Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 129.6 points (previous value: 129.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.0 points. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds is 3.5% (previous value: 3.2%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 128.1 (previous value: 128.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index for commercial housing sales is 40.2 (previous value: 40.3), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.6 points, and the year - on - year decrease remains unchanged; the high - frequency index for infrastructure investment is 121.9 (previous value: 121.9), with a week - on - week increase of 7.9 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged; the high - frequency index for exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 points, and the year - on - year decrease widens; the high - frequency index for consumption is 121.5 (previous value: 121.4), with a week - on - week increase of 3.6 points, and the year - on - year increase widens [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly - on - monthly CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly - on - monthly PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 164.3 (previous value: 164.2), with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged; the high - frequency transportation index is 135.1 (previous value: 134.7), with a week - on - week increase of 11.3 points, and the year - on - year increase widens; the high - frequency financing index is 248.4 (previous value: 247.8), with a week - on - week increase of 31.2 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 129.6 points (previous value: 129.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.0 points. The long - short signal factor for interest - rate bonds is 3.5% (previous value: 3.2%) [1][9]. 2. Production: Semi - tire Operating Rate Increases - The industrial production high - frequency index is 128.1 (previous value: 128.0), with a week - on - week increase of 4.8 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The semi - tire operating rate is 74.6% (previous value: 73.4%) [1][9][13]. 3. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Drops Slightly - The high - frequency index for commercial housing sales is 40.2 (previous value: 40.3), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.6 points. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 16.6 square meters (previous value: 18.5 square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 1.6% (previous value: 1.4%) [1][9][26]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Declines - The high - frequency index for infrastructure investment is 121.9 (previous value: 121.9), with a week - on - week increase of 7.9 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The asphalt operating rate is 26.8% (previous value: 27.2%) [1][9][41]. 5. Exports: RJ/CRB Index Rises - The high - frequency index for exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 points, and the year - on - year decrease widens. The RJ/CRB index is 309.1 points (previous value: 304.3 points) [1][9][45]. 6. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Drops - The high - frequency index for consumption is 121.5 (previous value: 121.4), with a week - on - week increase of 3.6 points, and the year - on - year increase widens. The daily average movie box office is 4142.0 million yuan (previous value: 4577.7 million yuan) [1][9][54]. 7. CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index Rebounds - The monthly - on - monthly CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.1%). The average wholesale price of pork is 18.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.0 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables is 5.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.5 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 kinds of key - monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.9 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.4 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.7 yuan/kg) [1][60][9]. 8. PPI: Raw Material Prices Drop Slightly - The monthly - on - monthly PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%). The ex - warehouse price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 687.6 yuan/ton (previous value: 699.6 yuan/ton), the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64.8 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 64.8 US dollars/barrel), the spot settlement price of LME copper is 12901.9 US dollars/ton (previous value: 13232.0 US dollars/ton), and the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 3137.6 US dollars/ton (previous value: 3184.3 US dollars/ton) [1][67][9]. 9. Transportation: Highway Logistics Index Rises - The high - frequency transportation index is 135.1 (previous value: 134.7), with a week - on - week increase of 11.3 points, and the year - on - year increase widens. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 3847.3 million person - times (previous value: 3916.1 million person - times), the highway logistics freight rate index is 1066.4 points (previous value: 1052.3 points), and the number of domestic flights is 12981.0 flights (previous value: 12736.9 flights) [2][80][10]. 10. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Drops Slightly - The high - frequency inventory index is 164.3 (previous value: 164.2), with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The soda ash inventory is 153.3 tons (previous value: 157.0 tons) [2][89][10]. 11. Financing: Local Government Bonds and Credit Bonds Financing Increases - The high - frequency financing index is 248.4 (previous value: 247.8), with a week - on - week increase of 31.2 points, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local government bonds is 2031.6 billion yuan (previous value: 655.7 billion yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 1434.9 billion yuan (previous value: 399.9 billion yuan) [2][100][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9]. - Industrial production maintains stable growth, with the industrial production high-frequency index at 128.0, and a week-on-week increase of 4.8 points, the same as the previous period [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the decline in the high-frequency index of commercial housing sales has widened, the growth rate of the high-frequency index of infrastructure investment has narrowed, the decline in the high-frequency index of exports has expanded, and the growth rate of the high-frequency index of consumption remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month-on-month forecast of CPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%); the month-on-month forecast of PPI is -0.1% (previous value: -0.1%) [1][9]. - The high-frequency index of inventory, transportation, and financing has increased, with the growth rate expanding [2][10]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The Guosheng Fundamental High-Frequency Index is stable, with a current value of 129.5 points (previous value: 129.4 points), and a week-on-week increase of 6.1 points. The long-short signal factor for interest rate bonds is 3.2% (previous value: 3.1%) [1][9] Production - The electric furnace operating rate has increased to 63.5% (previous value: 61.9%); the polyester operating rate is 87.2% (previous value: 87.5%); the semi-steel tire operating rate is 73.4% (previous value: 65.9%); the all-steel tire operating rate is 62.9% (previous value: 58.0%); the PX operating rate is 90.5% (previous value: 89.1%) [16] Real Estate Sales - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has slightly increased, reaching 18.5 million square meters (previous value: 16.9 million square meters); the land premium rate of 100 large and medium-sized cities is 1.4% (previous value: 0.4%) [29] Infrastructure Investment - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt has slightly increased to 27.2% (previous value: 25.4%) [42] Exports - The RJ/CRB index has increased to 304.3 points (previous value: 301.8 points) [45] Consumption - The average daily movie box office has decreased to 45.777 million yuan (previous value: 53.561 million yuan) [54] CPI - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.0 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables is 5.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key monitored fruits is 7.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white-striped chickens is 17.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.7 yuan/kg) [61] PPI - The ex - warehouse price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port (produced in Shanxi) is 699.6 yuan/ton (previous value: 690.7 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64.8 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 61.6 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 13,232.0 US dollars/ton (previous value: 13,048.7 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 3,184.3 US dollars/ton (previous value: 3,093.7 US dollars/ton) [65] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in first-tier cities is 39.161 million person - times (previous value: 40.448 million person - times); the road logistics freight rate index is 1052.3 points (previous value: 1051.9 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,736.9 (previous value: 12,494.3) [79] Inventory - The soda ash inventory has slightly increased to 1.57 million tons (previous value: 1.541 million tons) [90] Financing - The net financing of local government bonds is 65.57 billion yuan (previous value: 117.66 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 39.99 billion yuan (previous value: 131.04 billion yuan) [101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the lack of some high - frequency data during the festival, there is no forecast value for the current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is下调, with the signal factor at 3.1% (previous value was 3.2%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.9, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 127.8, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 4.9 points [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.5, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 points compared to the previous value of 40.7, and the year - on - year decrease remains unchanged at 6.5 points; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 121.9, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 122.0, and the year - on - year increase narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7, remaining the same as the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.2, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 121.1, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 3.3 points [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month forecast of CPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.0%); the month - on - month forecast of PPI is 0.0% (previous value was 0.1%) [1][9]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.8, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point compared to the previous value of 163.7, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 7.4 points [1][10]. - The high - frequency financing index is 246.5, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 points compared to the previous value of 245.9, and the year - on - year increase rises [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - Based on the report "Fundamental High - Frequency Data - An Effective Tool for Bond Market Investment" published on September 5, 2023, Guosheng Securities constructed a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc., and built the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - indices [8]. - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, due to the lack of some high - frequency data during the festival, there is no forecast value for the current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is下调, with the signal factor at 3.1% (previous value was 3.2%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Overall Decline in Operating Rates During the Festival - The polyester operating rate is 86.0%, down from the previous value of 87.8%; the semi - tire operating rate is 69.4%, down from the previous value of 72.1%; the full - tire operating rate is 59.6%, down from the previous value of 62.0%; the PX operating rate is 88.4%, down from the previous value of 88.6%; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 50.6 tons, up from the previous value of 47.0 tons [17]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Slight Decline in Commercial Housing Transaction Area - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the current week is 390,000 square meters, down from the previous value of 420,000 square meters; the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 2.1%, up from the previous value of 1.2% [30]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: High - Frequency Index of Infrastructure Investment Remains Stable - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment in the current week is 121.9, down from the previous value of 122.0; the operating rate of petroleum asphalt is 27.4%, down from the previous value of 31.3% [39]. 3.5 Exports: Slight Decline in RJ/CRB Index - The high - frequency export index in the current week is 143.7, the same as the previous value; the RJ/CRB index is 299.9 points, down from the previous value of 300.6 points [46]. 3.6 Consumption: Increase in Average Daily Box Office of Movies - The average daily box office of movies is 166.12 million yuan, up from the previous value of 108.11 million yuan [58]. 3.7 CPI: Slight Increase in Pork Prices - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan per kilogram, up from the previous value of 17.5 yuan per kilogram; the latest average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.6 yuan per kilogram, down from the previous value of 5.8 yuan per kilogram; the latest average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.8 yuan per kilogram, the same as the previous value; the latest average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.7 yuan per kilogram, down from the previous value of 17.9 yuan per kilogram [65]. 3.8 PPI: Continued Increase in Spot Price of Copper - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 673 yuan per ton, down from the previous value of 682 yuan per ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 61 US dollars per barrel, down from the previous value of 62 US dollars per barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 12,473 US dollars per ton, up from the previous value of 12,088 US dollars per ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,953 US dollars per ton, up from the previous value of 2,916 US dollars per ton [73]. 3.9 Transportation: Increase in the Number of Executed Flights - The passenger flow of the subway in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.97 million person - times, down from the previous value of 39.96 million person - times; the number of domestic executed flights is 12,548, up from the previous value of 12,353 [81]. 3.10 Inventory: Continuous Decline in Soda Ash Inventory - The soda ash inventory is 1.407 million tons, down from the previous value of 1.469 million tons [89]. 3.11 Financing: Credit Bond Financing Turns from Positive to Negative - The net financing of local government bonds in the week is 17.4 billion yuan, up from the previous value of - 3.2 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is - 61.7 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 40.8 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate is 0.88%, down from the previous value of 0.93%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.75%, down from the previous value of - 0.70% [100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency fundamental data from December 22, 2025, to December 28, 2025. The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is stable, but the year - on - year increase has narrowed, and the long - short signal of interest - rate bonds has been adjusted down. Most sub - indices show changes in growth rates, including narrowing year - on - year increases or expanding decreases [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.3 points (previous value: 129.2 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is adjusted down, with a signal factor of 3.2% (previous value: 3.4%) [9]. 3.2 Production:开工率多数回落 (Most Operating Rates Decline) - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.8 (previous value: 127.7), with a year - on - year increase of 4.9 points (previous value: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. Operating rates such as electric furnace, polyester, semi - tire, full - tire, PTA, and PX have changed, with most showing a decline [9][11][16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales:商品房成交面积小幅上升 (Slight Increase in Commercial Housing Transaction Area) - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 40.7 (previous value: 40.8), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.5 points (previous value: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline has expanded. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 41.4 million square meters (previous value: 34.9 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.2% (previous value: 1.7%) [9][11][29]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment:石油沥青开工率回升 (Recovery of Asphalt Operating Rate) - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.0 (previous value: 122.1), with a year - on - year increase of 8.3 points (previous value: 8.5 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The operating rate of asphalt is 31.3% (previous value: 27.6%) [9][11][39]. 3.5 Export:运价指数小幅上行 (Slight Increase in Freight Rate Index) - The export high - frequency index is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a year - on - year increase of 0.3 points (previous value: 0.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The CCFI index is 1146.7 points (previous value: 1124.7 points), and the RJ/CRB index is 300.6 points (previous value: 293.9 points) [9][11][46]. 3.6 Consumption:日均电影票房回升 (Recovery of Daily Average Movie Box Office) - The consumption high - frequency index is 121.1 (previous value: 121.1), with a year - on - year increase of 3.3 points (previous value: 3.4 points), and the year - on - year increase has narrowed. The daily average movie box office is 10,811 million yuan (previous value: 9,836 million yuan) [9][11][56]. 3.7 CPI:水果、鸡肉价格上涨 (Increase in Fruit and Chicken Prices) - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.6 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [10][11][63]. 3.8 PPI:铜铝现货、原油价格上涨 (Increase in Copper, Aluminum Spot, and Crude Oil Prices) - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 12,088 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,739 US dollars/ton), the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,916 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,855 US dollars/ton), and the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 62 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 60 US dollars/barrel) [10][11][69]. 3.9 Transportation:客运量全面上涨 (Comprehensive Increase in Passenger Volume) - The transportation high - frequency index is 133.9 (previous value: 133.7), with a year - on - year increase of 11.0 points (previous value: 11.0 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities is 3,905 million person - times (previous value: 3,863 million person - times), the highway logistics freight rate index is 1052 points (previous value: 1051 points), and the number of domestic flights is 12,353 (previous value: 12,172) [10][11][80]. 3.10 Inventory:纯碱库存小幅回落 (Slight Decline in Soda Ash Inventory) - The inventory high - frequency index is 163.7 (previous value: 163.6), with a year - on - year increase of 7.4 points (previous value: 7.4 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The inventory days of PTA are 3.6 days (previous value: 3.8 days), and the soda ash inventory is 146.9 million tons (previous value: 151.6 million tons) [10][11][87]. 3.11 Financing:地方债融资由正转负 (Local Government Bond Financing Turns Negative) - The financing high - frequency index is 245.9 (previous value: 245.2), with a year - on - year increase of 30.9 points (previous value: 30.9 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local government bonds is - 3200 million yuan (previous value: 28100 million yuan), and the net financing of credit bonds is 40800 million yuan (previous value: 57500 million yuan) [10][11][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points (previous value: 129.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points (previous increase: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [2][10]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.7 (previous value: 127.7), with a week - on - week increase of 5.0 points (previous increase: 5.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 40.8 (previous value: 41.0), with a week - on - week decrease of 6.4 points (previous decrease: 6.4 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.2), with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 points (previous increase: 8.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.7 (previous value: 143.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.4 points (previous increase: 0.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the high - frequency index of consumption is 121.1 (previous value: 121.0), with a week - on - week increase of 3.4 points (previous increase: 3.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. - In terms of prices, the month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: - 0.1%); the month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.2%) [2][11]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 163.6 (previous value: 163.4), with a week - on - week increase of 7.4 points (previous increase: 7.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The high - frequency transportation index is 133.7 (previous value: 133.4), with a week - on - week increase of 11.0 points (previous increase: 10.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The high - frequency financing index is 245.2 (previous value: 244.6), with a week - on - week increase of 30.9 points (previous increase: 30.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and its sub - items are built [9]. - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 129.2 points, with a week - on - week increase of 6.2 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded [2][10]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Rises - The current electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 60.3%); the polyester operating rate is 88.9% (previous value: 88.9%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.4% (previous value: 71.6%); the full - tire operating rate is 64.1% (previous value: 64.1%); the PTA operating rate is 73.8% (previous value: 73.8%); the PX operating rate is 89.2% (previous value: 89.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 42.4 tons (previous value: 43.9 tons) [16]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Recovers - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the current week is 34.9 million square meters (previous value: 27.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 1.7% (previous value: 1.9%) [27]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Fluctuates Narrowly - The current asphalt operating rate is 27.6% (previous value: 27.8%) [42]. 3.5 Exports: Freight Rate Index Rises Slightly - The current CCFI index is 1124.7 points (previous value: 1118.1 points); the RJ/CRB index is 293.9 points (previous value: 300.3 points) [44]. 3.6 Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Declines - The daily average movie box office is 98.36 million yuan (previous value: 171.46 million yuan) [53]. 3.7 CPI: Fruit Prices Rise - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.5 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.9 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.5 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [60]. 3.8 PPI: Kerosene Prices Fall, Copper and Aluminum Spot Prices Continue to Rise - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 719 yuan/ton (previous value: 761 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 60 US dollars/barrel (previous value: 62 US dollars/barrel); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 11,739 US dollars/ton (previous value: 11,692 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,855 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2,849 US dollars/ton) [64]. 3.9 Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the current week is 38.63 million person - times (previous value: 39.83 million person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (previous value: 1052 points); the number of domestic flights is 12,172 (previous value: 12,137) [75]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases Significantly - The current electrolytic aluminum inventory is 190,000 tons (previous value: 167,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 151,600 tons (previous value: 149,800 tons) [82]. 3.11 Financing: Local Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local bonds in the week is 28.1 billion yuan (previous value: 62.3 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 57.5 billion yuan (previous value: 73.2 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank draft rediscount rate is 0.91% (previous value: 0.84%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.72% (previous value: - 0.79%) [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The Guosheng Fixed - income Fundamental High - frequency Index is stable, with the current period at 129.0 points (previous value 128.9 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 6.2 points. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with the signal factor at 3.6% (previous value 3.7%) [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index - The Guosheng Fixed - income Fundamental High - frequency Index is stable. The current index is 129.0 points, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.6, with a year - on - year increase of 5.1 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. PTA开工率 increased to 73.8% from the previous 71.9% [2][10][16]. Real Estate Sales - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 41.1, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.3 points, and the decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased to 30.20,000 square meters from the previous 31.20,000 square meters [2][10][26]. Infrastructure Investment - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.3, with a year - on - year increase of 8.9 points, and the growth rate narrows. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt increased slightly to 27.9% from the previous 27.8% [2][10][40]. Exports - The export high - frequency index is 143.7, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6 points, and the growth rate narrows. The CCFI index decreased slightly to 1114.9 points from the previous 1121.8 points [2][10][42]. Consumption - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.8, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. The average daily box office of movies increased to 26,095 million yuan from the previous 15,036 million yuan [2][10][51]. CPI - The month - on - month CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value 0.0%). The prices of vegetables and white - striped chickens increased slightly. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables rose to 5.9 yuan/kg from the previous 5.8 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens rose to 17.8 yuan/kg from the previous 17.5 yuan/kg [2][10][58]. PPI - The month - on - month PPI forecast is 0.2% (previous value 0.1%). The spot prices of copper and aluminum continued to rise. The LME copper spot settlement price increased to 11,428 US dollars/ton from the previous 10,917 US dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum spot settlement price increased to 2,858 US dollars/ton from the previous 2,803 US dollars/ton [2][10][62]. Transportation - The transportation high - frequency index is 133.2, with a year - on - year increase of 10.8 points, and the growth rate expands. However, the logistics performance declined. The metro passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased to 38.71 million person - times from the previous 39.97 million person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index decreased to 1053 points from the previous 1066 points, and the number of domestic flights decreased to 12,359 flights from the previous 12,484 flights [3][11][74]. Inventory - The inventory high - frequency index is 163.3, with a year - on - year increase of 7.6 points, and the growth rate remains unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to rise to 163,000 tons from the previous 147,000 tons [3][11][81]. Financing - The financing high - frequency index is 244.0, with a year - on - year increase of 30.7 points, and the growth rate expands. However, the financing of local government bonds and credit bonds declined. The net financing of local government bonds decreased to 60.5 billion yuan from the previous 325.9 billion yuan, and the net financing of credit bonds decreased to 58 billion yuan from the previous 120.7 billion yuan [3][11][93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.8 points (previous value: 128.7 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 6.1 points. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 3.9% (previous value: 4.1%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 5.2 points [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 41.4 (previous value: 41.5), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points, and the decline rate remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.5, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged at 9.1 points; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.6, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows from 0.9 points to 0.8 points; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.7, remaining unchanged from the previous value, and the year - on - year increase narrows from 3.5 points to 3.3 points [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly环比 forecast of CPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly环比 forecast of PPI is 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%) [2][9]. - The high - frequency index of inventory is 163.1 (previous value: 163.0), with a year - on - year increase of 7.8 points, and the increase rate narrows [2][10]. - The high - frequency index of transportation is 132.8 (previous value: 132.6), with a year - on - year increase of 10.6 points, and the increase rate expands [2][10]. - The high - frequency index of financing is 242.8 (previous value: 242.2), with a year - on - year increase of 30.6 points, and the increase rate expands [2][10]. Summary by Directory Total Index - The fundamental high - frequency index is stable. Based on the statistical system, a high - frequency data system covering overall, production, demand, prices, financing, etc. is constructed, and the Guosheng fixed - income fundamental high - frequency index and sub - items are built [8]. Production - The electric furnace operating rate increases to 61.5% (previous value: 60.9%); the polyester operating rate is 89.7% (previous value: 89.0%); the semi - tire operating rate is 71.1% (previous value: 73.7%); the full - tire operating rate is 61.3% (previous value: 64.5%); the PTA operating rate is 74.3% (previous value: 76.2%); the PX operating rate is 89.4% (previous value: 90.2%); the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 56.4 tons (previous value: 55.2 tons) [15]. Real Estate Sales - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increases to 28.5 million square meters (previous value: 22.9 million square meters); the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 0.5% (previous value: 10.1%) [26]. Infrastructure Investment - The operating rate of petroleum asphalt continues to decline, reaching 24.8% (previous value: 29.0%) [43]. Exports - The CCFI index rebounds to 1122.8 points (previous value: 1094.0 points); the RJ/CRB index is 299.5 points (previous value: 303.9 points) [45]. Consumption - The average daily box office of movies rises to 83890,000 yuan (previous value: 54440,000 yuan) [54]. CPI - Food prices decline comprehensively. The average wholesale price of pork is 17.9 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.1 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.8 yuan/kg); the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from the previous value); the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.8 yuan/kg) [61]. PPI - The spot prices of copper and aluminum decline. The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 834 yuan/ton (previous value: 832 yuan/ton); the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 64 US dollars/barrel (unchanged from the previous value); the spot settlement price of LME copper is 10741 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10841 US dollars/ton); the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2775 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2855 US dollars/ton) [64]. Transportation - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities slightly declines to 40140,000 person - times (previous value: 40820,000 person - times); the highway logistics freight rate index is 1051 points (unchanged from the previous value); the number of domestic flights is 12533 (previous value: 12347) [76]. Inventory - The electrolytic aluminum inventory increases to 141,000 tons (previous value: 122,000 tons); the soda ash inventory is 1648,000 tons (previous value: 1707,000 tons) [83]. Financing - The spread between bill and certificate of deposit narrows. The net financing of local government bonds is 126.7 billion yuan (previous value: 242.8 billion yuan); the net financing of credit bonds is 141.6 billion yuan (previous value: 31.4 billion yuan); the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill transfer discount rate is 0.68% (previous value: 0.60%); the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 0.95% (previous value: - 1.02%) [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of fixed - income fundamentals from November 10th to November 16th, 2025. The overall high - frequency index of fundamentals is stable, with changes in various sub - indices such as production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing. For example, the industrial production high - frequency index shows a narrowing increase, the real estate sales high - frequency index has a stable decline, and the infrastructure investment high - frequency index has an expanding increase [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.7 points (previous value: 128.6 points), with a week - on - week increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with a signal factor of 4.1% (previous value: 4.4%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5, with a week - on - week increase of 5.2 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The electric furnace and PX operating rates increase. The electric furnace operating rate is 60.9% (previous value: 59.6%), and the PX operating rate is 90.5% (previous value: 89.9%) [1][9][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales - The high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 41.5, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.2 points), and the year - on - year decline remains unchanged. The transaction land premium rate drops. The 100 - large - city transaction land premium rate is 1.4% (previous value: 3.6%) [1][9][28]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment - The high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.5, with a week - on - week increase of 9.1 points (previous value: 9.0 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt continues to decline, with a current operating rate of 29.0% (previous value: 29.7%) [1][9][42]. 3.5 Export - The high - frequency index of exports is 143.6, with a week - on - week increase of 0.9 points (previous value: 1.0 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The container freight rate index rises continuously. The CCFI index is 1094.0 points (previous value: 1058.2 points) [1][9][44]. 3.6 Consumption - The high - frequency index of consumption is 120.7, with a week - on - week increase of 3.5 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The average daily box office of movies rises, reaching 54410,000 yuan (previous value: 29640,000 yuan) [1][9][54]. 3.7 CPI - The monthly - on - monthly CPI forecast is 0.1% (previous value: 0.1%). The price of white - striped chickens rises slightly, with an average wholesale price of 17.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.6 yuan/kg) [1][9][60]. 3.8 PPI - The monthly - on - monthly PPI forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The spot prices of coal and copper rise slightly. The ex - warehouse price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port is 832 yuan/ton (previous value: 798 yuan/ton), and the LME copper spot settlement price is 10841 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10704 US dollars/ton) [1][9][62]. 3.9 Transportation - The high - frequency index of transportation is 132.6, with a week - on - week increase of 10.5 points (previous value: 10.4 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The highway logistics freight rate index rises slightly, reaching 1051 points (previous value: 1050 points) [2][10][74]. 3.10 Inventory - The high - frequency index of inventory is 163.0, with a week - on - week increase of 7.9 points (previous value: 8.0 points), and the year - on - year increase narrows. The inventory scale of electrolytic aluminum and soda ash increases. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 122,000 tons (previous value: 116,000 tons), and the soda ash inventory is 1,707,000 tons (previous value: 1,703,000 tons) [2][10][82]. 3.11 Financing - The high - frequency index of financing is 242.2, with a week - on - week increase of 30.5 points (previous value: 30.4 points), and the year - on - year increase expands. The net financing of local bonds turns from negative to positive, with a net financing of 242.8 billion yuan (previous value: - 36 billion yuan) [2][10][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency data of Guosheng bond - related fundamentals from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025. It shows that the Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is stable with changes in various sub - indicators. The interest - rate bond long - short signal is adjusted downwards, and different economic aspects such as production, demand, prices, inventory, transportation, and financing present different trends [1][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - The Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 128.6 points (previous value: 128.5 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.0 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The interest - rate bond long - short signal factor is 4.4% (previous value: 4.6%), a decrease of 0.2 percentage points [1][9][11]. 3.2 Production: Electric Furnace Operating Rate Drops - The industrial production high - frequency index is 127.5 points (previous value: 127.4 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.4 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electric furnace operating rate is 59.6% (previous value: 60.9%), a decrease of 1.3 percentage points [1][9][15]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Drops Significantly - The commercial housing sales high - frequency index is 41.7 points (previous value: 41.9 points), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year decrease is expanding. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 18.8 million square meters (previous value: 31.7 million square meters), a decrease of 12.9 million square meters [1][9][29]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Drops - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 122.4 points (previous value: 122.3 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points (previous value: 8.8 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The asphalt operating rate is 29.7% (previous value: 31.5%), a decrease of 1.8 percentage points [1][9][44]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Rise - The export high - frequency index is 143.6 points (previous value: 143.6 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.0 point (previous value: 1.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The CCFI index is 1058.2 points (previous value: 1021.4 points), an increase of 36.8 points [46]. 3.6 Consumption: Average Daily Movie Box Office Drops - The consumption high - frequency index is 120.6 points (previous value: 120.7 points), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.0 point and a year - on - year increase of 3.6 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The average daily movie box office is 29630,000 yuan (previous value: 30900,000 yuan), a decrease of 1270,000 yuan [1][9][55]. 3.7 CPI: Food Prices Rise Slightly Overall - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of pork is 18.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 18.0 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.8 yuan/kg (previous value: 5.6 yuan/kg), the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg (previous value: 7.1 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.6 yuan/kg (previous value: 17.5 yuan/kg) [2][61]. 3.8 PPI: Spot Prices of Copper and Aluminum Drop - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%). The spot settlement price of LME copper is 10704 US dollars/ton (previous value: 10964 US dollars/ton), a decrease of 261 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2859 US dollars/ton (previous value: 2868 US dollars/ton), a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [2][64]. 3.9 Transportation: Transportation High - Frequency Index Rises Steadily - The transportation high - frequency index is 132.4 points (previous value: 132.1 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 10.4 points (previous value: 10.3 points), and the year - on - year increase is expanding. The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39790,000 person - times (previous value: 40550,000 person - times), a decrease of 750,000 person - times; the road logistics freight rate index is 1050 points (previous value: 1049 points), an increase of 0.3 point; the number of domestic flights is 12273 (previous value: 12461), a decrease of 188 [2][76]. 3.10 Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Increases - The inventory high - frequency index is 162.9 points (previous value: 162.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.0 points (previous value: 8.1 points), and the year - on - year increase is narrowing. The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 11.6 million tons (previous value: 8.5 million tons), an increase of 3.1 million tons; the soda ash inventory is 170.3 million tons (previous value: 169.7 million tons), an increase of 0.6 million tons [2][82]. 3.11 Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Drops Significantly - The financing high - frequency index is 241.6 points (previous value: 241.0 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 30.4 points (previous value: 30.4 points), and the year - on - year increase remains unchanged. The net financing of local bonds is - 36 billion yuan (previous value: 178 billion yuan), a decrease of 213.9 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 92 billion yuan (previous value: - 12.6 billion yuan), an increase of 104.6 billion yuan [2][94].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The GSHS fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with the current index at 128.5 points, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 points and a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with the signal factor at 4.5% [2][10]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.4, with the year - on - year increase remaining unchanged. In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales declines, the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment increases with an expanding growth rate, the high - frequency index of exports increases with a narrowing growth rate, and the high - frequency index of consumption increases with a narrowing growth rate. In terms of prices, both CPI and PPI monthly - on - monthly forecasts are 0.0%. The high - frequency index of inventory increases with a narrowing growth rate, the high - frequency index of transportation increases with an expanding growth rate, and the high - frequency index of financing increases with an expanding growth rate [2][10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index is Stable - The GSHS fundamental high - frequency index for the current period is 128.5 points (previous value: 128.4 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points (previous value: 6.0 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds is downgraded, with the signal factor at 4.5% (previous value: 4.7%) [2][10]. Production: PTA开工率小幅上行 - The electric furnace operating rate is 60.9%, the polyester operating rate is 89.7%, the semi - tire operating rate is 73.4%, the full - tire operating rate is 65.3%, the PTA operating rate is 78.4%, the PX operating rate is 87.1%, and the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 56.0 tons [16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Increases - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 30.8 million square meters, and the land premium rate for transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 3.8% [28]. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Increases Slightly - The asphalt operating rate is 31.5% [44]. Exports: Export Container Freight Index Increases - The CCFI index is 1021.4 points, and the RJ/CRB index is 300.9 points [46]. Consumption: Daily Average Movie Box Office Continues to Decline - The daily average movie box office is 30880000 yuan [55]. CPI: Pork Wholesale Price Increases Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 18.0 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.6 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.5 yuan/kg [63]. PPI: Copper and Aluminum Spot Prices Continue to Rise - The closing price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (from Shanxi) is 770 yuan/ton, the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 65 US dollars/barrel, the spot settlement price of LME copper is 10964 US dollars/ton, and the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2868 US dollars/ton [70]. Transportation: Number of Flights Decreases Slightly - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 40000000 person - times, the highway logistics freight rate index is 1049 points, and the number of domestic flights is 12461 [81]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Continues to Decline - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 8.5 tons, and the soda ash inventory is 169.7 tons [87]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Increases Slightly - The net financing of local bonds is 178 billion yuan, the net financing of credit bonds is - 12.6 billion yuan, the 6M state - owned stock silver bill rediscount rate is 0.47%, and the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate is - 1.16% [99].