□本报记者 张舒琳 9月以来，创新药板块持续调整。港股创新药相关指数跌幅已超过20%，部分未盈利的公司跌幅尤为突 出，已跌超40%。在市场习惯了创新药商业拓展（BD）交易的宏大叙事后，投资者的情绪阈值明显提 升，与之相伴的是前期大量涌入的资金开始退出。此外，今年以来，港股创新药企业IPO数量及融资额 大增，市场人士对此颇有争议。 在业内人士看来，创新药行业长期的贝塔逻辑不变，但定价的重心需要回归企业本身。 融资额大幅增长 12月30日，英矽智能即将登陆港股主板，根据发行价估算，英矽智能或成为今年港股市场最大的生物科 技IPO项目。不过，英矽智能尚无商业化进展，根据招股书，其药物开发及商业化能否实现以及具体实 现的节点均存在较大不确定性。 这是近期港股创新药IPO的代表性案例。今年以来，港股创新药企业融资额大幅增长，IPO及增发规模 十分火热。德勤中国资本市场服务部最新发布的报告显示，2025年港股市场预计完成114只新股上市， 融资额约2863亿港元，是2024年融资额的三倍有余。其中，医疗及医药行业融资额252亿港元，较2024 年增长了220亿港元。全年预计有14只未盈利的生物科技公司在港上市，较2024 ...

本报讯 （记者金婉霞）今年11月份以来，创新药在经历短暂回调后再度出现小幅回升迹象。以作为行业风向标的港股市场 来看，中证香港创新药全收益指数（HKD）于上周内（11月24日至11月28日）实现4.95%的涨幅，较恒生指数同期内2.53%的 涨幅高出2.42个百分点。对此，摩根大通大中华区医疗健康行业研究主管黄旸表示，在本轮调整之前，创新药总体行业估值确 实可能已超过合理区间，但尚未形成泡沫；经过调整后，目前行业估值更趋近于合理水平。 （编辑 张昕） "我们观察到，目前IPO市场仍然火热，IPO一方面可为创新提供资金支持，另一方面也会刺激更多人投入到创新药产业， 从而形成良性循环。"黄旸称。 从IPO市场来看，据不完全统计，截至11月24日，今年以来处于申请处理、已递表待审及准备递表阶段的生物医药企业总 数突破80家，创历史新高；同时，年初至今已有23家医药健康企业顺利登陆港股。 黄旸还注意到，到2026年时，中国"出海"创新药的海外三期临床试验数据将陆续出炉，若数据符合或优于预期，这将进一 步增强全球市场对中国创新药开发能力的信心。 黄旸进一步表示，"出海"交易仍将是支撑创新药估值的重要动力。"当前，大型跨 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Innovative Drug Valuation Framework Industry Overview - The innovative drug industry is experiencing significant policy support from the government, marking the beginning of a new knowledge cycle since early 2024 [2][4] - The health of the medical insurance fund provides a broad development outlook for the domestic innovative drug market, with room for growth in the sales proportion of newly negotiated innovative drugs [2][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Policy Changes**: A series of favorable policies for innovative drug development have been introduced since early 2024, which are expected to reshape valuations in the industry [2][4] - **Insurance Fund Health**: The medical insurance fund's surplus and surplus rate remain healthy, indicating low future payment pressure and a promising market for innovative drugs [4] - **International Recognition**: Chinese innovative drugs have gained significant international recognition, with record numbers of presentations at major conferences like ACR and ASCO, enhancing global influence and fostering collaborations with overseas companies [2][4] - **Business Development (BD) Transactions**: The quantity and quality of BD transactions in China have significantly improved, with transaction amounts and upfront payments showing a clear upward trend. Heavyweight deals (over $1 billion) account for nearly 20% of global transactions [5][6] - **Profitability Outlook**: Companies like Innovent Biologics and Baillie Gifford are expected to achieve profitability by 2025, indicating a shift towards a profitable cycle for the entire innovative drug sector [2][8] Valuation Insights - **Valuation Multiples**: Current valuation adjustments for domestic innovative drug companies can be based on a 5x Price-to-Sales (PS) multiple, an increase from the previous 3x benchmark, reflecting higher profit margins and certainty for certain products [3][17] - **Factors Influencing PS Multiples**: Key factors affecting PS multiples include profit margins, product launch speed, and discount rates. Higher profit margins and faster product launches lead to higher valuations [11][12][15][16] Future Development Prospects - The future of the Chinese innovative drug market appears optimistic, supported by ongoing favorable policies and the ability of Chinese companies to produce high-quality products for global markets [6][10] - The trend of dual outbound strategies for Chinese innovative drug companies is becoming a certainty, with many companies achieving multiple transactions annually, enhancing their profitability and valuation [10] Additional Important Insights - **NCC Recognition**: The increasing recognition and importance of innovative drug products by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCC) is expected to drive more significant transactions in the sector [7] - **New Transaction Models**: The emergence of new transaction models, such as the "6扣" model, allows Chinese companies to collaborate with overseas funds and investors, addressing cash flow issues and facilitating product development [7] - **Investment Attraction**: Companies in early clinical stages can attract substantial funding due to the large market potential and high success probabilities associated with their products [19]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Weisheng Pharmaceutical has been stagnant since its listing on the Hong Kong stock market, reflecting a typical scenario of valuation logic in the innovative drug industry and short-term market dynamics [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Weisheng Pharmaceutical's core product, Longpei growth hormone, is in the final stage of approval, with commercial potential yet to be realized, leading to a lack of patience from short-term investors [1] - The total trading volume since the IPO is approximately 700 million HKD, with a turnover rate of about 11%, indicating that new investors are currently inactive after the initial trading [1][2] - The upcoming expiration of the first lock-up period for new shares is creating a temporary stalemate between bullish and bearish forces in the market [3] Group 2: Clinical and Commercial Potential - Longpei growth hormone is the only long-acting growth hormone clinically proven to outperform daily formulations, with its approval process nearing completion, which is seen as a significant breakthrough [6][8] - The product has demonstrated substantial commercial potential in overseas markets, with sales reaching 202 million euros and capturing 45% of the long-acting segment in the U.S. market [8] - The Chinese market presents a favorable environment for Longpei growth hormone, with a projected market size of 21.1 billion CNY by 2030, where capturing just one-third of the market could yield sales of 7 billion CNY [9] Group 3: Valuation Logic - The valuation of innovative drug companies typically follows a dynamic assessment framework based on clinical stage progression and the scarcity of indications, with late-stage assets commanding a premium [11][12] - Weisheng Pharmaceutical's pipeline is at a critical value release point, with major institutions projecting target prices between 80-82 HKD, reflecting a rational expectation of the product's market entry [12][13] - The company’s other two core pipelines also hold significant value, with unique treatments for rare diseases that are expected to enhance the overall valuation [14] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The current divergence between short-term market sentiment and the company's intrinsic value presents an opportunity for value investors to identify certainty in the market [15] - As the year-end approaches, Weisheng Pharmaceutical is set to benefit from multiple positive factors, including product approval and capacity release, transitioning from a "story-driven" phase to one focused on "performance verification" [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a stable revenue of 0.37 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 0.20 billion yuan [4][7] - The review progress of Sedomin injection is on track, with expectations for commercialization by the end of 2025, although approval may be delayed to H1 2026 due to the innovative nature of the drug [7] - The company is actively preparing for the commercialization of Sedomin injection, including establishing a sales subsidiary and developing a patient support system [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 72 million yuan - 2025 H1: 37 million yuan - 2025E: 70 million yuan - 2026E: 173 million yuan - 2027E: 375 million yuan - The expected net profit for 2025E is -0.50 billion yuan, with a projected increase in revenue driven by the launch of Sedomin injection [6][9] - The gross margin is expected to be 49.6% in 2025E, increasing to 71.5% by 2027E [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Viewpoints - The innovative drug sector has shown excellent performance year-to-date, with significant growth potential in both domestic and overseas markets. The report estimates that by 2030, the domestic innovative drug market could reach approximately 446 billion yuan in revenue, translating to a market valuation of 13,380 to 22,300 billion yuan based on a peak PS multiple of 3-5 times [2][15][19] - The overseas market is also promising, with cumulative contract amounts for domestic innovative drug overseas licensing transactions reaching 193.8 billion yuan by June 2025. Assuming a conservative success rate of 50%, the expected sales share could contribute around 14.5 billion USD, leading to a market valuation of 10,175 to 20,349 billion yuan based on a peak PE multiple of 10-20 times [2][20][21] - The current market capitalization of the innovative drug sector is approximately 31,023 billion yuan, which reflects a neutral expectation of future growth. The report suggests that the sector is on track to break even by 2026, driven by improved fundamentals and ongoing overseas licensing deals [3][24][28] Summary by Sections 1. Current Valuation Levels of the Innovative Drug Sector - The domestic market is projected to achieve a sales scale of 446 billion yuan by 2030, corresponding to a market valuation of 13,380 to 22,300 billion yuan [15][19] - The overseas market's existing BD transaction sales share is expected to reach 14.5 billion USD, leading to a valuation of 10,175 to 20,349 billion yuan [20][21] - The current market capitalization of the innovative drug sector is about 31,023 billion yuan, indicating that it reflects a neutral expectation of future growth [24][25] 2. Long-term Growth Logic - The innovative drug sector is expected to break even by 2026, with significant improvements in the fundamentals of domestic companies [28] - The sector has seen a 36% year-on-year increase in revenue, with 69 domestic biotech companies generating 924.3 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 [28][32] - The number of companies generating over 100 million yuan in revenue is also increasing, indicating a positive trend in commercialization [28][34] 3. Potential Catalysts in the Second Half of 2025 - Key catalysts include ongoing negotiations for medical insurance, academic conferences, and the introduction of innovative drug catalogs in commercial insurance [3][4] - The report highlights that approximately 60 new approved domestic drugs are expected to participate in medical insurance negotiations this year [4][10] 4. Investment Strategies - The report suggests identifying potential heavyweights for overseas licensing, focusing on companies with high certainty for future overseas volume, and monitoring those benefiting from medical insurance negotiations [9][50] - Companies such as Innovent Biologics, Zai Lab, and others are highlighted as potential candidates for overseas licensing opportunities [9][50]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **innovative drug industry** in China, highlighting its growth and international recognition, particularly in the context of major academic conferences like ASR and ASCO [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Policy Support**: Since early 2024, favorable policies have been introduced to support the pharmaceutical industry, positively impacting the valuation of innovative drugs [2][3]. - **International Recognition**: The number of Chinese companies and new drugs showcased at the 2025 ASR and ASCO conferences reached record highs, indicating increased international recognition and collaboration opportunities [1][2][4]. - **Medicare Fund Health**: The Medicare fund is operating well, with a healthy surplus rate, which reduces future payment pressures. New innovative drugs entering negotiations from 2018 to 2024 accounted for only 2% of total fund expenditures, suggesting significant growth potential in the market [1][5]. - **Leading Fields**: China holds a leading position in areas such as ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates), monoclonal antibodies, bispecific antibodies, and gene therapy, contributing to the establishment of global competitiveness [1][6]. - **Significant Transactions**: Notable transactions in the innovative drug sector include the licensing of TCE bispecific antibodies from Tongren Pharmaceutical to Merck, with an upfront payment of $700 million, reflecting increased recognition from multinational companies [1][7]. Additional Important Content - **Emerging "留扣" Model**: This new transaction model allows Chinese companies to license products or establish small companies overseas to collaborate with foreign funds, alleviating cash flow pressures and potentially leading to profitable sales in the U.S. market [3][8][9]. - **Profitability Expectations**: Companies like Innovent Biologics and BeiGene are expected to achieve profitability by 2025, indicating that the innovative drug sector is entering a profitable cycle, which may attract more investors [3][10]. - **Impact of Business Development (BD)**: BD activities significantly contribute to company performance, as high-quality research outputs gain international recognition, leading to more licensing deals and collaborations with multinational corporations [11]. - **Valuation Methods**: The common methods for evaluating innovative drug companies include RNPV (Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value) and simplified peak sales multiples, which consider various factors such as discount rates and growth rates [12][17]. - **Factors Influencing PS Multiples**: Key factors affecting the PS multiples include profit margins, product launch speeds, success rates of R&D, and discount rates, all of which have shown positive trends in the innovative drug sector [15][16][18]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and developments within the innovative drug industry as discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current landscape and future prospects.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **innovative drug industry**, focusing on valuation methods, market dynamics, and the competitive landscape in China and the U.S. [1][8][10] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Valuation Methodology**: - Innovative drug valuation requires detailed breakdowns of indications, market assessment, and product positioning, integrating both objective data and subjective judgment [1][3][4] - The peak sales calculation must consider diagnosis rates, treatment rates, market share, duration of treatment (DOT), and pricing, confirmed with expert opinions [7][8] 2. **Sales Performance**: - The sales of **Fumetinin** exceeded expectations, with an increase in DOT from 1.1 years to 1.3 years, although market share fluctuated due to competition and patent issues [5][6] - The first-year sales of major drugs entering the insurance list often exceed 1 billion RMB, with subsequent years showing significant growth [12][13] 3. **Market Dynamics**: - The Chinese market for innovative drugs has a longer commercialization ramp-up period compared to the U.S., with a typical annual growth rate of around 15% for many drugs [8] - The market is highly concentrated, with the top two players often holding 60%-70% market share in their respective categories [11] 4. **Pricing Strategies**: - In China, the first-year pricing for innovative drugs typically caps at 150,000 RMB, reflecting a balance between affordability and market acceptance [10] - Pricing is influenced by negotiations with health insurance and collective procurement policies, leading to annual price fluctuations [6][9] 5. **Risk Assessment**: - Risk adjustment values for marketed indications are set at one, while those in clinical phases may be discounted significantly (e.g., 80% discount for phase III indications) [6][7] - The success rates for drug development vary significantly by disease type, with hematological malignancies showing higher success rates compared to solid tumors [15][16] Additional Important Insights 1. **Commercialization Advantages**: - Early market entrants often capture significant market share, emphasizing the importance of first-mover advantages in the commercialization process [12][14] - The average gross margin for small molecules is around 95%, with sales expenses in China ranging from 30% to 40% [14] 2. **Market Sentiment**: - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in the valuation of innovative drug companies, with positive sentiment leading to higher valuations for early-stage products [21][23] - The current financing environment has improved, allowing companies with early-stage products to secure funding and advance their development [24][25] 3. **Comparative Success Rates**: - The success rates for drug approval differ across disease categories, with blood cancers having a notably higher success rate compared to cardiovascular and CNS diseases [16][19] 4. **Future Outlook**: - The innovative drug sector is characterized by a self-reinforcing cycle where favorable market conditions lead to increased funding and development, while adverse conditions can stifle progress [25][26] This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the innovative drug industry's current landscape and future prospects.

Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has seen significant growth this year, with the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index rising over 124% since the beginning of the year, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Innovative Drug Index increasing over 80% [2][3] - There is a growing divergence in opinions among fund managers regarding the valuation of innovative drugs, with some expressing caution and suggesting profit-taking, while others remain optimistic about future growth [2][11] Fund Performance - As of July 29, 2023, 16 funds have reported returns exceeding 100%, all heavily invested in the innovative drug sector [5] - The fund managed by Zhang Wei, Huatai-PineBridge Hong Kong Advantage Selection, leads with a 139% return [5] - The total scale of funds focused on innovative drugs has increased from 111 billion yuan to 366 billion yuan this year, marking a growth of over 200% [5] Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector has attracted significant investor interest, with the scale of the Huatai-PineBridge National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF rising from less than 700 million yuan to nearly 8 billion yuan in the first half of the year [5] - The innovative drug index has seen a net inflow of 172 billion yuan, making it one of the highest net buying sectors this year [5][6] Valuation Concerns - Some fund managers, like Wan Minyuan from Rongtong Fund, have raised concerns about the high valuations of A-share innovative drug stocks, suggesting that many companies may have reached their peak valuations [11][12] - There is a belief that the current market is experiencing a bubble, with excessive speculation on early-stage clinical drugs [11][12] Long-term Outlook - The innovative drug sector is viewed as a critical area for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by technological advancements and supportive policies [10][14] - Fund managers emphasize the importance of selecting companies with strong technological capabilities and sustainable clinical value to navigate potential market volatility [2][14]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a collective rise, particularly in the innovative drug sector, with leading CXO company WuXi AppTec seeing a significant increase in stock price after its earnings report [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market is showing strong performance, with the innovative drug sector leading the gains, particularly the CXO segment [1]. - WuXi AppTec's stock rose over 13% following its earnings report, contributing to the overall strength of the CXO sector [1][3]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (159570) increased by 1.4%, with trading volume surpassing 1.6 billion RMB, and has attracted over 5 billion RMB in the last 60 days [1][3]. Group 2: Company Earnings - WuXi AppTec reported an expected revenue of 20.8 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 20.64% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be around 8.561 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of about 101.92% [3]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to be approximately 6.315 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 44.43% [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Fengzheng Securities, the innovative drug sector is expected to enter a new upcycle, driven by the recovery of domestic demand and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [4]. - The CDMO sector is anticipated to recover quickly due to its reliance on orders from large overseas pharmaceutical companies [4]. - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the CDMO industry has reached a bottom and is poised for recovery, with strong performance expected in 2025 [4]. Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The upcoming commercial insurance policy for innovative drugs is expected to open up long-term payment avenues for the sector [7]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration has emphasized comprehensive policy support for innovative drugs, which is likely to enhance their market potential [7]. - The commercial health insurance market in China is projected to grow significantly, with premium income expected to reach 977.3 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [7]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (159570) has a high concentration in innovative drug companies, with the top ten holdings accounting for nearly 72% of the index [8]. - The ETF has shown a remarkable performance, with a 62.78% increase in the first half of 2025, outperforming other medical indices [8]. - The underlying assets of the ETF are Hong Kong stocks, allowing for T+0 trading, which enhances liquidity for investors [8].