partners are in negotiations with the U.S., and the government is willing to extend deadlines for those genuinely interested in reaching agreements [3][5]. - The "final deadline" refers to the 90-day exemption period announced by Trump, which is set to end on July 9, after which tariffs will be imposed [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing the Extension Decision - The U.S. is feeling pressure as the 90-day exemption period is nearing its end, and there are few countries willing to negotiate, prompting the need for an extension to save face internationally [5]. - The success of the U.S.-China talks in London provides a favorable backdrop for the U.S. to encourage other trade partners to negotiate, presenting a united front after dealing with China [7]. - Bessent's advocacy for the exemption period means that failing to secure substantial trade agreements within this timeframe could jeopardize his political career and the administration's credibility [7]. Group 3: Implications of the Announcement - The decision to extend the exemption period may expose the U.S.'s urgent need for trade agreements, potentially backfiring and revealing weaknesses in its negotiation stance [11]. - The successful outcomes of the U.S.-China negotiations may lead other countries to adjust their negotiation strategies with the U.S., making future negotiations more challenging for the Trump administration [11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is pressuring trade partners to present their best negotiation terms before the July 8 deadline for tariff exemptions, indicating a sense of urgency in trade negotiations [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Trade Negotiation Strategy - The U.S. Trade Representative's draft letter outlines key areas of concern, including tariffs on U.S. products, quotas for purchasing U.S. agricultural goods, and non-tariff trade barriers [2]. - Potential recipients of the letter include the EU, Japan, Vietnam, and India, with the U.S. planning to evaluate the proposed terms quickly to determine possible trade agreements [2][3]. Group 2: Urgency and Challenges - The urgency in negotiations reflects the Trump administration's desire to finalize trade agreements before the expiration of the 90-day tariff exemption period [3][4]. - Despite claims of progress, actual negotiations have seen limited advancement, with only a framework agreement reached with the UK [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The unpredictability of U.S. tariff policies has caused significant volatility in the stock market, with major fluctuations observed in recent months [5]. - The potential reinstatement of tariffs could lead to market turmoil, while further delays may reinforce negative perceptions of the administration's trade strategy [5].